WBB: Key game today for Michigan at noon vs. Purdue
The Michigan women's basketball team has an important home game today vs. #25 Purdue, tipping off at noon and televised on the BTN. The Wolverines beat the Boilermakers in convincing fashion earlier this year in West Lafayette, 65-49. A win today would translate into Michigan's first season sweep of Purdue since the 1997-98 season. Purdue is now playing without their leading scorer, KK Houser, who suffered a torn ACL a week ago. Despite the loss of Houser, the Boilermakers beat OSU on Thursday, 74-58.
Michigan is currently tied for fourth in the Big Ten, and I think any run at the conference title is unlikely given the team's youth and inexperience and a very tough schedule down the stretch. That schedule, though, provides the team with four golden opportunities to pick up signature wins to enhance their NCAA tourney resume. In addition to today's game, the remaining schedule also include matchups against three other top Big Ten teams (and teams with top 50 RPIs)—Nebraska, Iowa, and Penn State.
If the Wolverines can win two of those four games and win the other two upcoming games (road tilts against Indiana and Illinois), that might be enough to get them in. That would put them at 19-10 overall, give them a couple more signature wins, and boost their RPI. They really need to improve their RPI to have a chance at a berth, as it currently stands at around 80. Winning four of the last six would give them a 10-6 Big Ten record and probably put them in fifth or sixth place. That would mean a first-round BTT game against one of the lesser teams, giving them a good shot at 20 wins.
Massey has today's game as a close one, with Purdue predicted to win 72-69. The win probability for Michigan is 43%.
February 9th, 2014 at 11:41 AM ^
has there ever been any research into the frequency of ACL or knee in juries in general in WBB? M had about 5 players have that issue and it seems to be a more common occurance in the women's game than the men's.
February 9th, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^
http://www.comprehensiveorthopaedics.com/News/customer-files/anterior.p…
From what I understand of it, the ACL is an estrogen receptor and that causes it to be weaker in females than males among other, maybe less significant factors. Acecdotally, pretty much every female ACL tear I've heard of happens at a certain time of the month which causes me to use a tiny sample size to back that claim up in my own head.
February 9th, 2014 at 12:14 PM ^
WTF. How many people did purdue bring?
It's like a neutral site game.
February 9th, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^
6-0 Michigan after the first media timeout!
February 9th, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^
Pretty good start. Michigan up 10-2, at the under 12:00 timeout. Purdue yet to hit a field goal (0-11 shooting).
February 9th, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^
3 for Rakers and Ristovski and Michigan leads 18-9 at the under 8 timeout!
February 9th, 2014 at 12:31 PM ^
purdue takes a timeout after Ristovski hits another 3! 23-9 lead!
February 9th, 2014 at 12:31 PM ^
Michigan 4-for-6 from 3-point range, now up 23-9.
February 9th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^
Some real foul trouble for Michigan—Cyesha Goree, Val Driscoll, and Siera Thompson all with two late in first half. 27-17 Michigan with 4:50 left.
February 9th, 2014 at 12:38 PM ^
February 10th, 2014 at 10:38 AM ^
February 9th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
10-0 run for Purdue. Michigan's lead down to 4.
February 9th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^
Driscoll picks up her 3rd foul in final minute of half. Purdue has cut the lead to 29-27, which is how the half ends.
February 9th, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^
Raoul, this is probably a stupid question, but if Michigan does NOT make the NCAA Tournament but still has a decent finish to the regular season, I don't think I'd be too bummed.
Would winning the WNIT be better than squeaking into the NCAAs and getting smoked in the First or Second Round by a regional host?
February 9th, 2014 at 1:04 PM ^
Getting some experience in the NCAA tourney this year could help the team make a deeper run next year, so I'd prefer them squeaking into the tourney over anything else.
February 9th, 2014 at 12:54 PM ^
Lol Illinois is dead last in the B1G in Men's and Women's basketball.
That just sucks.
February 9th, 2014 at 12:58 PM ^
Only if you're one of the handful of people who give two shits about Illinois basketball these days.
February 9th, 2014 at 1:51 PM ^
Well, at least they can always count on their football team to be good........
February 10th, 2014 at 10:38 AM ^
February 9th, 2014 at 1:11 PM ^
Decent start to 2nd half, as Michigan now up 37-31, but Goree picking up her 3rd foul does not bode well.
February 9th, 2014 at 1:16 PM ^
Go Blue! Beat Purdue!
February 9th, 2014 at 1:19 PM ^
Key point in the game, as Purdue takes its first lead 40-39. And another triple, and it's now Purdue 43-39 with 11:51 to go.
February 9th, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^
February 9th, 2014 at 1:27 PM ^
February 9th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^
Michigan cuts lead to 1. Purdue up 51-50 with 5:18 left.
February 9th, 2014 at 1:39 PM ^
February 9th, 2014 at 1:40 PM ^
Still 51-50 Purdue at the under 4:00 timeout. Game is up for grabs.
February 9th, 2014 at 1:47 PM ^
February 9th, 2014 at 1:48 PM ^
February 10th, 2014 at 10:37 AM ^
February 9th, 2014 at 1:49 PM ^
Wow. Purdue, after going nearly 5 minutes without scoring, then hits two straight threes. Michigan had its chances but simply couldn't score down the stretch.
February 9th, 2014 at 1:58 PM ^
Final is Purdue 65, Michigan 56.
That was disappointing given how many chances they had in the final minutes to take the lead. Next game is on Thursday against Nebraska at Crisler, and that will be a tough one as the Cornhuskers are the hottest team in the conference right now.
February 10th, 2014 at 9:45 AM ^
February 9th, 2014 at 8:31 PM ^
February 9th, 2014 at 10:20 PM ^
I wouldn't disagree that the team could use more size (which they'll have next year), but I don't think that's why they're wearing down (if indeed they are). Blame that on having a short bench. Having your freshman point guard playing 40 minutes a game is eventually going to catch up with you.
I think the bigger problem today was Michigan's frontcourt players getting into foul trouble. If Goree and Driscoll had stayed out of foul trouble, they probably win the game. When you have such a short bench, foul trouble is eventually going to cost you a game.
EDIT: One further thought on this: Purdue provided a perfect example of the importance of depth on a roster. They lose their leading scorer to injury, and Michigan holds their #2 scorer to just 2 points, but they still win because a bunch of players stepped up off the bench to hit some key baskets.
February 10th, 2014 at 10:06 AM ^
February 10th, 2014 at 2:21 PM ^
February 10th, 2014 at 3:35 PM ^
In the latest espnW bracketology, Michigan has fallen out of even the "next four out" category, but their hopes for an NCAA bid aren't dead. Charlie Creme highlights in this article how the bubble teams keep stumbling. He also has Indiana in the field, a team that played a very weak nonconference schedule and has only one notable Big Ten win. Other than a couple more wins, the only thing Indiana has going for it compared to Michigan is a better RPI (something that Massey disagrees with). What Indiana's place in his field shows is that the final teams in don't have impressive resumes—leaving the door open for teams like Michigan.
I think the formula for a bid for the Wolverines remains the same—improve the RPI, get a couple more signature wins, and get to the 20-win mark.