Michigan as Underdog v. OSU - Historical Encouragement
Last week I delved into Big Ten history to analyze what beginning your
tenure with two losing seasons has meant as a Big Ten coach, but did so
while acknowledging that we weren't there yet. With this week now
being the only stop-gap we have to entering that forlorn territory, I
decided to take a look at how Michigan v. OSU has broken down over the
years with an eye toward the teams' performances outside of The Game.
Saturday will mark the 106th meeting between the Big Ten's two dominant programs, and in the 105 previous meetings, there have been 93 occasions where one team's record was better than the other's outside of The Game (twelve times we have been otherwise identical, most recently in 2006).
Overall, the "favorite" (as I'll call them - this means a better record that year outside of The Game, not what a Vegas line or other indicators may have predicted) has won 63% of the games, the underdog 32%, and 5% have been ties. Interestingly, in the twelve games we've been "even odds," Michigan has won 7 to OSU's 3 (with 2 ties), meaning with otherwise equal teams we've gotten the better of tOSU.
In the 43 games where Michigan has had the better record, M is 31-11-1 (72%/26%/2%), a pretty good record of taking care of business. And this is where it gets interesting...
In the 50 games where tOSU has had the better record, the Buckeyes have only won 56% of the matchups, with Michigan winning 38% and 6% ending in ties (28-19-3). The bunch from Columbus have done a much more lackluster job of winning when they should than have the Wolverines in this rivalry.
Even more striking - and this is where I draw my hope for this week from - in the nine games where OSU has been three or more games better than Michigan, the record is OSU 5, Michigan 4 (55% - 44%). The most recent of these was obviously last year, which doesn't lend much hope, but prior to that the most recent three were 1996, 1995, and 1993. In each of those games, OSU entered dominant with a shot at a national title riding on the line, and Michigan rose to the occasion to get the job done. I would submit that this year's OSU team is drastically inferior to each of those teams, and while we're inferior to the mid-90s teams as well, the numbers indicate that the dropoff ratio is similar.
This, combined with playing back in the Big House, gives me hope for Saturday. Let's get this scarlet&grey monkey off our backs and begin to turn the tide, Go Blue!
(records below have Michigan v. OSU impact removed)
Saturday will mark the 106th meeting between the Big Ten's two dominant programs, and in the 105 previous meetings, there have been 93 occasions where one team's record was better than the other's outside of The Game (twelve times we have been otherwise identical, most recently in 2006).
Overall, the "favorite" (as I'll call them - this means a better record that year outside of The Game, not what a Vegas line or other indicators may have predicted) has won 63% of the games, the underdog 32%, and 5% have been ties. Interestingly, in the twelve games we've been "even odds," Michigan has won 7 to OSU's 3 (with 2 ties), meaning with otherwise equal teams we've gotten the better of tOSU.
In the 43 games where Michigan has had the better record, M is 31-11-1 (72%/26%/2%), a pretty good record of taking care of business. And this is where it gets interesting...
In the 50 games where tOSU has had the better record, the Buckeyes have only won 56% of the matchups, with Michigan winning 38% and 6% ending in ties (28-19-3). The bunch from Columbus have done a much more lackluster job of winning when they should than have the Wolverines in this rivalry.
Even more striking - and this is where I draw my hope for this week from - in the nine games where OSU has been three or more games better than Michigan, the record is OSU 5, Michigan 4 (55% - 44%). The most recent of these was obviously last year, which doesn't lend much hope, but prior to that the most recent three were 1996, 1995, and 1993. In each of those games, OSU entered dominant with a shot at a national title riding on the line, and Michigan rose to the occasion to get the job done. I would submit that this year's OSU team is drastically inferior to each of those teams, and while we're inferior to the mid-90s teams as well, the numbers indicate that the dropoff ratio is similar.
This, combined with playing back in the Big House, gives me hope for Saturday. Let's get this scarlet&grey monkey off our backs and begin to turn the tide, Go Blue!
