Prospectus of NCAA Football into the Commercial Market Future
Brian’s latest article, “Unverified Voracity Has More Bills Than A Platypus Convention” in which he references Dan Murphy’s story, “NCAA, Congress Have Labyrinth of Options, but NIL Clock is Ticking” caused me to ponder the future of NCAA football within a purely commercial market. Despite the fact that most universities contend that it is an amateur sport comprised of “student athletes”, nobody with a shred of cognitive ability believes that any longer.
I have a radical outlook about where NCAA football is headed. Ever since bowl game participation expanded in the early 70's, the sport has morphed into a quasi-NFL farm league. Little by little, they have sought and secured more money for the universities and conferences. Today, the sport bears little resemblance to what I remember in the 60's; and it will only continue, because, well, $$$.
What I foresee happening is that the compensation of players will happen, and will escalate in its scope, driven by market pressures surrounding individual players and programs. As that occurs, there will be the realization that the FBS must reorganize. Why? The wealthy programs recognize the money to be made and the need to compete more evenly with each other (e.g. Texas doesn’t want to fall off and watch OU and TA&M hoard all of the high level talent in their state, as the high demand athletes seek highest returns from the best programs; and the same holds true with other big programs in other regions). Conversely, the poorer programs (e.g. Maryland, Missouri, NC State, etc.) realize that they have no opportunity to compete with the blueblood programs within their current conferences, much as the Group of Five schools see now with regards to the CFP. They will be more than happy to be on a more level playing field amongst themselves.
The historic conferences will become things of the past, and go the way of the Southwest, Big 8, Southern, Pacific Coast, etc. Powerful programs with high market value will coalesce into a purely commercial enterprise, while lower tiered programs remain as academic sports, as the FCS is now. The days where teams like Oklahoma destroy Kansas, or Bama crushes Vandy, or Ohio State embarrasses Rutgers will be gone. I can see the top 20 or 24 power programs forming four regional divisions and competing much like the NFL, sans ratings or polls. Meanwhile, the remaining programs from the old Power Five conferences realign, prioritize their conference championships, and maybe have a few bowl exhibition games (as they used to be). The glut of weaker programs that make up more than half of the current FBS will be relegated back to the FCS.
Do I wish for the old days of NCAA football? Of course, but the Rubicon was already crossed a long time ago and there is no turning back now. The universities have brought this upon themselves with their insatiable avarice, while hypocritically restricting the athletes that they rely upon. The new age of consumerism, immediate gratification, and societal disregard for such old-fashioned concepts as amateurism, tradition or customs will escalate this process. Let them eat cake. Vive la révolution!
December 20th, 2020 at 9:07 PM ^
My eyes glaze over.
December 20th, 2020 at 11:22 PM ^
Yeah, if someone could summarize this in the form of a haiku, that would be appreciated.
December 21st, 2020 at 12:19 AM ^
College football changed.
"Not like it was in my day,"
Old man yells at cloud.
December 21st, 2020 at 7:44 AM ^
+1, but too brief. Let's try 9 lines in iambic pentameter.
December 20th, 2020 at 9:12 PM ^
I do wonder if 20-24 programs could actually come to this realization. My feeling is that there are people at every program -- including the Purdue's of the world (just to pick one) -- who harbor fantasies of dominance in football. As such, it will be hard to weed them out.
December 21st, 2020 at 1:33 PM ^
Money will weed them out---money is all that matters--higher education be damned
December 20th, 2020 at 9:27 PM ^
There is only modest overlap between the top schools in football and basketball, but a lot of money in both. I think that decreases the likelihood of blowing up the conferences completely in the way you describe. Then again, we have Nebraska and Rutgers in the B1G now (and the latter wasn't even added for competitive reasons!), so I suppose anything is possible.
December 20th, 2020 at 9:45 PM ^
College football is essentially pro football without the formalities. That train has left that station already
I was thinking about posting an article about how NIL would affect recruiting after talking to people in the biz. Would folks find that interesting?
December 20th, 2020 at 9:53 PM ^
Um...yea! I always find your post interesting
December 20th, 2020 at 9:54 PM ^
Absolutely. It has to even the playing field right? Expansion of the playoffs would help decrease the concentration of top prospects at 3-6 schools. But NIL may overcome that. Money talks.
December 20th, 2020 at 10:28 PM ^
Especially if you take for granted a lot of variables about how students will come to decisions, but it’s highly likely that M could be a huge beneficiary of a monetary realignment of an actual level playing field, would for sure improve the level of coaching, time management and value of degree. Finding those coaches that can adjust to a more professional ( for lack of a better word), environment, will be even more important going forward. The “train”, has left the station beyond a doubt, but the path forward is still TBD. Hopefully it is one that rewards the athletes with their own opportunities to make bank while at the school, doing it in the right way, and in accordance with almost everyone else in the marketplace, ideally. NCCA can pound sand while hopefully atoning for a great many self serving decisions from the past, to many to cite. I am trying hard to be positive, resilient, something good in sports would come in handy at the moment.
