OT: Weekend Betting - Conference Championships

Submitted by BeatOSU52 on December 1st, 2023 at 6:17 PM

Please post your weekend bets, what you're thinking of betting, or whatever to do with betting for the weekend's slate of games.  I'll start (all lines are from when they were placed):

 

(Previous week record: 5-5; Overall season record: 57-57)

 

Friday games:

New Mexico St vs Liberty, 7pm:  Under 57

Oregon vs Washington, 8pm: Washington +10

Oregon vs Washington, 8pm: Over 65.5

 

Saturday games:

Toledo vs Miami Oh, 12pm:  Toledo -7

Toledo vs Miami Oh, 12pm:  Under 44

Boise St vs UNLV, 3pm:  UNLV +2.5

App St vs Troy, 4pm:  App St +5

SMU vs Tulane, 4pm:  SMU +3.5

Georgia vs Alabama, 4pm:  Over 55

Michigan vs Iowa , 8pm:  Under 35.5

 

Notable spreads of discussion:

Michigan currently sits as a 21.5 point favorite over Iowa; Over/Under is 34.5

Texas currently sits as a 15 point favorite over Oklahoma St

Georgia currently sits as a 5 point favorite over Alabama

Oregon currently sits as a 9.5 point favorite over Washington

Florida St currently sits as a 2 point favorite over Louisville

 

Other lines:

https://www.vegas.com/gaming/sportsline/college-football/

Durham Blue

December 1st, 2023 at 6:31 PM ^

After thinking all week that I was going to put my money on Oregon -9.5, I chose Washington +9.5.  I also took Washington to win.  Gut feel on this one.  We'll see about my gut soon.

EDIT:

I also have a decent chunk (for me) on Michigan -23.  And I will probably take Georgia minus whatever.

greymarch

December 1st, 2023 at 6:36 PM ^

- UM/Iowa, take the over.  Look at what UM did to Iowa in the B1G champ game 2 years ago, and Iowa had a better O to keep the ball away from Michigan.  Michigan's going to have the ball almost the entire game.  Iowa's D is over-rated.  Iowa hasnt faced a good O all season.  Michigan is going put at least 31 on the scoreboard, probably closer to 35-38 on Iowa.

 

- Agree with the OP on taking the over for OR/UW.

 

- Take GA and the points.  Bama is wildly over-rated.  So many games this season Bama was razor-close to losing.  GA is back to it's 2021-2022 form.

 

- I think FSU will win, even if they play their 3rd string QB.  FSU has a decent O-line and a fleet of good RBs.  I see FSU having quite a bit of success running the ball vs UL.  That, along with a decent D should allow FSU to win in a close game.

 

- Texas?  Hmmm.  I dont have much confidence on taking either team with points, or taking either of the over/under.  If I had to make some kind of standard bet on Texas/OK.St, I guess I would bet the over.

 

#GoBlue

 

#Bet

NittanyFan

December 1st, 2023 at 6:54 PM ^

SMU +3.5 at Tulane is it for this week (in terms of actual bets).  Mustangs have looked better than Tulane for a month+ of late, and this would be a huge program-win for them (I think they jump Liberty for the NYD6 slot).  Tulane will be motivated, but I think SMU will be even more so.

If I were FORCED to bet the P5 title games: I'd go Washington +9.5, Texas -14.5, Georgia -5.5, Michigan -21.5, Florida State -1.5.  Intuitively, it feels like chalk should hit more often than not on Championship Week.  Less of the emotional up-and-down of the season, more of talent simply prevailing. 

The stats somewhat back that up.  All time, favorites are 16-15 ATS in SEC title games, 11-10 in Big XII title games, 12-6 in ACC title games, 5-7 in Pac-12 title games, 4-7-1 in B1G title games and 5-3 in AAC title games (53-48-1 all together, 52.4% clip).

greymarch

December 1st, 2023 at 7:27 PM ^

Prediction: Oregon 38, Washington 31. It will stay fairly close because spaz-boy Lanning is good for a couple of emotionally-motivated stupid decisions.

 

#GoBlue

 

#Bet

Midukman

December 2nd, 2023 at 7:36 AM ^

I’d take Georgia to cover, we win but JH respects KF too much to run him out of the building. But then again, maybe he does to give pet titties the bird. Good Texas vs bad Texas? Louisville as much as it pains me will probably lose and let in Bama because….sec. It just means more.