(records below have Michigan v. OSU impact removed)
Record | "The Game" | |||
Year | M Record | OSU Record | Differential | Winner |
1947 | 9 - 0 | 2 - 5 - 1 | + 6 | Michigan |
1897 | 5 - 1 | 1 - 6 - 1 | + 4.5 | Michigan |
1943 | 7 - 1 | 3 - 5 | + 4 | Michigan |
1901 | 10 - 0 | 5 - 2 - 1 | + 3.5 | Michigan |
1904 | 9 - 0 | 6 - 4 | + 3.5 | Michigan |
1923 | 7 - 0 | 3 - 3 - 1 | + 3.5 | Michigan |
1988 | 8 - 2 - 1 | 4 - 5 - 1 | + 3.5 | Michigan |
1931 | 8 - 0 - 1 | 5 - 3 | + 3 | Ohio State |
1971 | 10 - 1 | 6 - 3 | + 3 | Michigan |
1999 | 9 - 2 | 6 - 5 | + 3 | Michigan |
1902 | 10 - 0 | 6 - 1 - 2 | + 2.5 | Michigan |
1922 | 5 - 0 - 1 | 3 - 3 | + 2.5 | Michigan |
1903 | 10 - 0 - 1 | 8 - 2 | + 2 | Michigan |
1940 | 6 - 1 | 4 - 3 | + 2 | Michigan |
1948 | 8 - 0 | 6 - 2 | + 2 | Michigan |
1972 | 10 - 0 | 8 - 2 | + 2 | Ohio State |
1992 | 9 - 0 - 2 | 8 - 3 | + 2 | Tie |
2001 | 8 - 3 | 6 - 5 | + 2 | Ohio State |
1905 | 11 - 1 | 8 - 1 - 2 | + 1.5 | Michigan |
1918 | 4 - 0 | 3 - 2 | + 1.5 | Michigan |
1921 | 5 - 0 - 1 | 4 - 2 | + 1.5 | Ohio State |
1924 | 5 - 2 | 2 - 2 - 3 | + 1.5 | Michigan |
1925 | 6 - 1 | 4 - 2 - 1 | + 1.5 | Michigan |
1929 | 5 - 2 - 1 | 3 - 3 - 1 | + 1.5 | Ohio State |
1930 | 7 - 0 - 1 | 5 - 1 - 1 | + 1.5 | Michigan |
1932 | 7 - 0 | 4 - 0 - 3 | + 1.5 | Michigan |
1974 | 10 - 0 | 9 - 2 | + 1.5 | Ohio State |
1978 | 9 - 2 | 7 - 3 - 1 | + 1.5 | Michigan |
1987 | 8 - 3 | 5 - 3 - 1 | + 1.5 | Ohio State |
1997 | 11 - 0 | 10 - 2 | + 1.5 | Michigan |
1927 | 5 - 2 | 4 - 3 | + 1 | Michigan |
1938 | 5 - 1 - 1 | 4 - 2 - 1 | + 1 | Michigan |
1955 | 7 - 1 | 6 - 2 | + 1 | Ohio State |
1970 | 9 - 0 | 8 - 1 | + 1 | Ohio State |
1981 | 9 - 2 | 8 - 3 | + 1 | Ohio State |
1989 | 9 - 2 | 8 - 3 | + 1 | Michigan |
1991 | 9 - 2 | 8 - 3 | + 1 | Michigan |
1946 | 5 - 2 - 1 | 4 - 2 - 2 | + 0.5 | Michigan |
1964 | 8 - 1 | 7 - 1 | + 0.5 | Michigan |
1966 | 5 - 4 | 4 - 4 | + 0.5 | Michigan |
1985 | 9 - 1 - 1 | 9 - 2 | + 0.5 | Michigan |
1990 | 8 - 3 | 7 - 3 - 1 | + 0.5 | Michigan |
1994 | 8 - 3 | 8 - 4 | + 0.5 | Ohio State |
1911 | 4 - 1 - 2 | 5 - 2 - 2 | 0 | Michigan |
1933 | 7 - 0 | 7 - 0 | 0 | Michigan |
1941 | 6 - 1 | 6 - 1 | 0 | Tie |
1952 | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 | 0 | Ohio State |
1956 | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 | 0 | Michigan |
1973 | 10 - 0 | 10 - 0 | 0 | Tie |
1977 | 9 - 2 | 9 - 2 | 0 | Michigan |
1980 | 9 - 2 | 9 - 2 | 0 | Michigan |
1982 | 8 - 3 | 8 - 3 | 0 | Ohio State |
1986 | 10 - 2 | 10 - 2 | 0 | Michigan |
2000 | 8 - 3 | 8 - 3 | 0 | Michigan |
