Preview 2015: Quarterback

Preview 2015: Quarterback

Submitted by Brian on August 27th, 2015 at 1:55 PM

Previously: Podcast 7.0. The Story.

Jan 3, 2011; Miami, FL, USA; Stanford Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck (12) and head coach Jim Harbaugh celebrate after defeating the Virginia Tech Hokies 40-12 in the 2011 Orange Bowl at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Douglas Jones-USA TODAY Sports

to be the man you gotta recruit the man

QUARTERBACK Yr
Jake Rudock Sr.*
Shane Morris Jr.
Alex Malzone Fr.

It's a new era in all possible ways at quarterback. Michigan has exhausted their supply of raw passers with thrilling athleticism; they have also cast aside the previous coaching staff in favor of one in which the head coach is also the QB coach. He is one of the best in the country. Possibly the best.

In Harbaugh's tenure as a coach he…

  • helped Rich Gannon(!) win the 2002 NFL MVP award,
  • developed non-scholarship San Diego's Josh Johnson into a third-place finisher for the Walter Payton, the I-AA Heisman, and the first draft pick in school history,
  • recruited and developed Andrew Luck,
  • made Alex Smith look like a legit NFL QB just long enough for him to sign what some regard as the worst contract in the NFL, and
  • advocated for, drafted, and developed Colin Kaepernick into a legit starting NFL QB when few thought he could make the transition from the Nevada pistol.

That is strike after strike after strike in not only player development but also talent identification. The contrast between Harbaugh and Al Borges*, who has still never seen a quarterback he recruited start as an upperclassman, could not be greater.

So when Harbaugh saw the state of the most important position in football at Michigan, it's no surprise that he reacted like Kirby. Harbaugh imported a grad transfer (Jake Rudock), a regular transfer (John O'Korn), a second quarterback recruit in 2015, and two recruits in 2016.

Only one of those guys is relevant to this preview: the graduate.

*[Doug Nussmeier has a good track record but only had a year in which it was difficult to make an impact. The only QB on the roster he is responsible for bringing in is freshman Alex Malzone.]

HE CAME FROM DEEPEST IOWA IN SEARCH OF RECEIVERS AND LOVE

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Rudock was kind of a big deal at media day [Bryan Fuller]

RATING: 3

JAKE RUDOCK will find at least one as long as he keeps his interception rate where it was last year.

Michigan's previous quarterback, Devin Gardner, turned into a turnover piñata sometime after his soul left his body for the third time. While it's hard to blame him much when his career seems like the kind of experiment that ends in a war crimes trial, the sheer quantity of errors he dished out over the course of last season will make a boring quarterback seem like a godsend.

Rudock is just what the doctor ordered in that department. Of the 100 quarterbacks with the most attempts last year, Rudock was 11th in interception rate. 1.4% of his passes got picked off last year. Gardner was dead last, with a rate almost quadruple Rudock's.

There is a cost associated with that, as any Iowa fan still capable of speech will tell you. This is it:

That is Jake Rudock's reputation: a boring boring boring game manager who idolized Brian Griese and dry toast growing up.

[After THE JUMP: Are Iowa fans wrong? Does Rudock have upside? Whither Morris?]

Mailbag: QB Fight, Recruiting Worries, Dymonte Thomas Spot, Sloxen

Mailbag: QB Fight, Recruiting Worries, Dymonte Thomas Spot, Sloxen

Submitted by Brian on January 27th, 2015 at 3:10 PM

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Gentry vs Malzone: FIGHT

Quarterback recruiting policies.

I know that Harbaugh has every right to recruit his own personnel, but considering that Malzone is already on campus, did he just get royally screwed? If he never suits up, can he transfer without having to sit out?

thanks,
CH

The idea that a quarterback would be screwed over by the addition of another guy at his position in the same class is Hoke-era thinking that should be quickly discarded. Wilton Speight doesn't seem to mind:

sent in the immediate aftermath of Gentry's commit

Every other position sees fierce battles; QB should be no different. And even if Malzone is put off by the idea of sharing a spot in the class with Gentry, I think that's more than offset by the idea of getting coached by Harbaugh and Jedd Fisch.

