A call for calm
I have seen a ton of panic and negativity on this board since Saturday, but I think that if everyone can take a step back, there is a larger picture that explans so much of our struggles this season, and which and might provide a ray of hope.
It is fairly common after a coaching change for a coach to take a step back in year 3 because the exiting coach almost always recruited poorly during his last year or so (by virtue of being on the hot seat). As a result, while a new coach often comes into a situation in which he has talented upper classmen on the roster, by year 3, most of those players are gone and there is a gaping hole where the senior and junior talen should be.
That is precisely what we are going through right now. For Harbaugh's first two seasons, he was able to somewhat benefit from the upperclassmen that were on the roster from Hoke's first few successful recruiting classes. Those guys are gone, and in their place, our upperclassmen are made up of Hoke's much weaker last two classes. Those classes were followed by the disaster of a transition class that resulted from Michigan hiring Harbaugh almost on the eve of National Signing Day.
Harbaugh is not the first coach to experience initial success, followed by a tough 3rd year. The same thing happened to Hoke based upon RR's last few classes. While that may not be comforting, perhaps the following few examples will make everyone feel better:
Dabo Swinney - went 6-7 in his 3rd year, following a 9-5 2nd year. From year 4 forward, he hasn't won less than 10 games.
Urban Meyer (Florida edition) - following a 13 win national championship season in 2006, the program took a step back in 2007 and only won 9 games. That 3rd season was an outlier as it was followed by consecutive 13-win seasons in years 4 and 5.
Nick Saban (LSU edition) - followed a 10-win second season with an 8-5 3rd season, only to win 13 games (and a national championship) in year 4.
Nick Saban (Bama edition) - Hist first two full seaons were 12 and 14 wins (with a National Championship in year 2). In year 3, he took a relative step back to 10 wins, only to follow that with 12 and 13 win season (and 2 more national championships).
Mark Dantonio - after taking MSU to a 9 win second season (which, historically, is a great season for them), Mork went 6-7 in year 3, only to rebound to an 11-2 conference title season in year 4.
A few observations:
1. Each of those guys is a massive douchebag. Not necessarily relevant, but it jumps off the page.
2. Harbaugh may not recover as quickkly in year 4 as these guys because his transition class was really small and weak (not on him), and moreover, his first few classes really whiffed on OL).
3. Look at some of the young players on our roster. Aside from OL, which we need to fix ASAP (and which should resolve itself as our young line matures over the next 2 years), we are STOCKED with young talent. Unfortunately, this season, that talent is playing against older, stronger, more experienced players who are more fundamentally sound just from being older, stronger and more experienced. As these guys get older, stronger and more experienced, I think that the sky is the limit for our team.
tl;dr version - everyone chill out; we are really young; coaches struggle in year 3, even great coaches. history is a guide, will be rebound nicely over the next year or so.
October 11th, 2017 at 1:11 PM ^
All I'm saying is the man turned Stanford relevant, we havent had a Luck type QB come thru yet. Let's give him time it already feels better than the days of giving up 65 or whatever to fucking Illinois
October 11th, 2017 at 7:38 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 3:49 PM ^
Don't be a Brockman.
October 11th, 2017 at 4:03 PM ^
Harbaugh should not have let Jedd Fisch get away. He is the reason why the offense was doing so well the past couple of years. Drevno was an offensive lineman and look at our O line. So how can we expect the offense to run much better.
I have also heard that the offensive playcalling is platooned (o coordinator, running backs coach, wide receivers coach, head coach.) Too many cooks in the kitchen. Sometimes you have to quit being loyal to members of your staff and move on.
Hey Jim...replace Drevno!
October 11th, 2017 at 7:19 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 7:36 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 7:54 PM ^
My 'stay calm' hottake:
If we win out, we pretty much control our destiny.
Sparty has two more L's in them.
October 12th, 2017 at 11:30 AM ^
So much to say to this. First, making inferences like coaches struggle in year 3 because it happened to four coaches is confirmation bias 101. Lloyd Carr won a national championship in his third year. No mention of that?
Second, it’s not just coaching changes, it’s more regime changes. Going from Tressel to Fickell to Urb in 3 consecutive years didn’t hurt OSU because they kept the same regime, same offense, same defense. Michigan is still feeling the effects of RichRod going from pro style to spread and gutting the roster, then Hoke going back to pro/west coast 3 years later, and then Harbaugh going to pro/power 4 years after that. It’s created one of the worst roster imbalances in the country. It was really unfortunate that one of our few great players from the down years left early (#5), adding to the tilt. Anyways, the only way to fix it and create balance is to cut players from big classes during their 2nd/3rd years. (The only other potential option is to not fill up a class during the years with a lot of open scholarships, but no coach would ever do that.) Harbaugh has done a little bit of that, Shelton Johnson, Kingston Davis, Keith Washington, and then other types of attrition like Nate Johnson will happen, but there needs to be a lot more to get a balanced roster back so we’re not playing 80% underclassmen every few years.
Third, everything said above is what I said to anyone who would listen in 2015. We all knew 2017 would be the worst year under Harbaugh, and we guessed right because it might be his only non-double-digit win season at UofM, at least until years 6-7 when the vicious cycle repeats itself.
Fourth, I was wrong. Not about 2017. 2018. I always expected a down year in 2017, but expected us to start competing for a NC in 2018. We aren’t going to be good because it’s harbaugh’s 4th year. Those 4 coaches have nothing to do with this Michigan team. Let’s try to figure out how the 2018 offense will be national championship caliber.
QB: Speight? No. Peters? Unlikely. McCaffery is probably the future but we aren’t competing for a NC with a redshirt freshman qb.
RB: Now we see why Deveon Smith played so much last year. Unless, Kareem Walker or Samuels make a significant leap, we have average backs, and not one has breakaway speed. Trending downward since Jay Harbaugh started coaching them.
WR: More optimistic here, but the 4 best players will be sophomores next year, not upperclassmen. If Crawford is starting next year, we are in trouble.
TE: Solid.
OL: Saved the best for last. Everyone says that guys like Ruiz, Filiaga, and Steuber are the future. Great. They are still underclassmen next year. Not expecting them to deliver what Harbaugh needs to run his offense. It sucks that we are playing guys like Ulizio and Bushell-Beatty and they are getting valuable experience, except it’s wasted because they have no part in the future of the offense. Both are backup players.
tl:dr. The offense is so much worse than I expected this year, and will be not be significantly better next year because the talented players will still be underclassmen.
October 12th, 2017 at 12:36 AM ^
October 12th, 2017 at 2:59 AM ^
I'm not understanding where this is coming from... Was there talk on this board of firing Harbaugh? There is no other option than stay the course. I could see the talk of an assistant coach change, Drevno doesn't seem to be doing a very good job at all and Jay's work with the running backs is clearly lackluster.
Nobody is happy after a loss period, especially losing to a team like MSU or any other rival makes it worse. Our team is extremely inexperienced in key positions so nobody should have been expecting a national title or even a big ten title. I'm not going to throw in the hand and say ohh this is a 4 loss team but, the coaches and players on the offensive side really need to step up their game to save the season going forward.
After that blow out loss to Notre Dame a few years back, I had to re-evaluate my fandom. In the grand scheme of life it doesn't make one bit of difference if U of M 13 games or 8. I'm a fan I watch, I cheer, I'm mad after a loss but let it go almost as soon as the games over. Can't live your life letting thing you can't control hold any type of sway on your life.