2006 | 11 - 1 | 11 - 1 | 0 | Ohio State |
1908 | 4 - 2 - 1 | 6 - 3 | - 0.5 | Michigan |
1909 | 5 - 1 | 7 - 2 | - 0.5 | Michigan |
1912 | 4 - 2 | 5 - 2 | - 0.5 | Michigan |
1944 | 8 - 1 | 8 - 0 | - 0.5 | Ohio State |
1959 | 3 - 5 | 3 - 4 - 1 | - 0.5 | Michigan |
1963 | 3 - 3 - 2 | 4 - 3 - 1 | - 0.5 | Ohio State |
1976 | 9 - 2 | 9 - 1 - 1 | - 0.5 | Michigan |
1998 | 10 - 2 | 10 - 1 | - 0.5 | Ohio State |
1900 | 7 - 2 | 8 - 1 | - 1 | Tie |
1926 | 6 - 1 | 7 - 0 | - 1 | Michigan |
1928 | 3 - 3 - 1 | 4 - 2 - 1 | - 1 | Ohio State |
1937 | 4 - 3 | 5 - 2 | - 1 | Ohio State |
1939 | 5 - 2 | 6 - 1 | - 1 | Michigan |
1942 | 7 - 2 | 8 - 1 | - 1 | Ohio State |
1949 | 6 - 2 | 7 - 1 - 1 | - 1 | Tie |
1950 | 5 - 3 - 1 | 6 - 2 | - 1 | Michigan |
1953 | 5 - 3 | 6 - 2 | - 1 | Michigan |
1960 | 5 - 3 | 6 - 2 | - 1 | Ohio State |
1968 | 8 - 1 | 9 - 0 | - 1 | Ohio State |
1975 | 8 - 1 - 2 | 10 - 1 | - 1 | Ohio State |
1983 | 8 - 3 | 9 - 2 | - 1 | Michigan |
2007 | 9 - 3 | 10 - 2 | - 1 | Ohio State |
1907 | 4 - 1 | 7 - 1 - 1 | - 1.5 | Michigan |
1910 | 3 - 0 - 2 | 6 - 0 - 3 | - 1.5 | Tie |
1920 | 4 - 2 | 6 - 1 | - 1.5 | Ohio State |
1945 | 6 - 3 | 7 - 1 | - 1.5 | Michigan |
1961 | 6 - 2 | 7 - 0 - 1 | - 1.5 | Ohio State |
1967 | 4 - 5 | 5 - 3 | - 1.5 | Ohio State |
1919 | 3 - 3 | 5 - 1 | - 2 | Ohio State |
1935 | 4 - 3 | 6 - 1 | - 2 | Ohio State |
1951 | 3 - 5 | 4 - 2 - 2 | - 2 | Michigan |
1957 | 5 - 2 - 1 | 8 - 1 | - 2 | Ohio State |
1969 | 7 - 3 | 8 - 0 | - 2 | Michigan |
1979 | 8 - 3 | 10 - 1 | - 2 | Ohio State |
1984 | 6 - 5 | 8 - 3 | - 2 | Ohio State |
2003 | 9 - 3 | 11 - 1 | - 2 | Michigan |
2004 | 9 - 2 | 7 - 4 | - 2 | Ohio State |
2005 | 7 - 4 | 9 - 2 | - 2 | Ohio State |
1954 | 6 - 2 | 9 - 0 | - 2.5 | Ohio State |
1965 | 4 - 5 | 6 - 2 | - 2.5 | Ohio State |
2002 | 10 - 2 | 13 - 0 | - 2.5 | Ohio State |
1906 | 3 - 1 | 8 - 0 | - 3 | Michigan |
1936 | 1 - 6 | 4 - 3 | - 3 | Ohio State |
1962 | 2 - 6 | 5 - 3 | - 3 | Ohio State |
1995 | 8 - 4 | 11 - 1 | - 3 | Michigan |
1958 | 2 - 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 - 2 | - 3.5 | Ohio State |
1993 | 7 - 4 | 10 - 0 - 1 | - 3.5 | Michigan |
1996 | 7 - 4 | 11 - 0 | - 4 | Michigan |
2009 | 5 - 6 | 9 - 2 | - 4 | ?????? |
1934 | 1 - 6 | 6 - 1 | - 5 | Ohio State |
2008 | 3 - 8 | 9 - 3 | - 5.5 | Ohio State |
November 16th, 2009 at 11:38 AM ^
...that John Cooper coached the 1993, 1995, and 1996 teams. Enough said.
November 16th, 2009 at 12:01 PM ^
It was all Cooper's doing and the boys from AA had nothing to do with it. What's the excuse for the 1969 result?
November 16th, 2009 at 12:53 PM ^
