Realistic View of the Defensive Line - Behind Midwest Peers

Submitted by alum96 on

Warning - long post but I think it's important to lay out the facts of our DL, so have tried to place a thought process that can do so below.  If this is the wrong place to post a long piece, mods please move to "diary".

First let me say I am a Michigan fan and alum so while you may feel free to downvote at will, most of what I present below will be facts, even if they are taken as negatives.   Second, this is only partially driven by the Akron game so it's not a knee jerk response as much as a view of what has transpired these first 3 games; notably the 1st and 3rd but after watching Purdue's DL do quite well with Notre Dame until it wore down in the 2nd half, it also is driven in part by the Notre Dame game.

The knee jerk reaction is its on the players here.  Obviously both our lines are substandard versus what a championship quality team has.  I am not speaking "champions of the midwest" which nowadays is like crowning a junior varsity beauty queen, but something similar to what would give UM a fighting chance first a top 2-3 type SEC team (or Oregon or whomever is a great team that year).   I am hearing the "fire Funk" chants by some on these boards but the talent of UM's offensive line is in the 2012-2013 class outside our 2 elder tackles.  Funk may be great, poor, or a very average coach.  I don't know.  He will have a ton of raw clay to work with and his work will become clear in 2014-2015 when these kids hit the field en masse.  The pedigree of the OL kids of 2012-2013 classes is very high, so we will see what the staff creates out of them ... but not this year as only the first wave (Kalis) has hit the field.  Miller is a 2011 kid, and Glasgow fergodsakes is a walkon.  But if you are the one(s) denouncing Funk's coaching  for the OL, you should be equally denouncing 2 of the 3 biggest names on the staff for the DL - that is Mattison and Hoke.  Arguing for one to be dismissed for the lack of production without equally arguing for the other 2 is a bit silly when both units are a fail versus championship quality.  My larger point is it is WAY TOO SOON to judge either.

Now on to the talent portion.  After these tough outings by our 2 respective lines, I am looking to the future and wondering what we have.  And how it compares to our 2 Midwest football power peers (insert Midwest football power joke here) - ND and Ohio.  Again, the OL classes of 2012-2013 look to have a lot of talent and while surely some will not pan out, there is a lot of raw clay to work with.  But on DL?  We have issues.  These are young players.  When young players are very good they flash.  I am not looking for Mike Martin or Brandon Graham as juniors.  I am looking for a "hey player ABC looked a lot like Brandhon Graham on that play... oh snap player ABC just screwed up on the next!! oh well he is a RS freshman".  We can see that sort of thing happening with Kalis because... he is Kalis.  We see that sort of thing happening with J Ross because... he is good.  I have seen no one do this of the younger players on the DL.  And that makes me worried.

Stars matter to a degree.  More important to me really is offer sheets.  When other powers come for a kid, that means that kid is really showing.  This is where you insert the JMFR meme - yes we all know every so often you hit on a 3 star (or 2) and he blows up.  We wave our muppets and every time another 3 star arrives we say MIKE HART! JAKE RYAN or heck Kovacks of walk on fame.  But let's be real, if hoarding 3 stars with the hope 70% because JMFR was the way to go, this would be Alabama's way.  You need to hoard 4 stars and try to get a 5 star every few classes to build a championship (even Big 10 championship team) contender that has staying power*. *=Wisconsin.  With that said the long a$$ preface of this post is over and I offer you a comparison of what OSU is recruiting and has in house on the DL versus our DL.  And yes I know DL has been their strength in recruiting but aside from a few kids like Strobel, Pipkins, Wormley - we are nowhere near their level.  (Mario and Taco are good midwest recruits but still below what OSU is recruiting).  Some of our  kids have what I'd call "MAC+" offer sheets: MAC teams + Illinois or Purdue or Indiana etc.  Maybe one will turn into Jake Ryan, but asking a bunch to do that is silly.  So before we get on Hoke and Mattison's case - consider the clay they have to work with.  Compare it to OSU's clay... or what Funk has with the OL.  It's a major issues.  p.s. I did not do as extensive of a look at Notre Dame but did look at 4-5 of their players inclusive of Nix and Tuitt and the offer sheets mirror OSU. 

This is where you give me the meme about how OSU's defense is not impressive and giving up tons of points to Buffalo and Cal.  To which I say, OSU's defense is as young as ours.  The entire DL is brand new.  They have some experience in the LB (less than ours) and DB (about same as ours)  They will only get better.  And scary better if recruiting (stars!) matter in the coming months and next year (at the DL).

Below is a side by side comparison with major offers from each player - I won't list all, but you should get the idea of caliber of teams recruiting each kid:

OSU just lost 3 DL players, 2 real studs + Garret Goebel

  • Simon - ND, Nebraska
  • Hankins - Bama, Florida, UM, Oklahoma, Wiscy
  • Goebel - UM, ND, Tenn, Wiscy

Huge losses - this would be like losing Martin + Graham off the same line plus say a 3rd very good college level player.  How do they replace it?  Folks it's sick - this is essentially the 2 deep for the current OSU squad.  And these are all Pipkins age - or younger other than Bennett.

