Observations from a review of Michigan-Purdue game film- John O'Korn Edition
As always, I proceeded to watch a replay of the Michigan game, with a certain intention in mind. For this week's Purdue-Michigan game, the target was obvious: the QB play. Let me preface this by giving you a hot take: I'm not sure if Michigan wins this game if Wilton Speight doesn't get injured. Seriously.
During the course of this season, I have been one of Speight's biggest defenders. Re-read my diary from last week and you'll see for yourself. However, watching those first three series, I've given up on Speight. On the 10 plays he ran in the game, Michigan gained just 12 yards. Running lanes were rarely opening, mostly because he is not a threat to move the ball through the air. As for when he dropped back, it was an erosion of the very thing that Speight has always had going for him: pocket presence. The first time Purdue sacked him, Speight had a wide open receiver and completely misread him and took the sack instead. His vision was bad, his pocket presence was bad, and his only throw down the field wasn't close to his receiver and was nearly picked off. There's no other way to say it: Speight was an absolute dumpster fire. A clear regression against the worst defenses all year meant he deserved to be benched anyway.
So after the injury, how did O'Korn do? Pretty darn fantastic. He went 18/26 for 270 yards, a TD, and a pick. Of the 8 incompletions, I counted 1 throwaway, 1 drop, 3 misses, and 3 strong PBU's. The interception was an accurate throw where a good PBU by the CB tipped it up. Not much he could do about that. Of the 3 misses, two were by a hair, and only one was blatant. Compared to the showing Speight has put up, it was heavenly. But about the 18 throws he made, almost all were pin-point accurate and on the day if we total it all up, 24 of 27 O'Korn throws gave his guy a chance, with the 1 throwaway. Speight couldn't dream of doing that. But most impressively, O'Korn's pocket presence was phenomenal, basically what Speight used to be. The evasion of the sack before stepping up to find Perry and the deep pass to Gentry while being targeted were two elite plays. His scrambling ability gives Michigan a dimension that Speight couldn't.
Then there's the basic fact the first five drives of the second half (punt after decent gain, Higdon fumble, TD, TD, TD) was the best 25 minute stretch of football has played all year. The defense held Purdue to 9 yards on 5 combined drives, while the offense gained 279 yards on 33 plays for 21 points, which is 8.46 yards per play. I ommitted the final four drives (two for each team) of the second half because offensively, Michigan was simply running out the clock. For the first time all year, Michigan's offense clicked. Offensive line is still a work in progress, but big running lanes finally opened because Purdue feared the QB's ability to throw it down the field, a first this season.
While Speight has completely lacked confidence, O'Korn played like a man on a mission, playing with total confidence, not fearing the pass rush, and making plays. I don't know how long Speight is going to be out, but I know one thing: unless John O'Korn self destructs, Wilton Speight should not play another meaningful snap this season. Yes, that's a hot take, but I'm just giving you the facts. Speight was given over three games to get things going and it never happened. He goes down and within a couple drives, the backup has things roaring. O'Korn has earned his opportunity to lead this team and Michigan can't mess around with a QB controversy. We have a bye week and then two games against lesser opponents to get the offense tuned up before Penn St.. There's no time to flip flop. Whoever the QB is needs to play the next two games and use first team reps during the bye to start to click. And who that guy should be is blatantly obvious.
September 24th, 2017 at 6:17 PM ^
Seem to be that people think JO'K is going to be more aggressive and take more risks than Speight. And that's probably true. But I'm totally fine with that. Speight's "nonagreesiveness" is basically just short for "inability to move the football". JO'K is our only hope and I'm pretty optimistic. He needs to continue to improve, but with this defense, we don't need THAT much out of the offense.
September 24th, 2017 at 6:54 PM ^
Speight drops back cocks his arm to throw, HAS FOUR GUYS OPEN and he pump fakes and takes a sack. I don't care how JO'K plays, I can't take anymore of this. If this isn't a broken QB, what is? Speight's one signature trait was his ability to feel the pocket, stand in there and make throws. If that's gone... what's left?
September 24th, 2017 at 7:00 PM ^
Speight HAS TWO GUYS OPEN ON THIRD DOWN and instead he scrambles and runs out of bounds for a loss. Even worse, is that the pocket isn't even collapsing. He has 0 faith in his OLine and 0 faith in his ability to stand in there. Scared of being hurt, unable to read the defense, indecisive. If anyone would like to defend Speight outside of the "he's won the job two years in a row so the coaches must know something we don't" defense, I'd like to hear it
September 24th, 2017 at 10:53 PM ^
September 25th, 2017 at 12:15 AM ^
I have no personal vendetta against Wilton Speight. I've been one of his loudest supporters. And sure those moments happen, but twice in the first three drives.... I just don't know. O'Korn looked terrible against Indiana last year and that's why throuought this season I've been very resistant to him starting. But he showed me something Saturday that I haven't seen since he came to Michigan. And the whole objective of this post was simply to say that compared to Speight and looking at his performance, JO'K earned a chance to take us to the promised land
September 24th, 2017 at 7:37 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 9:20 PM ^
You have to pick a QB by week 4. Think about 2015 OSU for instance. The hot potato situation at QB with Cardale and JT plagued them that whole year. You have to pick a guy and go with him. I'm going to pick the guy who moved the ball. He needs to grow with this offense moving forward
September 24th, 2017 at 9:29 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 9:41 PM ^
Another consideration is that Speight's Adjusted QBR has fallen each game this season. He started with a 48.7 against Florida and it fell to 30.5 against AF. Compare and contrast to O'Korn who had an 84.6 against Purdue.
