Member for

13 years 7 months
Points
254.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
thanks, but unfortunately no…

EDIT: found, thanks!!

Second the request for a…

Second the request for a steam link, please/thanks

Good stuff, Bigfoot.

Thanks…

Good stuff, Bigfoot.

Thanks for posting the video. Info from folks at WHO support these videos that things in Wuhan are much worse than the reported cases. Their diagnostic systems are overwhelmed and there is a back-log of testing. So anyone trying to calc R0 with this data is working with a lot of misinformation. The real R0 is likely around 2, because they are seemingly always 2, but that's an observation and not an estimate. 

ACE2: doesn't mean that other ethnicities will not be just as afflicted. Need more data on that.

China also built a hospital during SARS... I guess that is a thing that they can do.

This is why I rarely post…

This is why I rarely post here. You can't give an alternate, and in this case highly informed, opinion, w/o being accused of being irrational.

We can care about multiple things at the same time. From a US perspective, individual risk is low. So if folks don't want to worry about this global affair, thats completely fine, ignore it. For some of us that are interested in these things, I was providing prospective. In China, and now soon-to-be many other places, its not just fear. This is a serious outbreak that is only getting worse. 

Best, Nate

Asymptomatic transmission in…

Asymptomatic transmission in Germany from cluster of cases (non-relatives, this just came out)

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

even CFRs of 2-3% is quite high. I’ve seen estimates of up to 10%, but still working on the denominator, so don’t quote that.

Risk for Americans is low, but this still a big global concern. Perfectly legit for people to think about it and care for others around the world. It’s a big topic of discussion for those that live in very international communities (like here in New Haven, CT).

There is no medication, and…

There is no medication, and data on transmission from asymptomatic people means that this will be harder to stop. Don't compare this to flu deaths, it's still going to kill a lot of people before it is over and is worth the concern. Not just a drop in the bucket. Deaths are deaths.

There is already local transmission in Germany, Vietnam, and Chicago (just one local case from a wife that traveled). I'm not trying to fear-monger, just being realistic from working through many outbreaks/epidemics/pandemics in the past. This may be hard to stop and it'll get a lot worse before it gets better. How bad is hard to say.

Yes, Ebola wasn't ever really a threat to the US, but we can also care about people in other places too, right? It was pretty damn bad in West Africa, and is currently bad in the DRC.

And building a new 1000 bed…

And building a new 1000 bed hospital in Wuhan because they ran out of beds. This is not normal flu (though flu can be quite bad). 

This wasn't a release from a…

This wasn't a release from a lab, it was from an animal. Their reservoir is bats, but likely an intermediate animal involved (not sure what... some sort of mammal and not a snake).

Also, yes, flu is bad and…

Also, yes, flu is bad and will likely kill more people this year. get your vaccine. but we are still capable of being worried about and addressing more than one problem at a time.

I don't chime in often, but…

I don't chime in often, but as an actual infectious disease epidemiologists, I'll say a few things.

- It's not a bad strain of the flu. Mortality rate calculations are still in flux, but early estimates are ~10% (similar to SARS & MERS).

- there is asymptomatic transmission, meaning that just checking for fevers will not spot all of the cases (like we could for SARS), making this harder to contain.

- the number of cases has now surpassed SARS (>8000). Estimated peak outbreak is mid to late Feb. We'll see lots of cases. This is bad.

- there is evidence that the China CDC knew that this was really bad a while ago, and cases are vastly underreported. Some of this underreporting is due to the fact that they are constantly reaching their daily testing limits and there is a large back-log.

- there is local transmission in at least Germany, Vietnam, and in the US (Chicago, though needs further validation). We'll likely see outbreaks in other locations too. This is why WHO just classified this as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

- current risk in US is low for anyone who doesn't travel to China (or other places with transmission). This may change.

- please understand that there is a lot of misinformation out there. No, this was not a purposeful release from the Wuhan Institute of Virology; no, this isn't the "snake flu"; no, this isn't a "thermonuclear pandemic" yet. 

-early during outbreaks, there is a "cloud of war" and things we thought we knew will change.

