Michigan - Spoiling B1G Playoff hopes since 2015?
First MGoBoard post, so please hear me out before commencing Neg-vember.
If Michigan wins out, MSU loses to OSU (2 Ls) and OSU loses to UM (1 L late season, no B1G Title game) and we beat Iowa in the B1G Title game (1 L late season and crappy strength of schedule), I could see the B1G being left out of the top 4 CFB playoff.
I know we all despise playoff scenarios as we are likely not going to be discussed a whole lot but I have a hard time believing a two-loss conference title champ (UM), a 1-loss B1G runner-up with a bad SOS (Iowa) or a 1-loss team who didn't even make the B1G title game late in the year (OSU) jumping into the top 4.
Updated with pretty much my same scenario but whatever... I'm not here:
Updated bowl projections, with Michigan knocking Ohio State out of the Playoff
November 8th, 2015 at 6:35 PM ^
Rudock has had better coaching than DG did. He also has an O-line that knows what it is doing. If we were recruiting one of those two to be our QB, and they would have the same coaching and support personnel, I would take DG in a heartbeat.
November 8th, 2015 at 7:13 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 4:41 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 4:01 PM ^
for Michigan to make the playoff--and by definition your scenario does--then we've got a decent chance for the fourth event to come to pass. We'd need the representative from two of the five leagues/ND below to fall beneath us.
Note that the symbol "|" stands for "given" in probability & statistics. The four events are:
1) UM wins out reg season
2) UM makes B1G Champ Game | win out
3) UM wins B1G Champ Game | in B1G CCG
4) UM makes Playoff | B1G CCG win
Games that will or may help Michigan's ranking:
(w/ present records and CFP rankings. Rankings to be updated Tuesday. Teams that lost this weekend are in red.)
• 5 remaining B12 round robin games & BU-Tex
• #6 Baylor 8-0 v #15 Okla 8-1 11/14
• #6 Baylor 8-0 @ #15 OkSt 9-0 11/21
• #6 Baylor 8-0 @ # 8 TCU 8-1 11/27
• #6 Baylor 8-0 v Tex 4-5 12/05
• #8 TCU 8-1 @ #15 Okla 8-1 11/21
• #14 OkSt 9-0 v #15 Okla 8-1 11/28
• SEC cannibalism
• #2 LSU 7-1 v Bert 5-4 11/14
• #2 LSU 7-1 @ #18 OleMS 7-3 11/21
• #2 LSU 7-1 v #19 TAMU 6-3 11/28
• #4 Bama 8-1 @ #20 MsSt 7-2 11/14
• #4 Bama 8-1 @ Aub 5-4 11/28
• CCG SEC West v #10 Fla 8-1 12/05
• PAC12
• #12 Utah 8-1 v #23 UCLA 7-2 11/21
• CCG #11 Stan 8-1 v PAC12 North 12/05
• ACC
• CCG #1 Clem 9-0 v ACC Coastal 12/05
• Cannibalistic OOC games including ND
• #5 ND 8-1 @ #11 Stanf 8-1 11/28
• #10 Fla 8-1 v #16 FSU 7-2 11/28
November 8th, 2015 at 4:12 PM ^
Bama´s D is scary good.
November 8th, 2015 at 4:17 PM ^
• UNC knocks Clemson from the undefeateds
• Stanford pastes ND
• Florida pastes FSU
• What has ACC proven?
• Big12 round robin leaves
• Okla w/ 2+ losses (Tenn W on resume)
• Others w/ 1+ losses (resumes suck)
• Stanford beats ND
• Any combination that causes the representative from two of the five leagues/ND above to fall below us.
November 8th, 2015 at 6:58 PM ^
I admire the dream, but I don't think there's a realistic chance that a two loss team makes the playoffs this year.
November 8th, 2015 at 8:31 PM ^
Michigan would have incurred with Baylor's or OkSt's or TCU's out-of-conference schedule, the extremely confident answer will be ZERO in all cases.
The committee is not going to take kindly to this:
BAYLOR OUT-OF-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE
OKLAHOMA STATE OUT-OF-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE
TCU OUT-OF-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE
November 8th, 2015 at 4:41 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 5:58 PM ^
But whatever happens, let's just enjoy the ride. When was the last time we were in position to play for anything other than pride when November rolled around? I'm thinking we're essentially out of playoff consideration with whatever happens, but there's still a ton to play for. Win out, and we're undoubtedly in a NY6 Bowl.
Imagine playing for a Rose Bowl title in year one of the Harbaugh era, when most everyone predicted 6-7 wins, one year removed from being a national laughingstock at 5-7. Lot still needs to happen even for that, but it's nearly within our realm of control now.
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November 8th, 2015 at 6:41 PM ^
Even if we lose to OSU and finish 9-3 there's a chance at a NY6 bowl, Ole Miss was 9-3 and in the Peach Bowl last year.
November 8th, 2015 at 7:27 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 9:18 PM ^