Softball: Mid-Season Update
Believe it or not, the Wolverines are half-way through their 2024 schedule.
Their first home game is scheduled for Wednesday, against Oakland. But unless they find a new stadium (no word yet on how the Las Vegas mayor feels about this), that will be postponed due to cold and wind.
Then the Big Ten season begins. The last season before the Pac 12 remnants invade and curse their respective universities for that absurdity.
This weekend, they played in the Cardinal (Louisville, not Stanford) Invitational. Four games, four runs scored in each game.
They won the opener yesterday over South Dakota (RPI of 169 last season), 4-3, on a four-run rally in the bottom of the seventh inning.
Then they played the host, Louisville (37) and lost in five innings, 12-4.
Today, they beat Dartmouth (274), 4-2, then beat Illinois (90), 4-1. Neither game counts in the Big Ten standings.
Their record stands at 16-11. As I've mentioned before, this is a much easier schedule than in past years. They will likely have to win the Big Ten to receive an NCAA bid.
They are 2-5 against teams ranked in the top 50 last season. This includes two wins (one a mercy-rule win) over 10th-ranked (in the latest national poll) Florida, which was 21-3 headed into the weekend. They've been outscored, 35-5, in the five losses.
There is no current Big Ten team in the top 25. The three Pac-12 schools coming in (USC does not have a team) are all ranked.
The Wolverine lineup is fairly set for the season now.
Leadoff - Ellie Sieler, Jr., LF (755 OPS), then Indiana Langford, So., 2B (648), Maddie Erickson, So., 3B (938), Keke Tholl, Sr., C/1B (610), Lilly Vallimont, rsFr., 1B/C (713), Jenissa Conway, Fr., CF (920), Ella Stephenson, Fr., RF (431), Erin Hoehn, Fr., DP/P (676), Ella McVey, Jr., SS (585).
Erickson is a good contact hitter with power. Conway is an all-or-nothing slugger. They definitely lead the offense and each have a team-leading four home runs and ten extra-base hits (the rest of the team has combined for six home runs and 21 extra-base hits).
Going into the weekend, Michigan ranked 206th in slugging percentage and 236th in on-base percentage in the country. On an encouraging note, they've dropped into a tie for 14th in the country in sacrifice bunts.
Lauren Derkowski (Jr.) continues to lead the pitching staff (82 strikeouts, 74 innings, 1.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). Hoehn has taken over as the primary second starter (43 K, 50.1 IP, 2.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) while Jessica LeBeau (transfer Senior) seems to be struggling with her control and is no longer in key situations (37 K, 36.1 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.10 WHIP).
The 2.14 team era was 36th in the country entering the weekend.
I am bracing for a rocky big ten road. They continue to struggle to hit and the pitching seems a little up and down this year. I hope to be pleasantly surprised with the big ten record.
I haven't seen the team play, but based on the stats I'd say that Conway has the potential to be really good. As a freshman, she already has power and speed (3 triples, 4 stolen bases) and draws a lot of walks. Her only negative is that she strikes out a lot, but she should strike out less as she gets more used to college pitching. Vallimont isn't as far along, but she already walks more than she strikes out and her power should improve as she gains experience and adds muscle.
Conway has all the tools to be a star. Really fast, great arm, good power, terrific defense. Just needs to be a bit more consistent and patient at the plate. I would move her to 3rd or 4th in the lineup. Easily our most talented position player.
Thanks for the update, much appreciated.
I have always loved U-M Softball, Tholl seems to be struggling taking over for a legend like Hutch, not an easy thing to do.
I hate to bring it up but how long does Tholl get to show she can bring back the program to top ten level? If she doesn't start to get the program back on the upswing by next year I feel like that should be it for her and I would try to get the Duke coach, she played at U-M for Hutch I believe.
Would love some input by folks with more knowledge on the subject.
March 17th, 2024 at 10:24 PM ^
It's always hard to follow a legend and that's something that not many coaches would like to take this challenge.
March 17th, 2024 at 10:26 PM ^
It didn't help that the program was on the way down as Hutch left. I'm terrified any chance they had of bringing Marissa Young back home is gone, she's built Duke from scratch into a top ten team in a few short years. Unless she really has an affinity for Michigan, can't see why she would want to come and turn it around when Duke has all the advantages you could want in a sport like softball with warmer weather, closer access to most of the high level talent, and can still sell a really good education at Duke if any of the recruits care about life after softball.
I am not feeling it with Tholl. Hutch gets to pick her successor but it doesn't appear to be working out.
Seriously? She's halfway through her second season.
It's not working out so far, but Tholl continues to recruit well. That buys her another year and she has some pitching coming in. The question is whether she can adapt to the modern game. Letting Conway be herself and giving all the young players some time to adjust is a good sign. Hutch had a shorter leash. That and poor baserunning were my two real criticisms of her - Hutch's record speaks for itself.