Nathan Grubaugh, PhD, Assistant Professor, Yale School of Public Health

 

"Direct human-to-human

"Direct human-to-human transmission is another possible route of Zika virus infection. These routes notably include transmission from mother to child during pregnancy and sexual transmission from a man to a woman69. Other forms of human-to-human transmission scenarios also appear to exist70. Therefore, could sustained Zika virus transmission occur without mosquitoes and should this be a concern for further spread of the epidemic? Again, let’s use an example: an infected man returns home from the Games and has sex with his partner. There are numerous reports of Zika virus infection associated with sex with a man (or woman71) returning from an endemic region7274. Therefore, in this scenario, there is immediate risk to his partner. Importantly, however, in each of these reports, Zika virus spread was limited to just those single contacts. Thus, sex and other modes of direct contact with an infectious individual is highly unlikely to lead to sustained transmission in a new population. It has also been estimated that the role of sexual transmission in Brazil is minimal compared to mosquitoes75, and without mosquitoes, transmission would dissipate. The single most compelling piece of evidence to support that Zika virus is primarily mosquito-borne is that it is only known to occur in regions with Ae. aegypti67. Therefore, Zika virus is still considered to be primarily transmitted by mosquitoes and sexual transmission (or other yet-to-be-discovered human-to-human means of transmission) will likely not expand the expected range of the Zika virus epidemic."

Honestly, I would be freaking

Honestly, I would be freaking out too (there is something inherently scary about even the potential to cause harm to a baby, versus if it is just a risk to myself, i'm like "no big deal"). I am going to test myself several times to make sure that there is NO Zika virus in my semen. So, I'd stress this importance to your doctor to get tested when you get back - unfortunately that is the only way to know. My email is linked to the article, send me a message if you have questions in the future. There may be private clinics that will offer testing.

See another post below.

See another post below. December should be okay but stick with the current CDC advisories. I have mostly agreed with them up to this point.

1) december should probably

1) december should probably be fine. Ask again in November.

2) That's tough. I travel to these places a lot for work AND my wife and I are wanting about having another baby in the next couple of years. Luckily, I can [cough cough] test myself to see if I could give Zika virus to my wife. You are right that if you did get infected, likely you wont have symptoms. Hopefully with more research we can give more specific advice as to how long to wait. 2-3 months waiting is a good idea at this time.  

don't put too much stock into

don't put too much stock into "opinion" and "peer review" in this case. We published it here instead of a big journal so that it would be open access and immediately available. This journal, F1000, only allows "Review" articles to be submitted by invitation. Instead, they told us to publish as an "opinion" as a work-around because they wanted it. Peer review for articles like these will not likely result in much change (not like they will suggest new experiments). So in my expert opinion, these are the facts. 

They are a formidable

They are a formidable opponent.

I know, isn't it great!

I know, isn't it great!

Zika virus is not likely to

Zika virus is not likely to cause severe disease in adults - but that is not the issue. LOTS of new evidence shows that Zika virus alone can cause microcephaly. Is this a new feature of the virus? Probably not. Could other factors, such as a toxin, also be involved? Yes. But there is no evidence to support pyriproxyfen is causing microcephaly, only over-speculation. 

http://www.who.int/emergencies/zika-virus/articles/rumours/en/

By "shed" I am assuming that

By "shed" I am assuming that you mean "no longer infectious". We don't really know, it can be detected in the semem for 50+ days. I'd wait 2-3 months to be safe.

Actually, most of the article

Actually, most of the article is not about the Olympics, but it may become irrelevant anyways as new info becomes available.

Not all of the data is from

Not all of the data is from Brazil and most of it comes from Universities and public health organizations. There is, however, lots of estimation going on. 

1) The epidemic is severe

1) The epidemic is severe becuase over the last couple of years, and going into the future, lots of people have/will become infected (like 1-2 million, or more). About 1% of babies born from women who get infected in their first trimester will develop a severe pathology. At any given time the risk is really low for a person to become infected. It's all about how long you are exposed to the risk. If you like in Brazil, you are exposed for a long time and will likely get infected at some point. For three weeks in the winter, probably not.

2) Entire population using measures of expected numbers of infections. So not just for the horrible outcomes.

3) More numbers of infected people at one time. No Zika virus outbreak before now included more than ~20,000-30,000 people. It's likely about 1,000,000 in the Americas. Rare events become apparent with lots of infections. Plus, retrospectively people are associating microcephaly and GBS with past outbreaks. 

I am actually trying to

I am actually trying to sequence Zika virus from the clinical cases in Florida to see if they really are locally aquired. If it is, then there could be a small outbreak (100-1000s) in Miami. The risk is very low for any one person over the span of a week. I'd go there and not be worried, but i would not send my pregenant wife.

