Queston for Bracketologists...
Okay, so I'm looking at the remaining basketball schedule and we have: Minn, Iowa, Purdue, Wiscy, Minn again. Our current conference record is 6-7. After scalping Duke, the common theory on this site (and others) was that if we finished with a 9-9 record we should be in the tourney. So, if we beat Minny twice and Iowa, do people here think we're in? Or do we need another win or two in the Big 10 tourney? Or, realistically, do we need to beat Wiscy to finish 10-8 in conference to get in? Obviously, it depends on what other bubble teams do, etc. etc., but I'm just looking for people more knowledgable than myself to offer up guesses and opinions. I know the game of basketball backwards and forwards, but bracketology is not my strong point. Thanks!
February 17th, 2009 at 10:19 AM ^
...on outside factors.
When you cut it as close as this team will (hopefully) by going 9-9, you are at the mercy of how the other bubble teams do in the end, and how many at-large teams come from mid-majors because the power team didn't win its tournament, etc.
February 17th, 2009 at 10:36 AM ^
9-9 with Iowa being a win (we cannot lose that game, as that might count as a "bad loss") plus at least one win in the conference tourney. Losing in the first round of your conference tourney is bad if you're on the bubble, especially if you're playing a team that's nowhere close to the bubble. Realistically, you can't lose to Northwestern, Iowa, or Indiana this year as your last impression on the committee and still expect to get in with a .500 regular season conference record.
I think if we go 9-9 and lose in the first round we will be one of the last cuts from the bracket. I guess it's possible that we make it, root for Butler, Gonzaga, and others that are likely to get an autobid in their conference tourneys so they don't take at-large spots.
February 17th, 2009 at 10:44 AM ^
the best and prepare for the worst.
February 17th, 2009 at 10:44 AM ^
I think they get in if they end 9-9 in league play. Well, I should qunatify that, I believe they'll get in, so long as they follow that up with at least one win in the Big 10 tourney.
A 9-9 mark will give them an easy first round game against either Iowa or IU....a win is not impressive, but a loss would destroy them.
Win that game, lose in the quarters and you're looking at a team with 10 total Big 10 wins. They'll be 6-5 in their last 11 games. With the good looking RPI, great SOS and those two big OOC scalps, I would be stunned if they missed out.
Some variables to consider:
If they go 3-2 to close the regular season, which games are wins? Say they win their next three, but then lose those last two closing at Wisco and at Minny.....ugh, a two game losing streak to close the season is not good. They certainly could not afford a first roung Big 10 tourney ouster and expect a bid with three straight losses to close the season.
So, I think a 9-9 record puts the bid in their grasp, so long as they get 1 win in the Big 10 tourney.
February 17th, 2009 at 11:20 AM ^
Good analysis. I was hoping you'd comment, I've been reading your bubble news posts. Good stuff.
February 17th, 2009 at 11:03 AM ^
in the tourny. I likely see it as split Minn, beat Wisc and and Iowa, lose Pudue.
However, if they go 4-1, meaning they beat Purdue or double up Minn, then I think they can blow the tourny game and still have a chance. They'll be "hot" having won 2 of 3 from top conference teams.
February 17th, 2009 at 12:39 PM ^
Really? Beating Purdue at home (presumably on a 3 game winning streak) is far more likely than beating Wisconsin on the road with all their interchangable 6'10" white dudes. Just my opinion though.
February 17th, 2009 at 1:39 PM ^
I agree. Wisconsin rarely loses at home, and they've been rolling recently. Purdue at home, with an ailing Robbie Hummel, is much more beatable
February 17th, 2009 at 1:52 PM ^
we blew the Wisc game the first time around, and Purdue just killed us. I hope you're right though, as Purdue, ailing or not, would be worth more as a win...
February 17th, 2009 at 3:37 PM ^
We were beating Purdue by a basket before Manny got tossed for his elbow. I don't think we would have won that game even with Manny, but it almost definitely would have remained close. If we beat Minnesota and Iowa, we'll have three days rest going into that Purdue game. We'll be rolling, we'll be rested, and we'll get them at home. Of course, if we lose either of those two games, that changes everything.
February 17th, 2009 at 11:42 AM ^
unfortunately BC (one of those bubble teams) upset Duke a few days ago, which definitely makes things harder for us
February 17th, 2009 at 12:32 PM ^
The next few games are sorta like a mini-tournament for UM. They are going to have to pull at least one upset to get to the tournament. I see beating Wisky, Minny at Minny, or Purdue as an upset. The only games that UM should be either favored or even are Minny at home and Iowa.
From down here in FL, and UM having such terrible years that they don't make national TV much, I haven't paid a lot of attention to other Big Ten teams, but if Minny still plays in their little shithole with the elevated floor, I don't see UM having a prayer.
Sadly, I think that Wisky is the worst possible matchup for UM, because their system is similar but a lot more patient, their players have more experience in the system, and they have too many big guys who are allowed to shove players around (in the Big Ten, this is still called "hand-checking") without being called for a foul.
To me, that leaves Purdue as the bubble game. Purdue was picked as a preseason top ten in at least one magazine; there must have been a reason.
So, either they go 2-3 and have to win at least two tournament games, or they have to upset someone to go 3-2 and win one tournament game.
And really, that is fair. It was the upsets of Duke and UCLA that raised our expectations in the first place.
Is there anyone here who wouldn't have been happy with a preseason prediction of 18 or so wins and an NIT berth after what we went through last season?
Basically, the tournament starts now for UM. Not the standard single-elimination format, but they definitely should be seeing every game from here on out as a tournament game.
February 17th, 2009 at 12:38 PM ^
Basically, the tournament starts now for UM. Not the standard single-elimination format, but they definitely should be seeing every game from here on out as a tournament game.
Maybe you should drop the tournament analogy, chief. Seeing how the rest of your post describes something that is not like a tournament in any way...