Unverified Voracity Thinks Of The Children

Unverified Voracity Thinks Of The Children Comment Count

Brian February 10th, 2016 at 12:26 PM

Crootin'. Here's a 35-minute video breakdown of the recruiting class from Scout.

Helen Lovejoy, commissioner. Obviously the SEC was going to get fusty about Michigan's plan to practice at IMG over spring break. They did not do so in a way that came off at all plausibly. Shot:

“Our primary reaction [is] that, in the face of the time-demand conversations, we've got one program taking what has been 'free time' away,” Sankey said. “Let's draw a line and say, ‘That's not appropriate.'"

Chaser:

“The net of that is to say the Southeastern Conference is not going to be outpaced in recruiting,” Sankey said. “If the national approach is that we want to have more aggressive summer camps and coaches touring around all summer, then we will not only engage in that behavior, we will certainly engage in that behavior more actively -- probably more effectively than others.”

Shorter Greg Sakey: we are concerned about the kids, but if we don't get our way screw the kids. Par for the course amongst lizard people. This is of course a conference that's completely fine with a baseball schedule that sees Northern teams literally spend a month straight in the South, but don't screw with a man's right to go to South Padre, brah.

Meanwhile, try not to burst out laughing at this one:

Sankey is also concerned Michigan would be at a “site full of prospects run by a business enterprise that has a lot of interests -- but one of those is sports agents. It seems like very much the wrong tone.”

The "wrong tone," says the comissioner of the League of Extraordinary Bagmen. I'm all for people getting whatever money they can out of college athletics but to turn around and wave the rulebook at Michigan's face while crapping on it daily is hypocrisy worthy of… well… a high-ranking NCAA official. I cannot top reality there.

Hello: Bush the Elder? Buzz has been building that Michigan would fill one of its open recruiting/analyst spots with Devin Bush Sr, who built the Flanagan program from nothing into a state champion. That had been constrained to subscription sites until this article:

Multiple sources have told the Miami Herald on Tuesday that Flanagan coach Devin Bush is on the verge of joining the staff at Michigan where three of his Falcons -- son and linebacker Devin Bush Jr. and safeties Devin Gil and Josh Metellus -- have signed.

An announcement is expected next week. Bush is obviously a natural for the spot Chris Partridge vacated when he got bumped up to linebackers coach. The two guys have very similar backgrounds. Both were/are HS head coaches who made previously lagging programs into powers by getting gents to transfer. Partridge was interviewed by the WSJ a few days ago, providing some insight into why his hire was so successful for Michigan's New Jersey recruiting efforts:

How much does your New Jersey background help you land recruits from there?

Shoot, some of these kids I’ve seen play football since the fifth and sixth grade. I know them, I know the guys that have coached them their whole lives, I know similarities in the styles that they play, you know people that know their families. Of course, it gives you an advantage because you’re just so familiar and because they feel comfortable. And ultimately, they know that I’m watching out for them.

Hopefully Bush can have a similar impact in a bigger pond.

Meanwhile Flanagan is set to replace Bush with Pretty Much Devin Bush. DC Stanford Samuels, another Florida State legacy whose son is a major recruit, is expected to get a promotion.

Oversigning, the coda. The oversigning thing doesn't get brought up anymore because people mad about it more or less won. Get The Picture has a list of SEC signees per team before and after the Houston Nutt cap was implemented that shows a big dropoff for the worst offenders:

SEC Average Signing Class Numbers
Team Average Class 2007-11 Average Class 2012-16 Difference
Auburn 30.2 24.2 -6.0
Ole Miss 28.0 24.0 -4.0
Mississippi State 28.0 23.6 -4.4
Alabama 27.2 25.8 -1.4
LSU 26.8 24.4 -2.4
Arkansas 26.6 23.8 -2.8
Kentucky 26.0 25.6 -0.4
South Carolina 25.6 24.4 -1.2
Florida 24.2 24.4 +0.2
Tennessee 24.2 25.4 +1.2
Missouri* 24.2 22.4 -1.8
Texas A&M* 23.8 24.2 +0.4
Georgia 20.8 24.6 +3.8
Vanderbilt 20.2 22.0 +1.8

(He's using that to show that Georgia is now fighting with both arms instead of one.) Even if the LOIs foregone were mostly sign-and-place type deals where a guy who's going to JUCO signs a letter of intent for funsies that's still an improvement since no longer is that guy restricted if he does get eligible—and he isn't signed with a team that doesn't even want him to qualify.

