This is why we can be sure that an NFL team won't jump in with a mega-offer and derail the Michigan deal.

Submitted by FrankMurphy on

(TL;DR version: there are a lot of things that need to happen for an NFL team to steal him away at this point, and there isn't enough time for all of those things to happen.)

Based on everything that has been reported and rumored, there are four things of which we can be reasonably certain: 1) Hackett is in the Bay Area as we speak to try to seal the deal, 2) whatever understanding has been reached involves some type of agreement by the 49ers to release Harbaugh from his contract, 3) there is a meeting scheduled between Harbaugh and Hackett at some point after the 49ers' final game today, and 4) as of last night, Harbaugh was sure enough that he wanted to come to Michigan that he gave his close friend Dave Feldman the go-ahead to report the news.

Neither Michigan nor the 49ers want Harbaugh to go to another NFL team, which is why the 49ers would probably only release Harbaugh from his contract if he agrees to take the Michigan job (or at the very least, agrees not to pursue a position with another NFL team). Hackett has probably spoken with the 49ers' brass about extricating Harbaugh from his contract and may have some kind of understanding in place by which Michigan covers all or part of Harbaugh's buyout (or, if there isn't a buyout, pays the 49ers some kind of consideration) on the condition that the 49ers refrain from trying to trade his rights to another NFL team. Thus, I think the meeting scheduled for after the game involves Hackett, Harbaugh (and his agent), AND 49ers representatives.

At that meeting, the written contracts that consummate this three-way understanding will be executed. It's in the interests of both Michigan and the 49ers to hold the meeting as soon as possible after the game ends, preferably before Harbaugh leaves the stadium and ideally immediately after he's done addressing his team and meeting with the media (which is why yesterday's report that Michigan is sending a "crew" to the 49ers game makes sense). Today is game day, and knowing how laser-focused and competitive Harbaugh is, his mind is on the game and only the game.

So, the only way that this could fall through and we lose Harbaugh to the Raiders or another NFL team is if 1) Harbaugh gets cold feet between the end of the game and the meeting, 2) he meets with his agent during that short window and tells him to delay the meeting, 3) his agent delays the meeting, 4) his agent immediately gets on the phone with other teams and is able to come to an agreement with one of them, 5) his agent somehow gets the 49ers to give the other team permission to interview Harbaugh, 6) the team satisfies its Rooney rule obligations, 7) the team and the 49ers agree to a trade, and 8) Hackett and everyone who has lobbied Harbaugh over the past few weeks is unable to sway him back. Keep in mind that if 1, 2, and 3 happen, Hackett will probably give Harbaugh a hard deadline of no more than two days to say yes or no, and that 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 would all need to happen before that deadline. The likelihood of that is extremely small.

In short, I think we can rest assured that this is done.

bronxblue

December 28th, 2014 at 12:41 PM ^

Sure it could happen, but the teams with the most likely need for a replacement are the Raiders, Jets, and the Bears, and none of them seem overwhelmingly appealing.  All of the factors you listed could occur, but Harbaugh seems unlikely to be swayed by any agents, but I'm sure he's heard the offers out there and knows this is the best.  And let's be honest - if he does great at UM I don't think he'll live out the contract before he jumps back to the NFL, and few UM fans will feel too bad about it.  He's not stuck in college by any means.

ghost

December 28th, 2014 at 12:49 PM ^

Harbaugh and his family have had 3 weeks to make this decision.  Things aren't going to change at this point.  He knows what NFL teams would offer him even though they can't techincally speak with him.  Nothing they can say now is going to change things.  

The arrogance of the NFL is really staggering.  No matter how much their "reporters" say he isn't leaving it won't change anything.

I say reporters in the absolute loosest sense of the word as its obvious these guys are trying to create news and carry the party line.

Crazy w Cheese Whiz

December 28th, 2014 at 12:45 PM ^

There are so many ifs, and proposeterous guesses here...its not going to happen but...

No secret that Rex Ryan is gone after today, and if the Jets could act super fast (I mean fire Ryan as soon as he took off his headset and before he walked across the field to shake Joe Philbin's hand), and then within minutes offer a tremendous deal to the 49ers (multiple draft picks, this year, next year, and beyond), then Harbaugh stays in the NFL.

Why the Jets...they are horrible, so they could offer the 49ers a guaranteed top 10 draft pick this year, and probably next year (even with Harbaugh, the Jets have zero talent, its not like when Harbaugh took over the 49ers (a team with talent but not well-coached...sound familiar?). Plus, its NY, the Jets could probably match Michigan's salary offer  or provide more to make JH happy, (sorry Bears) and the Jets play in a different conference, and on the east coast (no way the Raiders get JH, if the Raiders won under Harbaugh that would be the biggest punch in the face to Jed Yorke).

But this isn't going to happen...a lousy team with limited talent giving up a huge number of low first round draft picks, ask Washington how that's working out for them and RGIII.  Plus the Jets are just as likely to can their GM tomorrow, and hiring a headcoach without a GM is dicey.  Plus, hey its NYC,  you win and we comp you big time (you think Joe Torre pays for anything in NYC...okay maybe in Queens), or we feed you to the rats on the A train.

BIGBLUEWORLD

December 28th, 2014 at 12:45 PM ^

Harbaugh's friends are flying into A2 for a massive celebration.  Unless the plane gets lost over Des Moines like that Malasyian airliner, we are going to meet our new coach on Tuesday.

Godspeed Jim.  Thanks for answering the call. 

Mr Miggle

December 28th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^

Other teams can't negotiate with his agent without SF's permission. Under your scenario, wouldn't the tampering be obvious? I would think any team wanting to get involved would have to approach SF first.