FWIW, Malzone could transfer after his first semester at Michigan. He would have to redshirt and then would be a redshirt freshman wherever he ended up, as Steven Threet was when he fled Paul Johnson's triple option system at Georgia Tech.

The more likely exit scenario for the quarterbacks who find themselves down the depth chart in the midst of cutthroat competition is to get a degree in three years and then transfer with two years to play two. An increasing number of elite QB recruits are throwing themselves in grinders like Michigan's with that idea in their back pocket. If Michigan is going to take two QBs a year that should be part of the pitch: the least you leave here with is a Michigan degree and three years of kickass coaching. Malzone has a head start on that with his early enrollment.

By the way, with reports that elite CA QB KJ Costello is heavily interested in Michigan, this could be the respective first two QB recruiting years of Hoke and Harbaugh:

  • Hoke: Russell Bellomy.
  • Harbaugh: Malzone, Gentry, DeWeaver, Costello.

That's one three star previously committed to Purdue versus what is probably four four-star recruits. (Hoke did recruit Malzone but Malzone is a block-M true believer who stuck with his plan to enroll early despite Michigan not having a coach at that juncture.) One of the major reasons the Hoke list is so short is that in deference to Shane Morris they didn't take another quarterback in his year… or the year in front of him. That was a disastrous decision. Let's not do that any more.

Harbaugh won't: at Stanford he took an average of two QBs a year.

Two stars bad. More stars good.

There are only a couple guys on the board who fit that description: recent OH OL commit Nolan Ulizio and as-yet-unoffered FL CB Markel Bush. Everyone else is at least a three star and—unlike many of the transitional Hoke recruits—courted by or committed to high level BCS schools. (Hoke got decommits from Indiana, Vanderbilt, and Minnesota; Harbaugh has flipped guys from Texas, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.) So Harbaugh is already doing well.

As for the two stars, Bush is clearly a backup plan in case they don't get two of the four guys they've offered (Iman Marshall, Will Lockett, Damon Arnette, and Jarius Adams). Ulizio is an offensive lineman. Offensive linemen are less likely to fulfill recruiting expectations than any other position, and as you say Michigan had opportunities to look at other, more highly-rated guys. They passed. Is that a concern?

Five different Stanford linemen were first team All Pac 10 players during Harbaugh's tenure at Stanford; all five were three stars. Harbaugh and Drevno could recruit Pokemon and I'd be okay with it.

Oh, and…

image

…let's cool it on the judgy bits just yet.

[After THE JUMP: Marrow, length of tenure, Dymonte Thomas, sloxen, Gary Danielson email]

Hokepoints: The Best Big Ten QB?

Hokepoints: The Best Big Ten QB?

Submitted by Seth on October 14th, 2014 at 4:26 PM

acecorn

Nice job picking a QB, Ace. Here's your reward.

While re-watching the M-PSU punt-fest my brother made an interesting comment: "It's amazing what's happened to two of the best quarterbacks in the conference." If you ever again need to point to something to show that the offense means more than the quarterback, this Big Ten season has that in spades. What it doesn't have is an answer to the question: who IS the best QB in the conference?

I have no idea. Of guys I expected big things from, Braxton Miller (injury) and Tre Roberson (transfer) didn't make it out of the preseason, Gardner played his way behind a true sophomore who obviously couldn't play, Hackenberg's been a tackling dummy, and when I got down to Cook my Sparty slappy brother shook his head and declined the nomination.

Lower down, Sudfeld is now out for the season but he wasn't world-beating before. C.J. Brown, true to form, has been keeping pace just behind Gardner; a wrist injury against Indiana has ceded snaps to Caleb Rowe. Nebraska and Iowa aren't getting anything more than mediocre from their 2nd year guys. Trevor Siemian is not a throw deity of any sort. Etling hasn't been good enough for Boiler fans to stop mentioning that Michigan stole Bellomy(!). Wisconsin's QB situation has been awful. Illinois thought they had something when transfer Wes Lunt was picking apart bad defenses, but he broke his leg, which is apparently 4-6 weeks these days.