The NCAA should still move to a yearly cap with no limit on overall scholarships to remove the incentive to get rid of a guy entirely.

I thought this was the entire point of dodgeball. If this was the standard for psychologizing folks in my time, whole dang middle school would have been in a line going out the door of the psychologist's office:

Dude didn't dodge the ball. That's the name of the game, man. Can't hold Harbaugh accountable for that unless you're the SEC commissioner.

I want to see his review of Infinite Jest. Harbaugh went on a media tour at the Super Bowl, the highlight of which was this:

"You look like a writer!" Harbaugh says with enthusiasm as we shake hands.

Harbaugh saw a movie about a writer recently, on a flight a couple months back. It was calledThe End of the Tour. He loved it, loved the dialogue. And now he has just one question.

"Was that a real person, David Foster Wallace?"

I don't expect or even want my football coach to know the answer to that question because I expect that people who know the answer to that question are bad coaches. But I do think he should start with a Supposedly Fun Thing I'll Never Do Again because it is the most accessible writing DFW did and that he'll probably think "oh, the NFL" after seeing the title.

Etc.: Shoe not effective when used as gun. Michigan is 6th in the post Signing Day S&P rankings. Austin Davis is tall. Children are not. Harbaugh has no unfinished business in the NFL. Wheatley in the Players' Tribune.

Comments

2017 Recruiting Overview: Defense

2017 Recruiting Overview: Defense Comment Count

Brian February 9th, 2016 at 5:01 PM

Previously: the offense.

Defensive Line

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Joshua Kaindoh is a big-timer at DE

The Need. Defensive tackle is a major priority. Going into 2017 Michigan is down to Mone, Hurst, Dwumfour, and Pallante at a spot where four players are more or less starters these days. Gary can of course fold inside; even so Michigan should be hard after two or three DTs.

End is less of a numerical priority with four or five guys in the past two classes if Reuben Jones and Carlo Kemp have long term futures on the line. I expect that is the case; a couple ends should be expected.

The Prospects. Tackles:

  • NJ DTs Fred Hansard and Corey Bolds are from New Jersey and thus obviously high on Michigan's target list. Despite being a Paramus guy, Bolds is reputed to heavily favor Clemson right now; Hansard is a realistic prospect but a guy who is getting a lot of attention from OSU and the like.
  • UT DT Jay Tufele has an offer and is from an area of the country where Michigan has had some recent success. Oregon has a couple picks on the crystal ball that probably don't mean much.
  • M is trying to get in with five-star TX DT Marvin Wilson but he's a major longshot.

Aaaand that's it right now. This is a bit of a worry, insofar as anything can be a worry in a recruiting class almost a year from signing. Michigan needs two or three guys and has limited priority options right now.

Ends:

  • Instate DE Corey Malone-Hatcher is ranked in the top 200 everywhere and generally expected to end up at M, though ND, OSU, and Alabama are also involved.
  • Five-star FL DE Joshua Kaindoh is originally from Baltimore; he transferred IMG and maintains a top list with a distinctly Midwest flavor. Penn State was an early leader, and these days "Penn State leads" is a big red bullseye for Harbaugh.
  • Five-star FL DE Jarez Parks is actually from Florida and will be a tough pull; Michigan is reruiting him hard all the same.
  • MD DE Chase Young has the full suite of Midwest offers and a few Maryland predictions from the locals. Michigan will be after him; he has given no indication of a leader.

The Projection: Michigan should get Malone-Hatcher; Hansard is an increasingly good bet as OSU has already gotten two DT commits. Past that it's cloudy. Michigan should have a good shot at Kaindoh, especially if Michigan and PSU have the seasons it looks like they will. They'll take two DTs and two DEs.

Linebacker

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Singleton seems familiar somehow

The Need. Michigan got plenty of numbers at linebacker a year ago and can take it easy in this class. They lack top-end prospects, however, so finding a couple potentially elite guys is an important goal for 2017.

The Recruits. This position seems pretty easy to peg. Paramus LB Drew Singleton has been on campus repeatedly; Michigan is a heavy favorite. MI LB Josh Ross is James's younger brother. Michigan is also a heavy favorite with him. Pioneer ATH Antjuan Simmons has offers from the world and is probably an OLB at the next level; he seemed a bit miffed that Michigan waited to offer and has been seeking the proverbial love. He released a top 11 without M in it; we'll see whether that holds up.

