BCS standings released and a couple notes on the standings:
- Fla / Ala still on track for "OMG Greatest Game of All Time" in SEC championship, and it's looking more and more like it will be an elimination game. SEC teams are now 1 & 3 instead of 1 & 2, so the liklihood of the SEC championship rematch in the BCS championship is significantly reduced. Plus there seems to be a little "SEC backlash" in the main stream media as Tebow continues to win but in uninspiring fashion, and Ala still doesn't have the marquee offensive numbers compliment their tremendous D. This will likely result in pollsters dropping the SEC championship loser down in the polls to a point where they'd be unable to make up the ground in BCS points from computers.
- USC and Oregon was the elimination game many suspected, but now voters are put in the uneviable position of having to possibly vote a 1-loss Oregon team over an undefeated Boise St team who handily defeated Oregon. I think with the thrashing Oregon gave 'SC, you can eliminate USC from a at-large BCS bid barring other BCS chaos.
- Iowa and (surprise) Cincinnati now stand ready to pounce given a Texas, Iowa, or (pre-SEC championship game) Fla/Ala slip up. I thought Cincy was all but dead for BCS championship dreams a week ago, but the voters & computers have boosted Cincy right back into the picture. Scary thing for Iowa-- Cincy's strength of schedule is only going to get better as we wind up the season (UConn, WVa, Ill, Pitt) while Iowa's is likely to go down as a win against Ohio St will push the Buckeye's down and a possible win by us in The Game will knock OSU further. While probably not in the eyes of voters, Cincy might actually jump Iowa in computer ranking in the next couple of weeks. BRI-AN KEL-LY! Clap clap, clap-clap-clap!
- The at-large BCS race is starting to clear up (remember, 10 slots, 6 auto's, 4 at-large):
-- Almost guaranteed at-large spots: Ala/Fla loser, Penn St if they win out, ND if they win out (ND will likely get boosts in voter polls by winning out enough to help their computer ranking, get them in the Top 12, and maybe the Top 8 to auto-qualify them)
-- TCU and Boise are looking strong. One will definately get in provided both end up undefeated, and now I think both will get with a stumble by ND/Penn St/both.
-- tOSU probably controls their destiny. Win out against Penn St, Iowa, UM and they're in the BCS and deny Iowa, Penn St a chance at an at-large bid.
-- Little to no chance: LSU (conference limited barring upset this week), USC (unless Oregon somehow gets in the BCS championship, then a Rose Bowl is likely for a 2-loss USC), Pitt (they'll lose more), Utah (conference limited), Houston (mid-major limited), Miami (ACC isn't getting two teams this year)
BIG GAMES FOR BCS THIS WEEK:
- UConn @ Cincy: Can UConn pull the upset and kill Cincy's nat'l title hopes (while opening doors for Pitt, WVa to steal a BCS bid)?
- NW @ Iowa: Iowa must keep winning, although margin doesn't seem necessary as they've taken on the media mantle of "cardiac kids" for the season, so any close victories will be evidence of Ferentz "just doing what it takes to win", including having Stanzi throw 5-6 picks to keep it interesting
- Navy @ ND: Navy has now proven to be a thorn in big teams' sides, and has won at ND in the Weis era, so could ND be caught looking ahead to a HUGE game with Pitt the next week?
- Oregon @ Stanford: Oregon must continue winning as one stumble kills their BCS championship hopes (but they're likely still in the Rose Bowl as USC has two conference losses right now to Oregon's zero)
- LSU @ Alabama: This is LSU's one shot at getting into the BCS picture. Alabama has looked vulnerable and this is their one likely stumble game before Auburn.
- OSU @ Penn St: Elimination game. Simple as that. (Begin hesitant pennant waving) Go Penn St???