December 21st, 2020 at 10:23 AM ^
It probably makes it fairer for "Clean" teams like Michigan, but widens the gap even more between say a Vanderbilt and a Georgia where the school and alums can and will spend whatever (not to mention the Ohio States of the world).
December 21st, 2020 at 6:52 AM ^
umgo, yes I'd love to see what you have to say about it. I've wondered for a while about how recruiting will be impacted and what changes it will create.
December 21st, 2020 at 6:55 AM ^
I would very much like that
December 24th, 2020 at 1:34 PM ^
Late to the game here, but if you wrote a post about watching paint dry I would probably find it interesting. So yes, I think we would.
December 20th, 2020 at 11:16 PM ^
Cool story bro!
Now go make us a sandwich ?
December 21st, 2020 at 12:23 AM ^
I think that those people who think that universities are going to be allowed to run professional sports teams don't understand the nature of universities. They have no remit to run for-profit airlines, insurance companies, banks, or pro sports teams. They'd have to spin off the for-profit entities. They couldn't require professional athletes to pretend to be students, as that would be restraint of trade, I am pretty sure (and the court cases would be endless and ongoing).
What I can see is that the NCAA or Congress will pass some kind of NIL rights rules or legislation (too many states will do so if there isn't a federal effort), and that this will, in essence, legalize bagmen. Players will play for the school whose bagmen make the best offer, and will have to enroll and play as student-athletes. That way, schools can still claim that intercollegiate sports is about the students, and justify their money sports.
The impact of legalized bagmen will be further separation of the haves from the have-nots, since it will be the enthusiasm of the boosters, not the general alumni or students, that will determine a team's quality. Nothing enthuses bagmen like winning, and nothing kills enthusiasm like losing.
Basketball will probably survive this, since lots of things determine games besides team quality. But it will be the beginning of the end for big-time college football. The same teams will dominate for the foreseeable future, until even their boosters tire of it.
That's probably for the best, given what we know about football's physical impact on players. Fifty years from now, we will be cheering for what the rest of the world calls football.
December 21st, 2020 at 12:27 AM ^
If you’re offering us a prospectus it better include a forward looking statements disclaimer.
December 21st, 2020 at 6:56 AM ^
True. I didn't think about format, just the ideas.
December 21st, 2020 at 5:03 AM ^
TL:DR. Diary Bro.
December 21st, 2020 at 6:58 AM ^
Being fairly new to the blog, I was unsure of the differences between Diary and Board. Reading through various pieces, I fail to see the difference. Any insights provided are most appreciated.
December 21st, 2020 at 10:18 AM ^
It’s obvious you’re new to the blog.
December 21st, 2020 at 4:52 PM ^
Interesting topic, but I think some people on this blog fail to recognize:
(a) good natured ribbing
(b) that a convoluted long winded post is going to receive a few eye rolls. No offense, just sayin’.
December 21st, 2020 at 11:36 AM ^
This is your own personal section of MGoBlog, to post in as you like. There is a minimum of 200 words on a diary entry. This is for your own original content. Note: smack talk is strongly discouraged.
Some guidelines for would-be diarists:
If you're trying to think up filler to get to the word minimum, it should be on the message board.
If it's off topic, it should be on the message board.
If it's a link to someone else's content without some added value (analysis, aggregation, critique) it should go on the message board.
In general, anything that's just another post you should put on the board.
Something that requires effort you would like to keep around for posterity's sake should be a diary.
December 21st, 2020 at 9:58 AM ^
Put it this way. The athletic department with the most revenue earns twice as much as #30 on the least. In the new model only 2-3 dozen programs will be able to compete for the top players. Those teams will end up forming a league of sorts, might as well be the primary feeder for the NFL. Everyone else will fall into place in one more other levels. If 2030 rolls around and the Power 5 conferences exist as we know them for football it would be shocking.
December 21st, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
Your scenario seems like a logical progression from the current state of affairs. Or the NFL foots the bill for a true minor league system and the NCAA recircles the wagon around the "amateur student athlete" premise. A simpler method would be to adopt a traditional playoff structure with, say, 16 teams. But I guess that's too simple of a solution.
If the 20-24 team super league was eventually adopted, it would be cool to incorporate the Euro soccer league mentality of teams being promoted or demoted from top to lower tier each season. That would allow a Boise State or Coastal Carolina to compete with the big boys every now and then based on perennial dominance in the lower tier.
Regardless of how this all shakes out, it will be an interesting transition to a new reality in the next few years.
December 21st, 2020 at 1:31 PM ^
I hope Blue in MD is right. That way it is easy for me to completely dismiss the shit commercial programs and watch real college football. Its like a scenario of trimming the shit foam off the top of college football--leaving real college football that can be watched and enjoyed again.