Michigan is also chasing a couple of big fish. One is five-star Baylor commit Baron Browning, whose brother played for Harbaugh at Stanford. 2017 #1 Dylan Moses, a linebacker out of Louisiana, has a top six that doesn't include M but

The move to IMG could open a door to another top program, Michigan, which recently made headlines for announcing it would hold a portion of its spring practices at IMG Academy over the spring.

"That would be cool,” he said. "I’ve never really seen Michigan up close like that before and I’ve never visited the school either. It’s just a great opportunity and you know, hopefully I can get an offer from them, because I don’t have one yet.”

…will be around for Michigan's practices at IMG.

The Projection. Singleton and Ross and that's it.

Defensive Back

The Need. You can never ever have enough corners; Michigan will pursue at least a couple. Safety is either a critical need or a modest one depending on where guys like Ahmir Mitchell and Brad Hawkins end up. In a large class they'll probably go with five or even six DBs. They are set to lose that many.

The Recruits. Three-star Canadian Benjamin St-Juste was a camp commit who got pushed back a year because of differences between the Canadian and American school systems.

  • FL CB CJ Cotman was very excited about getting a Michigan offer; he immediately hit up every Michigan recruiting site for articles, fulfilling "who you talk to is important."
  • FL CB Stanford Samuels III is another Florida State legacy out of Flanagan who Michigan will try to steal away from the Seminoles.
  • FL CB Trajan Bandy, a high school teammate of Joshua Uche, has an offer and seemed pretty pumped about Michigan on twitter when Uche pulled the trigger. (He in fact jumped the gun with a celebratory tweet.)
  • MI CB Ambry Thomas goes to King and has been hot and cold on Michigan depending on when you get him. Michigan has to repair some of the after-effect of the Swenson situation. After they do
  • MI ATH Allen Stritzinger could be a corner or safety; we talked about him on offense.
  • Michigan's trying to get involved with five-star TX S Jeffrey Okudah and did manage to slip into a top ten.
  • Fantastically-named UT S Chaz Ah You picked up an offer in October. 
  • Instate safeties Jaylen Kelly-Powell and Scott Nelson are possibly the best bets to end up in the class; Kelly-Powell named Michigan his leader a while back and goes to Cass. Nelson is actually a MSU fan; we'll see if the Spartans get involved. Nelson is a Don Brown guy; he had a very early offer from BC.

The Projection. Nobody other than Kelly-Powell seems 50%+ to be in the class at this instant save St-Juste. They will take a pile of DBs, though.

Specialists

Michigan is unlikely to spend a scholarship on a specialist this year. They picked up Quinn Nordin, the country's top kicker, and Camaron Cheeseman, the #2 long snapper, in the last class. They also added punter Will Hart. A Zoltan-level punter would be the only player Michigan goes after with a precious slot.

This instant's ridiculous class projection you should absolutely ignore

I mean do not pay attention to this at all. A confidence level of "high" means approximately a 50/50 shot they end up in the class. "Low" means this is more or less a placeholder.

State Position Player Approx. Stars Confidence Level
CO QB Dylan McCaffrey 4.5 Very High
GA RB Kurt Taylor 3 Commit
MI RB Allen Stritzinger 3.5 Very High
GA WR Jeremiah Holloman 4 Commit
MI WR Donovan Peoples-Jones 5 Moderate
CA WR Joseph Lewis 4.5 Low
MI TE Carter Dunaway 3 Commit
CA TE Jimmy Jaggers 4 Moderate
MI OL JaRaymond Hall 4 Commit
NY OL Isaiah Wilson 5 High
FL OL Tedarrell Slaton 4.5 Moderate
FL OL Cesar Ruiz 4 Moderate
WI OL Tyler Beach 3.5 Moderate
NJ DT Fred Hansard 4 Low
UT DT Jay Tufele 4.5 Low
MI DE Corey Malone-Hatcher 4 High
FL DE Joshua Kaindoh 5 Moderate
NJ LB Drew Singleton 4.5 Very High
MI LB Josh Ross 4 High
CN CB Benjamin St Juste 3 Commit
FL CB Trajan Brandy 4 Low
FL CB CJ Cotman 4 Moderate
MI S Jaylen Kelly-Powell 4 Very High
MI S Scott Nelson 3 Moderate

Comments

MGoPodcast 7.17: Other Than Gary

MGoPodcast 7.17: Other Than Gary

1 hour 48 minutes

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OTHER THAN GARY starring Denard Robinson and Jake Rudock, 8:30, NBC

A big thanks to our sponsors. The show is presented by UGP & Moe's and frankly would not be happening without them; Rishi and company have been on board here from almost the beginning. Shopping with them helps us and supports good dudes. Check out 100years.moe for the rich history of Michigan's oldest apparel store.

