Mark Dantonio will second-guess this game the rest of his life

Mark Dantonio will second-guess this game the rest of his life

Submitted by team126 on October 30th, 2016 at 6:42 AM

LIke him or not, Mark Dantonio is a great football coach. This season has not been kind to his Spartans, and I am pretty sure he is going to second-guess this last one in late October 2016 the rest of his professional life.

A few decisions will haunt him like forever:

1. Why didn't I start Brian in the first place?

2. Why didn't I just run LJ throughout the game, instead of giving snaps to Holmes?

3. 4th down, goal lines, I should, I mean SHOULD, take the field goals!!! Damn it!!!

4. What in my Dinosaur brain was I thinking about getting those 2 pts? Seriously Mark, pride before the fall? 

 

On a side note, Harbaugh and gang will take pride in winning in East Lansing, and learn what we need to correct in particular late Q4. 

 

Asked about MSU, Dantonio unintentionally references Ric Flair

Asked about MSU, Dantonio unintentionally references Ric Flair

Submitted by OC Alum91 on February 6th, 2016 at 12:58 AM

 

"We've always taken a systematic approach to recruiting, we try not to have too much 'flair'..... um....(breaks into smile)  I guess he's (Ric Flair's) down there,.... I don't know what to say, it just sort of slipped..."

 

Not a huge deal (maybe just an unintentional pun more than anything else), but seems to me that when asked about MSU's approach to recruiting, Dantonio inadvertently says "flair", makes the connection to SOTS in his mind, and then laughs out loud.  At least he shows a sense of humor to laugh at his unintentional advertisement for UM.

 

Because of SOTS, *everyone* is thinking about UM, even MSU.  MSU's head coach is supposed to be talking about MSU, but he instead reminds people about UM.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVkg1j2qdGc

(around 2:20)

New coaches, wins and losses

New coaches, wins and losses

Submitted by dnak438 on September 10th, 2014 at 12:16 AM

A couple of days ago I compiled Hoke's win-loss record, looking specifically at road v. home v. neutral site and the differences between the Vegas line and the actual win differential. I was curious, though -- and maybe this was prompted by a comment I saw somewhere -- how other successful coaches at our rivals had fared recently. That is, was Hoke's downward trend normal? Abnormal? Is there, in fact, a normal?

Here are the results (click to embiggen):

 

Some notes:

  • Hoke is most like Meyer: a string of victories at the start with a slow (inevitable) decline, although Meyer was able to string together an amazing 24-0 start at Ohio State.
  • Kelly and Dantonio are more similar: a difficult first year followed by a fairly consistent improvement in overall record.
  • Rodriguez is a real outlier: he never really got about .500, so never showed the overall improvement that Kelly and Dantonio did.

Hoke's downward slide looks ominous. What if we look on the brighter side, however, and project a 9-3 season, with losses to Michigan State and Ohio State but victories against the rest of the schedule? We get something like this (I'm not projecting the other coaches' records here):

That looks significantly better: essentially Hoke would be neck-and-neck with Kelly at the end of his year four, with a better overall record than Danotio's first four years. That's not bad.

Even if we project an 8-4 season this year -- say we lose to Penn State under the lights -- the overall record ain't too shabby:

The question, then, may be: is Hoke better than a .700 career coach? The difference between .700 and .750 is pretty palpable. Lloyd's career record was .753, Moeller's was .758, Bo's was .796 (at Michigan only for the latter two coaches). The scene of college football is significantly different now than it was in the 1970s and 1980s, but it's probably fair to say that Michigan fans and alumni reasonably expect to win 3 out of every 4 games, even if we were never happy with Lloyd or Moeller's tendency to drop the occasional game to undermatched opponents (a loss at home to an unranked Illinois in 1993, my first year at Michigan, still stings a bit).

There's no doubt that the end of last year and this year is a bit of a trough for Michigan football: we're rebuliding, not reloading, despite the addition of Peppers. At least that has to be the positive take, anyway; the negative take would be that in the coming years the slide continues, and Hoke's line on the graph above will cross Dantonio's in 2015.

