WBB Potential first round opponents

With selection Sunday less than a week away, we will soon have an answer to this question, but I figured I would take a quick look at Michigan Women’s Basketball’s potential first round opponents. Michigan is projected as a 10 seed on most of the bracketology I’ve seen, so I’m going to look at the potential 7 seeds as well as the teams Michigan might play if they move up to a 9 seed or down to an 11 seed. I’m going to use the ESPN projections just for my own sanity and not having to cross reference multiple times, so caveat that Michigan’s first round opponent may not be on this list, but hopefully they are. Here is a link to those projections, which were last updated 3/13 after the completion of most of the conference championships. Unfortunately I don’t have the time or energy to try and look at highlights to analyze play styles, so this will mostly be win/loss and stat leaders.

For record comparison, Michigan finished 20-13, 9-9 B1G, 47 in NET rankings

6 seeds  (if Michigan is an 11 seed)

• Baylor (24-7, 12-6 Big 12, 18 NET)
  • Signature wins over then #4 Utah and #5 Texas early in the season while starting the season 16-0, then lost to Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals. Finished the season ranked #19 in the AP poll. 
  • Three players average above 10 points a game: senior forward Dre’Una Edwards (12. ppg), senior guard Sarah Andrews (11.1), and sophomore guard Darianna Littlepage-Buggs (10.5)
• Duke (20-11, 11-7 ACC, 20 NET)
  • Signature win came pretty late in the season, beating then #6 NC State right before the conference tournament, but then lost to NC State just 12 days later in the ACC quarterfinals. Went 4-7 against ranked teams this season.
  • Junior guard Reigan Richardson averages 11.5 points per game and had five games above 20 points this season. Sophomore guard Taina Mair averages 10.2 points per game and leads the team with 3.7 assists per game and 1.5 steals per game. 
• West Virginia (24-7, 12-6 Big 12, 21 NET)
  • Their only wins over ranked teams this season are early in the season against then #25 Penn State and late in the season against #23 Oklahoma. They finished their season in the Big 12 quarterfinals with a loss to Kansas State. 
  • Junior guard JJ Quinerly leads the team and is 29th in the nation with 19.6 points per game. Sophomore guard Jordan Harrison is next with 13.8 ppg, while leading the team with 5.2 assists per game and 3 steals per game. 
• Louisville (24-9, 12-6 ACC, 23 NET)
  • Best win was against then #12 Notre Dame in February, but finished the season by losing to them twice on the last day of the regular season and in the ACC quarterfinals. Finished ranked #24 in the AP poll. 
  • Senior guard Kiki Jefferson leads the team with 12.5 points per game, while three other players average just over 10 points per game: senior guard Sydney Taylor, senior forward Olivia Cochran, and sophomore forward Nyla Harris.

7 seeds (if Michigan is a 10 seed)

• Creighton (25-5, 15-3 Big East, 24 NET)
  • Played two ranked teams (UConn, Marquette) and lost to both this season. Otherwise did well and came in second to UConn in the Big East before losing to Georgetown in the Big East semifinals and finishing the season ranked #23 in the AP poll. 
  • Most of their production comes from three players above 15 points per game: senior guard Lauren Jensen (17.1 ppg), senior forward Emma Ronsiek (16.6 ppg), and senior forward Morgan Maly (15.1 ppg).
• Tennessee (19-12, 10-6 SEC, 30 NET)
  • Only beat one ranked team all season: then #22 Oklahoma in November. However, they almost beat #1 South Carolina in the SEC semifinals and only lost because Kamilla Cardoso hit her first career triple. Tennessee left her wide open from deep, but why wouldn’t you?
  • Senior forward Rickea Jackson leads the team with 19.4 points per game and 8 rebounds per game. Despite losing about a month of the season in November/December to a leg injury, she also leads the team in total points and rebounds. Second in points per game is senior guard Jewel Spear (13.3); second in rebounds per game is junior guard Sara Puckett (5).
• Ole Miss (23-8, 12-4 SEC, 36 NET)
  • Played and beat Michigan 60-49 in November at Battle 4 Atlantis in the worst basketball conference room. This probably eliminates Ole Miss as a first round opponent, but there’s always a chance.
  • Lost to all the ranked teams they played this season: #1 South Carolina, #7/8 LSU twice, then #22 Louisville. Made it to the SEC semifinals before losing to LSU.
  • Senior guard Marquesha Davis leads the team in points per game (14.6) and steals per game (1.5); senior forward Madison Scott is second in points per game (12.4) and leads the team in rebounds per game (6.5) and assists per game (3.4). 
• North Carolina (19-12, 11-7 ACC, 37 NET)
  • Best win was against #6 NC State in February, but went 4-7 against ranked teams throughout the season. If you’re saying “this looks identical to the Duke section”, that is correct. 
  • Senior guard Deja Kelly leads the team in points per game (16.7), while senior guard Alyssa Ustby leads in almost all other categories: 9.3 rebounds per game, 3.6 assists per game, and 1.7 steals per game. 

