Well this thread became what we all thought it would be. I have no idea if Rich deserves a fourth year. Wannstache got a fourth year and made something of it so I guess anybody can deserve a fourth year.
I believe he deserves a fourth year solely because people in the Big Ten truly fear this offense. Joe Pa actually called a FAKE FIELD GOAL instead of kicking a field goal because in theory Michigan could score two touchdowns in 3 minutes. Would you have said that about either of the offenses we've fielded the last two years?
Here is what I have noticed. Offense atrocious in Year One, Inconsistent Year Two, Impressive Year Three. By year 4 or 5 this offense will be a machine. Starting in 2008 we have purged a significant number of Carr recruits and now we are in RR recruits country. Both quarterbacks are his most of the line is his, most of the skill players are his AND they have been in the system for two years or more. These are the results. They are great results. And honestly they could be even better.
The defense is where the offense was in 2008. RRod deserves one more year. A serviceable defense means a ton. And Mike Martin won't go pro. Mostly because there is a possible lock out next year and a rookie cap. There is very little incentive to leave next year rather than the year after.
To the coaching question it comes down to Harbaugh vs. RRod. I think Jim is more likely to go pro than come to Michigan but if you want to fire RRod than Harbaugh is your next best bet. If Harbaugh doesn't come the guy I really, really like is Pat Fitzgerald. More because even though they appear outmanned and outgunned often, they always play with discipline and give themselves a chance to beat anyone.
I have to say I like where the offense could be someday. If we go to Harbaugh it becomes a different offense and team, which is great in its own way, but I will miss what this team could be. The defense is horrible no doubt, but haven't all of you been excited by this offense. I can see what this team can become and it is interesting. I'm just really disappointed that the defense couldn't become what we are accustomed too.
This was a game I really thought we could win and I'm disappointed to see that won't happen. Down 18 on the road, we have no chance. But offensively there is definitely some talent, and I believe that the next coach (which unless he goes to the pros is going to be Harbaugh) is not going to have a bare cupboard. So at least we have that going for us.
No chance that we win this game. Previous belief we would win retracted. They will run up the middle on us all night. We are in real trouble. If we don't win this game, Rich Rod is probably gone. Sad because I really like the direction the offense is headed.
What I have maintained with RR. Beilein has won at every level of competition he has played in, teaches fundamentals that are basic to winning basketball and makes a lot out of limited talent. He has a very specific type of player that can be effective in his system and much like the football team from last year, our basketball team this year will have more games where they get only one part of the game right (offense or defense) rather than a complete game. People keep stating size is the issue, but really it's just experience. They aren't an upperclassmen dominated team.
Will they win a championship...possibly. I certainly expect them to be competitive in the very near future. That is the only reassurance I can provide...
What happened at Texas Tech I can't speculate on. It seems like he has always been a coaching outsider. But if you ever see his schemes - he is the passing equivalent of RR. He gets people one on one in space, and dares your secondary to cover his fast small guys and keep up the pace. People may have forgotten, but Randy Walker did the same thing at Northwestern and was very successful.
Unlike others, the Big Ten being the Big Two and everyone else was actually not good for the league. The fact that other teams have developed and become real teams in their own right is important and makes overall competition better. It is what is forcing Michigan to be better. I would love to see Minnesota be something other than an automatic win. I would love Minnesota to GO FOR 2 on wisconsin up by 28 points and have Leach say something like, "Card? What Card? I just hate that assface and wanted to punk him. I don't see a single thing wrong with that". It's what Minnesota as a team needs.
Having said all that, my guess is Gary Patterson is a better candidate and possibly better coach for the job. He has experience building a balanced team in an area where recruiting from Texas run off is your only chance to field competition. He would be a great hire for them. Not sure if they can get him though....
Minnesota was successful under Glen Mason because he had a scheme that took advantage of lesser talent. Some colleges are like small market teams in baseball. They have to maximize the talent they can get and develop a scheme that covers up deficits. Glen was doing a great job of that. I am unsure what Brewster was trying to do exactly.
Though I have to say, if Iowa and Wisconsin can field killer pro style teams, why can't Minnesota. What advantage to those two schools have that Minnesota can't replicate? This is a team that should be far better than this.
On a side note, if his Twitter messages are any indication of Brewster's inability to have an inner voice, how epic are those tweets going to be today. "KILL....RAGE....EARLY TERMINATION...CONTRACT....HATE BIELMA....BURN HIS HOUSE DOWN....LIFE HATES ME....ARGGGHHH"
We should lose to Iowa and we did. This was not a game we should have won by every metric out there.
Having said that - we were close in a game we shouldn't have been when our turnover margin was that abhorred. We were close in a game where Mike Martin essentially didn't play. Imagine how good Kenny Demens would have looked if Mike Martin was in the game.