My overall take is more positive than I thought it would be when I started: if Hoke can hold serve this year with a 9-3 record and continue to bring in top talent, then there is a good case to be made that things will rebound. If those things happen, then on paper Hoke and Kelly look awfully similar, and I think that we probably think that whatever Kelly's many faults, he's got Notre Dame football on the right track in terms of the on-the-field performance.

Yet as I type those sentences about Michigan they seem awfully optimistic... far more optimistic than I currently feel.

EDIT: Per the suggestion by LandonC in the comments below, here is Hoke's ten year  game rolling win percentage vs. Kelly's, Dantonio's, and RR's:

Observations on the Spartans

Observations on the Spartans

Submitted by troublet1969 on August 31st, 2013 at 4:04 AM

After watching the Spartans play this evening, I had the strange feeling that I had seen this team before but I could not quite place where.  The game, which had about 22 punts , was not  "must see TV" by any means but it did have a purpose for many conference opponents fans.  What are we going to have to deal with...?  

From what I was able to see, the Spartans have still got a decent defensive unit.  They seem very opportunistic in trying to force turnovers and getting after the QB.  The offense was atrocious and Mr. Dantonio will be in the hospital if this happens against the Irish when they play here pretty soon.  Between Maxwell and the other QB that played, I do not know if they can honestly say that they have a shot at winning against he top tier conference teams!  O'Connor the kid from my town in Ohio (Lima) did not play.  I thought that I had heard that he was doing well in camp but maybe Dantonio thought he should continue to hide in the weeds a little longer with that one.

I know that I should wait a few games before getting too excited thinking that we will go in to East Lansing and smack them around for 4 qtrs but I cannot help it.  I sure as heck better watch us play tomorrow before writing that check but that team that I thought I had seen before was in that same stadium but it was coached by John L. Smith then...

Their defense did have some spectacular plays one of which will easily be compared to Charles Woodson's leaping, one handed, masterpiece...though the degree of difficulty on his was exponentially higher since he was near the sideline.  There are not many teams that can win with depending primarily on their defense.  Since we have seen Indiana and Minnesota both display the ability to score points so far, is there anybody out there beside me that thinks that Mark Dantonio should be glad that he did not open with either of them?

Your thoughts please...

This is to all of you that had negative responses about a Sparty thread.  This was intended for light discussion.  It was not an exhaustive study on the teams capabilities or dissertation on how much they hate us.  If you didn't want to read it, the solution was very simple.  I have no love for fellow Michigan fans that feel the need to nit pick the other posts because they are so enlightened.  I am a casual reader of many of your posts...this is not that serious folks.  Life is short, calm the heck down!

 

Dantonio Dress-Up: Smilin' Mark's Pump n' Lube

Dantonio Dress-Up: Smilin' Mark's Pump n' Lube

Submitted by Sven_Da_M on August 23rd, 2013 at 9:44 AM

It's "goin' to work," Sparty-style, according to the Freep:

Mark Dantonio wore his “camp shirt” today, a nod to the blue-collar approach he seeks from his team this season.

And, here he is, in a low-res picture:

 

That's a Dantonio smile.  It really is.  The snappy label?  Here's the details:

Everyone on the team got one of the shirts, he said — short sleeves, collars and sewn-on name tags with “Spartan Moving” below the names.

First off, "blue collar?"  Really?  It's the primary color of your only real rival!

Secondly, "Spartan Moving?"  As in "Movin' Out?" Like after another year like last year...

Finally, those of us who have truly been blue collar once (and not had to fashion a cute outfit for make-believe) know that movers don't have work shirts with their names on them.  (Protip: It's because many are day-laborers, and the moving company wouldn't spring for such items except for generic models sporting names like "Bub" or "Tony" or "Melvin" or "Mark.")

