Updated S&P: Michigan #2 overall, 55% to win @ OSU
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-michigan-advanced-statistic…
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
#25 offense, #1 defense. Doesn't account for the Speight injury, though, so ratchet back those OSU expectations a bit further (assuming he is actually out).
November 15th, 2016 at 10:39 AM ^
I was hoping to be able to play the disrespect card.
November 15th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^
I was thinking...maybe S&P doesn't adjust for home vs. road games??? Or maybe (and more seriously) the road game at Rutgers is such an outlier it skews their whole model for us? Maybe they need to add a "Rutgers control variable" to their model, that adjusts for teams that suck harder than gravity on Krypton...
November 15th, 2016 at 10:53 AM ^
They adjust for all that. Rutgers is #122, so Michigan is probably not feasting off that too much.
People are forgetting that Michigan has beaten the tar out of some good teams this year. Things are not as bad as they seemed on Saturday (though not as good as they seemed two Saturdays ago).
November 15th, 2016 at 11:57 AM ^
Still can't believe that PSU team we throttled is the favorite to win the East right now...
November 15th, 2016 at 12:21 PM ^
But if we're 55% favored to beat OSU, wouldn't we be favored to win the East right now?
If the probabilities were independent, then yes I would agree PSU would be favored. But the probability is not indepenendent. It's conditional since PSU needs us to lose.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:36 PM ^
Probably not, because we have a game before that against IU. And unless our win p-value is 1.0 there, it is the multiplicative of our win probabilities in those two games for us to win the East. So for instance, even if our win probability at OSU is .55, if our win probability against IU is .90 (for example), we only have a probabiltiy of winning both of .495, less than 50%. It gets more complicated if we add all the p-values for the other teams of winning out, etc., but PSU probably has a greater chance of doing so than us at this moment, given that they play MSU and Shitgers to end the year.
Oh, I'm sorry, did you want to talk about statistics, or were you just making chit-chat? :-)
November 15th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^
Let's assume PSU's P-value against Rutgers and MSU is .90 They need to win both those games, and have OSU beat us. .9 x .9 x .45 = 0.365, or Indiana beat us .9 x .9 x .1 = 0.081. Adding the two scenarios together, you get 0.446, which is less that our 0.495.
You can tweak those values a bit. I think our P-value against Indiana is more like .85, and Penn State's P-value against Rutgers is .95.
Michigan beats IU and OSU:
.85 x .55
Michigan loses to IU, beats OSU, and PSU loses 1 or 2:
+ .15 x .55 x (1-.855) = .539
Penn State wins out; OSU beats Michigan:
.95 x .9 x .45
Penn State wins out; IU beats Michigan
+ .95 x .9 x .15 = 0.513*
* And you should subtract the chance that both OSU and IU beat Michigan while PSU wins out, so you don't count that event twice. PSU's final chance is 0.513-0.058 = 0.455
We're favored, not Penn State. (But, it does amuse me that even if OSU wins out, there is still a 0.855 chance they won't go to the B1G Championship game.)
November 15th, 2016 at 12:46 PM ^
but at this point I'm just doing a gut-check comparison of which of these is more likely to happen
Michigan beats OSU
or
Michigan loses to OSU and Penn State beats Rutgers & MSU
The 2nd seems more likely to me and some of the fancystats agree
November 15th, 2016 at 1:27 PM ^
I am 100% sure they don't know.
November 15th, 2016 at 5:34 PM ^
M hit garbage time v. Rutgers with 11:57 remaining in the 2nd quarter, so most of that game doesn't register.
November 15th, 2016 at 11:04 AM ^
don't wanna be the negative guy, but fuck it I'm gonna do it anyways......
WE ARE GOING TO BEAT OSU, I DON'T GIVE A SHIT WHO THE STARTING QUARTERBACK IS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
November 15th, 2016 at 11:55 AM ^
out of sorts today? very good.
November 15th, 2016 at 1:50 PM ^
First, panic about the Iowa game is overblown. Our offense laid an egg; it happens. It doesn't mean the prior 9 games didn't happen, and it doesn't mean our offense will play just like the Iowa game the rest of the season.
Second, I'm seeing all kinds of ways Harbaugh can play mind games with uncertainty about Speight's condition. Let's say Speight could heal up in time for OSU. Hold him out against IU, and call plays that O'Korn can do well. OSU doesn't know which offense they will face, so they have to prepare for both. Or, they can let a coin flip determine whether their defensive game plan will be ready for their most important game.
Now let's say Speight is really out for the year. Harbaugh keeps saying the QB is a game time decision; O'Korn plays against IU, and OSU in is the exact same situation. Which offense? Prepare for both suboptimally, or take a coin flip?
Third, I'd bet a substantial amount he has plays that unleash the Jabrill Kraken which we have not yet seen.
November 15th, 2016 at 11:18 AM ^
Let's beat Indiana.
November 15th, 2016 at 11:24 AM ^
Yeah, if we don't beat Indiana, this is all a mooooo point...
November 15th, 2016 at 11:37 AM ^
totally irelephant
November 15th, 2016 at 11:53 AM ^
for all intensive porpoises
November 15th, 2016 at 11:57 AM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 12:05 PM ^
Is that a hypothesisopotamus?
November 15th, 2016 at 4:34 PM ^
So close to being a fantastic add on, but shouldn't it be "Intents and porpoises"?