8 seeds (if Michigan is a 9 seed)

• Michigan State (B1G, so Michigan will not play first round)
• Nebraska (B1G, so Michigan will not play first round)
• Iowa State (20-10, 12-6 Big 12, 35 NET)
  • Signature wins over then #4 Baylor in January and #7 Kansas State in double overtime in February. They are unranked in the final AP poll, but made it to the final of the Big 12 tournament by beating Baylor and Oklahoma before losing to Texas last night. 
  • Freshman center Audi Crooks leads the team in points per game with 18.9, good for 38th in the nation and 4th among all freshmen. Freshman forward Addy Brown is second with 13.1, but leads in rebounds per game (8.3) and assists per game (4.9). Crooks made it onto the all-Big 12 first team, while Brown was an honorable mention. 
• Florida State (23-10, 12-6 ACC, 44 NET)
  • FSU is 4-6 against ranked teams this season with their best wins coming against then #11 Tennessee in their second game of the season and #11 Virginia Tech in January. They missed an opportunity to beat #12 Notre Dame when they took them to double overtime in February. Made it to the semifinal of the ACC tournament before losing to NC State. 
  • Sophomore guard Ta’Niya Latson leads the team with 21.3 points per game, 4.1 assists per game, and 1.6 steals per game. Her ppg is good for 15th in the nation. Junior forward Makayla Timpson is just barely averaging a double-double with 14.1 ppg and 10.0 rpg. 

9 seeds (just because the 8/9 line is so similar, so one of these teams could become an 8, as could Michigan)

• UNLV (28-2, 17-1 Mountain West, 25 NET)
  • UNLV has not played any ranked teams this season and has losses to NET 65 Seton Hall by 30 points and NET 154 New Mexico by 3. Their best wins are over NET 35 Arizona at home and NET 28 Oklahoma away. They finished the season ranked #21 in the AP poll. They made it to the Championship of the Mountain West tournament and play San Diego State tonight.
  • Senior center Desi-Rae Young leads the team with 17.9 points per game and 9 rebounds per game. Points production drops off a cliff after that, as the next closest is junior guard Kiara Jackson with 11.3 ppg. Junior guard Alyssa Durazo-Frescas is shooting 45% from three this season, good for 8th in the nation, but is only averaging 8.1 points per game. 
• Alabama (23-9, 10-6 SEC, 31 NET)
  • Alabama is 1-3 against ranked teams this season, with the lone win coming against then #20 Louisville in November. To end the regular season, they beat NET 41 Texas A&M, NET 48 Mississippi St, and NET 60 Florida, before losing to Tennessee in the SEC quarterfinals. 
  • Senior guard Sarah Ashlee Barker leads the team with 17.2 points per game, 6.4 rebounds per game, and 2 steals per game. Senior guard Aaliyah Nye is second with 14 points per game and shot 42.6% from three this season. 
• Princeton (23-4, 13-1 Ivy League, 33 NET)
  • Princeton is 1-2 against ranked teams, with all of those games in November and the lone win against then #22 Oklahoma. They have just one loss since the beginning of December, to fellow Ivy League leader Columbia (NET 53). The four team Ivy League Tournament starts Friday when Princeton will play UPenn. 
  • Senior guard Kaitlyn Chen leads the team with 15.6 points per game and 5 assists per game. Senior forward Ellie Mitchell leads in rebounds per game with 10, but is only scoring 5.2 ppg. 
• Kansas (19-12, 11-7 Big 12, 38 NET)
  • Kansas has three wins against ranked teams: over then #4 Baylor in January, #10 Kansas State in February, and #20 Oklahoma in March, all at home. They made it to the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament before losing to Texas. 
  • Freshman guard S’Mya Nichols leads the team in points per game (15.2), assists per game (2.7), and steals per game (1.4). Two players are shooting above 40% from three this season: Nichols (40.8%) and senior guard Holly Kersgieter (41.5%).