Everybody's played only a few real opponents, and everybody's been a product of his offense so stats are only a little useful. Last year ESPN's Dean Oliver rolled out his "QBR" metric which is based on Mathlete-like expected points on a 100-level scale; 50 is average. Mouseover the headers for clarification (explanation here):

PLAYER Pass EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
Connor Cook-MSU 23.2 3.2 -1.6 0.6 25.3 175 81.5 81.3
Gary Nova-RU 25.3 6.3 -4.7 0.4 27.3 187 77.1 78.2
J.T. Barrett-OSU 22.3 8.0 -7.1 0.5 23.7 220 72.3 74.4
Tom Armstrong-NEB 13.2 7.9 -3.8 1.0 18.2 246 63.2 63.9
Jake Rudock-IOWA 25.7 2.6 -3.7 2.2 26.8 193 73.5 60.8
Wes Lunt-ILL 31.6 -2.0 -6.1 1.1 24.3 222 67.8 58.1
Devin Gardner-UM 14.7 5.0 -9.3 -0.1 10.3 210 52.9 56.4
Mitch Leidner-MN 6.8 4.4 -5.9 -0.1 5.2 134 50.7 56.3
Nate Sudfeld-IND 10.9 3.6 -4.4 2.0 12.1 221 54.4 56.2
C.J. Brown-MD 11.7 7.0 -8.0 0.7 11.4 224 52.5 50.0
Tanner McEvoy-WIS 2.1 5.6 -2.2 1.1 6.6 144 51.8 47.4
Trevor Siemian-NW 20.1 -0.3 -11.3 -0.1 8.4 276 46.1 46.2
C. Hackenberg-PSU 16.2 -1.0 -14.2 -0.6 0.3 299 38.1 37.9
Danny Etling-PUR 3.0 1.7 -5.5 -1.1 -1.8 201 35.2 30.7

I pulled the raw QBR in each game to plot it against Football Outsiders' S&P+ so you can see the individual performances in context. Gardner's games are labeled and Michigan's remaining opponents are shown.

chart1

click embigs

[after the jump: trends, discussion]

Preview 2014: Quarterback

Preview 2014: Quarterback

Submitted by Brian on August 25th, 2014 at 12:43 PM

Previously: Podcast 6.0. The Story.

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[Eric Upchurch]

QUARTERBACK Yr
Devin Gardner Sr.*
Shane Morris So.
Wilton Speight Fr.

It says somethin' about somethin' that Michigan had even the barest semblance of a Quarterback Controversy this offseason. It's not so much that Brady Hoke was going around saying it to people—football coaches' public statement are 95% motivational lies. It's more that a lot of people wanted it to be true.

By the midst of spring practice it seemed like half of the Michigan fanbase had an I WANT TO BELIEVE poster they'd adorned with Shane Morris's head in their room. Beat writers sent out a never-ending stream of WHAT ABOUT THE QUARTERBACK CONTROVERSY articles that message boards passed around, nodding sagely about, until yrs truly was twitching every time I checked twitter. Finally, the dam broke:

WHEN IS THE LAST TIME MICHIGAN REPLACED A FIFTH YEAR SENIOR QUARTERBACK WITH AN UNDERCLASSMAN VOLUNTARILY

DON'T LOOK IT UP I'LL TELL YOU NEVER

NEVER EVER

WHAT WAS IT ABOUT SHANE MORRIS'S PERFORMANCE IN THE BOWL GAME THAT CONVINCES YOU HE'S THE GUY, EXACTLY

THAT ONE SCREEN PASS HE THREW THAT WENT A LONG WAY

OR THAT OTHER SCREEN PASS HE THREW THAT WENT A LONG WAY

OR THAT END AROUND THAT TECHNICALLY COUNTS AS A PASS

I MEAN

THE DUDE AVERAGED 5.2 YPA, WHICH IS THREET/SHERIDAN PRODUCTION

HE THREW AN INTERCEPTION THE INSTANT MICHIGAN LET HIM THROW DOWNFIELD

MICHIGAN SCORED SIX MEANINGFUL POINTS

DEVIN GARDNER WAS 80% DEAD MOST OF THIS YEAR AND STILL HAD 8.6 YPA

CUMONG MAN

That about sums it up. The moment passed, people were yelled at to take their posters down, and Hoke named Gardner the starter in the middle of fall camp. But the discontent still lingers.