I actually feel very good about this team going forward. The games with Wisky and OSU are going to be closer than people believe.
Is the best team in the Big Ten. Michigan State will not beat Iowa. That is an extremely good team Ferentz has put together. Shame they had that horrible game against Iowa.
MSU can definitely be a one loss team. They don't play anyone else that matters or is remotely threatening.
7-5, and I would be even more ecstatic with 8-4. The teams that beat us in the BIg Ten should but I feel that if we play a perfect game we maybe able to beat one of them.
People are going to be despondent because we are built on pattern recognition. And combine that with homerism, you have a very dangerous mix for spontaneous combustion I don't think this requires a lot of introspection. Iowa is an older, more balanced and more experienced team. Those teams will beat us. I believe we will get to seven wins for sure and possibly eight wins. This is not the same team from last year. If people can't see that then I don't know what else any of us can say.
Is going to be an animal. I remember being upset at the personal foul that derailed one drive before it could start and then the false start that was the killer on the attempted field goal. But during my duress I noticed that I hadn't heard the name Adrian Clayborn. He effectively shut him out.
The future on offense is amazingly bright. I am so excited to see this offense next year and a competent defense will make this team very tough to handle. I believe the official revenge tour starts next year and it will be a blast to be on this board then. For now, we have to deal with the manic depression that is the Michigan fan base.
He filled gaps, read plays and did an excellent job at this strength which was the run. If Mike Martin was out there for the whole game he would have looked even better. He is not Ray Lewis, so he will not be taking deep zones or covering seam routes. But neither was Obi, so frankly this is a massive upgrade.
I think the coaching staff gave Obi the opportunity to get it. He is a senior, he deserved it and we hadn't lost games. The bloom will eventually come off the rose.
I would be shocked if they don't. They will do maddening young team things like jacking up threes too quickly or not rotating on pick and rolls, getting out on shooters, etc. But what I like about this team is there are no expectations and there are a few players that are true leaders and who understand the system implicitly. Those two things in a Beilein system is critical. They aren't NCAA yet, but they are NIT. They maybe NCAA in a year or two.
He is getting his type of players, and as I have stated with Rich Rod repeatedly, people don't just go to a new conference and forget how to coach. That doesn't happen. I guarantee we will get equilibrium with MSU again and I suspect Coach B will do well in the Big Ten eventually because frankly he won in a much tougher conference. History indicates he should be successful.
If we lose to Iowa. This devastating event was predicted by the Mayans and is foretold as a precursor to the apocalypse. Or....
This is another game like every other game our team and our coach wants to win. I recognize for college football fans there are rivalry games, grudge matches, and etc. But frankly I am as emotionally crushed losing to MSU as I would be to Iowa or Indiana or Illinois. This team is improving and becoming noticeably better. I predict the defense will stabilize and the offense will continue to expand its potential. When a few things go wrong everything goes wrong. Timing is off, people forget their assignments, and wheels come off. This happens with young teams. They aren't a veteran enough offense to stabilize themselves. But on offense this team has leaders and they will right the ship if not improve even more. The defense maybe too personnel challenged to become anything beyond serviceable, but if we can get to serviceable by the end of the year, I would be ecstatic. I can't quote the evidence but the WVU defenses were not Top Ten that I remember in any year that Rich was there. They were however competent and serviceable. If we can get to that we will win a lot of games.
Having said all that, if you are placing your hopes on the Rich Rod tenure on this game with Iowa, then you will be disappointed. Iowa lost one game this year, where multiple freakish events occurred to even have this happen. If we beat this team straight up, then Michigan will win EVERY remaining game. But Iowa is too experienced, too talented and too tough on both sides of the line for our team.
After we lost to MSU, I felt that the Penn State game is the most important game for Rich Rod. I maintain it still is. That is a team we should beat. If we don't beat them, then his coaching career at Michigan is at risk almost certainly. But putting that pressure on Iowa is not logical. If you lose to a better team that is not an indictment of your coaching ability.
1) This quote tells me he hates losing period. I've always maintained that Rodriguez doesn't care which game it is. I don't believe he views MSU as any different than any other game. I don't believe he views OSU as different than any other game. He views every game as a game he wants to desperately win. That is neither good or bad to me. I hate the Spartans but that doesn't mean he has to. Of course that doesn't absolve the team or him from losing. I want him to beat everybody. I just want him to beat OSU, MSU and Notre Dame to the point of necessitating a restraining order.
2) The people who don't believe that spread teams can't win in the Big Ten all I can say is please revisit history. The old school Lloyd Carr Michigan teams got shredded by spread teams. The read option spread can work in the Big Ten but like any offense, defense or special teams strategy you have to have the talent, and it has to execute. I am pretty sure when Oklahoma got run out off the field by WVU, there weren't that many people complaining about how effectively the read option could work against a big bad Big 12 team. Northwestern under Randy Walker was very competitive running the spread. Troy Smith and the Buckeyes ran the spread.
