Brady Hoke's Time as a Macrifice

Submitted by CRex on
The purpose of this diary is simple, to track Hoke’s record against BCS team. One of the perks of being in the MAC is getting called in to BCS schools early in the year to be ground into a fine powder by more powerful teams and offered up to the Revenue Gods as Macrific. So I decided to chart how Hoke did against various BCS Teams. One thing you might remember about playing MAC Schools is that by the Fourth Quarter those of us still in the student section are normally going “Whoa we have a SIXTH string quarterback?” as we watch some guy we never heard of put up Heisman like numbers. In an attempt to normalize for garbage time points I’ve also done my best to note games where the BCS Team was comfortably ahead, put it on cruise control and let Ball State score some pity points. 2003 Team: Missouri Result: 35-7 Loss Ugly slow death by Ball State here. First quarter ended 7-7. In the second Mizzou got 14 unanswered and then 7 in each of the final two quarters. Ball State’s only points came off a 4 yard drive so the offense did nothing. Team: Pittsburgh Result: 42-21 Loss The first half was relatively even. No points for anyone in the first. 14 each in the second quarter (44 and 54 yard drives for Pitt, 46 and 80 for Ball State). Coming out of half though Pitt made adjustments and got 21 in the 3rd. 7 each in 4th, but Ball State’s last 7 came in the closing minutes of the game when Pitt was likely checked out. Team: Boston College Result: 53-29 Loss The first starts out decently enough. 80 yard drive by Ball State and a 59 yard drive by BC. BC also gets a punt return for 14 total. Then just a steady steamroll by BC, 11,14 and 14 in the last three quarters. Ball State manages to put together some drives of decent length but it isn’t enough. Team: Not That Miami (But Ranked #15 at the time) Result: 49-3 Loss The only ranked team Ball State played. Total ass kicking / incestuous Macrifice Result For 2003: Hey Not Bad For a MAC Program: 0 Macrifice: 4 (counting the loss to ranked ntM despite them being in the MAC as well) 2004 Team: Boston College Result: 19-11 BC leads 12-11 at half. In the second Ball State gives up one 53 yard drive and that seals the deal for BC. The 2004 edition of BC finished 9-3 and beat UNC in the Tire Bowl. BC beat PSU 21-7 the week after playing Ball State. Team: Purdue Result: 59-7 Loss The 7 points came in the 4th when Purdue was likely in celebration mode. Team: Missouri Result: 48-0 Loss Ugly. Result To Date: Hey Not Bad For a MAC Program: 1 Macrifice: 6 (I almost feel like I should count Mizzou and Purdue as double) 2005 Team: Iowa Result: 56-0 Loss Kirk Ferentz cruises. Team: Auburn Result: 63-3 Loss Hey I think I know what made Hoke decide to hire Al Borges. Team: Boston College Result: 38-0 Loss BC gets 14 in the first and then off to the races in the 3rd and 4th. Note: Ball State had 7 players suspended during Iowa and Auburn for NCAA infractions. Result To Date: Hey Not Bad For a MAC Program: 1 Beatdowns: 9 2006 Team: Indiana Result: 24-23 Loss 23-7 Indiana at half. Ball State gets 14 in the 3rd and manages to make a game out of it. Indiana started their second string QB but ended up playing their 3rd string for the entire game due to the suckitude of the 2nd stringer (he was pulled after 6 players). Thus this is a push for scoring purposes. Indiana is a cellar dweller to begin with and even worse once you start running the QB depth chart. Push Team: Purdue Result: 38-28 Loss 21-10 at half, and 31-13 at the end of the 3rd. So it looks like Ball State kind of put up a fight in the first half, Purdue makes adjustments and seals in the 3rd. A FG in the 3rd for Ball State and then 15 garbage points in the 4th. So no credit even though the final score was one two scores different. Team: North Dakota State Result: 29-24 Loss We know how this one feels don’t we? Team: Michigan Result: 34-26 24-12 at half. 7 each in the 3rd and Ball State outscores 7-3 in the 4th. We played Henne the entire game. Now this has long been a question mark game for me. I was there and I really felt like Carr was being nice to his former assistant or else was having trouble finding the gas pedal for some odd reason. This was our 11-1 season and our team crushed everyone else. I’m going to give Hoke credit here and call it a not that bad win even though to this day I feel like Carr was simply too nice to go for the kill against his former Associate Head Coach. Result To Date: Not That Bad For a MAC: 2 Push: 1 Macrifice: 10 The Horror (MAC Version): 1 2007 Team: Navy Result: 34-31 OT Win Competitive the whole way through, no last second rally when the other team went to sleep and the let other creep back into it. Team: Nebraska Result: 41-40 Loss This was in Nebraska’s shitty period but even so Nebraska needed to outscore Ball State in the 4th 13-9 to get win. A definite Not That Bad. Team: Indiana Result: 38-20 Loss Indiana was in its normally sucky mode and desperate for a win to be Bowl Eligible. They got the win. Overall a decent game by Ball State but you don’t get credit for losing to Indiana by three scores. Result To Date: Not That Bad For a MAC Program: 4 Push: 1 Macrifice: 11 Tim Brewster Nods Knowingly: 1 2008 Team: Navy Result: 38-25 Win Someone get Navy on the schedule. Team: Indiana Result: 42-20 Win Indiana managed a total of 3 wins this year (Western Kentucky, Murray State and drum roll #22 ranked Northwestern [ouch]). Still a win over a BCS Program counts, plus I’ve been mean to Ball State so far so I’ll give them another bump. Team: Tulsa Result: 45-13 Loss Ball State did not score in the second half. You can argue they’re disappointed after losing to Buffalo in the conference championship and getting shunted off to the GMAC Bowl or whatever you want, but they still got punked by a C-USA Team. What CRex giveth for a Win over Indiana he taketh away for utter destruction at the hands of Tulsa. Actually no wait he won’t, since upon closer inspection Hoke had already bailed for SDSU. Result For Career: Not That Bad For a MAC Program: 5 Push: 1 Macrifice: 11 I’d Talk Shit, But I have No Room To Talk: 1 At the end of the day I think the examiners bias here determines how you view these. One thing I’ve heard brought up constantly on the boards is that part of Hoke’s record can be explaining by the fact that he was forced to play at least 3 teams ever year that had access to better resources than he did. Overall he comes out as 5-11-1 and a WTFOMGDIVISIONIIBBQ loses thrown in the hell of it. If you don’t like Hoke you’re predisposed to lean in the direction of “Wow look at those losses to Purdue, Missouri, Auburn and Boston College. If you like him you look at the 5 not that bad ones and the Push and cite them. My personal take away from all of this is that whenever I hear Hoke’s record tossed out I’m not going to panic and mentally spot him a few more wins. If he’d Big Ten caliber recruits and facilities maybe some of those almost wins turn into wins. It’s hard to read these tea leaves though, for example in 2003 he finished off the first quarter tied up 7-7 before Missouri took care of business. Finishes the first half tied with Pitt that year but then Pitt pulls away in the second. So either Hoke was ready for Missouri/Pitt and his MAC caliber players simply wore down or else Missouri and Pitt weren't taking Ball State seriously and spent a quarter or two fumbling around trying to find the gas pedal. If you like Hoke you’ll likely say his scheme managed to hold it together for at least a while. If you don’t like him you’re more likely to claim the other team just never bothered to shift it into gear. Thus I’m not going to try to take much data from this, but I’ll post this in case anyone wants to find a use for this or simply for education purposes. For example that Auburn beatdown definitely helps explain why Hoke went hard after Borges and brought him along.

