Unverified Voracity Is Not Eating The Lemon

Submitted by Brian on January 30th, 2012 at 12:01 PM

This could be going better. I was really thinking there'd be a Hello post yesterday. Instead, bupkis. Armani Reeves sticks with his buddy and Alex Kozan commits to Iowa. Michigan's 50-50 shots are coming up tails. With Sam Grant headed to Oklahoma, even their better than 50-50 shots are coming up tails.

Big deal? Somewhat. It's not a huge deal to downgrade from a 3/4 star type like Kozan to a sleeper three star like new DT hotness Willie Henry*. Losing Reeves and having Yuri Wright go off the board** because of various tweets about organisms (not those organisms) does leave corner a little dodgy, especially if you look at 5'8" Cass Tech corners skeptically these days. The depth chart looks fine there, though.

OL and TE not so much. Diamond is a huge priority now and if Chris Muller looks like he might shake free from Rutgers (survey says… probably not, but not out of the question) I would hop on that rather than vacate a bunch of scholarships. Michigan has five more slots and looks like they'll fill two or three from Henry/Diamond. Insert extreme confusion about Arnett situation here.

Along with Kozan, Iowa's getting guys from eight-man football who have commit posts begin…

Your average Iowan has probably never heard of Tabor, Iowa or the Fremont-Mills Community School District. Hell, they probably aren’t even aware that there are counties named Fremont or Mills.

That's Nate Meier, a running back/MLB who will either be Chad Greenway or a shiftless hobo in five years depending on which side of the ball he ends up on. The point: no one in the division is recruiting at Hoke's level and with a huge focus on getting character kids, eventually that's going to pay off.

*[Who is not the surprise I was talking about in an earlier post, FWIW. I think that is off the table now; not sure what changed but Henry certainly seems like a one for one drop in for mystery guy. Most likely scenario: they watched Henry's film just now and veered towards him over mystery guy.]

**[LEMON BET STATUS! since every post about Wright's situation ostentatiously mentions Michigan's withdrawal from his recruitment, it is void. The disbelief was that a player from NJ would choose to go to Colorado over Michigan; Wright basically had no choice.

Also: no, Yuri Wright did not get expelled for some frickin' tweets. That does not happen. Similarly, Michigan did not drop the kid for some frickin' tweets. Put the pieces together and you have something like Stonum. The relatively minor thing was the last straw. This is entirely speculation.]

Bye week hockey. Another chaotic weekend in college hockey saw Bowling Green win(!) and UMD come out of a weekend against Michigan Tech on the short end of things. Tech is now .500 on the year and 9-7-2 in the WCHA. Mel Pearson: I be like dang.

Anyway, when the dust cleared Michigan blipped down to seventh in the Pairwise and sixth in the CCHA, but it's not all that bad:

Rk Team W L T SO Pts. Games GB
1 Ferris State 11 6 3 1 37 20 -
2 Western Michigan 10 7 3 3 36 20 1/3
3 Miami 11 9 2 1 36 22 1 1/3
  Ohio State 10 7 5 1 36 22 1 1/3
  Notre Dame 10 7 3 0 33 20 1 1/3
6 Michigan 9 7 4 1 32 20 1 2/3
  Lake Superior 9 9 4 4 35 22 1 2/3
8 Michigan State 8 9 3 2 29 20 2 2/3
9 Northern Michigan 7 8 5 2 28 20 3
10 Alaska 6 12 4 2 24 22 4 2/3
11 Bowling Green 3 13 4 3 16 20 7

They are a point from a massive n-way tie for third. The schedule doesn't look that intimidating anymore, with series against #3, #8, #9, and 11, though of course there's little difference between 2-9 in the league.

What if we look at goal differential?

Team GF-GA
Michigan 13
Miami 12
Western Michigan 9
Ohio State 6
Ferris State 5
Notre Dame 5
Michigan State 4
Lake Superior -2
Northern Michigan -7
Alaska -10
Bowling Green -35

Michigan is #1 by a second ENG against OSU and faces #2, #7, #9, and #11. Suddenly things are manageable. After this weekend they'll be exceedingly so. Anything better than a split against Miami and they're rolling to the finish.

As for the Pairwise, pay no attention to the drop. Lowell, BC, and Ferris are ahead by RPI shavings. A collapsing OSU is ahead by a COP shaving. If Michigan plays like they deserve a one seed down the stretch they'll get it. The target number of wins to enter the CCHA playoffs as a top seed is six, which is very doable: sweep terrible BG and one other weekend, split the other two.

The only truly annoying comparison is versus CC, which overcomes a massive RPI gap by playing fewer TUCs (both teams are two games above .500) and beating Union instead of losing to them. Root against the Tigers from here on out.

Negative recruiting: not so much. Amara Darboh:

"A lot of the other coaches, when I would talk to them, they’d ask, 'What other schools you looking at?'" four-star Iowa receiver Amara Darboh said. "And then then they would talk badly about the schools, or bash where I just went.

"But, not Michigan. I don’t know why they didn’t, but I like that they didn’t, and it says a lot about them."

Wormley, Reeves, and Pipkins also vouch for that. And Darboh's guardian brings up Hoke's masterful self control during a key moment:

Dan Schaefer, legal guardian of Darboh, said he was highly skeptical of Michigan because of the failures of the Rich Rodriguez era and the instability of a coaching change. Two things changed his mind.

First, it was Hoke's measured handling of struggling punter Will Hagerup in the Ohio State game last season, which was Darboh's official visit.