just pointing out that the most recent victories by MIchigan against a large win differential occurred during the tenture of 2-10-1 Cooper, he the master of the ultimate choke-job. Say what you want about Tressel's uber-conservative coaching philosophy, but the guy understands The Game and gets his players ready for the fight. I don't think you catch this team unawares, and although I see a fiery Michigan team hanging around for a few quarters, the talent discrepancy here will catch up with the teams by the end of the game (as was the case last year).
November 16th, 2009 at 11:54 AM ^
That's being charitable. But, there's always a chance. We're capable of playing well on defense and offense, but our problem has been sustaining it for the entire game. Maybe this weekend we'll put it all together. Big upsets happen every year; why not this weekend?
November 16th, 2009 at 12:09 PM ^
I'll take any hope I can get right now.
November 16th, 2009 at 12:49 PM ^
A 38% chance of winning is better than what I would have given us before reading this post. Thanks for getting my hopes up only to be crushed Saturday afternoon.
November 16th, 2009 at 1:06 PM ^
While I don't think Michigan gets held to 7 points in this game, I do think that OSU is capable of putting up 40+ on us again. Oh sad days...
November 16th, 2009 at 1:53 PM ^
HATER.
I know Mattinboots, so please don't neg me for it.
I'm pretty skeptical, but I hope we can keep them under 30...? Maybe?
November 16th, 2009 at 1:08 PM ^
But the enjoyment of watching football is the emotion of it all. This is why sports shows can create a tagline, "and that's why they play the game" and use it after hours of "analysis", and of course why fans will stay devoted to their belief that despite logic, maybe this time will be the one.
As a quick counter analysis of this mostly historical feel good lesson (which I appreciate greatly, and especially for this season) I looked up OSU and UM records for 1993, where UM was 7-4 and Ohio State was 10-0-1 under the infamous John Cooper.
UM losses compare to OSU; (H for UM or OSU home game, A for away)
ND 23-27 (H) - OSU did not play ND
MSU 7-17 (A) - OSU won 28-21 (H)
Illinois 21-24 (H) - OSU won 20-12 (A)
Wisconsin 10-13 (A) - OSU tied 14-14 (A)
UM beat Ohio State 28-0 at home.
I don't know how to explain that in logical terms.
I'm tired of logic, I know what it indicates.
Emotion, nay Hope, is all that's left.
Anyway you slice it, by 4pm EST on Saturday, it's all about the Basketball and Hockey.
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