I am looking forward to the day that the whole "Big Ten have big men who pound big rocks and play man sport and read option no work because everyone too small" meme ends. It requires the right talent, and maturity to execute fully. The 3-3-5 falls under the same category. Rich hasn't lied about our lack of talent on the defensive side and it is evident on the field. It will get better if Rich stays at Michigan. His historical record shows that to be true.
It will be two losses in a row but then we will beat Penn State and hopefully all of this will calm down some. I love all of my fellow Michigan fans but just as we were overconfident after 5 wins, we cannot be unrealistically despondent with one loss.
Good post - I think sky is falling is a little early for all of us (I think pattern recognition and the fiasco of last year is freaking us out but it shouldn't).
One: Michigan State brought a lot of bodies to the line to stop Denard and went press coverage on our receivers. Denard was not able to make the throws to beat the coverage. He will be able to do that someday. Today was not that day. I wish therefore we had just run more and really softened them up. It appeared to me MSU was REALLY keying in on DR. Hopkins and Shaw should have gotten the ball a lot more often. Rodriguez obviously saw that they were playing man on our receivers and started licking his chops but we should have just kept running the ball till they could effectively stop us. In this case it meant handing off to the running backs more often out of the spread than we did especially on the first drive where I thought we would just keep running until they could stop us. When the game became two scores, we just went five wide to get back in it. By then, reestablishing the run is a lost cause.
Two: I think that Michigan State is a very good team and they are better than us this year. Their defense is better than ours, their offense is comparable if you balance out all factors and their special teams are better. They are not three scores better, but they are better. I don't think we should take anything away from that team. Homerism aside, they will be one of the best teams we face this year. They have a confluence of talent, confidence and extenuating circumstances (Dantonio's health) that is going to make them very tough to beat.
I concur with Jamiemac on the strength of the spartans currently. They are a good, hard nosed, veteran team with a very solid coaching staff. This isn't to detract from our kids or program. It is more of an assertion that MSU has solid depth across the board and program stability. We should hate the fact that we lost to any team, but I believe losing to MSU stings more because of the perception that it places on our program. We have owned MSU for some time so to have the tables turned of late (and being informed of this fact by every spartan we know) is off putting to say the least. This was a game that isn't as much of thorough domination as people are stating it to be, but it feels as such because MSU just dictated play so much that perceptively it feels that way. This was a very strong, powerful MSU team and it is no surprise that we had a tough time with them.
In terms of what will happen for this team in the future. If anyone asked me prior to Big Ten play who we would lose to my list would have probably been MSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. The reasons are simply that each of these teams had veteran quarterbacks, run a significant amount of misdirection (counter plays and play action) which a young, inexperienced defense will get gouged by, and had strong defensive lines with solid linebacker play which is usually the best way to control a spread option run attack. You stone the offensive line and everyone plays their gaps. I think this prediction will still hold to be true. Michigan's defense can do a decent job on teams that can't throw seam routes or deep outs which expose zones. This allows them to control the game with their defensive line and makes passes somewhat harder. This is why the game with Indiana was so close. Indiana can hit those passes very effectively and they did. Iowa will hit those passes, so will Wisconsin. Those are guarantees. They will also try to limit lanes significantly for us to run and play man coverage forcing Denard to be a much more accurate passer. Ohio State is the wild card here as I believe if we Terrell Pryor is still a hampered runner at the end of the year we may have a chance.
Overall I think we will lose to Iowa this week. They are too strong on their defensive line and frankly Stansi is too experienced a quarterback to not dissect our defense and figure out our weaknesses. You don't have to have Edwin Baker at running back to beat our defense. If Darius Willis can get yards, Adam Robinson can get yards. And I hate to say it, Iowa has a defense that is light years ahead of MSU. This will be a hard game to win.
I am however confident about Purdue, Penn State and Illinois. All have young quarterbacks, debatable defenses, manageable offenses. Could one of those teams surprise us, of course. But we are just as likely to pull a surprise on one of the three remaining teams I've listed as a loss. So 8-4, a bowl game and hopefully an even brighter future.
I will also say I believe this defense will get better next year. If we had even a SERVICEABLE middle linebacker we would be light years ahead of where we are. People blame the secondary but they are predominantly freshman and former wide receivers. Their play is not horribly surprising. Our safety's being slow is also well know but the schemes cover up for that to some degree. However our safeties being slow AND having a middle linebacker who cannot recognize gap responsibility is killing us. It is also the reason we will lose to the teams stated above. They have the personnel and the experience to take advantage of it.