Our other sponsors are also key in the expanding empire: thanks to Homesure Lending, Ann Arbor Elder Law, the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, and the University of Michigan Alumni Association.

Offense

All superlatives on this podcast are "Other than Rashan Gary" and many are also "Other than Khaleke Hudson." Brandon Peters is good; the wide receivers are diverse and plentiful; tight ends out the wazoo; tackle the main downer.

Defense

Starts at 37:18

Some guy named Rashan Gary. Suddenly a ton of linebackers. A couple of key pieces at corner. Safety a concern.

Ann Arbor Minute and Gimmicky Top Five

Starts at 1:07:56

Gimmicky Top Five is just "favorite recruits in the class" (other than Gary and Hudson). You can tell that this is a good class because Ace and I have almost entirely different lists.

Across the Crooked Blue Line w/ Steve Lorenz

Starts at 1:22:00

Having just run down the class in some detail we ask Steve for an overview of Michigan's PWO class, which is a dozen strong and possesses a number of players who could break through to be the next Kovacs, Glasgow, or Glasgow. We also ask him about the best recruiting story of the year and put him through the TERRIFYING LIGHTNING ROUND.

MUSIC

"Across 110th Street"
"Still Alive" by Jonathan Coulton
"We Were Sad But Now We're Rebuilding" by Bear vs. Shark
"Roc Boys(And The Winner Is)" by Jay-Z

THE USUAL LINKS

2017 Recruiting Overview: Offense

2017 Recruiting Overview: Offense Comment Count

Brian February 5th, 2016 at 12:27 PM

The numbers

We projejct that Michigan loses one additional grad transfer, leaving Michigan with 18 seniors and 18 spots to start 2017 with. A normal rate of attrition should see them get to a class around 25. Michigan can backdate three or four early enrollees depending on what happens with Dytarious Johnson, giving them a maximum class size next year of 28 or 29.

Quarterback

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Dylan McCaffrey isn't as fast as Christian but we'll look past that

The Roster. Michigan isn't scheduled to lose anyone but with a roster that goes six deep at the moment it's likely a couple guys in back decide to look for greener pastures. Michigan will take one, because only a lunatic skips QB recruiting, and may grab a second if he's a Viramontes/Gentry type with upside at multiple positions.

The Recruits. Michigan has been focused on CO QB Dylan McCaffrey (yes that McCaffrey) for months now. They are in excellent shape with a guy who says he will commit by spring. A Stanford offer is the main way this gets derailed. The Cardinal is focused on GA QB Davis Mills, another Michigan target.

The Projection. Michigan gets McCaffrey and calls it a day.

Running Back

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Stritzinger is a two way athlete

The Roster. Drake Johnson and De'Veon Smith graduate, leaving four true tailbacks and Wyatt Shallman. If Ty Isaac doesn't emerge into a contributor he may take a grad transfer; despite two backs in the previous class tailback is a priority.

The Recruits. GA RB Kurt Taylor committed in November. In-stater Allen Stritzinger is the most likely tailback to join the class. Stritzinger is guy on the fringe of four stars who could also be a defensive back.

Past Stritzinger Michigan will swing for the fences. CA RB Najee Harris is a soft Alabama commit who will give Michigan a look. PA RB D'Andre Swift is someone Michigan will go after, but he's a 5'9" guy who may not see Michigan as the best fit. He's also from Philly, which has not been kind to Michigan recruiting over the years. MD RB Anthony McFarland is another scatback type who's well-regarded early. Michigan is currently on the periphery of his recruitment.

Michigan also has an offer out to NJ RB Bo Melton, a teammate of Ahmir Mitchell.

The Prediction. Michigan gets and keeps Stritzinger as an ATH and keeps looking. Harris is probably their best bet for a blue-chip despite the Bama commit; it's likely that one or two additional guys who end up in the class are not mentioned in this post. Taylor is a guy who may end up elsewhere. Or maybe not.