  • A. Washington - Bama, FSU, Miami, UM, ND, USC
  • Noeh Spence - Bama, Florida, Georgia, LSU, UM - yada yada (think "Hand")
  • Tommy Schutt -  Florida, Miami, UM, ND, Penn State
  • Jamal Marcus - Clemson, Florida, ND, South Carolina, Vandy
  • Joel Hale - Florida, UM, Penn State (this is 1 of their 2 WORST recruits by offer sheet)
  • Michael Bennett - UM, ND, Penn State, USC, Stanford
  • Steve Miller - Florida, UM, UCLA, Nebraska (this is 1 of their 2 WORST recruits by offer sheet)
  • Michael Hill - Bama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, LSU, UM, S. Carolina, Vanderbilt
  • Joey Bosa -  Bama, Auburn, Florida, FSU, UM

I call these all national offers - these would be MIDWEST powers (ND, UM, OSU + SEC offers.  There are 2 - Miller and Hale who you could argue only have a SEC offer due to Urban and Florida... but that is it.  The rest are not Midwest recruits but national top end recruits.  If 3 fail to develop they still have an entiring starting DL + 1 extra that do.

Again please do not take this as a criticism but real recognize real.  Here are our kids.  Pipkins is a national recruit, and Stroblel is a bit behind.  Wormley has a OSU offer but there is no SEC type offer.... then it drops to Taco + Mario... then it drops off the map.  So if like OSU 3 of our players below don't develop... and it's the wrong 3, we essentially have a MAC+ type DL.  One that can be neutralized by MAC OLs.  Which frankly is what is happening.  I did not include Ash, Q. Wash, Black or Frank Clark for obvious reasons as they are upperclassmen... or in Clark's case, recruited for a diff position.  I also did not include Glasgow for obvious reasons but the mere fact he (bless him) is pushing for playing time is saying something. I know i know - insert Kovacks meme here.

  • Pipkins - Bama, Florida, OSU, Oklahoma, Tenn
  • Wormley - OSU, MSU, Illinois, Indiana (without the OSU offer for an in state kid, it is not as impressive looking)
  • Strobel - OSU, Nebraska, Wiscy, Stanford, MSU, Vandy  (a nice top end Midwest recruit...but lacking SEC interest outside Vandy)
  • Ojemudia - Stanford, MSU, Illinois, Iowa
  • Charlton - ND, Nebraska, UCLA, Tenn, Iowa, Illinois
  • Heitzman - Vandy, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana + a lot of MAC schools
  • Godin - Wiscy, MSU, Vandy, Missouri, Illinois
  • Henry - Illinois, Louisville, Pittsburgh + a lot of MAC schools

Takeaways:  Pipkins must hit.  Realistically OSU has 6 Pipkins right now across their DL at ends and tackles.  They have the luxury of 1-2 not hitting.  We do not.  Strobel must hit.  He is the 2nd best recruit by offer sheet, but it lags behind all but maybe 1 OSU recruit.  From there when you lay the offer sheets side by side UM lags, and not by a small amount.  This is the current reality.  Obviously coaches are addressing this in the current class - Mone and Marshall are nice starts but they are similar to a Strobel or Wormley offer sheet.  We need to start hitting on the elite - the McDowell and Hand and down the road the Cornell and other similar.  

Sorry for the length of the post but as I bang my head against the wall wondering why I am not seeing the flashes out of the young DL like I am seeing out of a James Ross or when I watch OSU give up tons of scores to Cal... but still see those flashes from their DL players, I resort to reality.  The above is reality.  We are way behind OSU's level of DL recruits.  I can only imagine what Hoke and Mattison could do with the clay Urban has on the DL.  We need MOAR high level clay.  Otherwise I am worried our 2014 complaints won't be too different than our 2013 complaints.

Comments

graybeaver

September 16th, 2013 at 1:42 PM ^

I liked this post.  It had great information.  Most national analyst believe that OSU has superior talent compared to Michigan. OSU just blew out a decent Cal team without their best player.  Ultimitely the Michigan coaching staff will be judged on winning.  If Michigan does not win the Legends division this year then Hoke should be on the hot seat.  This is Hoke's third season and if he can not make Michigan better than MSU, Nebraska, and NW then there needs to be a change.  Also, I keep hearing the "Michigan is one year away from being a national title contender" talk.  I would be surprised if next years team is as good as this years team.  Michigan loses their two best offensive lineman, WR, RB, field  goal kicker, and defensive lineman.  If Gardner leaves for the NFL 2014 could be a very disapointing season.  Also, who is going to step up and relplace Gallon, Fitz, Gibbon's, Washington, Lewan?

