TCU Overview
I know this will get broken down in much finer and insightful detail in the weeks ahead, but I don't know much about TCU's team other than "Duggan Good". So here are some insights on what they are good at, what they're not, and how UM stacks up. (Note: You can't insert tables in board posts, so I've tried to use alignment to show TCU vs UM.)
TCU UM
Overall Rating 24.5 (#6) 33.5 (#2)
Offense 44.1 (#6) 39.1 (#18)
Defense 20.6 (#33) 7.3 (#4)
Special Teams 1.1 (#31) 1.7 (#6)
FEI Rankings (If you are not intuitively familiar with their statistical categories, I'd recommend hitting the link for a primer. I'll try to put the definitions in a board post below.)
TCU UM
FEI 0.87 (#10) 1.25 (#2)
OFEI 1.17 (#12) 1.38 (#9)
DFEI 0.60 (#24) 1.08 (#4)
NDE 1.03 (#18) 2.26 (#3)
ELS 1.32 (#26) 1.28 (#30)
GLS 4.46 (#13) 3.59 (#41)
ALS 8.48 (#7) 6.96 (#41)
TCU UM
OFEI 1.17 (#12) 1.38 (#9)
ODE 0.86 (#16) 1.18 (#8)
OTD 0.391 (#16) 0.409 (#12)
OVD 0.478 (#19) 0.520 (#11)
OFD 0.754 (#29) 0.819 (#9)
OBD 0.116 (#59) 0.055 (#6)
OTO 0.051 (#6) 0.047 (#2)
TCU UM
DFEI 0.60 (#24) 1.08 (#4)
DDE 0.17 (#42) 1.08 (#2)
DTD 0.246 (#43) 0.105 (#2)
DVD 0.312 (#29) 0.218 (#4)
DFD 0.710 (#67) 0.573 (#6)
DBD 0.138 (#59) 0.177 (#13)
DTO 0.109 (#72) 0.097 (#93)
Summary
Based on everything above, my key takeaways are:
- Overall broad strokes indicate that Michigan is the better, more complete team. This aligns with the initial betting lines favoring Michigan.
- On offense, both teams are good at moving the ball forward, and avoiding bad drives. Neither team turns it over (or forces turnovers) much, though Michigan is better at avoiding negative drives.
- On defense, UM has a pretty clear edge. The most interesting stat to me is TCU allowing 71% of opponent drives that gain at least 1 first down.
December 6th, 2022 at 3:57 PM ^
Here are the FEI definitions:
Overall Stats:
- Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings (FEI) are opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.
- Offense ratings (OFEI) and defense ratings (DFEI) are opponent-adjusted drive efficiency data representing the per-drive scoring advantage a team unit would be expected to have against an average opponent unit.
- Net drive efficiency (NDE) is the sum of offensive drive efficiency and defensive drive efficiency data representing scoring value earned by offense and defense units per drive.
- Strength of schedule ratings represent the expected number of losses an elite team two standard deviations better than average would have against each team's schedule to date (ELS), the expected number of losses a good team one standard deviation above average would have against the schedule to date (GLS), and the expected number of losses an average team would have against the schedule to date (ALS).
Offensive Stats:
- Offensive drive efficiency (ODE) is scoring value gained or lost per offensive drive.
- Touchdown rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown.
- Value drive rate (OVD) is the percentage of offensive drives that conclude with a drive end value greater than the drive start value based on field position.
- First down rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that earn at least one first down.
- Busted drive rate (OBD) is the percentage of offensive drives that gain zero or negative yards.
- Turnover rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that end with an interception or fumble.
Defensive Stats:
- Defensive drive efficiency (DDE) is scoring value gained or lost per opponent offensive drive.
- Touchdown rate (DTD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown.
- Value drive rate (DVD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that conclude with a drive end value greater than the drive start value based on field position.
- First down rate (DFD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that earn at least one first down.
- Busted drive rate (DBD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that gain zero or negative yards.
- Turnover rate (DTO) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that end with an interception or fumble.
December 6th, 2022 at 3:59 PM ^
I think Michigan's defensive front will wreck TCUs offensive line. Kansas State had Duggan running all day, and while I like what he did...it wasnt enough to make up for the poor line play.
December 6th, 2022 at 4:04 PM ^
Duggan is good and his mobility will give us some problems, especially at the LB level, which I view as the weakest aspect of our defense. That said, I think that their OL is going to have major issues dealing with the size / strength of Mazi, Morris, Okie, et al. Looking at all of the matchups in the game, this looks like the biggest advantage in either team's favor.
December 6th, 2022 at 4:07 PM ^
I think it depends if the game-plan accounts for his mobility, which after watching the KSU game, I don't know how it couldn't.
Michigan shut down Clifford pretty well. Spying the QB should be a pretty simple task for a LB. Need athleticism to match him, but it's not reading misdirection, blocks, filling the correct gap, etc.
December 6th, 2022 at 4:16 PM ^
He's not just mobile, he's an additional running back.
December 6th, 2022 at 4:14 PM ^
If TCU is down by 3TDs in the 4th quarter, then Duggan will scramble, scratch and claw like he did against KS State.
Totally agree that this would be a much tougher task against that stout Michigan defense. Assuming Mike Morris is close to 100%, there's going to be a very good pass rush to Duggan who will either be sacked or flushed from the pocket often.
December 6th, 2022 at 4:21 PM ^
If officials call holding this day it will be advantageous to Michigan.
December 6th, 2022 at 4:23 PM ^
I think the DL will boa constrictor them all day because its going to be the only way to contain Duggan. Both Barrett and Colson have the athleticism to spy him effectively, but they have other responsibilities in the defense. But the DL has been good at containment, for the most part, all season.
As for the biggest advantage for either team, I'll say Michigan's OL run blocking will be that advantage. The B12 simply does not see power rush games like this. And I'll invite them to bring 7-8 up all day, because Michigan isn't a downfield passing team.
December 6th, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^
I bet DJ Turner will get the assignment to cover Quentin Johnson who is considered to be the top WR in '23 draft. He's similar size as Marvin Harrison Jr at 6'4" 215, but he's not quite as good at release. I expect Michigan to try to press him to get him off the line.
December 6th, 2022 at 6:26 PM ^
December 6th, 2022 at 6:45 PM ^
Shea Patterson is gonna put him on lock for sure
December 6th, 2022 at 4:50 PM ^
Good stuff.
The one factor that isn't collected in these stats due to recency is the loss of Corum and the emergence of a downfield passing game at UM. And with TCU Quentin Johnston was hurt for a lot of the year but is apparently getting healthy.
My guess is offensively the teams are similar overall in terms of scoring potential but defensively UM is just better overall and has more tricks up their sleeves.
Should be a good, competitive game.
December 6th, 2022 at 4:55 PM ^
Michigan is the best second half team in the country. No one has adjusted better than they have.
TCU is the king of second half comebacks and winning down at the wire.
Something has got to give.
My only prediction is we're probably going to have a snoozer of a first half, and then a full-on cardiac arrest, quadruple bypass roller coaster ride in the second half. Should make for an overall extremely fun game to watch.
December 6th, 2022 at 5:10 PM ^
Michigan vs TCU Hype / 2022 Highlights
December 6th, 2022 at 5:24 PM ^
KSU grad/fan chiming in. Watched both KSU games against TCU. If UM plays a “normal” game they should win without much issue.
That is my expert analysis. If anyone has any questions, let me know.
Go Cats/Blue