March 17th, 2024 at 11:22 PM ^
I'm not sold that they recruit all that well, either that or they have a serious evaluation/development issue. The upperclassmen aren't giving much, with only one top 100 girl in the senior class and an underwhelming junior haul despite solid recruiting rankings.
Class of 2021 (Juniors)
Annabelle Widra (8th)- Auburn
Lauren Derkowski (16th) - Solid pitcher.
Emerson Aiken (26th)- Not much.
Ella McVey- (44th)- Decent
Ellie Sieler- (101st)- Decent
Class of 2020 (Seniors)
KeKe Tholl - Decent.
Kaylee Rodriguez - Medical things.
Ryleigh Carricaburu- Nothing
Sierra Kersten (94th)- Now at Liberty
Jessica LeBeau- Transfer in from Ohio, meh.
Class of 2019 had the fifth ranked class and gave us...
Chandler Dennis (16th) - Went to Georgia Tech and was meh.
Julia Jimenez (21st)- Went to Utah and was really good.
Lexi Voss (32nd)- Didn't do much.
Lauren Esman- (51st)- Went to Bama and was meh.
Audrey LeClair (58th)- Decent player.
Jessica Garmen- Nothing.
They have been getting talent for years and continue to not develop it, so I really find it hard to care that the girls she brings in have alright recruiting rankings. The current sophomore class was ranked sixth in the country and we have a decent Indy Langford, a hopefully emerging Lilly, and a good Maddie Erickson. Feels like the roster has a few good pieces and that's about it. Couple slightly better than average pitchers, and three position players that will be/are good (Erickson, Vallimont, Conway), and then Ella McVey and Ellie Sieler being okay.
Seems like this makes Tholl the Ryan Day of softball: "They have been getting talent for years and not developing it."
Except that Day wins more.
Seems like a very young team. If given time to develop over the rest of this season, add a few more players through recruiting and the portal, next year could start to be interesting again. I hope so, because it was really fun watching Michigan play when Hutch had it really rolling.
Severe lack of getting and stranding runners
The 2.14 team era was 36th in the country
I think we should stop making fun of soccer for being low-scoring.
March 17th, 2024 at 10:38 PM ^
In terms of getting Marissa Young from Duke... it doesn't make sense. The ACC is simply on a higher tier than the Big Ten, where most teams cannot play home games until the end of March.
Here's the RPI of Big Ten teams going into the weekend's games:
Penn State 32, Indiana 40, Illinois 44, Minnesota 48, Ohio State 53, Northwestern 63, Nebraska 71, Rutgers 87, Purdue 89, Michigan 98, Michigan State 101, Wisconsin 102, Maryland 120, Iowa 130.
Duke is at 23 and is third in the ACC. Last year, Michigan was 49th in RPI and missed the tournament, likely second four out. The NCAA uses RPI as its first measure and at-large teams generally need to be in the low 40s to get a bid.
One sad note for the Big Ten: Jordy Bahl, who was World Series MVP for Oklahoma and then transferred to Nebraska (shocking the hell out of the entire sport), was injured in her first game and will miss the entire season (torn ACL).
Do they actually cancel games for cold at this level? Maybe because it's a non-con against Oakland so it's easier to be rescheduled but when I played college baseball (In Michigan) we never had a cancellation for cold/wind that I can remember. Field conditions was always the biggest concern this time of year as any level of rain turned the ground very sloppy.
Played in many games that were lightly snowing, sleeting or a couple times we played on a turf field where they had shoveled snow off the field just onto the other side of the fence.
Part of my experience is also that we were a smaller school so we weren't traveling to warm climates in February to get games in other than a trip over spring break. This meant we weren't playing games until closer to the end of February and Conference tournament happened around May 1 so our schedule was a lot more constricted than Big Ten schedules (Michigan softball played their first game February 9 and conference tournament is May 8).
Yes, there's even a Big Ten rule that says that the game may not be started unless the "RealFeel" index on Accuweather is at least 28 degrees F. Not sure if it applies to non-conference games, but as you point out Oakland is so close that it wouldn't be too much of a burden to re-schedule if necessary.
March 18th, 2024 at 11:12 AM ^
I can understand that rule. Those games we used to play were miserable. Plus generally it is above that threshold around here this time of year. I was just surprised that cold/wind absent precipitation was enough to cancel games.
Given the forecast and the closeness of Oakland, they moved the home opener up a day.
Home runs from Conway and fellow freshman Ava Costales (making her third start of the season) led the Wolverines to a 2-0 victory. Derkowski threw a three-hitter and struck out seven.
For last week's performances, Conway was named Big Ten freshman of the week.
Big Ten starts this weekend.