November 15th, 2016 at 10:44 AM ^
2013, 2014, and 2015 Ohio State teams are all better than the team they have this year.
We will go in and win. I will be shocked if we don't.
November 15th, 2016 at 11:08 AM ^
OSU beats up a couple bad teams (yes, Nebraska is bad, especially without Armstrong, don't @ me it's true) and suddenly everyone thinks they are invincible again. Their score against Maryland was basically the same as ours. They still lost to a team we beat by 39 and barely beat Northwestern at home.
This is the worst Urban team in a few years. I fully expect our defense to hold them in check for the majority of the day and our playmakers to win us the game.
Taco and Butt are going to lock themselves into the first round of the draft with this game.
November 15th, 2016 at 11:33 AM ^
Iowa lost to Northwestern and we lost to Iowa.
November 15th, 2016 at 11:56 AM ^
so... what?
November 15th, 2016 at 3:55 PM ^
rarely work in sports. To many variables involved. Saying team X barely beat team Y as though that should give someone an idea of how Team X is going to do against Team Z is kind of pointless.
November 15th, 2016 at 7:10 PM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 12:01 PM ^
Well shit, Iowa lost to North Dakota State, and North Dakota State lost to South Dakota State. Thank God the Jackrabbits aren't coming to the Big House Saturday or we would get our asses handed to us.
November 15th, 2016 at 11:49 AM ^
It's more about matchups than who did what with common opponents. Right now it looks like OSU has more matchups with us that they can exploit than we do with them.
These are the weaknesses we knew we had since the summer . . . the linebackers on D, and the O-Line on O.
In truth, Harbaugh did a great job of mitigating them, but they never really went away.
Against OSU with Barrett and company on offense, and a talented and aggressive OSU D-Line, they are going to be hard to hide.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:02 PM ^
Our DL is in a different league than their OL, same with our secondary and their receivers.
Our OL will hold up fine against their DL - they aren't special.
November 15th, 2016 at 1:03 PM ^
it's the LBs (McCray and Gedeon) trying to cover a back out of the back field and OSU attacking UM horizontally on the edge.
November 15th, 2016 at 1:27 PM ^
I think Peppers will basically be asked to mark Samuel all day and Gedeon and McCray will stay in their lanes and play Barrett on keepers. They can handle Barrett and Peppers can run with Samuel, the D just has to rally to the ball and tackle well.
November 15th, 2016 at 2:47 PM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 5:55 PM ^
Ah yes, the fanbase known for their level-headed analysis and intimate football knowledge.
November 15th, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^
You're the one who wants to single cover a guy who is gonna rush for 1,000 yards and receive for another 1,000 yards with a linebacker who spends the majority of his snaps as a QB spy or blitzing.
November 16th, 2016 at 2:17 PM ^
A top 10 NFL draft pick "LB" who is taller, stronger, and faster than Samuel. Yes, that "LB". The "LB" who is also the best returner in the conference and would be the best RB in the conference if that was his full-time position. That "LB".
November 17th, 2016 at 3:01 AM ^
November 17th, 2016 at 3:17 AM ^
He was recruited as a corner and he doesn't play that anymore. Because he can't cover people effectively one on one. So then he was moved to safety and played that all last year, but as we established, he isn't very effective in pass coverage and he doesn't have good ball skills or the ability to bait QBs into turnovers. So now he plays hybrid linebacker to take advantage of his two discernible defensive skills: he's athletic as shit and hard to block. That's it.
But he doesn't hold up well at the point of attack if a lineman squares up on him, and if he's not blitzing then he's just playing a shallow spy zone and largely doing nothing. He's a good blitzer, but fine. Ok.
So go ahead and cover Samuel with Peppers all game. Make him play to his weaknesses against the best offensive player in the conference and remove him from the LOS so he can't play to his strengths. We're all for that.
I'm sure there's a reason Peppers has never before been asked to do anything like what you want him to do on Samuel.
November 15th, 2016 at 5:11 PM ^
Our OL did not even hold up against Iowa's DL.
November 15th, 2016 at 5:56 PM ^
It actually did okay, and OSU doesn't have a Jaleel Johnson.
November 15th, 2016 at 12:05 PM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 1:24 PM ^
OSU's defense looks to be the best they've fielded in many, many years. They have an all purpose receiver/RB named Samuel who looks to be pretty damn good too.
November 15th, 2016 at 11:58 AM ^
You'll be shocked if we don't win in Columbus for the first time since 2000 against a top 5 OSU team? What's in that koolaid? I want some
November 15th, 2016 at 12:29 PM ^
I have watched every single Michigan and OSU game this year. We are the better team. Our D-Line will do what Penn St did to them.
November 15th, 2016 at 1:48 PM ^
I don't know about that. OSU's strength match up well against Michigan's weakness. Beside Taco Charlton, there isn't a DL who can dominate one on one in pass rush.
November 15th, 2016 at 5:13 PM ^
That's homer talk.
November 15th, 2016 at 5:25 PM ^
November 15th, 2016 at 1:47 PM ^
still have a ton of NFL talent on the team. 3 of the OSU DBs will get drafted at 1st round if not the 2nd round at worst while Michigan's best DB will get drafted at 2nd round at best.
Offensively, OSU is more explosive than Michigan.
November 15th, 2016 at 2:35 PM ^