WBB vs Nebraska: Most mistakes loses, Nebraska wins

Submitted by jplwhite on February 7th, 2024 at 6:25 AM

Ok, so I’m going to adjust the Offense/Defense section to a breakdown by quarter to see how I like that. I think it should help show the flow of the game better, but let me know what you think.

Opponent: Nebraska (15-8, 7-5 B1G, 6th place)

Result: Loss, 65-59

Record: 15-9, 6-6 B1G, 7th place

Date:  2/6, Home

Starters: Laila Phelia, Lauren Hansen, Jordan Hobbs, Chyra Evans, Elissa Brett (9 starts together this season)

Injuries/inactives: 

  • Sollom, Brown,  and Crockett all dressed but did not play

1st quarter:

  • Michigan got its first bucket off a slick give and go from Evans to Hobbs for an open layup 
  • Nebraska seemed determined to make plenty of their own mistakes and dropped an easy defensive rebound out of bounds
  • Michigan shot 2-6 in the first four minutes, not much worse than the shooting percentage they ended the game with
  • Defense caused a shot clock violation as well as a desperate pass into post with the clock winding down that went out to Michigan
  • Hansen hit a three in front of the Nebraska bench, then came down the court and drew an offensive foul
  • Cam Williams had two layups back to back, one to the right and one to the left
  • Brett airballed her first two attempts from deep. Her shot did not get better
  • Woodson got lost on defense and left her player open from three. Nebraska missed, but Woodson got the rebound, drove the length of the court, and committed a charge
  • Phelia made the last bucket of quarter driving to her left, rising for a jumper over two defenders
  • Not a great quarter, but Nebraska’s disjointed offense kept Michigan in it

2nd quarter: 

  • Evans traveled on back to back possessions
  • Taylor Williams came in and the 1-2-2 press immediately created a turnover. Hansen spotted the errant pass, came away with the steal, and ran it out for an easy layup
  • Nebraska drove baseline, kicked out to the corner and around to the top of the key for an open three that Michigan couldn't close out
  • Nebraska got within 3, but Hobbs found Hansen open in the corner to make it 6 again
  • Phelia ran into the paint for an offensive rebound, turned and hit an acrobatic shot falling away
  • Up 1 at end of half, Michigan forced a shot clock violation, but Hansen couldn't find an open look and missed from well beyond the arc

3rd quarter: 

  • Nebraska went up 1 on the first possession of the second half, with Markowski working her way around Evans in the post. Phelia responded with a hard drive for a layup and one
  • Evans had passes intercepted on back to back possessions, then received a nice pass from Hobbs for her first points
    • Evans then committed two fouls on one defensive possession for four total and had to sit
  • Nebraska had a pretty possession with four quick passes to find the open three, then got it to an open Markowski in the post to take a four point lead
  • Phelia created a turnover by tipping the ball out off Nebraska, then Stuck hit a three for her first points and the one point lead
  • At the end of the quarter, Michigan held Nebraska on defense, but Hobbs couldn't sink an open three to tie

4th quarter: 

  • Hobbs got the first look of the quarter and made the three this time to tie
  • Nebraska missed an open layup, then committed a foul reaching around on what could have been a jump ball
  • Nebraska got 4 points on a possession where they hit the bucket, but missed the free throw. Markowski got to the offensive rebound and tipped it in
  • Hansen hit a three to cut the lead to two, but Brett went to draw a charge the next play, got called for a block, and fouled out with 4 minutes to go
  • Evans fouled out with 2 minutes left going for an offensive rebound. Nebraska was in the bonus and hit 1 of 2 to go up 6 points
  • Hobbs drove, drew a foul, and made the free throw to cut the lead to three. With Phelia at the top of the press, Nebraska lobbed a pass that Hansen intercepted, but Michigan couldn't capitalize
  • Down four with 20 seconds left, Hobbs got two looks at the basket, but couldn't hit either. Michigan fouled and Nebraska missed the second free throw, but came away with the offensive rebound

Notable stats:

  • Michigan had 13 more shot attempts than Nebraska tonight, but shot 39% from the field to Nebraska’s 47%. 
    • Both teams made 5 three pointers, Michigan 5-20 and Nebraska 5-19
  • Hobbs led the team with 16 points on 6-14 shooting, though three of those misses came in the last minute play
  • Cam Williams also played well with 14 points on 7-11 shooting
  • Michigan had four players score in double digits (Hansen and Phelia being the other two), but everybody else scored 3 points or less

Overall: 

  • Michigan has now lost both games this season to a Nebraska team they can definitely play with defensively. Unfortunately, they couldn’t hit enough shots in either game to pull it out. This game was closer than six points until it was time to foul, but Michigan was unable to take the lead back once they surrendered it. Michigan came into this game tied with Nebraska for 6th in the B1G, but now sits squarely in 7th. 

