Tour de France - week 3 discussion

Submitted by jmblue on

So the Alps are behind us, and barring a miracle the maillot jaune is safely in Nibali's possession - but the race for the other two podium spots (and the white jersey) is just heating up.  Who will take second and third out of Valverde/Bardet/Pinot/Van Garderen/Peraud?  Meanwhile, can Sagan ever grab a stage win again?

 

stephenrjking

July 19th, 2014 at 7:40 PM ^

Yeah, this baby is over. Barring a crash-out or another Michael Rasmussen moment Nibali looks fantastic, and good for him. For those who are curious, the W/KG numbers that are closely watched to see if they are "human" or "superhuman" have not been mind blowing for Nibali. In fact, they're a smidgen less impressive than Froome and Wiggins the last two years. Yesterday's HC summit finish that Nibs won was ridden at a decidedly mortal 5.84 w/kg, well within the range that is believed to be achievable clean. The question remains about whether he could beat Contador/Froome/Wiggins at full strength; I think Wiggins would've been the only one close to him on the cobbles, and I think Nibali would've taken time from him in the mountains. And I think he could defend a 2-minute lead over Contador and Froome. It'd be close, but he's a worthy winner.

Sons of Louis Elbel

July 19th, 2014 at 9:47 PM ^

I think Tejay thinks that if he can stay w/in a minute or so of Bardet and Pinot, he'll overtake them in the TT.

Agreed that it'd take a major disaster for Nibali to lose at this point. I'm already thinking about next year: if Nibali, Froome, and Contador are all healthy, Tejay, Talansky, Bardet, and Pinot really starting to hit their primes, and Quintana there - that could be epic.

stephenrjking

July 19th, 2014 at 11:48 PM ^

You left the best part for the end: Quintana, in my mind, is currently next year's favorite. Of course, the route and his condition and other factors may change this, but he pushed Froome hard last year and annihilated the field at the Giro this year. I suspect Contador has won his last Tour. He's not young anymore and while still a crafty rider and quality climber he can't dominate the way he used to. There are a number of possible reasons for this, of course, but the upshot is that he is a mid-level time trialist instead of the guy that used to beat Cancellara. I would expect Froome to be back to his old form, and Wiggins will be sucking wheels for someone like the Argyle boys as well. Next year to me looks like Nibali defending as an underdog with Froome and Quintana shooting it out; time trial miles will be a huge factor. A mountain TT (haven't been many lately) would be magnificent.

BlueHenBlue

July 20th, 2014 at 9:31 AM ^

Contador may be past his prime, but he's still the most exciting rider out there, and probably one of the most electric athletes in the world. I was looking forward to his attacks on every mountain stage this year, so his abandon took something out of the Tour this year for me. He was in top form this year and I think he can still pull a Tour win over the next few years.

But with the majors out (Froome, Contador, Cavendish) and Nibali seemingly have locked this, it's still fun to watch since the domestiques are now free to do stage hunt.

snarling wolverine

July 20th, 2014 at 3:00 PM ^

The battle for 2nd and 3rd is still out there as well.  I'm curious to see what happens in the Pyrenees.  TJVG is probably the best time-trialer of the group there (other than perhaps Peraud, who has more ground to catch up), so the others are probably going to need to put time into him beforehand.  Should be fun to watch.

 

 

Canadian

July 20th, 2014 at 1:07 AM ^

Wish I could partake in these threads as I love watching the Tour but seeing as I'm working I have DVR'd every day. Have been watching since the 2003 (armstrong's 5th) tour when I was 11 years old.

FLwolvfan22

July 20th, 2014 at 11:25 AM ^

He beat contador, Nibali, and Froome in the Dauphine and was primed to to do very well in this years tour before hiis crashes. Head to head he can beat Nibali. Crashes happen but as far as American cycling goes we've got two guy s (Van Garderen, Talansky) who are potential tour winners and especially Talansky because he has the right attitude. 3 years ago he was in the US with no sponsorship driving himself to races with no support. Frome to me is not on the level of the level of the super elite tour winners. After watching following cycling for the last 30 years he seems more like a annual number 2 or 3 finisher who made a lucky breakthrough.

