AA2Denver

June 24th, 2015 at 11:22 PM ^

Illinois: 4 (minus-175/over) sounds right

Indiana: 5.5 (minus-130/under)  undfer

Iowa: 7.5 (minus-120/under) under

Maryland: 4.5 (minus-120/over) over

Michigan: 7.5 (minus-125/under) over

Michigan State: 9.5 (minus-130/over) over

Minnesota: 6 (minus-145/under) over (stone cold lock)

Nebraska: 8 (minus-140/over) under

Northwestern: 6 (minus-140/over) sounds right

Ohio State: 11.5 (minus-180/under) under

Penn State: 8 (minus-125/over) sounds right

Purdue: 4 (minus-120/over) sounds right

Rutgers: 5 (minus-120/over) sounds right

Wisconsin: 9.5 (minus-140/over) under 

Joined: 02/01/2011

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alum96

June 24th, 2015 at 11:43 PM ^

Agree on Minn,  But it might just be 7.  Granted they lost their stud TE but its a quality team that is like a poor man's MSU of 5-6 years ago. 

Minn has Kent State and Ohio as 2 MAC walkovers.   Some combination of Purdue, Ill, and NW should yield 2 wins - that's 4 wins (they could sweep but some of those are on the road).  They will lose to say MSU, OSU, and TCU. 

That leaves 5 games they will need to win 3

  • Wisc
  • Iowa
  • UM
  • Neb
  • Co State

Iowa is on the road and hopefully by Halloween UM has improved enough to take Minn but its a road game so thats a toss up game to me.  As is hosting Neb.  They also host Wisconsin and that could be an upset.  Co State is on the road with a new staff so no idea on that one.

So if they win 2 of those 5 that's 6 total, if they win 3 it's 7.  They have a tough road to get to 8 wins.  Would need to sweep those 3 Big 10 teams they "should" beat but upsets happen too.

Joined: 04/28/2012

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alum96

June 24th, 2015 at 11:53 PM ^

Just thinking strictly Vegas UM will not be favored in 5 games I imagine - OSU, MSU, @Utah (confirmed), @PSU, and @Minn (probably close to a push on the last one).  So based on that alone a 7-5 record is what Vegas would project so the 7.5 makes sense.  Of course its not that simple in the real world. 

I am not sure UM will be favored @MD either although as stated earlier I think MD will be down this year.  UM needs to show it has escaped the orbital pull of Hoke and can beat .500ish teams on the road.  BYU will prob be a line close to 2-3 as well.  So it's really 7 games UM will either not be favored or a small one.

Joined: 04/28/2012

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I Like Burgers

June 25th, 2015 at 8:07 AM ^

I think I'd take the over on Ohio State and bet on them to go undefeated.  That's such a loaded, talented team from top to bottom.  As much as I'd love to see it, I just don't think Michigan State has what it takes to beat them on the road, and I don't think Michigan can beat them either.  I mean, I'd love to see it, but if you're betting with your wallet, and not your heart pretty much everything says that should be a loss for Michigan.

Joined: 10/06/2012

MGoPoints: 30575

Michigan4Life

June 24th, 2015 at 11:33 PM ^

I have Michigan at 7-8 wins so I'm not completely sure which way to go.  I have Michigan losing to Utah, BYU, MSU and OSU which put them at 8 wins. They could get upset by one team that they shouldn't lose which put them at 7 wins.

Joined: 07/29/2010

MGoPoints: 25248

UofM626

June 25th, 2015 at 12:05 AM ^

So be careful. That means winning out and losing to OSU, MSU, PSU and possibly Utah! Feel much better when it was 6.5 then it was 7 and now it's 7.5

I for one hope we beat OSU and MSU this year! I would give up a bowl game for that scenario.

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MGoPoints: 3443

Marley Nowell

June 25th, 2015 at 12:39 AM ^

I wonder what the "real" line would be if they hadn't made it higher because the Michigan fanbase is large and bets lucratively. I'm thinking 7 wins, which is reasonable considering the past few years.

Joined: 07/31/2008

MGoPoints: 10412

That.Guy

June 25th, 2015 at 6:51 AM ^

People don't seem to realize that this isn't a prediction on how teams will actually finish.  It's a total set to get even amounts of money on both sides of the bet.  

Michigan fans, "8 wins easy because Harbaugh" 

Non-Michigan fans, "No way they win 8, Michigan hasn't been relevant in 10 years."

The line has to be fairly reasonable or they get killed by the sharps, beyond that though it's just a gauge of who's fan base is betting.

Joined: 05/18/2011

MGoPoints: 362

San Diego Mick

June 25th, 2015 at 12:59 AM ^

I might be a homer but I have a good feeling about this team, we have a LOT of guys with experience coming back and one of the best coaching staffs.

If we get any kind of QB play, we'll be a potential top 10 team, no I mean that seriously. Our defense has a chance to be one of the best out there, whenever we've had great defensive teams we were a top ten team.

Remember that Utah has a new QB this year, I'm not sure that game is the sure loss some might think it is, a win there and we're off to the races IMO.

Joined: 05/11/2011

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GotBlueOnMyMind

June 25th, 2015 at 1:37 AM ^

Why is it that being "objective" here means being pessimistic? Pessimist and realist are not synonymous. I get that we likely aren't a 10-11 win team, but saying we're a solid 9 win team is just as realistic as 7. For instance, say we are dogs against Utah, BYU, MSU, and OSU, as many here are. The default seems to be that there's a good chance we'll lose one we shouldn't. However, given that we have Harbaugh and not Hoke, isn't it just as likely that we'll win 1 or 2 that we aren't favored to win? I'm not saying one view point is necessarily more "objective" than the latter. However, and this applies for more than just Michigan sports, it seems like whenever someone says they're being objective, what they're really doing is assuming that more will go wrong than right (aka pessimistic).



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UMBSnMBA

June 25th, 2015 at 9:17 AM ^

Hoke could have gone 7-5 with this team and schedule.  The O Line will be better, running backs, better, someone will arise from the QB scrum who can play behind the improved O Line.  The defense will be good-great.  That all would have happened without Harbaugh.  When you throw in the entusiasm, work ethic and detailed technique coaching that these guys will get, I think that it will be a 10 win season.  I think that they will go out to Utah and surprise everyone.  Utah is really not that good.  The rest will be history.

Harbaugh!

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bronxblue

June 25th, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^

It's funny, I'd take MSU over even though I expect them to blow a game this year they probably shouldn't.  9.5 wins seems really low given their schedule.  

Illinois at 4 wins weirdly seems right to me; after their OOC they probably only have 2 winnable games in conference right now - home vs NW and @Iowa, and the latter is a bit of a stretch.  Woof.

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