So I would suggest that if Coach D wants to channel a timeless blue-collar service provider, this is a good guy to model:

  

Mark better practice smiling because here is a candid picture of The Sparty AD and President upon recently hearing of another recruiting class of 1 and 2 stars:

 

 

As Dantonio says: Go Blue (Collar)! 

 

 

The Bye Week Corollary

The Bye Week Corollary

Submitted by hart20 on October 13th, 2011 at 4:36 PM

Soulfire21, went over Debunking the Bye Week Myth earlier this week, showing that in general, teams coming off of a bye week usually lose. From 2000 to 2010, teams coming off of a bye week have a winning percentage of .480, a shade less than .500. However, Big Ten teams are noticeably worse when coming off of a bye week; Big Ten teams have a winning percentage of .350 when coming off of a bye week. Big Ten teams are below the national average by .150. By default, nationally, teams playing teams coming off of a bye week have a winning percentage of .520 and teams playing Big Ten teams coming off of a bye week have a winning percentage of .650.

Although the average team performs worse when coming off of a bye week, I wondered if there was an exception. Some coaches have their teams perform better than average after bye weeks and some coaches have their teams perform worse than average, right? This also means that some coaches have to be better than average when playing against a team coming off of a bye week and some coaches have to be worse than average when playing against a team coming off of a bye week.

Before I started writing this diary, I predicted that Mark Dantonio would have a below average record playing after a bye week and that Brady Hoke would have an above average record playing against teams who were coming off of bye weeks. I had no rational reason for these predictions. I just don’t like Dantonio and I like Brady Hoke.

My method for checking my predictions was quite simple, just look at the W/L record of Mark Dantonio (as a Head Coach) coming off of a Bye Week and then look at the record of Brady Hoke (as a head coach) playing against teams who are coming off of a bye week.

 

Mark Dantonio Coming Off of Bye Weeks

 

Year

Team

Opponent

W/L

Score

Dantonio Final Record

Opp. Final Record

2004

Cincinnati

Memphis

W

49-10

7-5

8-4

2004

Cincinnati

South Florida

W

45-23

7-5

4-7

2005*

Cincinnati

Miami (OH)

L

44-16

4-7

7-4

2005*

Cincinnati

South Florida

L

31-16

4-7

6-6

2006

Cincinnati

West Virginia

L

42-24

8-5

11-2

2007

MSU

N/A

N/A

N/A

7-6

N/A

2008

MSU

Penn St.

L

49-18

9-4

11-2

2009

MSU

N/A

N/A

N/A

6-7

N/A

2010

MSU

Purdue

W

35-31

11-2

4-8

 

*10 day bye week instead of a full 14 day bye week

 

Interesting Notes

-Mark Dantonio, as a head coach, is 3-4 when coming off of a bye week. That is good for a winning percentage of 0.428. That puts Dantonio below the national average by .052 but above the Big Ten average by .078.

-As MSU’s head coach, Dantonio is 1-1 coming off of a bye week. That’s a winning percentage of .500, .020 above the national average and .150 above the Big Ten average.

-Biggest loss: 31 points in 2008. MSU vs. PSU

-Smallest loss: 15 points in 2005. Cincinnati vs. USF

-Average loss margin: 23 points

-Biggest win: 39 points in 2004. Cincinnati vs. Memphis

-Smallest win: 4 points in 2010. MSU vs. Purdue

-Average win margin:  21.7 points

-Dantonio is 2-0 against teams with losing records. That is a winning percentage of 1.000, .520 above the national average and .650 above the Big Ten average.

-Dantonio is 1-4 against teams who are .500 or better. That is a winning percentage of .200, .280 below the national average and .150 below the Big Ten average.

 

 

 

Brady Hoke Playing Against Teams Who Are Coming Off of a Bye Week

 

Year

Team

Opponent

W/L

Score

Brady Hoke’s Final Record

Opp. Final Record

2003

Ball St.

N/A

N/A

N/A

4-8

N/A

2004

Ball St.

N/A

N/A

N/A

2-9

N/A

2005

Ball St.