You are correct. That is just

You are correct. That is just my general caveat about the risks of Zika infection for pregnant women because the consequences can be so severe. Sitting in your home in the US (unless you are in South Florida), you essentially have a zero risk of Zika virus infection. Go to Brazil, and it is still really low, but why risk it? 

They are removing water from

They are removing water from their blood meal so they can take in more. 

45-3 Blue
345 yards rushing

45-3 Blue

345 yards rushing

Michigan of course
 

Michigan of course

 

38-3

38-3

We are at 59% now

We are at 59% now

I'm afraid to go to bed.

I'm afraid to go to bed.

If true

If true, this will end of the most frusterating and confusing recruitments that i can recall (from a fans prespective) but with a very happy ending.

MSU vs Iowa

I think that Iowa's class should be ranked higher than MSU's.  Iowa has 4 more commits and 2 more consensus 4*'s.  I know that MSU's averages are higher and they have the advantage with better recruits in the bottom half of the class, but I'd still rather take Iowa's. 

Not that it matters, just a thought.

Our chances with top prospects, per Rivals:

Tim Sullivan article (http://michigan.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1318384):

Garnet: 50% chance of landing

Grant: 60%

Reeves: 30%

Diamond: 20%

Kozan: 18% (No. 30 offensive tackle and No. 239 prospect overall in the country by Rivals)

Madaris: 10% (No. 55 wideout in the nation)

Wildcards:

Yuri Wright and Kenneth Crawley (Tenn decommit), both tall, high ranked CBs.

Back-up option at OL:

Dan Gibbs: (2* 6-7, 332 lb OT) most likely would commit if offered, could still walk-on 

Thanks for the scouting report

Thanks for the scouting report MaizeAndBlueWahoo and sorry about the VT loss.  I was actually at that game (of course while listening to The Game on my portable radio).  On the plus side UVa won in tailgating! 

Had this UVa/UM game circled on my calendar since they announced it.  I live in DC and my girlfriend is a UVa grad.  I've been to Charlottesville  many times but this will be my first time going to a UVa basketball game.  Look for the crazy guy decked out in maize with an embarrassed girlfriend.

agreed.

I do not mind Woolfolk at safety but I hate having whoever comes in to replace him when he goes down. 

Buffalo Billiards

Though not always my favorite bar, good MI sport friendly place in DC.

There are a bunch of us here!

Where you watching the game?

Pop Evil? Really?

Of all the pump up videos you posted this one?  Sorry, not to be mean, but change it quick!

 

Patrick is the most magical,

Patrick is the most magical, beautiful man I've ever seen.  And JT is the committiest and dreadiest.. 

Also Army

Army gives me a pay check.  But I secretly cheer for Navy.

Shock the Chips

Never seen a "Dip the Chips" sign, but I've seen "Shock the Chips" written on a foam hand shaped like a shocker.

WMU, JHU, UVA

I'm a 2005 Western Michigan grad.  They had a losing season every year that I was there.  But still gotta cheer for them when they are not playing UM. 

Also a 2011 Johns Hopkins grad, though they are D3, still fun to watch.  They were 8-3 last year and 20th in the preseason poll.  Never have to worry about cheering against them versus UM.

Fiancé is a Virginia grad.  So I pretend to be a fan.

Holy Jebus do I wish this was

Holy Jebus do I wish this was real football.

Okay, now he makes a big play

Okay, now he makes a big play to prevent a TD.

T-Rich

Haven't seen much of T-Rich in this game, but when I have it’s been a big receiver catching a ball over top of him.  Wish he was a couple inches taller.  Has anyone seen any good plays by him?  Not saying he hasn't had them, just haven't seen them.  Though these events do not usually make DBs look good.

only down 8 now

21-14 southwest

EDIT: premature 21-13, missed extra point pass

Ron Thompson

A couple of big completions in a row to Ron Thompson.  He moves pretty well for a big guy with a bit of a gut.  More importantly, it looks like he has sure hands.  Really wish we had room for him as a TE, H-back, or whatever.

Southwest 21 Midwest 7 at the half

Southwest 21 Midwest 7 at the half.  Morris 10 of 17, 136 yards, 1 TD.

Morris 4 for 9

Morris is only 4 for 9 thus far, looking a bit shaky, but man does he have an arm.  I would hate to be the one to catch those passes.

Midwest down 21-0

Midwest down 21-0 with 9:22 left in the first half.  Not a good start.