Space Coyote

September 16th, 2013 at 2:13 PM ^

Cal is a team that hits 14 3 pointers a game... on 60 attempts. And turns the ball over a lot. Then plays no defense on the other side. 

OSU is a good team, don't get me wrong, but it's not because Cal is decent or because they won without Miller, or because of their DL.

charblue.

September 16th, 2013 at 3:00 PM ^

I just can't revved up behind it. There is no stunning difference between Ohio and Michigan defensively this year. I like the dbs Ohio has. But which offense has this defense shut down based on all these recruited Dline players with SEC and ACC offers? 

Last weekend, Gardner 

Michigan's best skill players right now are products of RR's recruiting. And would you prefer they not have Lewan and Schofield at the tackles and Gardner Gallon and Dileo and Toussaint? Would you rather have the offspring of Hoke's recruiting with all the promise and no experience? Not me. Green is a five-star, recruited by the world, he hasn't broken a tackle yet. 

Yes, games are won on the inside and with strength and guile, developed by matuation, growth and loads of savvy and experience, not by thinking about all that promise to come. And, what's more, before we think globally about the Michigan experience rising to Alabama expectations, let's subdue teams in this conference first. 

Michigan is playing its recruits. It is rotating guys on the Dline to build them up both in stature and experience. If you play enough, you will figure it out. These kids are smart and they have character and pride, and they want to achieve. You don't get there without that drive. 

Saturday was bad. But I don't see anyone in this conference running away from anyone else based on recruiting letters. Tell that to Northwestern. Tell that to MSU. Tell that to Wisconsin. 

Michigan and Ohio have never played in a Big Ten championship game. Even Nebraska did that, and they are perceived as a perennial national contender which regularly calls on walk-ons to start on its O and Dlines. So, I guess I just don't buy the premise, 

 

Wolfman

September 16th, 2013 at 9:22 PM ^

These coaches seem to get the best out of these young men, and of course all the players recruited on the DL have multiple offers, but Pipkins is not the only one to get offers from the SEC.  Wormley, Poggi and a few others have.  Mattison will find this team's identity by week 5. If he has to blitz, he'll do so. I think our back line is probably good enough to play some more man-to-man and allow more blitz packages. I'm certain he didn't think he'd have to make those type of decisions this early in the year based on our schedule.  Hell how many points did the team that play in the NC get on us last year?  And those were players recruited for the OL in Washington and Big Will. And both of those players got offered by everyone, although Washington's were, of course, based on the other side of the ball. I think Will was offered much like Rojo, with the thinking he'd be good on either side. Such, of course, didn't prove to be the case.  However, youngsters like Poggi, Wormley, even Rock had interest from schools from around the country. Rock is an interesting young man. Although his list isn't as long as many of the others, program status of school's offering were much higher. Not unlike Hankins in that regard who in h.s. was looked over basically because many thought he was just fat and lazy.  And recmember Clark was recruited as a backer, no lineman. He has managed to keep his speed for gaining so much weight so quickly, but might tire more easily now. 

Gary_B

September 16th, 2013 at 4:13 PM ^

1. You can't look at sack production and completely ignore scheme and strategy. Mattison has deployed a nickel package in favor of removing an NT for much of the snaps this season given the offenses faced. How do you expect 3 DL to generate sacks, or even decent pressure, when our DBs are playing soft coverage? Hell, our SAM spent a fair portion of the Akron game lined up over a slot receiver.

2. What are your expectations for TFLs and sacks per game? I can assure you that you are going to be EXTREMELY disappointed if you think that 5 sacks and 5 TFLs is the norm. Our offense has only allowed 2 sacks in 3 games; only ONCE by a Notre Dame DL boasting two top-20 draft picks... Clowney, who is generally regarded as one of the best DE in the last decade, averaged one sack per game last year (zero sacks in 4 of those 13 games).

3. None of the young defensive players from other teams you mentioned have had any elite production to date. I think you are drastically overstating their current output. Through 3 games, Ohio has 7 sacks. UM has 5. We've at least played against a good offensive line in Notre Dame, while they've played against some poor to average lines.

alum96

September 16th, 2013 at 5:01 PM ^

As written to someone else on the thread, I didnt look at sack production.  I assume you are watching the same games as I am.  These were 2 MAC teams, and there was little penetration, pressure, or run stopping by this DL.  All the sacks against CMU were by LBers I believe.   Sacks are just 1 stat - watching a team fail to cause any pressure play after play, seeing huge gashes in the run defense down the gut of the defense, seeing outside contain broken by MAC offenses, seeing a complete lack of hurries without blitzes, etc.  It is one thing if ND does that to you (even though Purdue could do all those things in the first half to the ND OL) but 2 MAC teams?  Again it is not about sacks...it is about the eye test.  There is no splash plays by anyone on the D-line no matter the age.  The jury is out on ND's offensive line for now - Purdue was gashing it pretty well in the 1st half - if that was a case of ND sleepwalking after a big game, we will know in the next few weeks when ND plays MSU and Oklahoma.