[After THE JUMP: SURROUNDED BY THE ENEMY STOP OUR LINES ARE BROKEN STOP SEND LOVE TO MY WIFE STOP]

The 2015 Quarterback Picture 2.0

The 2015 Quarterback Picture 2.0

Submitted by Brandon Brown on October 28th, 2013 at 4:10 PM

QB Position

About three weeks ago I posted an article about which 2015 signal callers could be next in line for an offer. With no game to prepare for this week the coaching staff decided to travel the country checking in on recruits and I decided to do the same thing (from the comfort of my couch) with a focus on the quarterbacks.

I originally created a list of seven prospects consisting of Kevin Dillman, Nick Johns, Sheriron Jones, Kyle Kearns, Alex Malzone, Riley Neal, and Brady White. After a visit to the Indiana game I think Tyree Jackson could also be thrown into the mix at this point.

I was able to talk to each young man this weekend and see how often the coaches have been in contact with them, and try to gauge the interest level from the coaches, as well as from the recruits. In doing so I think I’ve identified a top tier of four targets on the quarterback big board.

Kevin Dillman – La Mirada High School – La Mirada, CA: The coaches have not been in contact with Dillman at all recently which is a bit surprising during a bye week that included traveling across the country as well as social media communication. He appears to be down the list as a secondary target.

Tyree Jackson – Mona Shores High School – Muskegon, MI: Jackson visited Ann Arbor for his first game experience against Indiana and had a great time which I reported here, but since his visit he has had zero contact with the coaching staff. He will continue to be a name to watch, but he also appears to be down the list a bit.

Nick Johns – Gonzaga High School – Washington D.C.: Johns told me that he speaks with Coach Mallory almost every day on Facebook. With so much contact I was curious as to what was discussed when they chat. “He just asks me what kind of team we areNick Johns playing that week and what kind of defense they run. He tells me to try and identify our strengths and weaknesses against that team. He just tries to assess my football IQ.” Johns told me that Coach Mallory hasn’t exactly mentioned an offer yet, but Nick seems to feel pretty wanted based on how often they communicate. He did say that he would love to have an offer from such a great school like Michigan. I believe Johns is one of the top tier targets at this point.

Sheriron Jones – Rancho Verde High School – Moreno Valley, CA: Jones has not had any recent contact with the coaching staff at all and he even said that when he tries to call them, they never answer. That tells me that he is not a top priority at this time.

Kyle Kearns – Foothill High School – Pleasanton, CA: Kearns had a legitimate talk with Coach Borges on Wednesday evening that tentatively set up a “Wilton-Speight-like” visit in the Spring. “Coach Borges said that he plans to make it out this SKyle Kearnspring to check me out. He talked about how they’ve only offered one guy and I’m a guy that he really likes. I see myself fitting in really well in his offensive scheme from what he told me.” I asked Kearns how he’d feel if an offer did eventually come and he simply said, “It would be huge!” He even flirted with the idea of committing on the spot if that did happen. “I can’t say I’d commit on the spot just yet. There are some other schools that I’ve built a strong relationship with and I don’t want to put the cart in front of the horse.” (He actually used that phrase. I like this kid.) Kearns talked about how attractive Michigan is with George Campbell and Damien Harris already in the fold for the 2015 class. “With Michigan getting a top running back and wide receiver for 2015 it makes the decision that much easier. Couple that with world class academics and the biggest stadium in football…man.” After talking with Kearns and hearing his very obvious interest and discussing his regular talks with Coach Borges I now believe he may be the front-runner for the next quarterback offer.

Alex Malzone – Brother Rice High School – Bloomfield Hills, MI: Malzone Alex Malzonehas set up a regular communication schedule with Coach Borges that involves him calling the offensive coordinator every Thursday night between 9 and 9:30 pm. Borges also made it very clear to Alex that he is in the top tier of quarterbacks being evaluated. With Malzone being right in Michigan’s backyard and understanding what it means to be the quarterback at Michigan, he is a very real possibility to receive an offer. I believe Malzone will continue to be evaluated and being a Michigander is an advantage that has helped him land in the top tier.

Riley Neal – Yorktown High School – Yorktown, IN: Neal has alreadRiley Nealy been talking to Coach Borges quite regularly, also on Thursdays, for a few weeks now. They usually talk about his film, each other’s seasons, and just the general recruiting process. Neal and I talked about some other quarterbacks getting attention from Michigan and he was very informed about the entire situation. He knew of Dillman, Malzone, and Kearns and also that the coaching staff was evaluating his position right now, which tells me he is interested and intuitive when it comes to the process. He is in the top tier. 