Comments regarding Notre Dame and the statement that it is not a premier coaching job are ridiculous. Notre Dame has national exposure, a rabid fan base, every Catholic kid in the country wants to go to Jesus U which is a distinct recruiting advantage and a rich tradition of assistant coaches who have gone on to success at other programs. We should be duly concerned that the Irish have real talent from a variety of great recruiting classes and can attract a top flight coach.
I can't imagine it can be Stoops, Meyer or Saban - mostly because those programs will match any dollar figure. These are big donor schools and they are hard to outbid (especially considering the amount of money they have to pay Weis just to fire him). Notre Dame should focus on getting a coach who has proven himself in either a middle tier team or in a mid major conference. Those teams would have a difficult time matching the prestige of Notre Dame or the price that Notre Dame could pay for a coach.
Which brings us to the candidate that would be ideal for the job - Jim Harbaugh. He runs a pro style system which is most adaptable to Notre Dame's current personnel, which would mean little attrition and more importantly very little pain in transfer. He is pending a contract extension that he has not signed. He is not only Catholic - HE IS DEVOUTLY CATHOLIC (http://www.catholicreview.org/subpages/selectedstory.aspx?action=5024). He comes from a mid tier school in a power conference (just like every successful notre dame coach - Parsegian was Northwestern, Devine was at Missouri and Holtz was at Minnesota).
Could it be Chris Petersen, Gary Patterson or Brian Kelly? Absolutely it could be. They all have positives. However, I don't think Notre Dame is at the point of "SHAKE THIS THING UP" like Michigan was - that Appalachian State loss affected our program deeper than people even realize. Notre Dame is still a very conservative school in approach and style. These do not strike me as conservative coaches. This is a conservative AD also so I can't believe he won't want a hard nosed, good Catholic with a successful track record to guide this team. I don't know - sounds like Jim Harbaugh to me.
Though Harbaugh was definitely cursing like a Michigan man during the Notre Dame game.
Four things:
1) They can't stop dribble penetration (which indirectly is causing easy baskets underneath)
2) They are not rotating on shooters (even in a zone you have to rotate on shooters)
3) They are shooting poorly from three themselves (not poor shot selection - it just isn't going in)
4) Their free throw percentage is atrocious (or not up to their usual standards)
The thing I find interesting is all the hype on this team early this year. If this team doesn't execute perfectly they can lose to anyone. They don't have the raw talent to beat any team out there even on off nights. The only way they were going to be better than last year is if Manny improved his midrange game, Peedi posted up consistently, and the team collectively shot the three and rebounded better. The only way they could be worse is if they can't match up with the opposing guards to prevent dribble penetration.
All the other problems existed from last year so should not be anything new - mostly lack of size and intermittent defensive effort. We will miss Merritt and Lee - not for leadership but for on the ball defense.
I was disappointed by Illinois - a team playing very poorly with a horrible defense and a quarterback who was having a horrible year. The same game plan from OSU would have won us the game. And it has been a long time since a Michigan team couldn't punch it in from the one yard line.
I expected Purdue to beat us mostly because they were a pass oriented team which we have just not been able to stop all year. I was surprised we had a chance to win that game or that we were ahead in the beginning. But we played like a young team all year - giving up leads, making mistakes, a ton of turnovers. It will get better - I am sure of it.
I was disappointed at how fractured our fan base became. You know people say a lot of things about R Rod, but what I find fascinating about him is that his assessment of the team is extremely accurate. He actually never sugar coats anything. He stated the offense would be better. Check. He said that the problem with freshman quarterbacks is they play like freshman. Check. He stated immediately, that David Molk was BY FAR, the most important player on the TEAM. Yeah, check. And he also stated that the defensive depth would be a problem. Check and check.
Wins and losses happen, we had more than last year when we had better defensive personnel. We go LMFAO at pounding MAC teams this year - last year we couldn't beat Toledo. Objectively the team is improving, and R Rod has said as much (as in I see the light at the end of the tunnel). I believe him, because honestly he hasn't really lied about anything - including self assessment (I'm sure the bitter board members will point some out but I find them mostly as aggrandizements).
Why the negative fan base is coming out and unloading right now is beyond me. Michigan had been in decline since it's zenith in 2006 and we were toxic to begin with - what with the losing to App State and all. If you are going to a whole sale change and you have maybe 8 contributors total in your junior and senior class then maybe depth and capacity is a problem. I wish the fan base would criticize his coaching when we had ACTUAL TALENT. That has been the disappointment of this year. 5-7 was very realistic for this program when we started the year. Calling for his head after YEARS of mediocrity that he has to single handedly change is ludicrous honestly. I have no idea how much time is enough time, but whatever we have given I can tell you is not enough.