Comments

Steve Sprague

January 12th, 2011 at 10:05 PM ^

Thanks for pulling this information together.  Other than the MAC version of The Horror it shakes out as I'd expect.  I'm pro-Hoke so I definitely put a positive spin on it.  It is nice to have some numbers to support the theory.

Also worth pointing out is that Hoke was coaching Ball State, a team more often found in the bottom half of the conference.  If Hoke had these results at Central or Marshall I would be more disturbed.  Ball State's only appearance in a MAC championship game came with Hoke at the helm.

trussll12

January 13th, 2011 at 12:56 AM ^

Ball State won a MAC title under Hoke's predecessor, Bill Lynch (the year prior to the MAC splitting into divisions).

In Hoke's sixth year, he got Ball State to a MAC championship game, ranked #12 nationally at the time.  His team lost 42-24 to an unranked Buffalo team coached by Turner Gill.  Gill had a 20-30 record at Buffalo, and is now 3-9 as a coach is a BCS conference (Kansas).

jhackney

January 12th, 2011 at 10:10 PM ^

If you watch the TCU vs SDSU game from this year, you can see SDSU getting blown out to at one point 35-14 I think. At first glance without looking I thought TCU was giving up garbage points. While I understand that may be true, TCU might have let up their guard too much. SDSU made it 40-35 with a little bit more than four minutes left in the game. Regardless of actually how close it was, they didn't give up. Our team last year once giving up a big play or getting in a hefty hole to dig out of, seemed to become deflated. In all the highlights I saw (goaztecs on You Tube), they had a niver give up attitude to them throughout the game and never thought they were out of it.