"He wasn’t overreacting," Schaefer said. "Like, the punter missed the snap. But (Hoke) didn’t go over there and get in his business right away. I liked that. It gave me confidence he could handle Amara."

I was uttering every cussed cuss I knew and inventing six new ones as this went down. Mienke also has a story on Darboh's turbulent past. Turbulent as in "caught in a civil war."

'98 Wisconsin. Part of Michigan's recovery from that ugly 0-2 start ("Cross is boss! Cross is boss!"):

Via Wolverine Historian, obviously. You can also check out '83 Ohio State.

Well done, America. Texas hates Craig James:

Public Policy Polling just came out of the field with news that only 2 percent of Texas Republicans will vote for him for U.S. Senate. It's early yet, but if Republican political consultant Brian Mayes is correct, 2 percent is about where we should expect him to end up. In the interests of disclosure, I'm working for one of the Democrats in the race, and we aren't concerned with James in the slightest.

"I'm surprised it's that high," said Mayes. "If you ask the average Republican voter... he's remembered for the scandal at SMU and using his position at ESPN to get a wildly popular coach fired. He is by far one of the most hated men in West Texas."

Money quote:

"It's not that people in West Texas don't like him," said Mayes. "It's that nobody likes him."

The only downside to this is ESPN will rehire him on the Stephen A. Smith principle: ESPN hates us as much as America hates Craig James and knows we can't change the channel.


[HT: Blutarsky.]

Let the looting begin. The NCAA has come to a fairly obvious realization in the aftermath of finding out there's an Indiana State:

he NCAA will look this summer at retooling its Division I governance structure amid what some officials say is growing sentiment to further split its top football-playing schools.

Association President Mark Emmert said Sunday he'll appoint a working group to examine the issue, stressing it will focus on "the way in which Division I is organized for the purposes of making decisions" - and not on a competitive format that now groups football programs into bowl and lower-tier championship subdivisions.

IE, Indiana State shouldn't be able to say anything to anyone. Anonymous officials a bit later in the piece suggest Emmert is being coy in public and another split between football programs is at least going to be spitballed.

Anything that gets San Jose State out of I-A is fine by me, but it seems unlikely anything will come to fruition here. If it does, the break should be based on institutional support offered a football team. If it's over X, GTFO. Prediction: if there is a split, eventually those left behind from the current I-A will merge with FCS as it becomes increasingly difficult to tell the two lower divisions apart.

Success with… actually let's just scratch both. Penn State cuts freshman center Peter Alexis from its basketball team, effective at the end of the season. This is described as the result of a… "carefrontation." That is not a word.

Alexis appears to be a good student and has not gotten in any trouble. Two thirds of BSD voters say this is okay even if it was "purely based on his basketball ability."

This is what happens. Q: What is Molk talking about here?

"I don't like it; I don't care about it; it (ticks) me off," Molk said. "It just adds to my anger."

A: Everything.

Also, Molk has to be Michigan's internet-era record holder for most bowdlerized quotes in the newspaper. This story alone has the above plus:

"Missing the Senior Bowl (stinks)."

And then Barwis gets in on it:

"It shows something to the NFL that the guy tore a tendon off a bone and played with a tendon off the bone, and he said, '(Forget) it, I'm going to dominate a game."

Godspeed, Molk.

Etc.: The East side upper deck of Spartan Stadium is "kind of like 1980s Poland," says A Beautiful Day For Football, which I can vouch for since I've been in it three times. If it was just a holding pen for opposing fans it would make sense. It's not. How to tweet at recruits. I'm surprised Kenpom isn't sitting on top of something tall, screaming "COME AT ME BRO" about Wisconsin after the Badgers resurrected their season.

Bob Miller scouts U17 NTDP commits JT Compher, Tyler Motte, and Evan Allen plus fellow 2013 commit Michael Downing. TomVH gets Barwisized. Remember how Ohio State fans were outraged by oversigning? Never mind. Plague of non-caring students extends to MSU.



January 30th, 2012 at 6:04 PM ^

As I'm sure you know (I've seen you post a lot about hockey), the Pairwise is heavily influenced by a small sample size of non-conference games, as it influences not only Common Opponents, but RPI, Head to Head and TUC's as well. Hockey East has the following records out of conference:

BU: 3-2-0, BC: 4-3-0, Maine: 3-1-1, Merrimack: 4-1-2, UMass Lowell: 5-1-0, Providence: 2-4-1, UMass: 4-2-1, Northeastern: 4-0-1, New Hampshire: 3-3-1, Vermont: 3-4-0, which as a conference adds up to 35-19-7, which is damn good. I would imagine that it is thier non-conference record that is driving their Pairwise dominance.


January 30th, 2012 at 8:42 PM ^


CCHA non-conference records: ferris:  6-2-0, miami: 4-2-0, western: 3-3-2, ohio: 4-1-0, lake superior: 5-2-1, notre dame: 5-3-0, michigan: 6-2-0, MSU: 5-2-1, NMU: 5-1-0, alaska: 3-1-0, bgsu: 5-2-1

Total CCHA non-conference records= 47-18-5 divided by 11 schools= avg. record: 4.27-1.64-.45

Hockey East non-conference record= 35-19-7 divided by 10 schools=avg. record 3.5-1.9-.7

You are correct. The CCHA has the better non-conference record. Perhaps it is not non-conference record driving the Hockey East's surge of the Pairwise. The only thing I can think that would fuel this might be that they have a smaller sample size. Since Hockey East have played fewer non-conference games, their games have influenced their opponents RPI less, resulting in higher RPI's compartively to the CCHA's. That or there is some weird TUC stuff or something else going on that I don't really have the energy to look into.