Vegas has other thoughts about CFP
Every talking head has Bama in and FSU out.
CFP has shown an SEC bias with the outlier of Tennessee and ranking Georgia #1. As much as I’d love for the SEC to get shafted, my gut felt like Bama would get in over FSU. But Vegas thinks otherwise fwiw. The screenshots are from Fanduel. For non bettors this translates to:
To go to playoff
Bama $100 to win $134
FSU $100 to win $20.83
Georgia $100 to win $1600
Texas $100 to win $26.67
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:15 AM ^
Talking heads have FSU out? A 13-0 P5 champion? That makes no sense
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
It does. We're trying to convince ourselves that fsu should be in so we can play them, which is also no guarantee that we get to play them.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
Who? I am convinced that if FSU gets in, we play Texas as #1. Undefeated FSU will be ranked three.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
I agree with you, but most people in the other thread have Texas at 3 and FSU at 4. I just don’t get the logic of that. Either finishing undefeated matters and FSU finishes ahead of UT and Bama, or it doesn’t and they finish behind both. I don’t see how they could finish ahead of one but behind the other.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:51 AM ^
It matters because they are in the playoffs
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
Huh, if not for a generationally lucky play (a week ago, no less), Bama is 11-2. They do not deserve to get in. Bama getting in over FSU would be the ultimate "we care about history more than this season". Not to mention Bama was gifted 7 points yesterday by a horrendous call and a worse failure to review. That left UGA playing catch-up the rest of the game. Bama is good, but their body of work doesn't afford a CFP birth.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
I'm not arguing that Alabama should be in over FSU. I'm arguing that FSU will be 3rd over Texas. The logic that gets FSU in over Alabama is the same logic that gets FSU ranked higher than Texas.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:10 AM ^
FSU is either 3rd or 6th. If we stay #1 that means we get Texas or Bama. The only way we get FSU is if they put UW at #1 so that they get the Rose Bowl.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
FSU is either 3rd or 6th
Why? Texas beat Alabama by two touchdowns. Isn't it pretty easy to say FSU is better than Alabama but not a team two touchdowns better than Alabama??
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
Honestly, if Bama gets the (rightful) snub, and they want to set up the best theoretical final, they will aim for UM/Texas for the championship. While I'd love to play UW in the semi in the Rose Bowl, matching Texas and FSU in the other semi doesn't hold water. If Texas hadn't dropped a clunker to Oklahoma all of this would be easy with 4 unbeaten teams.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:33 AM ^
Vegas disagrees with this. You can tell from the odds to win the title that they have Michigan facing FSU in the semis. Michigan +115, Texas +350, Washington +500, FSU +1800.
Of course, this can happen with M #2 and FSU #3 or M #1 and FSU #4
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
I think you’re reading too much into that. All that says is Vegas doesn’t think FSU is likely to win 2-straight games in the playoffs. It has nothing to do with whom they think FSU will play round one.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:57 AM ^
Absolutely not. There is no chance they would have Washington at +500 if they were playing FSU in the semis. And equally, no chance they would make Michigan and Texas the two favorites if they were paired in the semis. Neither would be such big favorites against Washington to justify that.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
Eh...I see what you're saying, but at the same time DraftKings (unless they're an outlier here) has FSU bigger favorites to make the playoffs than Texas. I think that's a more direct way to gauge Vegas's thoughts on where teams will be seeded.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
Yes, they have slightly higher odds of FSU to make the playoffs. But if you wish to bet on FSU or Texas to miss the playoffs, the odds are the same, +250.
The difference in the odds to win are more significant and will change substantially if Washington plays FSU in the semis.
*As of 11AM Draft Kings updated odds of making the playoffs; Texas -400 yes, +300 no, FSU -360 yes, +250 no.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^
I've seen Casino. And that cornfield scene still terrifies me. There's no way I'm betting against what they know.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
The SEC bias is real but this year there's no shot. Talking heads only want Michigan to play Bama because they have egg on their faces from the scandal.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^
Opening Odds: Mich giving Bama 4
Texas giving Wash 4.5
Michigan overall favorites to win CFP.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
Yea, the committee will choose the path of least resistance, which is the 3 undefeated P5 conference champions plus the one-loss P5 conference champion who has the head-to-head road victory over the other one-loss P5 conference champion.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
Apparently, the committee can rule out a team based on "personnel."