So maybe since the friction has cooled and there will be less distractions, a positive "in every game" feel? *

*Especially if Denard stays.

CRex

January 12th, 2011 at 10:22 PM ^

It's all the million dollar question. Did the comeback come because... 1. The winning team is easing off / going to sleep. 2. The other coach suddenly had the light bulb come on and went "Hey if I do X, Y, and Z I'll shut those guys down" and thus the comeback is due to his skill at in game adjustments. 3. Braylon said "F that, I'm losing to State!" and started catching everything (including a 747 flying over the stadium). I'd say your right and the biggest metric for next year is to be clearly dead in the water by half time against ranked teams. Hoke's most tangible positive appears to be player development and motivation so I want to see those come into play early on.

jhackney

January 13th, 2011 at 1:27 PM ^

I think it was a combination of all three of your theories. He seems to be a great motivator in my E-pinion. He had mostly everyone pumped up after his first press conference. I also think in order to score when you weren't before, adjustments must be made. This is true unless they were playing sloppy and just cleaned it up. The TCU game kind of reminded me of when Michigan was down to Minnesota 35-7(?) in the 4th quarter to come back and win 38-35. When did garbage points start becoming real points?

After watching some of the film on SDSU vs any opponent, I was excited to see that not once did they give up. It seemed too many times, maybe because of youth or whatever, we gave up. MSU, osu, Wisky, and Miss St. to name the ones off the top of my head. The only one I can think of where we fought back was maybe PSU after going into the half down 28-10, but thanks to a anemic defense, we couldn't do it.

Dewnya

January 12th, 2011 at 10:57 PM ^

After hearing Hoke's press conference today I have no idea why people continue to degrade him. He is exactly what we need. A man who understand the passion and tradition. Give him a chance before you tear him to shreds...he will be just fine and personally I think he has the character and the fight we need to get this program back into shape. 

erik_t

January 12th, 2011 at 11:21 PM ^

Not to be positive or negative on the hire... but you base your predictions on future coaching competency on a single press conference? Really?

 

Too many Brandonian newbs for me to feel much confidence in any new posters right now.

DrewandBlue

January 12th, 2011 at 11:07 PM ^

all day.  The bottom line is none of those numbers really mean a whole lot.  His record, point margins etc...  There are too many variables that impinge on every contest you listed. 

Example:  if you look at our defense 10 years from now and see the stats; you would not get an accurate picture.  Injuries and freshmen played a major role in the bad stats.  Full strength, with some experience would have made a huge difference.  Now I understand vicarious liability, but that can't be fully blamed on the coach.  Especially since Hoke's short tenure at each program you named.  My point is when we go back and look at records; you must take into consideration the variables.

Nice research though...but take it for what it's worth.   I'll go with the former players and staff that believe in him.  I like the fact that both Harbaughs are outright supporting the guy and his own press conference.  He has a National Title with our program.  The player's respect the man and that will go a long way with the talent we bring in.   

LatinForLiar

January 13th, 2011 at 1:29 PM ^

While there are certainly a lot of variables, that doesn't mean you throw the record out the window. After all, the noise should average out after a period of time (unless someone is just really unlucky). We can slice it lots of different ways, but the fact is that the guy has an overall LOSING record as a head coach. While people can get pumped up all they want by a press-conference, football games are won on the field. I, for one am afraid that we just hired our very own Bill Stewart-someone the players love and who talks a good game, but who just can't cut it as a head coach at this level.  

bjk

January 13th, 2011 at 3:07 AM ^

that M was within a score at the half in many '08 and later eventual 20+-point beatdowns at the hands of PSU, OSU, Ill, etc. It led me to wonder what the difference in the halves was; adjustments, depth of playbook, etc. It taught me that being within a score of the other team at the half doesn't necessarily mean you are competitive with them. It still intrigues me that M was that close in so many games where we eventually got pounded.

Huntington Wolverine

January 13th, 2011 at 9:41 AM ^

Note: Ball State had 7 players suspended during Iowa and Auburn for NCAA infractions.

Anyone know the story here?  Was this under Hoke's watch and did he have any role in it?  I would hope not but it would be nice to know for sure.