More OSU than Michigan fans at the big house - if that isn't generated by the fracture I don't know what is - and the worst is there is no scarlet letter we can put on these people to say, "hey you're the jerk who had zero patience with a young team - learning new systems, trying to get better. We will throw things at you now that we are good". People can hurt these kids, sell their tickets, not support them at games and when the team becomes exceptional (and it will) they will be right back when the team starts winning again.
And they will win again - because R Rod has not consistently lost anywhere. So that won't happen here either. I just hope he gets enough time to do it.
In the sense that you actually had enough time to call running plays if you desired. And Gerhardt is his best player - he should have the ball or be a threat to get the ball at all times. Do I think that R Rod should have called a run on second down rather than a pass after we were having success running the ball prior to the end zone interception? Probably but he put the ball in the hands of the best offensive player we have, which sadly is our freshman quarterback (by the way - shouldn't that say it all about this years team?). If you have Brandon Minor however, you truck that three times and get it in the end zone.
Exhausted or not, you put it in Gerhardt's hands and you get your touchdown. You at least try play action to open up the middle of the field. Not doing that doesn't make Harbaugh a bad coach. His body of work has determined he is not. But it was almost certainly a bad play call, mostly because you didn't let the guy who gets you there take you home. You think if Brandon Minor had trucked dudes for fifty yards, he wouldn't be getting the rock to take it to the house?
With the talent they already have if they choose a Brian Kelly for example, someone who is completely focused on the vertical game, the transition may not be so rough. Should they choose an Urban Meyer - the transition may be a little tougher just based on system and existing skill set. That has to be factored in I think.
They could definitely have an exodus however of talented players who decide no Charlie, no reason to live. Despite having more food in the spring ball buffet line. Such as the emu....
As to why the fan base wants such instant gratification? I recognize it has been a trying two years, specifically after watching michigan football for so long, but we all lived through basketball purgatory and we made it out. We will make it out of football purgatory.
We couldn't even beat MAC teams last year. Say what you want, but this year we beat a completely healthy Notre Dame squad. A healthy David Molk and we make a bowl for sure. I frankly am happy to give him the full five years. The biggest reason being - Michigan is still Michigan. If Rich Rod doesn't work out, we'll just get another hot rising star. More than likely from the Bo tree. Either way, it isn't the end of the world. We currently have a coach that is trying to get his team to the next level. He has been successful consistently at every level. Let's just see what he can do. IF THE IDIOTS AT NOTRE DAME CAN GIVE CHARLIE WEIS FIVE YEARS WHY CAN'T WE HAVE R ROD THREE?
Uhh yeah - nope, that post still sucks. Absolute value or not.
Seriously for all of the doom and gloom pessimists, can you post contact info so we can just rail against you next year with horrific vitreol because of your completely narrow minded view of the team? Do all of you go to cancer sites and go, "UGGH, CHEMO DOESN'T WORK, FIRE THE DRUGS, TIME FOR HOLISTIC MEDICINE, I HATE YOU SCIENCE".
I concur that constructive criticism is valuable. But this is arguably a team with just horrible depth. And we don't play I-AA; coaches in the Big Ten recognize the weaknesses of this team. This is a team devoid in depth and age. Our best players were all seniors, so direct correlation noted. Imagine the coaches who literally have to pray that no one throws the ball deep on JT Floyd, or look at the film and say, "Maybe Mike Williams won't be horrible". This isn't Charlie Weis who has all the talent in the world on offense and defense with five years to get his system in place. This is year 2 of I suspect a full five year building project. I firmly believe we will be rewarded.
Again - this is a coach WHO HAS WON AT EVERY LEVEL. What makes you think he has all of a sudden forgotten how to coach? I would call for firing if he had even a modicum of a mediocre record. But seriously the guy won at West Virgina - where Don Nehlen was happy to be north of .500. If he tells me we are making progress, then I believe we are making progress. R Rod said we would suck last year - we did. He said we would be better but that depth was still a problem, he was right. What has he said or done that has made people believe this outcome is a surprise?
For those people who are really fans, I am excited for our collective feature. For those who aren't, I just feel sorry for you. Subsisting on torturing yourself about a team you clearly only love when it wins seems like a futile life pursuit.
I am curious if Brian or anyone else will look at this but we had a great game plan that was built on the realization that Tyrelle Pryor is horribly inaccurate. We were able to go back to the defensive game plan that has been the least damaging which is Woolfolk at safety and Floyd at corner. All Leach had to do (which apparently Ezeh can't do) is fill gaps.
I wonder what our numbers look like with Woolfolk at safety. I also wonder how much of a difference JT Turner at the other corner spot with Leach in the middle would have been.
For all those who think R Rod should get fired, I think this game shows that with even a modicum of depth, this becomes a very good team.
