Shea Patterson vs. Jolton O'Peters, for the record. . .
This isn't any sort of Earth-shaking revelation, but I felt this needed to be said.
As observed by Brian, stephenrjking and others around here, Shea is risk averse, especially against zone coverage. If he doesn't like what he sees, he won't throw it, and if he feels uncomfortable he'll bug out of the pocket. This has been frustrating to watch, I ain't refuting that. I get it; we have a conservative QB.
However, I don't think enough, if anything at all, has been made of the upside. I apologize for the not-safe-for-lunch image but here's the stat line from Jolton O'Peters, last year's three-headed monster at QB:
185/346, 53.5%, 6.4YPA, 9TD, 10 INT
DSRs were 70, 64, 64, 63, 75, 60, 44, 65, 77, 75, 69, 50. (Average: 64.7)
This is Shea so far:
123/183, 67.2%, 8.3YPA, 12TD, 3 INT
DSRs (pre-MSU UFR) - 77, 77, 74, 79, 68, 87, 68 (Average: 75.7)
The ones he throws are more often sure things, and the YPA is way up, but these are sort of expected with his approach. We're also missing some of the nuances, such as the fact that last year's QBs were hardly fearless. Nevertheless, the takeaway is the TD:INT going from 50-50 to 4:1. Shea's thrown only one pick in conference play and that was off a deflection. He's on pace to finish around 18:4 or so. Also, while it hardly needs to be said that he's an upgrade, "not throwing" is arguably a Bad Read yet Shea's DSR average of 75.7 is comparable to the best QB performances of last season. He's tentative but he'll pass up opportunities to avoid disasters, and that shows in his grades.
I get the feeling Harbaugh has been relying on Shea as little as possible while he works on getting him more comfortable instead of trying to re-write his instincts. If that means leaving some of his potential on the shelf for now, so be it, as long as the ball doesn't go back to the other team. The only thing I'd change in the short term is adding a "two outs" baseball mentality. I for one don't want to see Shea go all gunslinger and start torching possessions, but if it's third and long, as Brian says that's basically a make-it-or-punt situation so that's when he should turn his limiter off and throw it up for grabs -- especially since we apparently aren't converting those anyway.
Still, we should give credit where credit's due; Shea's conservative play has more often than not kept the offense on the field. Just, Poor Damn Donovan Peoples-Jones (JPDDPJ) is something we're going to have to live with, but yay palindromes.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^
The difference in Shea's decision-making from Ole Miss is remarkable. Credit should probably be split 50-50 between him and Harbaugh, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Rudockening after the bye.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
With the exception of the Notre Dame game, Shea reminds me of Russel Wilson...doesn’t take big hits...even when he doesn’t like what he sees, he avoids a big hit and still gains a couple of yards going out of bounds. While sometimes frustrating, the lack of turnovers is appreciated by this fan.
- Captain Obvious
October 24th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
Can we treat O’Korn’s name like Voldemort or Beetlejuice and just not say it? Ever?
October 24th, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
I get what you're saying but serious answer, I'm not going to treat him like that.
John O'Korn, as far as I know, is a human being who contributed much of his time and maybe a considerable amount of his long-term health to play Michigan football for us, though he was provided a scholarship. He happened to have some truly ugly games playing QB for the program, but that's not a crime, and it's something he certainly felt bad about. FSM knows I've embarrassed myself far worse, the only saving grace being that I was under far less scrutiny.
As far as I'm aware, unlike folks who've been molesting gymnasts (Nassar) or physically abusing women (Smith) or working people to death (Maryland), his name bears no shame.
October 24th, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^
You do realize that Shea Patterson played in a passing spread at Ole Miss and that he broke their single-game passing record last year, right?
He's not risk averse. The conservatism is by design. And it's not that complicated; establish the run to set up the pass. That's vintage Harbaugh. And so far, it's working. In fact, it's a huge credit to Shea and to the offensive staff that he's been able to adjust seamlessly from Ole Miss' pass-first offense to Michigan's run-first offense.
I'm convinced that the offensive staff has some never-before-seen passing plays for Shea that they plan on breaking out in the Ohio State game (sort of like how Jim Tressel broke out a 5-wide set in the 2006 Ohio State game that they hadn't used all season and shredded our defense for 300+ passing yards... painful memory).
October 24th, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^
Right on. I've been thinking very similarly this past week. Partner Shea's approach with a defense like Michigan, and that leads to success.
October 24th, 2018 at 5:07 PM ^
I think it is clear that Shea could absolutley benefit from another year under Harbaugh. Especially with (knock on wood) a full arsenal of healthy receivers to utilize. I get that this year's QB class is weak, but at this point it doesnt seem like Shea is a lock to go either of the first two rounds, so hopefully he decides on another year of refinement slash continuation of revenge tour.
October 24th, 2018 at 6:29 PM ^
Everyone assumes this is a result of Shea and his tendencies, but this could just as likely be something he is coached to do, i.e. Har-Pep telling him to not throw anything whatsoever into zone coverage unless absolutely wide open.