Wide Receiver

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Peoples-Jones is Cass Tech's highest-touted prospect ever

The Need. Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh both graduate, as does reserve DaMario Jones. Jaron Dukes looks unlikely to be back for a fifth year. That leaves Ways, Harris, and Perry plus 4-5 of the 6(!) WR types in 2016. (The others are likely ticketed for the secondary.)

Michigan will try to keep the numbers up by adding approximately three. They do not need to reach and can swing for the fences.

The Recruits. GA WR Jeremiah Holloman is already committed. He's a three star early in the process but just impressed at a camp and may move up into four-star range. Michigan wants him to impress, but not so much that Georgia gets involved.

Cass Tech's Donovan Peoples-Jones is a top ten national recruit and probably the highest priority for Michigan's staff in 2017 outside of OTs. OLSM's KJ Hamler is a dynamic 5'9" dude who really wants to go to Oregon right now. The rest of the board is extremely murky, with few top targets listing Michigan guy. They are after CA WR Joseph Lewis, an LA kid currently pegged for USC. CT WR Tarik Black is in an area of the country Michigan's done reasonably well in, but Michigan is trailing a bunch of schools.

The Projection. No idea. 50/50 that Holloman gets sufficient SEC interest to remove him from Michigan's equation. Peoples-Jones is reportedly coming around on Michigan as a potential power but Florida is consistently mentioned as a problem.

Tight End

The Need. Michigan can go relatively easy here after signing three in 2016. They'll take at least one—they in fact have already done so. After that they can hold out for a top tier prospect, of which there don't seem to be a ton of in 2017.

The Recruits. In-state three-star legacy Carter Dunaway is already committed. Dunaway is a lot like Sean McKeon: a big frame that needs a lot of development. CA TE Jimmy Jaggers took an unofficial last fall, his second trip to campus. After Jaggers there's not much on the board; three of Michigan's top targets are already committed elsewhere, two to Notre Dame and one to Stanford.

The Projection. Michigan gets Jaggers to go with Dunaway.

Offensive Line

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Isaiah Wilson is a large man

The Need. Tackle is without question the #1 priority in the 2017 class. Michigan did not take a true tackle in 2016 and burned Grant Newsome's redshirt last year, leaving Nolan Ulizio the only tackle on the roster with freshman eligibility. Ben Bredeson could pop outside if necessary (and it will probably be necessary); he is a natural guard.

Michigan will also be on the lookout for a couple of interior linemen, with center a priority after Michigan did not get one in 2016.

The Recruits. Michigan has a commit from in-state four star JaRaymond Hall. More dudes are needed; fortunately, Michigan is well-positioned for a ton of high-end prospects. There are so many that we should grab us some bullets:

  • 5* NY OT Isaiah Wilson has declared Michigan his leader repeatedly, most recently a few weeks ago. He said Michigan was a "big leader" while talking to a Florida site; that's a great sing. While Lorenz cautions that his recruitment is not likely to be a cut-and-dried thing over by March, Michigan is a solid favorite.
  • FL OT Tedarrell Slaton also named Michigan his leader a few months back. Teammate Kai-Leon Herbert also has an offer; the pair is trying to visit over the spring. Even if they can't pull that off a dollar says they take in Michigan while they practice at IMG.
  • CA OT Wyatt Davis will be a national recruit; Michigan is in an amorphous top group.
  • NJ OT Micah Clark has Michigan in a top 15; he says OSU leads. OSU already has a couple of high-profile tackles committed.
  • FL OC Cesar Ruiz is at IMG; before that he was at Camden with Brad Hawkins and Ron Johnson. Michigan is in an early top three that figures to expand before narrowing down again.
  • TX OT Austin Deculus has a Michigan offer and some interest; he'll be a tough pull away from LSU even if Michigan currently sits in his top 3.
  • WI OT Tyler Beach has a tentative top two of Michigan and Wisconsin; he's originally from Colorado and thus not as locked in to the Badgers as a lot of in-state OL are.
  • GA OT Netori "Fifth Element" Johnson just decommitted from Alabama. Michigan grabbed Elysee Mbem-Bosse out of his school last year and he's interested in M.

Michigan will take four or five guys this cycle and I wouldn't be surprised if three of them were tackles.

The Projection. Hall sticks, Michigan gets Wilson and Ruiz and maybe Slaton. They add a fifth guy who is 30/70 to have been mentioned.