Recent Comments
Well this thread became what we all thought it would be. I have no idea if Rich deserves a fourth year. Wannstache got a fourth year and made something of it so I guess anybody can deserve a fourth year.
I believe he deserves a fourth year solely because people in the Big Ten truly fear this offense. Joe Pa actually called a FAKE FIELD GOAL instead of kicking a field goal because in theory Michigan could score two touchdowns in 3 minutes. Would you have said that about either of the offenses we've fielded the last two years?
Here is what I have noticed. Offense atrocious in Year One, Inconsistent Year Two, Impressive Year Three. By year 4 or 5 this offense will be a machine. Starting in 2008 we have purged a significant number of Carr recruits and now we are in RR recruits country. Both quarterbacks are his most of the line is his, most of the skill players are his AND they have been in the system for two years or more. These are the results. They are great results. And honestly they could be even better.
The defense is where the offense was in 2008. RRod deserves one more year. A serviceable defense means a ton. And Mike Martin won't go pro. Mostly because there is a possible lock out next year and a rookie cap. There is very little incentive to leave next year rather than the year after.
To the coaching question it comes down to Harbaugh vs. RRod. I think Jim is more likely to go pro than come to Michigan but if you want to fire RRod than Harbaugh is your next best bet. If Harbaugh doesn't come the guy I really, really like is Pat Fitzgerald. More because even though they appear outmanned and outgunned often, they always play with discipline and give themselves a chance to beat anyone.
I have to say I like where the offense could be someday. If we go to Harbaugh it becomes a different offense and team, which is great in its own way, but I will miss what this team could be. The defense is horrible no doubt, but haven't all of you been excited by this offense. I can see what this team can become and it is interesting. I'm just really disappointed that the defense couldn't become what we are accustomed too.
This was a game I really thought we could win and I'm disappointed to see that won't happen. Down 18 on the road, we have no chance. But offensively there is definitely some talent, and I believe that the next coach (which unless he goes to the pros is going to be Harbaugh) is not going to have a bare cupboard. So at least we have that going for us.
No chance that we win this game. Previous belief we would win retracted. They will run up the middle on us all night. We are in real trouble. If we don't win this game, Rich Rod is probably gone. Sad because I really like the direction the offense is headed.
What I have maintained with RR. Beilein has won at every level of competition he has played in, teaches fundamentals that are basic to winning basketball and makes a lot out of limited talent. He has a very specific type of player that can be effective in his system and much like the football team from last year, our basketball team this year will have more games where they get only one part of the game right (offense or defense) rather than a complete game. People keep stating size is the issue, but really it's just experience. They aren't an upperclassmen dominated team.
Will they win a championship...possibly. I certainly expect them to be competitive in the very near future. That is the only reassurance I can provide...
What happened at Texas Tech I can't speculate on. It seems like he has always been a coaching outsider. But if you ever see his schemes - he is the passing equivalent of RR. He gets people one on one in space, and dares your secondary to cover his fast small guys and keep up the pace. People may have forgotten, but Randy Walker did the same thing at Northwestern and was very successful.
Unlike others, the Big Ten being the Big Two and everyone else was actually not good for the league. The fact that other teams have developed and become real teams in their own right is important and makes overall competition better. It is what is forcing Michigan to be better. I would love to see Minnesota be something other than an automatic win. I would love Minnesota to GO FOR 2 on wisconsin up by 28 points and have Leach say something like, "Card? What Card? I just hate that assface and wanted to punk him. I don't see a single thing wrong with that". It's what Minnesota as a team needs.
Having said all that, my guess is Gary Patterson is a better candidate and possibly better coach for the job. He has experience building a balanced team in an area where recruiting from Texas run off is your only chance to field competition. He would be a great hire for them. Not sure if they can get him though....
Minnesota was successful under Glen Mason because he had a scheme that took advantage of lesser talent. Some colleges are like small market teams in baseball. They have to maximize the talent they can get and develop a scheme that covers up deficits. Glen was doing a great job of that. I am unsure what Brewster was trying to do exactly.
Though I have to say, if Iowa and Wisconsin can field killer pro style teams, why can't Minnesota. What advantage to those two schools have that Minnesota can't replicate? This is a team that should be far better than this.
On a side note, if his Twitter messages are any indication of Brewster's inability to have an inner voice, how epic are those tweets going to be today. "KILL....RAGE....EARLY TERMINATION...CONTRACT....HATE BIELMA....BURN HIS HOUSE DOWN....LIFE HATES ME....ARGGGHHH"
We should lose to Iowa and we did. This was not a game we should have won by every metric out there.
Having said that - we were close in a game we shouldn't have been when our turnover margin was that abhorred. We were close in a game where Mike Martin essentially didn't play. Imagine how good Kenny Demens would have looked if Mike Martin was in the game.