Up next: 

  • 2/10: home vs Rutgers (7-18, 1-11 B1G, last in B1G) at 2pm on Big Ten Network
    • Second meeting, first was an away win 56-50, which one commentator accurately termed a “rock fight”. Since then, they lost two more games, but just got their first B1G win of the season by 1 point at Nebraska, then lost to Maryland
    • Three players are averaging double digit points per game: Kaylene Smikle (16.1), Destiny Adams (14.7), and Mya Petticord (10.1)
      • Smikle sustained an injury on 12/30 and hasn’t played since then, so Adams is the current active points leader
  • 2/15: away at #2 Iowa (21-2, 10-1 B1G, first place B1G) at 8pm on Peacock
    • According to the transitive property of sports, we should be able to beat Iowa since Ohio State beat Iowa and Michigan beat Ohio State…right?
    • Ok, to be fair to the fact that Iowa is the best team in the B1G by a mile this year, they have also beaten 4 teams that have beaten Michigan. They beat Nebraska by 19, Indiana by 27, Michigan State by 3, and Minnesota by 23.
    • Caitlin Clark
      • Barring apocalypse, Clark will become the all-time leading scorer of women’s college basketball either the game before this when Iowa plays Nebraska or during this game against Michigan. She is also, knock on wood, projected to eclipse Pete Maravich this season.
      • The last 3 seasons, Clark averaged around 27 points per game. This season she is at 32.4 points per game. 
      • She has 4 triple-doubles and 8 double-doubles this season
    • Iowa also has other good players like Hannah Stuelke and Kate Martin

Most recent bracketology: 

  • ESPN has Michigan as an 11 seed and one of the “last four in” (updated 2/6)
    • 7 B1G teams in the field
  • College Sports Madness has Michigan as an 11 seed (2/6)
    • 7 B1G teams in field
  • Her Hoop Stats has Michigan as one of the “first four out” (2/1)
    • 8 B1G teams in field

HenneManCrush

February 7th, 2024 at 9:13 AM ^

That one hurts and could end up being the reason they miss the tournament. The two teams were situated right next to each other in the HHS rankings. You can't drop games at home against those teams when you're already in Last Four In status.

Their remaining games are not going to do them any favors, either, with trips to both Iowa City and Columbus that you would expect to be big losses. They really can't afford to lose any of the other remaining games: Rutgers (H), MSU (H), Northwestern (A), Purdue (H).

Do you find it at all baffling how little Alyssa Crockett has played this year? I worry about her being a transfer risk. She was the #48 overall player in her class and is a solid player who can move between the 3 and 4 spots. She's a decent rebounder, good defender, good passer, provides outside shooting, and rarely makes mistakes. Her minutes as of today are essentially half of what she played last year (168 to 320), and yet in that time she still has come close to matching her points (40 to 48), rebounds (31 to 34), assists (15 to 19), and blocks (7 to 8) from last year and isn't far behind on steals (11 to 16), either. In other words, her minutes have been more efficient, but she is playing less. I don't see her as being someone you build the team around, but she seems like she could be a high-floor, low-risk stalwart type that will give you a really good game here and there.

I guess I would expect she will see a significant uptick in playing time next year with Hansen, Brett, Cam Williams, Stuck, and Sollom gone. Next year you're going to have Phelia, Hobbs, and Evans starting with someone to slot into the 1 and 4 spots. The 4 spot will either likely be Taylor Williams , Crockett, or Taylor Woodson, with one of the three also being the first off the bench. It just feels like Taylor Woodson is the one taking the minutes that would more likely have been Crockett's which says something about something since she's a true freshman.

jplwhite

February 7th, 2024 at 10:06 AM ^

Yeah, this one really hurt, especially because they were in it the whole way and I really wanted to see them get both of the wins against Nebraska and Rutgers before the very likely loss to Caitlin Clark and friends. The Michigan State game will be a big one at home.

I also don't know what to make of Alyssa Crockett's minutes and hope she stays, especially since she was good friends with Kate Clarke from last year, who is now gone. Crockett got minutes at the beginning of the season, but now seems stuck in the "only if we are desperate" category coming off the bench and I would love to see her get more time. Hopefully KBA has talked with her about her role this year vs next year, but we also have Olson and Swords coming in who will compete for those minutes.

dragonchild

February 7th, 2024 at 12:07 PM ^

I guess the question then is, is this a team with room to improve, or are they what they are?

I'm unable to watch the games, but these stats and summaries tell me they're rather sloppy.  That's something that can be cleaned up in theory, but they've been struggling with turnovers and fouls for quite some time now.

jplwhite

February 7th, 2024 at 12:23 PM ^

I feel like this is definitely a team with room to grow, but the question is whether that growth will happen this year, next year, or not at all. We're starting two juniors and a sophomore who were both with the team last year as well as two grad transfers who are new to the team. So there's room to grow individually and as a team and hopefully KBA can get them to put it together sooner rather than later.

Zoltanrules

February 7th, 2024 at 10:51 AM ^

Many unforced turnovers along with charging/blocking calls gave Nebraska the game that was there for the taking. Markowski was a load down low.

Curious why don't we foul once in a while with someone who has "fouls to give" when behind and needing to conserve the clock, or to slow down fast break momentum of the opponent? Seems like I'd rather put a 70% or lower shooter on the line, than surrender an open 3 or waste clock.

Zoltanrules

February 7th, 2024 at 11:42 AM ^

In mentioning Caitlin Clark breaking Pete Maravich's all time scoring record later this year, Maravich scored 3,667 points in a three-year stretch at LSU ( freshmen couldn't play varsity).

Pistol Pete averaged 44.2 points over 83 games with no 3 point shot. Clark trails his record by 654 points and could break it in the Big Ten tournament if she keeps up a 29.7 ppg average.

Had there been a three point line Maravich is estimated to have scored over 4500 points at LSU! Dale Brown charted his shots and calculated with the 3 point shot he would have averaged over 55 points per game.

Clark is an amazing player, but Pete Maravich stands alone.

Indy Pete - Go Blue

February 7th, 2024 at 4:01 PM ^

Great stuff jp - while the women’s team seems to be trailing off, you are improving every week. I really like this format where you break it down by quarter. Thanks for putting all the work in and sharing your energy and talents with us!