Comments

National Signing Day Presser 2/3/16: Jim Harbaugh

National Signing Day Presser 2/3/16: Jim Harbaugh Comment Count

Adam Schnepp February 4th, 2016 at 9:36 AM

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[this is obviously not from the presser but is obviously the photo I was going to use]

[Fuller/MGoBlog]

[I missed the question but it’s something about the goals of the event]

“That was the main objective, to celebrate these youngsters and all their hard work. Their parents made so many sacrifices; I had a chance to see it up close. So many sacrifices: their money, their energy. This needs to be celebrated, need to have some fun. We’ll go back to work at 2:30 but great to have some fun. ”

Is this everything you hoped it would be?

“It was. Mainly it was inspired by Chad Carr, the ChadTough Foundation, their family, the entire family. Got to see it for an entire year. Got to see the love, a family that loves this youngster and a community that loves Chad and to see all him loved back, it brings you closer to God. Or at least for me it does. And also the sanctity for life. Have been very inspired by Chad Carr

[something about the recruiting class]

“We are so excited about all of our signees. We are tremendously- I’m standing here with you, so…yeah. But from top to bottom, this recruiting class is youngsters that have a real heart for competing and heart for football. They’ve got football faces. Competitive in the classroom. As we said before, they’ve worked so hard to put themselves in a position to be here and they love ball. I have a real appreciation for the families that trust us to coach their sons, to teach them, because when you’re a family it doesn’t matter what you have monetarily or what you don’t have, your most prized possession is your son or your daughter. When you trust somebody to develop them, I take that very seriously. Just happy that they respect us and that they trust us.”

Where did you get the idea for today and how long has it been in the works?

“I guess just how could we do something fun and a celebration. I’ve been watching this process for years and experienced it myself; you pull a fax out of a fax machine and a coach stands up and talks about them and usually says kind of the same thing, so wanted to do something different. Wanted to do something awesome, and was really pleased. Thought today did that.”

On paper this is a great class. Can you talk about the expectations moving forward for this class?

“Yeah, I mean, it’s a process. I love that word, and talk about it especially going from high school to college. That’s…it’s uncharted waters. It’s the unknown. If you have sons and daughters of your own you know that step and what it takes, [and] it’ll be a process. It’s gonna be a team effort to it. Everybody here at the University of Michigan, the love that you surround the youngsters with, and also a team effort with parents and families. Really appreciate the trust there and with that we can do great things and expect great things. I think that’ll happen, especially with the group we have. All these youngsters all come from great families. They have great places to go and get advice from their parents or from their family, and I think they’re going to make the transition very well.”

What’s the cap number on the class? How high can it go?

“Well, there’s going to be some coming. There’s going to be another announcement later today. Youngsters that are going to be preferred walk-ons that we’ve been recruiting for a long time, they’re going to sign as well. It’s gonna be a good, big number.”

Do you know what the number of scholarships you can give out in this class is?

“Uh, yeah, in terms of scholarships I think it’s going to come in somewhere around 29.”

Did you guys use any grayshirts?

“No.”

Did you guys backdate the early kids?

“Uh, yes.”

[After THE JUMP: sleepovers, honesty with early commits, non-apologies]

Comments

National Signing Day: The Hub

National Signing Day: The Hub Comment Count

Brian February 3rd, 2016 at 12:57 AM

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via @Babcocks_Hair

HomeSure-Logo-NMLS-14_thumb_thumb_th[2]OKAY SO HERE'S WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO. You're gonna load this page and it's just gonna sit there. You will not hit refresh. Our two twitter collections will update automatically, putting the news in your eyeballs. Twitter collection #1 is news-only, who has gone where. Twitter collection #2 is the ongoing exultation/panic/depression thread. To participate just @ me.

We are caching the front page, which means you will appeared logged out. You will be logged in on interior pages. Going to interior pages may result in 503s and the like; staying on the front page will get you the latest and greatest news without such risk.

OKAY SO HERE'S OUR SPONSOR. Yep, Homesure Lending. It's like all those Rocket commercials except 1) Matt was not a major contributor to the subprime crisis, so he's got that going for him, 2) Matt never wrote a letter to LeBron James in comic sans*, 3) Matt goes out to various companies to get you the best possible rate. My lender has the word "wholesale" in its name, and this makes me feel great. Also the rate.

Matt's got a ticket offer going for a Michigan football or basketball game. If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.