I actually feel very good about this team going forward. The games with Wisky and OSU are going to be closer than people believe.
Is the best team in the Big Ten. Michigan State will not beat Iowa. That is an extremely good team Ferentz has put together. Shame they had that horrible game against Iowa.
MSU can definitely be a one loss team. They don't play anyone else that matters or is remotely threatening.
7-5, and I would be even more ecstatic with 8-4. The teams that beat us in the BIg Ten should but I feel that if we play a perfect game we maybe able to beat one of them.
People are going to be despondent because we are built on pattern recognition. And combine that with homerism, you have a very dangerous mix for spontaneous combustion I don't think this requires a lot of introspection. Iowa is an older, more balanced and more experienced team. Those teams will beat us. I believe we will get to seven wins for sure and possibly eight wins. This is not the same team from last year. If people can't see that then I don't know what else any of us can say.
Is going to be an animal. I remember being upset at the personal foul that derailed one drive before it could start and then the false start that was the killer on the attempted field goal. But during my duress I noticed that I hadn't heard the name Adrian Clayborn. He effectively shut him out.
The future on offense is amazingly bright. I am so excited to see this offense next year and a competent defense will make this team very tough to handle. I believe the official revenge tour starts next year and it will be a blast to be on this board then. For now, we have to deal with the manic depression that is the Michigan fan base.
He filled gaps, read plays and did an excellent job at this strength which was the run. If Mike Martin was out there for the whole game he would have looked even better. He is not Ray Lewis, so he will not be taking deep zones or covering seam routes. But neither was Obi, so frankly this is a massive upgrade.
I think the coaching staff gave Obi the opportunity to get it. He is a senior, he deserved it and we hadn't lost games. The bloom will eventually come off the rose.
I would be shocked if they don't. They will do maddening young team things like jacking up threes too quickly or not rotating on pick and rolls, getting out on shooters, etc. But what I like about this team is there are no expectations and there are a few players that are true leaders and who understand the system implicitly. Those two things in a Beilein system is critical. They aren't NCAA yet, but they are NIT. They maybe NCAA in a year or two.
He is getting his type of players, and as I have stated with Rich Rod repeatedly, people don't just go to a new conference and forget how to coach. That doesn't happen. I guarantee we will get equilibrium with MSU again and I suspect Coach B will do well in the Big Ten eventually because frankly he won in a much tougher conference. History indicates he should be successful.
If we lose to Iowa. This devastating event was predicted by the Mayans and is foretold as a precursor to the apocalypse. Or....
This is another game like every other game our team and our coach wants to win. I recognize for college football fans there are rivalry games, grudge matches, and etc. But frankly I am as emotionally crushed losing to MSU as I would be to Iowa or Indiana or Illinois. This team is improving and becoming noticeably better. I predict the defense will stabilize and the offense will continue to expand its potential. When a few things go wrong everything goes wrong. Timing is off, people forget their assignments, and wheels come off. This happens with young teams. They aren't a veteran enough offense to stabilize themselves. But on offense this team has leaders and they will right the ship if not improve even more. The defense maybe too personnel challenged to become anything beyond serviceable, but if we can get to serviceable by the end of the year, I would be ecstatic. I can't quote the evidence but the WVU defenses were not Top Ten that I remember in any year that Rich was there. They were however competent and serviceable. If we can get to that we will win a lot of games.
Having said all that, if you are placing your hopes on the Rich Rod tenure on this game with Iowa, then you will be disappointed. Iowa lost one game this year, where multiple freakish events occurred to even have this happen. If we beat this team straight up, then Michigan will win EVERY remaining game. But Iowa is too experienced, too talented and too tough on both sides of the line for our team.
After we lost to MSU, I felt that the Penn State game is the most important game for Rich Rod. I maintain it still is. That is a team we should beat. If we don't beat them, then his coaching career at Michigan is at risk almost certainly. But putting that pressure on Iowa is not logical. If you lose to a better team that is not an indictment of your coaching ability.
1) This quote tells me he hates losing period. I've always maintained that Rodriguez doesn't care which game it is. I don't believe he views MSU as any different than any other game. I don't believe he views OSU as different than any other game. He views every game as a game he wants to desperately win. That is neither good or bad to me. I hate the Spartans but that doesn't mean he has to. Of course that doesn't absolve the team or him from losing. I want him to beat everybody. I just want him to beat OSU, MSU and Notre Dame to the point of necessitating a restraining order.
2) The people who don't believe that spread teams can't win in the Big Ten all I can say is please revisit history. The old school Lloyd Carr Michigan teams got shredded by spread teams. The read option spread can work in the Big Ten but like any offense, defense or special teams strategy you have to have the talent, and it has to execute. I am pretty sure when Oklahoma got run out off the field by WVU, there weren't that many people complaining about how effectively the read option could work against a big bad Big 12 team. Northwestern under Randy Walker was very competitive running the spread. Troy Smith and the Buckeyes ran the spread.