N/A

N/A

N/A

4-7

N/A

2006

Ball St.

Buffalo

W

55-25

5-7

2-10

2007

Ball St.

West. Kentucky

W

35-12

7-6

7-5

2007*

Ball St.

Toledo

W

41-20

7-6

5-7

2008

Ball St.

Indiana

W

42-20

12-1

3-9

2008*

Ball St.

North. Illinois

W

45-14

12-1

6-6

2008*

Ball St.

West. Michigan

W

45-22

12-1

9-3

2009*

San Diego St.

Southern Utah

W

35-19

4-8

5-6

2009

San Diego St.

UNLV

L

28-24

4-8

5-7

2010

San Diego St.

New Mexico

W

30-20

9-4

1-11

2010*

San Diego St.

UNLV

W

48-14

9-4

2-11

*10 day bye-week

 

Interesting Notes

-Brady Hoke is 9-1 (!) when playing against teams who are coming off of a bye week. That’s a winning percentage of .900 (!). He’s outperforming the national average by .380 and the Big Ten average by .250.

- Biggest/Smallest/Average/Only loss:  4 points in 2009. SDSU vs. UNLV

-Biggest win: 34 points in 2010. SDSU vs. UNLV

-Smallest win: 10 points in 2010. SDSU vs. New Mexico

-Average win margin:  23.3 points

-Brady Hoke is 6-1 against teams with losing records. That is a winning percentage of .857, .337 above the national average and .207 above the Big Ten average.

-Brady Hoke is 3-0 against teams who are .500 or better. That is a winning percentage of 1.000, .480 above the national average and .350 above the Big Ten average.

 

 

Upon taking a closer look, Dantonio outperforming the Big Ten is not very impressive for 3 reasons. Reason #1: Saying you’re doing better than the worst is inherently not impressive. You’re still doing worse than the best. Reason #2:  2 of his wins came in 2004 at Cincinnati, his first year as a head coach. After 2004, Dantonio lost every single game coming off of a bye week after until last year against Purdue. Even in that game, MSU barely managed to pull out the victory against a bad, 4-8 Purdue team. He clearly struggles in the games after bye weeks. Reason #3: Dantonio is very, very bad after bye weeks when he playing against teams with a winning record (1-4).

For the good guys, Brady Hoke is great when playing against teams coming off of a bye week. His only loss against a team coming off of a bye week was by 4 points. Although most of his wins came against teams who ended their seasons with losing records, he is undefeated against teams with winning records (3-0).  He easily outperforms both the national and Big Ten averages.

Bye weeks are of no advantage to MSU, and actually might hurt MSU’s chance of victory. MSU coming off of a bye week is more of an advantage to Michigan than to anyone else.  Mark Dantonio’s ineptness playing after a bye week coupled with Brady Hoke’s adeptness playing against teams coming off of a bye week point only to good things for Michigan.

 

 

P.S. This is my first Diary, so let me know if there is anything I should change, not change, do, or not do in the future. I’ll probably write something similar to this for the Purdue game, looking at how Brady Hoke fares when playing after bye weeks. 

A Look Back: MGoBlog 11/6/2007, following the Big Brother/Pride-Fall comments

A Look Back: MGoBlog 11/6/2007, following the Big Brother/Pride-Fall comments

Submitted by FL on October 10th, 2011 at 7:00 PM

On occasion, I find it illuminating to peer into the MGoBlog archives and "check the pulse" of the blog at certain important points in the past. A particularly relevant post from Brian below, following the infamous 2007 contest and the postgame comments from Mike Hart and Mark Dantonio:

http://mgoblog.com/content/spartans-your-profession-loser

Oh, now it's personal? You mean it's unlike all those other games when a host of kids who never even got looked at by Michigan (save three or four per year) played their instate rival and then immediately collapsed afterward? Oh shit. We are in serious trouble now. It's personal. I am liquidating my assets and moving to Tahiti, as Michigan will never beat Michigan State again.