I'm still curious if another young American Phinney can climb or if he's just a super domestique type guy. He was supposed to rid his first tour this year before crashing. He's an amazing time trialist so he'll at least be winning time trial stages in future tours.

stephenrjking

July 20th, 2014 at 5:00 PM ^

Phinney is not and never will be much of a climber. He can TT and he can drive in the flats; people are waiting to see if he can turn into a cobbles threat after some early promise. I'm not sure if Talansky or TVG will ever win the Tour. That's not to knock them, just to recognize that it's really hard to do. Not every guy with the potential to win ever does it; even guys like Andy Schleck flame out (his only "win" came as a result of a Contador DQ; he has never won a grand tour on the road). Now, it is possible that they may win a Grand Tour somewhere else, and I could be wrong and they could take a Tour. But as of now I would take odds against it. But things can be hard to predict. In 2011 Alberto Contador produced one of the most dominant performances I have ever seen in crushing the field at the Giro, and looked set to become the best GT rider ever. Then he ran out of gas, and Cadel Evans and Andy Schleck put on one of the great duels of all time, and... None of them have ever come close to winning the Tour since (Contador did snatch a Vuelta later). So the next five years may be the Froome/Nibali/Quintana show, or it may be something completely different.

FLwolvfan22

July 20th, 2014 at 10:55 PM ^

Van Garderen, meh..not so much. Talansky has that nasty attitude and the attacking Contador on the last day of the Dauphnine really showed me something, he's got the lungs to climb so we will see. The schleck brothers,reminded me of  Tyler Hamilton, they were supermen during the doping era, after not so much.

By the way, does anyone else but me marvel at the thought that Greg Lemond STILL has the fastest TdF time trial from 1989? And that was a dope free guy, amazing  pure athletic ability. if in his prime today he could win 7 tours.

FLwolvfan22

July 20th, 2014 at 11:21 PM ^

That win by Evans was a great tour win, very similar to Stephen Roche in 87. A very talented all around rider, not a climber, not a pure time trialer and not the strongest team but a rider just tough enough to win. By the way Roche has come out and said he believes Lance Armstrongs tour victories should stand and I agree 100%. As he says the sport has had doping for decades.

Quintana I'm looking frorward to seeing next year. The tour organizers will certainly adjust for him (It's the French, go figure) and they'll put in long flat time trials and downhill finishes on mountain stages to go against his domiant ability. The tour is looking and due for a dominant multi year winners. We've done the cycle of Froome and Evans which always happen for a few years between the dominant multi year winners. Who will be the next multi year winner that's what I'm looking for.

 

snarling wolverine

July 21st, 2014 at 1:21 AM ^

If you want to get doping out of the sport (or at least make it less prevalent) you can't rehabilitate Armstrong.  The fact that riders now can't match Armstrong's wattage output suggests that cycling is, in fact, getting cleaner.

The Tour got it right by awarding those titles to no one.  It didn't pass the buck and give it to the runners-up.  It acknowledged that the whole era was tainted.  No reason to revist that decision.

Now, I'd love to see Major League Baseball do the same for the steroid era.

 

 

 

 

 

jmblue

July 21st, 2014 at 1:07 PM ^

The tour organizers will certainly adjust for him (It's the French, go figure) and they'll put in long flat time trials and downhill finishes on mountain stages to go against his domiant ability.

That would be going against Pinot and Bardet's strengths as well. The Tour changes things up a bit every year, but that doesn't mean it's due to some anti-(name of rider) conspiracy.

OuldSod

July 22nd, 2014 at 2:51 PM ^

Agreed. Also, towns and ski resorts bid millions of dollars to host the start and end of each stage. This affects the route more than any factor aside from clockwise/counterclockwise in alternate years and a few historical considerations. Yes, they need summit finishes because they increase tv ratings, but the summits bid dollars for the privilege.

jmblue

July 22nd, 2014 at 5:48 PM ^

Quite a stage today - I'm surprised at how much the "easiest" day of Pyrenean climbing shook up the field.  I had thought Van Garderen was the most likely of the non-Nibali group to make the podium but that's looking remote now.  OTOH, someone else could well crack the next two days.  Tomorrow's stage looks brutal. 

On another note, I always love the camerawork in the Tour.  I've never been to the Pyrenees but they look gorgeous.

 

snarling wolverine

July 22nd, 2014 at 6:07 PM ^

Fun stage to watch today.  Always awesome to see a breakaway succeed. 

A reminder - there is a new 30 for 30, "Slaying the Badger," tonight at 8:00 EDT on the rivalry between LeMond and Hinault in the '80s.