Should Michigan be a "bubble team" now?
Most bracketologists have Virginia Tech in the tournament. Joe Lunardi said that the Hokies were above his “last four in”, even after their loss to (and sweep by) Virginia yesterday (Virginia is about even with Iowa in RPI). FWIW, Michigan’s current RPI is 57, Va. Tech’s is 64. I thought it would be interesting to compare Va. Tech’s resume with Michigan’s, and I’m doing it by comparing their individual wins and losses to each other. I used the RPI numbers coming into Sunday, put common opponents in bold, and tried to format as best I could.
Wins:
Va.Tech Michigan
RPI Team RPI Team
50 Florida St. 42 @ Michigan St.
59 vs. Oklahoma St. 43 Harvard
61 Penn St. 61 @ Penn St.
65 Miami 61 Penn St.
91 @ N.C. St. 66 Oakland
94 @ Maryland 73 @ Clemson
94 Maryland 76 Northwestern
102 vs. St. Bonaventure 108 Utah
130 vs. Miss. St. 161 @ Iowa
168 Georgia Tech 161 Iowa
236 Mt. St. Mary’s 178 Indiana
243 Wake Forest 249 Bowling Green
259 Campbell 253 Bryant
266 vs. CSU Northridge 260 Gardner-Webb
299 @ UNC-Greensboro 262 N.C. Central
317 S.C. Upstate 317 S.C. Upstate
319 Longwood
Losses:
Va.Tech Michigan
RPI Team RPI Team
9 Purdue 1 Kansas
10 @ North Carolina 4 @ Ohio St.
26 vs. UNLV 4 Ohio St.
31 @ Kansas St. 9 Purdue
45 @ Boston College 19 @ Wisconsin
144 @ Virginia 22 vs. Syracuse
144 Virginia 39 Minnesota
168 @ Georgia Tech 41 @ Illinois
51 vs. UTEP
76 @ Northwestern
178 @ Indiana
The biggest differences between these schedules, in terms of difficulty, is that Va. Tech played Longwood, while Michigan played Ohio State twice and Kansas. Our wins are better than their wins. Our losses are better than their losses. But Michigan is punished for playing a more difficult schedule. If Michigan had played and beaten #144 Virginia rather than losing to #1 Kansas in overtime in their out-of-conference schedule, there would be no argument; Michigan would have the better resume.
So why is it that Va. Tech is above the bubble while Michigan is not even mentioned? They have 1 top 50 win (against #50, at home); are only 3-3 against teams ranked 100-200 (the Iowas and Indianas of the world), including a home loss; and their best road win is at #91 N.C. State. Michigan has 2 top-50 wins, has road wins at #42 Michigan State, #61 Penn State, and #73 Clemson, and is 4-1 against teams ranked 100-200. Virginia Tech’s only advantages are a 7-5 record against the top 100, compared to Michigan’s 7-10, and a 7-5 conference record where they have only played one game against either of the conference’s two ranked teams.
I’m not saying that Michigan belongs in the tournament; they have to get to .500 in the conference, which would include two more top-50 wins, and then win at least one game in the BTT. But can someone explain why everyone seems to have Va. Tech in their brackets but no one (outside of mgoblog.com and Andy Katz) mentions Michigan?
February 21st, 2011 at 10:52 AM ^
Please don't throw out insults in you can't distinguish between YOUR and YOU'RE. I was kidding about being a bubble NIT team. Michigan is headed to the NIT and there is NOTHING wrong with that. The team is undermanned and inexperienced, but Morris, Morgan and Hardaway have made significant improvements.
The NCAA talk is misguided. This team loaded up on wins early against bad teams, which is the only reason they are even close to consideration.
February 21st, 2011 at 4:35 PM ^
Which is why since the MSU game we are 6-2 with all those games being played against B1G opponents. But you're right, we loaded up on wins early against bad teams. You obviously haven't been watching the last 8 games because you just continue to spew out bullshit without any facts behind them.
My point stands, you're retarded.
February 20th, 2011 at 6:20 PM ^
So I copied much of your post into a question for the guy that runs a very good basketball predictions website (http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/). The site makes predictions based off of how the rest of the season will turn out, rather than how things are now. He has Virginia Tech in as an 11 seed, while Michigan is in his "Decent resumes but not good enough" category. This is his response as to why he put Virginia Tech in and Michigan out.
"Well, I agree with you that if the season ended now, Virginia Tech would be out. In fact, as you did, one can make a case for Michigan having the better resume now.