Brady White – Hart High School – Newhall, CA: From what most here have expressed about Brady White this will be an unfortunate update, but he has not been hearing from the coaching staff at all lately and didn’t once during the bye week. His interest in Michigan seems legitimate but he may be tough to lure from the west coast.

In conclusion I feel like the top tier of four targets consists of Nick Johns, Kyle Kearns, Alex Malzone, and Riley Neal. These four quarterbacks are in regular contact with the coaching staff and all express sincere interest in being recruited by Michigan. At first glance I thought Dillman, Jones, and White all hadn’t heard from the coaches simply due to the fact that they are all California kids, which can be problematic due to the time difference and the fact that those kids just don’t leave their geographic area too often. That notion is of course debunked by the fact that fellow California native Kyle Kearns may be atop the big board right now. After this week my list does, in fact, put Kearns at the top and looks like this (last time's ranking in parentheses):

  1. Kyle Kearns (2)
  2. Riley Neal (3)
  3. Alex Malzone (7) 
  4. Nick Johns (6)

Others: Dillman (1), White (5), Jones (4), Jackson (NR)

This is not necessarily my wish list, this is just how I feel the big board may look somewhere in Schembechler Hall, based on frequency of contact, expressed interest from both sides, and skill-set for Borges’ system. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out over the next couple of months.

The 2015 Quarterback Picture

The 2015 Quarterback Picture

Submitted by Brandon Brown on October 6th, 2013 at 10:05 AM

QB Position

Michigan has only offered one quarterback in the 2015 class in Josh Rosen, and he will not be a Wolverine. He told me that he’s already got a pretty good idea of where he wants to play his college ball, and that Michigan is too cold for him. That being said, which signal-callers could be on deck for a Michigan offer?

Kevin Dillman
Dual-threat Dillman is probably Michigan's top target for the class.

Kevin Dillman (La Mirada HS – La Mirada, CA) Kevin Dillman is an interesting recruit as he was born in Sweden and has only lived in the United States for about three years. In his short time playing football in America he has garnered a ton of attention and is rated as a 5-star quarterback on some recruiting services. He recently named a top two of Nebraska and Michigan and he looks like the next best bet to receive an offer. He also hasn’t been shy and has openly expressed his affinity for the Wolverines and might be the most likely to commit from this list. Dillman has double-digit offers already from Nebraska, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, UCLA and more. Couple that with his prototypical size-- 6’4”, 225--and he’s worthy of his 5-star status.

He possesses elite athleticism, playing wide receiver, kick returner, and safety for his high school squad. This is not your typical pretty-boy QB; he’s physical, tough, and looks natural running the ball or dropping back and setting his feet when letting it fly. He has some of the more impressive film out there for 2015 QBs.

I think it is a question of when rather than if he receives a Michigan offer. Dillman told me that he’s taking his recruitment slowly right now to focus on his season but his knowledge for the Wolverines is always growing.

I actually don’t know much about Michigan history and stuff right now but I like the fact that they’re moving back to a more pro-style offense. The reason Michigan has been standing out for me is because growing up in Sweden I always looked up to and tried to learn from Tom Brady. The fact that he went to Michigan is the reason why I’ve had my eyes open for Michigan.

Dillman currently lives with a host family in California and tells me that distance will be a non-issue for him as he has already went through the “moving out of the house” transition. He wouldn’t quite name Michigan his favorite, but he said they are definitely up there for him and he plans to get more questions answered about his recruitment at the end of his season.

More targets after the jump.

Preview 2013: Quarterback

Preview 2013: Quarterback

Submitted by Brian on August 26th, 2013 at 12:43 PM

Previously: Podcast 5.0, The Story.

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SOON. Via Maize and Blue Nation.

QUARTERBACK Yr
Devin Gardner Jr.*
Shane Morris Fr.
Brian Cleary Fr.*

The biggest debate in Michigan fandom when Devin Gardner started taking warmup snaps at Gopher Stadium was whether to cut down, or across. Denard Robinson was incapacitated for God knows how long—it would turn out to be the duration of his career, at least as far as throwing was concerned—and Russell Bellomy was fresh off a 3/16, 38-yard, 3 INT performance in the second half of the Nebraska game. Doomy doom spread its doomy fingers across the land.