I am looking forward to the day that the whole "Big Ten have big men who pound big rocks and play man sport and read option no work because everyone too small" meme ends. It requires the right talent, and maturity to execute fully. The 3-3-5 falls under the same category. Rich hasn't lied about our lack of talent on the defensive side and it is evident on the field. It will get better if Rich stays at Michigan. His historical record shows that to be true.
It will be two losses in a row but then we will beat Penn State and hopefully all of this will calm down some. I love all of my fellow Michigan fans but just as we were overconfident after 5 wins, we cannot be unrealistically despondent with one loss.
Good post - I think sky is falling is a little early for all of us (I think pattern recognition and the fiasco of last year is freaking us out but it shouldn't).
One: Michigan State brought a lot of bodies to the line to stop Denard and went press coverage on our receivers. Denard was not able to make the throws to beat the coverage. He will be able to do that someday. Today was not that day. I wish therefore we had just run more and really softened them up. It appeared to me MSU was REALLY keying in on DR. Hopkins and Shaw should have gotten the ball a lot more often. Rodriguez obviously saw that they were playing man on our receivers and started licking his chops but we should have just kept running the ball till they could effectively stop us. In this case it meant handing off to the running backs more often out of the spread than we did especially on the first drive where I thought we would just keep running until they could stop us. When the game became two scores, we just went five wide to get back in it. By then, reestablishing the run is a lost cause.
Two: I think that Michigan State is a very good team and they are better than us this year. Their defense is better than ours, their offense is comparable if you balance out all factors and their special teams are better. They are not three scores better, but they are better. I don't think we should take anything away from that team. Homerism aside, they will be one of the best teams we face this year. They have a confluence of talent, confidence and extenuating circumstances (Dantonio's health) that is going to make them very tough to beat.
I concur with Jamiemac on the strength of the spartans currently. They are a good, hard nosed, veteran team with a very solid coaching staff. This isn't to detract from our kids or program. It is more of an assertion that MSU has solid depth across the board and program stability. We should hate the fact that we lost to any team, but I believe losing to MSU stings more because of the perception that it places on our program. We have owned MSU for some time so to have the tables turned of late (and being informed of this fact by every spartan we know) is off putting to say the least. This was a game that isn't as much of thorough domination as people are stating it to be, but it feels as such because MSU just dictated play so much that perceptively it feels that way. This was a very strong, powerful MSU team and it is no surprise that we had a tough time with them.
In terms of what will happen for this team in the future. If anyone asked me prior to Big Ten play who we would lose to my list would have probably been MSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. The reasons are simply that each of these teams had veteran quarterbacks, run a significant amount of misdirection (counter plays and play action) which a young, inexperienced defense will get gouged by, and had strong defensive lines with solid linebacker play which is usually the best way to control a spread option run attack. You stone the offensive line and everyone plays their gaps. I think this prediction will still hold to be true. Michigan's defense can do a decent job on teams that can't throw seam routes or deep outs which expose zones. This allows them to control the game with their defensive line and makes passes somewhat harder. This is why the game with Indiana was so close. Indiana can hit those passes very effectively and they did. Iowa will hit those passes, so will Wisconsin. Those are guarantees. They will also try to limit lanes significantly for us to run and play man coverage forcing Denard to be a much more accurate passer. Ohio State is the wild card here as I believe if we Terrell Pryor is still a hampered runner at the end of the year we may have a chance.
Overall I think we will lose to Iowa this week. They are too strong on their defensive line and frankly Stansi is too experienced a quarterback to not dissect our defense and figure out our weaknesses. You don't have to have Edwin Baker at running back to beat our defense. If Darius Willis can get yards, Adam Robinson can get yards. And I hate to say it, Iowa has a defense that is light years ahead of MSU. This will be a hard game to win.
I am however confident about Purdue, Penn State and Illinois. All have young quarterbacks, debatable defenses, manageable offenses. Could one of those teams surprise us, of course. But we are just as likely to pull a surprise on one of the three remaining teams I've listed as a loss. So 8-4, a bowl game and hopefully an even brighter future.
I will also say I believe this defense will get better next year. If we had even a SERVICEABLE middle linebacker we would be light years ahead of where we are. People blame the secondary but they are predominantly freshman and former wide receivers. Their play is not horribly surprising. Our safety's being slow is also well know but the schemes cover up for that to some degree. However our safeties being slow AND having a middle linebacker who cannot recognize gap responsibility is killing us. It is also the reason we will lose to the teams stated above. They have the personnel and the experience to take advantage of it.