The reason I have Michigan where I have them is because I really don't like their remaining schedule. I think they're going to finish at best 1-2, and their best case scenario for the Big Ten tournament is beating Iowa or Indiana in the first round and then getting destroyed in the second round.
Virginia Tech's schedule, on the other hand, is very manageable. I think 3-1 is their most likely finish, and I see a realistic path to the ACC tournament semifinals.
So that's why I have Va Tech and Michigan where I have them. If Michigan is going to make the Tournament they're going to have to finish 9-9 in the Big Ten or they're going to need a strong Big Ten tournament."
February 20th, 2011 at 6:48 PM ^
But I don't know how the conclusion is made that at best we finish 1-2. That's probably a bit more likely than 2-1, but Wisconsin has yet to beat someone as good as us on the road while Minnesota has lost 5 of their last 6 and is looking like they might completely fold without Al Nolen. Then we have a game against a team we already beat on the road.
Meanwhile, Va Tech has 4 games remaining two of which are Duke at home and @ Clemson, so 3-1 is most likely?
And why again are we going to get killed in the second round?
February 20th, 2011 at 6:56 PM ^
It seems to me that someone who makes the assumption that a 2-1 finish gets us into the tournament would definitely put us on the bubble
February 20th, 2011 at 6:25 PM ^
is 2-8 and almost 2-9 since UTEP is hovering at #51.
Michigan is 6-10 against RPI top 100 which is solid.
Michigan has 2 bad losses and no quality wins in their resume. I would consider Wisconsin game as must win since it would net a one quality win against Wisconsin. All things considered equal when it comes down to selecting the last 4 teams, quality wins probably weighs more than you think.
I would say that they're a bubble team but their resume leaves a lot to be desired.
February 20th, 2011 at 6:28 PM ^
There is no world where 6-10 is solid.
February 20th, 2011 at 6:41 PM ^
that would be a solid record when it's RPI TOP 100 TEAMS.
February 21st, 2011 at 12:09 AM ^
You can admit it....you don't know very much about college basketball, do you?
February 20th, 2011 at 6:33 PM ^
February 20th, 2011 at 6:34 PM ^
Whatever happens, I am really, really happy with this team.
February 20th, 2011 at 6:36 PM ^
This team plays hard all the time. They are just undermanned and inexperienced right now. But the players' effort cannot be questioned.
February 20th, 2011 at 11:53 PM ^
I hate watching idiots like you get points while getting negged to Bolivia for stupid comments like this. Brian, for people like this you need to bring back actusl negging.
February 20th, 2011 at 6:37 PM ^
February 20th, 2011 at 6:48 PM ^
Are you as dumb in real life as you are on the internet? We don't have to win another game to make the NIT. Even if there are 20 teams between us and the last team into the tourney (there aren't), we're still well into the NIT.
February 20th, 2011 at 6:57 PM ^
Wisconsin is holding serve against Penn State, which is good for us
February 20th, 2011 at 7:09 PM ^
have played good basketball all year. If we can win 3 of are next 5 we will get in.GO BLUE!!!
February 20th, 2011 at 8:15 PM ^
I think the reality is that we are a bubble team, the national media just doesn't recognize it yet. As most others are saying, 2-1 in the final 3 plus 1 BTT win and we're likely in. 1-2 in the final three and it's hello NIT (Which is pretty respectable imo)
February 20th, 2011 at 8:56 PM ^
Yes, Michigan is on the Bubble
Now they just need wins to fortify their spot and move on up. Three resume games to close out and the team has put itself in position to sneak in if they are up to the task and get two out of these three.
I was one of the few optimists heading into the season, by saying this team indeed would compete on the bubble, but because of youth fall short, end up in the NIT where they would have a nice run and end up with more than 20 wins. The team is more talented, top to bottom, than last year and has a lot more chemistry. It was just a matter of how would the youth hold up. I'll let D-Mo and Hardaway's play speak for how the youth is holding up.
This team is right where I expected them to be. It's going to fun to see if they can pull this off. Right now, i wouldnt bet against them and Beilein.
February 20th, 2011 at 9:30 PM ^
I've got to hand it to you: you were, indeed, way more optimistic about this team than almost everyone else here. Nice call!
February 20th, 2011 at 9:30 PM ^
According to ESPN's bracketology, we're not even in the 2 groups of 4 that just missed the cut. And Penn State did make the cut. Ugh. Don't we have the same record but beat PSU 2 times? Double Ugh.