*[Probably. I have not checked with him to make sure this is true.]

OKAY SO THIS IS THE SCHEDULE.

  • 8:10 AM: TN WR Nate Johnson. Michigan.
  • 9 AM: MI CB Lavert Hill. Michigan.
  • 10 AM: MI OL Alaric Jackson. M, Iowa, Nebraska.
  • 11 AM: MI K Quinn Nordin. Michigan.
  • 11:30 AM: AZ DE Connor Murphy. Michigan, USC, Oregon, ASU.
  • 1 PM: NJ DE Rashan Gary. Michigan.
  • 1 PM: FL WR Pie Young. Michigan, Louisville, USC.
  • 3PM: CA TE Devin Asiasi. Michigan.
  • 3PM: CA DT Boss Tagaloa. Michigan, USC, UCLA, UW.
  • 4PM: CA QB Vic Viramontes. Michigan, Utah, Cal.

OKAY SO THIS IS THE NEWS-ONLY TWITTER COLLECTION

OKAY SO THIS IS THE EXULTATION/PANIC/DEPRESSION THREAD

Answering questions whilst chained to my laptop all day. If I don't get to yours it's almost certainly because it's already been answered several times already, or I'm answering it right now. Greg Little is not flipping. I deeply regret ever bringing his name up in speculation.  There is no silent commit whose name isn't on the schedule above. Don't tweet at croots.

Comments

Jimmystats: A Crutin Consensus

Jimmystats: A Crutin Consensus Comment Count

Seth January 20th, 2016 at 3:21 PM


Back in the day the recruiting roundups that Ace would put together would show the star ratings from each site of the various Michigan targets. The problem was we kept noticing dramatic differences that weren't really dramatic. For example here's a table of guys given 5-stars by these services since the 2010 class:

Recruit Rivals ESPN 247 Scout
Jabrill Peppers
Derrick Green    
Kyle Kalis    
Ty Isaac    
Ondre Pipkins      
Demar Dorsey      
Dymonte Thomas      
Devin Gardner      
Shane Morris      
Patrick Kugler      
Kareem Walker      

Was Scout ludicrously high on M guys, or giving out more 5-stars? Actually they were all ranking not that far from each other, but Michigan just happened to get a lot of the guys in that 4-/5-star margin. It only looks dramatic because there are only five possible rankings.

This was recruiting until 247 introduced their composite rating. That composite is so amazingly useful for most "how good was he as a recruit" questions.

Rivals Scout ESPN 247 Stars
Top25 Top 25 92+ 100+ ★★★★★
6.1 Top 50 91 98-99 4.75
6.0 Top 75 89-90 96-97 4.50
5.9 Top 150 87 95 4.25
Top250 Top 300 86 90-94 ★★★★
5.8 4-star 80-85 88-89 3.75
5.7 3-star* 79 86-87 3.50
5.6 " 76-78 84-85 3.25
5.5 " 72-75 80-83 ★★★
5.4 " 70-71 78-79 2.75
5.3 2-star* 67-69 75-77 2.50
x " 66 72-74 2.25
5.2 " 63-65 70-71 ★★
5.1 " 62- 69- 1.75

Since forever I've also been maintaining this spreadsheet of data on Michigan players that started as a naming sheet for some iteration of the NCAA game, and just kept gaining columns. My old way of tracking the recruiting ratings on that was to take the stars each service gave out, figuring they all roughly had the same definitions, and average them.

But that was throwing away a ton of information provided by the sites, which typically post national rankings for the top ~250-300 recruits, and in three of their cases have their own more precise star rating systems. For example Rivals's 5-star range includes "6.1" and "6.0", while ESPN (50-95) and 247 (69-102) have numeric scales with the decades roughly coinciding with the next star rating.

They also have position ratings, which don't match up since they split positions differently, but if they can all be turned into percentiles.

So far I've done all but the last bit. Matching table's above. What we end up with is not a composite system like 247's so much as a composite Star Rating system that quadruples the star precision level.

I tried to honor stars and what they mean, but I also took national rankings and position rankings into account when one site's rating spanned multiple ratings of its competitors. So a 5.8 on Rivals will be a 4.00 if he makes the Rivals 250, and a 3.75 if he doesn't. And a 3-star WR on Scout who's ranked just behind the 4-star receivers in the WR rankings is like a 3.5-star.

[After the Jump: charts until I literally break Excel]

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