I'm afraid Speight broke more than his collarbone (shoulder injury/whaterver) against Iowa, he also broke his mojo. His best game as a QB, as measured by Adjusted QBR, occured just one week prior to the Iowa game, Speight had a 99.8 against Maryland. Unfortunately Iowa did happen, his shoulder was injured, and he has not been nearly the same since. He followed Iowa with a 44 against OSU, raised it a bit against FSU in the Orange Bowl, 67.8, and it's been downhill ever since.
September 29th, 2017 at 12:56 PM ^
Ask Alex Smith about that. He got hurt and Colin Kaepernick took over. Smith never got his job back. If JOK continues to play well I think Harbaugh will roll with him.
September 24th, 2017 at 8:46 PM ^
This is just a question from a hot take. I did not go back and rewatch the game. I am totally on board that O'Korn played a good game and did significantly better than anything we've seen from Speight this year and deserves the chance to play. But, my question is did he ever look off a defender and throw to another guy? He seem to make one of two throws. One, his primary reciever whom he never looked away from before making this throw. Two, a secondary reciever only after the rush comes in and the routes change/break down. I'm not sure he has the ability to look off a defender and read the defense.
My fear is he was motivated and made the most of his chance. His former coach at Houston that benched him coached for Purdue. He wanted more than anything to prove him wrong. He knew this was the one game we wanted to get in all year. And, he's a bit of a gunslinger. Which MAY mean we plays better without a ton of preperation versus a more cerebral QB that loves preperaton. He may actually regress once he knows he's the guy and has the stress and pressure to perform.
September 25th, 2017 at 12:17 AM ^
He was a bit too locked in. Jimmy H will have to work on that with him in the future for sure
September 25th, 2017 at 4:24 PM ^
TBH, not sure it mattered much in this game. Purdue was playing way off our WR's, and our dudes were wide open.
Maybe the coaches were telling him that it's not a problem in this game since Purdue DB's were not playing press, nor could they follow our mesh routes.
With a bye week coming, so full two weeks of reps with first team, I think we'll see exactly what O'Korn is made of vs MSU. Night game, rivalry game, big stage. Time to see if he's for real (against another sub-par secondary).
September 24th, 2017 at 9:03 PM ^
Having quality QBs that can step in and play is a luxory many teams not named Georgia have. Ask Jimbo. I believe we have 3 servicable QBs that can play.
I'm not ready to go with such a small sample yet as far as O'Korn. The playbook looked very simple for him this time and he did well. Maybe he can use more of it with a couple weeks of practice. I think the coaches will see.
Speight has been pounded by defences that were abetted by an O-line that needs improvement. Has the beating changed him? Not sure, but I'd be gun shy, too. He needs protection to be a game manager.
Being lighter on his feet, O'Korn can mitigate some of the O-line weakness, but he will still get hit. If Purdue is hitting him--then Everybody will be hitting him. I wish we had a left-handed QB like Morris to lean on the other side of the line.
September 24th, 2017 at 10:34 PM ^
September 25th, 2017 at 10:45 AM ^
How much did Purdue's ejections/injuries help O'Korn? How much did Purdue not prepping for O'Korn help O'Korn? I think O'Korn played better than Speight, but everyone seems to be throwing Speight under the bus and crowning O'Korn as the new starting QB. As long as we have a solid QB, I don't care who it is, but I think the O'Korn Corination is a bit pre-mature.
1. Purdue's defense sucks.
2. I believe one starter was injured in the first half and one in the second (Hunte?). Their 3x captian and starting middle LB was ejected for targeting at the beginning of Q4 and their starting DE was ejected halfway through Q3 for targeting.
3. After all of the targeting calls Purdue most likely was more catuious about their hitting.
4. Purdue didn't prep for O'Korn.
If O'Korn starts and kills it against MSU, I'll jump on the bandwagon. I'm just fragile because I've been hurt before.
September 25th, 2017 at 12:40 PM ^
September 25th, 2017 at 12:53 PM ^
September 25th, 2017 at 4:28 PM ^
While O'Korn definitely looked more confident and turned in a very good performance, I don't think we should completely discount the apparent playcalling adjustments.
Most of the praise of O'Korn seems to neglect the period between the first and second touchdown drives, which was pretty grim (for the whole offense, not just O'Korn).
Neglecting the 15 second EOH drive, Michigan's next 5 drives went:
1) 3 plays, 0 yards, INT
2) 3 plays, 6 yards, punt
3) 3 plays, -5 yards, punt
4) 6 plays, 27 yards, punt
5) 2 plays, 25 yards, fumble
That's ugly football. Over that period O'Korn completed only 50% of his passes (a couple of the completions being short screens) and took a couple sacks / no gain scrambles.
Biggest change seemed to be going to play-action passing on 1st and 2nd downs, and emphasizing short/intermediate routes to the TEs rather than longer routes to the WRs. Once we stopped running for no gain on 1st and 2nd, the whole offense opened up and O'Korn was killer.
Would Speight have been able to execute that gameplan? I don't know. But I'm pretty sure without the playcalling shift, we'd have been in trouble with either QB.
September 26th, 2017 at 10:16 PM ^
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