February 21st, 2011 at 12:40 AM ^
previously stated, but do keep in mind these bracketology predictions are saying how things stand as of now, they are not predicting the 68 teams three weeks from now. If we beat wisconsin we will probably be in the last four in so things can change quickly when you have quanlity opponents left.
I also agree with another poster who said that pre-season expectations are partly why we are not in the discussion as of now. I mean State is going to have to play great basketball just to get to 18 wins, yet they are mentioned in nearly every bracketology prediciton. Talk about how better their SOS but we have the 18th hardest SOS with three quality opponents left in the regular season. In the end, we can't control how these so-called experts precieve our previous games. I don't see us winning 2 out of the last 3, but you play good ball and anything can happen. Need to see some of the role players step up.
February 20th, 2011 at 11:28 PM ^
they're in the tourney because folks think the committee will overlook their RPI and see their 7-5 record in the ACC. If they manage to go 1-3 to close out the season, a possibility (play at WF, Duke, BC, at Clemson) they'd be on the other side of the bubble and would need a win or two in the acc tourney.
February 20th, 2011 at 11:54 PM ^
I think JB needs to start talking us up and trying to get people to recognize we should be talked about for the tourney. Our resume is better or as good as a lot of the teams that they have in right now. JB needs to get out in front of the media, tell everyone we deserve to be in the conversation. I know he probably won't because he's a class act, but I wish he would. Nothing wrong with making your case heard IMO, it can't hurt.
February 21st, 2011 at 8:28 AM ^
I don't think JB needs to make his case heard explicitly. It's the tournament committee and bracketology guys' jobs to continue to assess everyone's resume for a bid. If we keep winning, we move up the ladder, no question. Lunardi doesn't have us in the final 8 but a lot of other bracket prognosticators do. Let's just get to 20 wins (or more) and see what happens. Great season so far either way, got a lot to look forward to.
February 21st, 2011 at 12:09 AM ^
We need someone to rep us, it's getting to point where I'm beginning to believe we may have to make some serious noise in the BIG TEN tourny to get in.
February 21st, 2011 at 1:01 PM ^
Lunardi's next update should be today. Since the last one, Penn State got drubbed by Wisconsin. Washington State lost at an Iowa-esque Arizona State (btw, Washington State is now 7-8 in a terrible Pac-10 and now have three losses outside the top 100. What are they doing anywhere near the bubble?). The Cleveland State loss hurts Butler, since that hurt their two bet wins. I don't think the Horizon league gets two bids this year. Also, Butler's spot on the bubble is based more on last year's performance than this year's, given their four losses outside the top 100 compared to only 5 wins against the top 100. Colorado State just lost to UNLV at home. I would guess that Penn State and Washington State drop out of the bubble and Michigan moves up.
EDIT: Nope, still not in the last four out. VCU and Nebraska have moved into that group. Nebraska, despite their big win over Texas, actually has exactly one road win all year (over RPI #132 Oklahoma). Their nonconference schedule included only 3 top 100 teams. They won two of those (#86 Hofstra and #88 USC), and lost to #150 Davidson. They also scheduled 8 games against teams ranked lower than 200. Michigan's resume is pretty equal right now, with fewer big wins and fewer bad losses, and a more difficult overall schedule. VCU has 6 top-100 wins against 5 losses, but also has 3 losses outside the to 100 (one to #221 Georgia State). Their best win is at #30 Old Dominion, to whom they later lost at home. Again, comparable to Michigan, with some better wins and some far worse losses. The "bubble" is so big this year that a strong finish by a number of teams could vault them out of nowhere into the field.
February 21st, 2011 at 1:38 PM ^
michigan has been better than anyone could have expected this year. i hope they make it, and if they don't, watch out for next year! they'll beat the spartans at hoem!
February 21st, 2011 at 4:29 PM ^
is not being given enough credit right now. Along with a very competitive showing against the Orange on a nuetral. M's chances are better than the experts are telling you. Please keep in mind, Tom Izzo is on ESPN's payroll, that is a big reason for the vomit-inducing MSU lovefest that you saw this weekend. Stop the season right now, M in, MSU out. Also, there is far too much mid-major love going on right now, only half those teams getting discussed will sniff the tourney. Lastly, Big East will get nine, not ten, M is on the good side of the bubble right now.
Beat Wisconsin - get out your dancing shoes.
February 22nd, 2011 at 4:42 PM ^