Under "Principles" from CFP page
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- Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
That's crazy that the committee is charged with making inferences like this. FSU need look no further than Cardale Jones. FSU's D is real, and with our recent difficulty protecting the passer, I think we could be in for an Iowa-on-steroids level slog against them. Which is interesting because I see us in shootouts with UW & UT
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
But with Cardale Jones, Ohio State demolished Wisconsin 59-0 in the B1G championship, while FSU has struggled with Florida and Louisville with backup QBs.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
Correct. Urban Meyer made the same point and it is valid. FSU did not demolish Louisville
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
No, but they beat the #15 team by ten. That's not bad and it's definitely not just eking out a win. Furthermore, FSU will have a better QB playing than they had last night.
It's fair to point out that FSU suffered a significant loss to personnel, but their record since is still good. It seems unfair to say that an injury should cost them their spot because it's going to cause them to lose a game. They keep winning, which is the right argument against that.
Can anyone really say their win against Florida was less convincing than Alabama's win against Auburn played on the same day?
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:36 AM ^
Did you just base a theoretical future on what Urban Meyer thinks from 2014? That means nothing as he was self-advocating and he's a chronic whiner. FSU beat Louisville handily based on a smothering defense. They played to their strength and didn't need to let their QB take risks. 16-6 is what those games look like (see UM history).
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
Alabama did not demolish Auburn one week ago (in fact, Auburn controlled that game). Thus, Alabama is not a good team and is out.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
It does make sense actually. FSU is not a top 4 team without Jordan Travis. They don’t go 13-0 without him, they do not have him now, so there’s valid reason to not evaluate FSU as though they do have him.
On paper, a 13-0 P5 conference champion deserves to go. That’s the argument for them getting in. But the job of the committee is also to put the 4 best teams in the playoff. You have two other 1 loss P5 conference champions who are without a doubt better than FSU without Travis.
Personally I’d rather FSU gets in and gets matched up with Michigan. But there’s certainly a valid argument to be made for them being left out as well.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
This is all so vague. They're not *really* planning on putting the best 4 teams in. Otherwise why exclude Ohio State (whose only loss came to the overall No. 1 on the road by less than a touchdown) or Georgia (whose only loss came in the conference championship game to overall no. 5)? It's sort of ... "the best 4 teams whose only loss, if they have one, didn't come in the last 3 weeks of the season." :-)
Ultimately, this is an absolutely no-win situation for the Committee, and no matter how much people here insist otherwise, there simply is no obvious answer.
Personally I'd hope for FSU and ... um ... maybe Alabama? Texas sure looked good yesterday, and all things considered I'd rather avoid them. Particularly if we'd have to play them in the national championship game, which is in ... Texas.
But I doubt the Committee will take my personal wishes into account. :-)
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
Because it’s not just the four best. It’s a combination of the four best and four most deserving. It gets narrowed down to 5 or 6 teams that “deserve” to get in and from there it’s about getting the best teams in.
FSU deserves to be there. Which is why they’re part of that conversation. But Texas and Bama also deserve to be there. Some would argue OSU and Georgia as well, but the lack of a conference title should exclude them this year. With Michigan and Washington being locks, it becomes a question of who the best teams are between FSU, Bama and Texas. I don’t see how FSU wins in that conversation.
But they ARE undefeated so I could absolutely see them getting in. But if I’m on the committee and my job is to put four deserving teams in the playoff that have a realistic shot at the title, FSU gets left out.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
> It’s a combination of the four best and four most deserving.
Absolutely not, the committee has a clear mandate. Pick the four best teams.
Where there isn't a clear top four, the first tiebreaker is conference championship and the second tiebreaker is head to head.
Under those criteria, it's pretty easy to get Michigan, Washington, FSU and Texas.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
This thread is my thoughts exactly and I put as much in the other playoff thread.
The undefeated conference champions DESERVE a seat at the table no questions asked. But seeding? Yeah, FSU is not the strongest of the 6 possible teams.