"Down" was winning handily through the first quarter as Michigan went three-and-out, two-and-out (an interception) and three-and-out in the first quarter. Then…

BOOM QUARTERBACK OUT OF NOWHERE

RATING: 4.5

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via many valiant mgousers

DEVIN GARDNER
arm strength
opposite hash no problem
can't step in no problem
hitch strikes
opposite hash again
zip in zone
legs!
slippery NW TD
third and eleven ok
very accurate deep
late but accurate
beauty corner
51-yarder
brilliant short flick throws
Funchess up high
toying with the defense
pass run pass TD
inaccurate when feet not set
TD, but way inside
corner way short
some bad INTs
misreads cover three

Okay, we'll go with "across." For now.

Things got better from there. Gardner completed 47 yard passes to Gallon and Roundtree and even a 22-yarder to Jerald Robinson. (Yeah, remember that guy? I tell you, you think you know everything about Michigan football and then you're shocked when Jerald Robinson shows up on a box score not even a year old.)

Gardner executed a gameplan that was conservative in run/pass breakdown (only 18 attempts for Gardner versus 41 runs) but not in type of pass called (Gardner averaged 13 yards an attempt) as Michigan gradually blew out the Gophers.

And lo, your author gazed upon it and said

I still find myself way on the conservative end of reaction to Gardner's performance. … Gardner had plenty of wide open dudes, and his throws were erratic. On the one hand, there was the picture-perfect bomb to Gallon; on the other, Dileo and Roundtree bailed Gardner out hardcore on the touchdown drive that put the game out of reach. The Dileo catch was a circus catch all the way, one that could have been made much easier.

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Roundtree == Gardner TARP. MVictors

Meanwhile Roundtree broke open by yards and would have had an easy touchdown if Gardner had gotten the ball to the endzone on the opposite hash. As it was he had to circus Michigan out of an interception.

The commenters descended upon the author in their wrath.

The UFR basically bore this out. Here's Gardner's chart for the season:

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR DSR
Minnesota 3 7(1) 4 2(1) 2* 2 - 3 4 64%
Northwestern 4 16(2) 2 1 3* 2(1) 2(1) 2 5 75%
Iowa 3 16(4) - 2(1) 2 1 - 1 4 79%
Ohio State 3 11(1) 2 5* 2 1 - 3 2 62%
South Carolina 4 16(2) 2 7 3 4 1 2 2 55%

note: moved one SC IN to BA based on a UFR correction from Space Coyote.

64% is solidly in the "meh" range, though it doesn't take those four scrambles into account. Add those in and it's a B, B+ performance. Also, low sample size and an offensive coordinator seemingly determined to keep things on the ground. I was leery that the things that didn't seem repeatable from the WRs would not repeat, and Michigan would be in trouble.

The next two weeks were wow experiences. Gardner was lethal against Northwestern

a monster day, especially when you consider those five scrambles included a touchdown on second and goal from the eight and a third and eleven conversion. …

If Gardner can be as consistently accurate on deep balls as he has been so far, four verts is going to be an absolute bitch to defend—zone up and get outnumbered deep or play man and turn your back on this guy:

…Four-fifths of the time Gardner dropped back to pass something good happened, without the aid of an even halfway-credible running game. … there was exactly one inaccurate ball, that an out in the endzone to Gallon that glanced off his fingertips.

…and Iowa, though Iowa was barely trying at that point:

On shorter stuff he's all rolling out and hitting guys in the numbers and zipping hitches in for YAC and look at this thing!

Unstoppable Throw-God Trevor Siemian is like "nice throw bud." It's just ten yards but it is also from a hash to the opposite sideline, there is no coverage in the world that stops it, and given all the other throws Gardner is made that doesn't seem like luck, it just seems like what Gardner does.

The hype was just about to kick in for serious if Michigan could take out Ohio State, but a bad thing happened at a bad time.

[after THE JUMP: accuracy issues, silly numbers from everywhere, redzone efficiency, speed of thought, stand up comedy, and Mr. Burns.]