The Vig - Week 11
The season is flying by - only a few weeks left to make hay.
I was a Maryland TD away from cashing tickets worth ~25 units last week. Finished 3-2 overall up 2 units.
Games I'm considering:
OSU -19.5 vs MSU AND O 68.5
Wake (+172) @ Clemson
SMU +11.5 @ Cincinnati
Oregon (+134) @ Utah
Bama -21.5 vs. Arkansas
ULL +4.5 @ Liberty
How'd your week go? What games do you like?
November 19th, 2021 at 8:16 AM ^
Hit a 4 leg same game parlay on the Michigan game last week. Under 1st quarter, under 1st half, under game, and Michigan -1.5. Went 2-4 on everything else. Betting big ten underdogs wasn't a good strategy last week.
I'll probably put some money on Wake and OSU this week. Maybe the over also for OSU/MSU.
November 20th, 2021 at 1:28 AM ^
Anyone else chomping on the bit of UM -7.5 in the first half? Wow is that tempting.
November 19th, 2021 at 8:23 AM ^
Last week I parlayed Michigan on the moneyline, and Baylor getting 4.
I also put just some money on Michigan when it was a pickem. In all honesty I just recouped all my losses from the previous week.
I am staying away from the Ohio game mainly because I don’t like putting money on either of those teams. For now I will just put some money on Michigan and the over. I like Utah too.
November 19th, 2021 at 9:25 AM ^
Agree with Utah.
November 19th, 2021 at 12:29 PM ^
eh i see a scenario where M plays back ups early in this one and gives up some garbage time TDs
November 19th, 2021 at 8:30 AM ^
what about Iowa State @ Oklahoma (-3.5) ? That's an interesting spread.
Purdue (-11) @ Northwestern looks interesting too.
Has Frost lost Nebraska?
Nebraska @ Wisconsin (-9)
November 19th, 2021 at 8:33 AM ^
I won Baylor over Oklahoma last week I also picked Sparty over Maryland
Expected Purdue to last longer against OSU
I lost Miami vs FSU (lost that in the last 30 seconds)
I also lost Washington vs ASU, Herm Edwards let them score in the last second.
was 2-3 last week.
November 19th, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
Has Frost lost Nebraska?
Nebraska @ Wisconsin (-9)
I don't think Frost has lost Nebraska so much as Nebraska is 3-7 and Wisconsin is finally playing like people expected them to. But I'd probably take Nebraska with the points, since six of their seven losses have been one-score games, with the only outlier being a nine-point loss to OSU...
November 19th, 2021 at 8:37 AM ^
I really like that ULL line. They've had a few shaky games (that they won) on the road this year, but they've been overall probably the best G5 team outside of Cincinnati after dropping the Texas game. Might be close, but I'd take ULL and points all day.
I'd stay away from Bama. Arkansas is still capable of running the ball and chewing a lot of clock, and Bama has put up more uncharacteristic clunkers this year than the last few years.
November 19th, 2021 at 8:52 AM ^
My last week went well.
I had MSU and OSU money lines I was hoping would miss, and averted disaster by putting $10 on PSU. You’re all welcome.
As for bets I wanted to win, I had a parlay and round robin on the UM/PSU over, Wisconsin -21, and Rutger straight up.
Obviously lost the parlay but covered all my losses by hitting 2/3 on the round robin.
This week I’m much bolder. I have hedge bets of $5 on Maryland and $20 on MSU straight up. The bets I want to win (parlayed and round robins for days):
Minnesota -6.5
Wake Forest to win
Purdue -11.5
Iowa/Illinois under 37.5
Wisconsin -10.5
Indiana is just to bad, I’m not sure they’d cover a 20 point spread, Clemson isn’t scoring enough to hang with Wake Forest this year, Northwestern won’t be able to stay within 20 either IMO, Iowa and Illinois both want a rock fight, so a rock fight shall be had, and Wisconsin is turning it on down the stretch while Nebraska limps in with a bunch of drama regarding the coaching staff.
Break all the legs you degenerates!
November 19th, 2021 at 9:15 AM ^
Maction earlier this week:
Toledo/Ohio Over 54.5 - win
EMU TT over 29.5 - loss
CMU/Ball St Over 61.5 - loss
NIU -1.5 over Buff - win
Thursday
Louisville/Duke Over 60.5 - win
Saturday
ISU/OU over 60.5
NMSU +36.5 against UK
OSU TT over 42.5
Minnesota -7.5 over IU
UTSA -4.5 over UAB
November 19th, 2021 at 9:32 AM ^
Hmm I just got a $25 risk free NCAAF bet credited to my account. I need a lock of the week!
November 19th, 2021 at 9:36 AM ^
OSU moneyline. Enjoy your $0.59 winnings. You're welcome.
November 19th, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
I was thinking that also. I just don't see how MSU is going to slow them down at all and MSU will score their typical 20-30 points. I see something like 48-28.
November 19th, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
MSU +19 is my lock of the week.
Everyone talking about OSU passing game vs. MSU (as they should) but OSU has given up points and yards to every decent offense. They gave up 400 yards passing to Penn State! MSUs is also going to dare OSU to run the ball 50 times at their stud DTs.
I expect MSU to keep this VERY close - Reed will have 200+ yards receiving. 31-28 OSU wins is my call.
November 19th, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^
I think -19 is a hedge. I don’t think OSU wins with a reasonable score of 41-21 or something like that. I think it’s really close like you are saying or they win by a stupid score like 52-10.
I think I’m gonna tease it and reverse sweetheart it as well.
November 19th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
OSU hasn't come close to running it 50 times against anyone. Why would they do that against the worst pass defense in the nation?
November 19th, 2021 at 11:13 AM ^
Because Day takes what the defense gives you. MSU is going to play 5 DBs and 2 LBs in Zone and make OSU run or dink and dunk. Just watch - OSU will be frustrated having to move down the field 5 yds at a time.
November 19th, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
No, you aren't paying attention at all. Day most certainly does not take what the defense gives.
He's going to pass 40 times plus no matter what the defense does.
November 19th, 2021 at 2:51 PM ^
Gosh, if it's that easy, why haven't other teams that don't have the worst pass defense in the country just do that?
You know, there's an MNWolverine over at 247 that loves to talk up MSU as well.
November 19th, 2021 at 9:46 AM ^
Ohio St is 5-18-1 vs the spread the week before Michigan since 1996. 0-7 since 2013, include two of those to Sparty. Taking the points there. Might even sprinkle some moneyline if I get a free bet.
I think Oregon is undervalued getting plus money. Their advanced numbers are meh but they get up for big matchups under Cristobal. Also like the +3/3.5
Clemson's offense isn't great but most of their worst performances were against good defenses or weather games. Wake doesn't have a good defense. I like Clemson and the over
Also, would it be shocking if Illinois beat Iowa (in several OTs)? Might be worth a couple bucks at +385
November 19th, 2021 at 9:53 AM ^
Love stacking units, dude.
November 19th, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
SMU is Smooth Jimmy's ? of the Week.
Pony Fever!
November 19th, 2021 at 8:57 PM ^
Mine as well $$$