I think that the order should be M, Wash, Texas, FSU. I am cynical and believe it will be M Wash, Bama, FSU but either way, no way FSU keeps spot 3. Their year even with Travis has looked just as shaky as Bama has at points. Bama has better players top to bottom and still has their starting QB.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
But it is. If it’s purely 4 best, Bama gets in last year. If it’s purely 4 best, OSU and Georgia deserve to be in the conversation this year.
You have to both have the resume to belong, and be considered one of the best. We have 5 conference champs with 0 or 1 loss. That’s the field of consideration because they’re the most deserving, OSU and Georgia deserve to be in consideration if it’s just the four best.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:37 AM ^
I don't think the committee can start getting into hypotheticals like that. By that reasoning they could say Michigan would be 9-3 if (insert some bullshit that didn't happen).
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
But they can. They take player availability (injury, sitting out, suspension) into consideration. This isn’t a “hypothetical.” We’ve seen what FSU looks like without Jordan Travis. There’s tangible data there. They’re not remotely the same team
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:33 AM ^
Did FSU without Travis look worse than Texas losing to Oklahoma in Texas, or Alabama needing miracles to beat unranked teams?? Absolutely not!
Yes, those recent games are data points but they aren't worse than Texas and Alabama's lowpoints for the season. And then Texas has the head to head tiebreaker over Alabama. So imho, the answer is pretty damn clear based on the CFP's published selection criteria.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:32 AM ^
I’m taking it you haven’t seen FSU play without Travis. It’s definitely worse looking.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
We have also seen Bama with all of their players against Auburn and they were terrible so they are out. FSU against L'ville was more impressive than Bama against Auburn. Its not all about what happened only this week.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:33 AM ^
We’ve also seen FSU with all of their players, including Travis, against BC.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:39 AM ^
But I think it’s telling they put FSU at 4 last week even though they knew he was gone. I think the fact that fsu started at 4 is significant.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:43 AM ^
Wouldn’t be the first time they had a team at 4 and dropped them out following conference championship weekend despite #4 not losing a game. Hell, in 2014 they dropped TCU from 3 to 6 on conference championship weekend and they didn’t lose.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:57 AM ^
But TCU was also idle that year.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^
And dropped 3 spots despite not losing. Being idle isn’t relevant. Being #4 heading into conference championship week isn’t relevant. There is precedent for championship weekend resulting in significant shifts in the rankings despite teams not losing games.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
I don't deny that the committee could drop FSU, but claiming that "being idle" isn't relevant, and using the language of "not losing" to draw an equivalence between TCU not playing a 13th game and FSU winning a 13th game over a ranked team to win their conference is just sophistry.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
It’s not relevant. The point was made that they were #4 going into the week. TCU was #3. What did TCU do to drop 3 spots? The notion that they can’t drop because they were #4 heading in is silly.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
Did TCU win that weekend as FSU did? FSU risked their perfect season and won...that has to count for something.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^
TCU wasn’t given an opportunity to win by their conference, and were dropped 3 spots. Nothing changed for TCU and they were eliminated. The notion that FSU can’t drop by a combination of how they looked and how teams around them performed is silly. Doesn’t mean it will happen, to dismiss it as not a possibility is wrong.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
Because the 3rd string kid hasn’t had a chance to prove himself for all they know he could Wally pip the other guys.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:10 AM ^
He went 8/21 for 55 yards last night throwing almost exclusively short stuff…
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
Who knows what FSU will look like with the actual 2nd-string QB back and a month to practice. If Bama gets in, this is the Nebraska 97 phenom where history is getting you in, not your body of work on the season. Bama should have lost their second game a week ago. They had their 1-game playoff against Texas and they lost. Georgia was cheated out of 7 points, possible more, yesterday with an absolutely horrendous call. Bama did not distinguish themselves as categorically better than UGA, but it's a 1-team playoff. Tough luck to both. SEC watches on TV. Too bad you don't have any more good teams like in years past.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
They had their 1-game playoff against Texas and they lost
Your 1-game playoff being in week 2 instead of conference championship week against the season-long #1 team in the country is definitely a take.