things go poorly
- Member for
- 4 years 41 weeks
|4 years 41 weeks ago||Not over yet but...||
Hate to sound alarmist, but the rationalization that its only 6 games is fool's gold.
We play twelve non-conference games. Our two hardest non-conference games, Kansas and Connecticut, are yet to come. Utah is rebuilding, but that game is next week, and considering the product we've seen so far, that is at best a 50/50 game.
Let's assume Michigan splits the Uconn/Utah games. They would be 7-5 in the non-conference portion of their schedule.
They would need at least 11 Big 10 wins to have a solid chance at the tournament, and even that may not assure a bid. 11-7 would make us 18-12 overall, and probably put our RPI in the high 40s/low 50s.
We've done a lot of irreparable damage to our NCAA tournament hopes. If UM somehow makes a dramatic turnaround and finishes 12-6 or 13-5 in the Big 10, we've hurt our NCAA seed.
A solid non-conference performance of 9-3 or 10-2 would have resulted in a #5 type seed. Now? 12-6 or 13-5 probably puts us in the 7-8-9 seed range.
This isn't the NBA. After Saturday we'll have played more than 20% of our games. We basically cannot afford another cold spell the rest of the season.