OT: Potential 2021 MLB Draft format is no 2020 season played
With the state of the negotiations between the league office, owners, and MLBPA, I was wondering what a draft order for the 2021 draft would be or look like.
The last time there was a full season missed in a sports league was the 2004-05 NHL season. For that 2005 draft, there was a 30 team draft lottery for the first pick. The chances were weighted by if that team had a playoff appearance in the last 3 seasons and whether they had a number one overall pick in the last 4 drafts. If they had no playoff appearance and no first overall picks, they were given 3 lottery balls. If they had one of either a playoff appearance or one first overall pick, they were given 2 lottery balls. All other teams were given one lottery ball. Teams with 3 lottery balls had a 6.3% chance of winning the first pick, teams with 2 had a 4.2% chance, and teams with one had a 2.1% chance. From my understanding they determined the full order through the lottery. And the 2nd round went in reverse order of the first, meaning the team that had the 30th pick also had 31, and the team that picked number 1 didn’t pick again to 60.
As a tigers fan it is intriguing to see how this would play out for the next draft. One thought I had was they could group the teams by 3 and reverse the order within those groups. So the tigers would pick third, the orioles would stay at second, Marlins would pick first. The next 3 would be the mariners, blue jays, royals in that order. And so on. It’s not perfect, but just trying to get creative. Obviously would be nice for my fav team to pick first again, but I don’t think the league would let that happen without the tigers earning it by sucking for the 50 or so games they are proposing right now.
Potential top three are Kumar Rocker (P-Vandy), Brady House (SS/OF/RHP-HS, Jack Leiter (P-Vandy). In the above scenario I proposed, the tigers would be guaranteed one of these players.
How do you think they would determine the order if no season is played in 2020? And what type of ordering would you like to see?
Is Barbaro Garbey available? Sparky says he's gonna be the next Roberto Clemente. How about Chris Pittaro?
I believe there’s an agreement in place that would allow the order to be set randomly even if there’s a short 2020 season.
Say what? The owners are a fucking clown show that couldn't tell their asses from their elbows. And your worried about next year's draft? They might well be playing to empty stadiums in 2021 only not because of Covid.
Baseball is the easiest of all sports to start in a pandemic. Outdoors. Spacing. If MLB can’t figure this out then burn it down and go back to Town Ball.
You haven't been paying attention, have you? This is about $$$$$ my brother. They (players and owners) both want the biggest slice of pie.
The players already agreed to the paycut back in March in good faith. The owners want to fuck them over again by asking for another paycut and less game. The owners keep asking for the same thing in a different way that the players said no. It's the owners who are fucking up the negotiation, not the players.
Paycut and less games? They will play less games by virtue of the late start and everyone in America is making less money because of the pandemic. It's not worth arguing about, because I really don't care, but they can play for less now, and make it up with getting a little more attention in this no sport time, or they can damage the sport forever and make less in the future because of it. Baseball has been progressively losing fans, and a summer without, will just prove to more fans, they don't really need the sport.
Players (not owners) have grown the game over the last 25 years and they haven’t shared equally in the rewards. But now in the midst of a pandemic they should swallow a giant shit sandwich because a bunch of billionaires are worried about what amounts to a rounding error?
The players have been rewarded, salaries continue to go up and there are now several players with contracts paying over $30M/year. The value that MLB creates goes far more toward the players than the owners.
The owners, not the players, made the investments in MLBAM and MLB network years ago, which did more to grow the game then anything the players did. Also, more than half the team's have changed ownership over the last 20 years - the ones who oversaw much of the appreciation in value have cashed out, and new owners bought in at higher prices. I'm not surprised some can't afford to throw more money in. Running games without fans while keeping player costs constant, on top of the commitments many teams made to continue paying staff and minor league players, is unsurprisingly too much to ask of the owners. The cost is much more than a rounding error to many of the owners. Many were already operating at a loss and borrowing money to make it work, and don't want to go further into a hole.
Asking Mike Trout to only get paid $5M to play a game is swallowing a giant shit sandwich? Okay.
Nice try -- the average player salary has remained flat over the last 5 years - meanwhile league revenue continues to rise and MLB just inked another billion dollar deal for broadcasting rights this month.
This is before we even talk about the real money -- the franchise value. The average franchise value has gone up 11% YoY for all franchises. Just think about that and contrast it with flat average salaries. Explain to me again how "The value that MLB creates goes far more toward the players than the owners."
And, the players have agreed to play under the terms of the agreement. Manfred just has to set the number of games. The hold-up now is that the owners are afraid of a grievance that would likely be filed and likely require them to pay the amount agreed to in March regardless. Crazily, they’re saying that the possibility of a grievance is bad faith. I’m guessing there are enough of you out there familiar with labor law to recognize the absurdity of the owners’ position. Tyler Kepner has an article in today’s NYTimes that skewers the owners. In the 6th paragraph, he says it all. Many of the the owners believe they will lose less money if there’s no season, so they’re putting up roadblocks to bring that to pass. In yesterday’s WaPo, Tom Boswell made many of the same points.
Totally get it. My poorly made point is that baseball has fewer “pandemic related” issues compared to hockey or basketball (Indoor/close proximity/breathing vapor); or football. The known obstacle for MLB to restart is financial which is unforgivable if the owners can’t figure that out for the sake of the fans. Give the players what they want. The players are the product.
Is there a bigger crapshoot than the MLB draft? Between fragile arms and shoulders from pitchers and power not translating from HS and college to pro ball, you just never know. 2017 Royce Lewis, 2016 Mickey Moniak, 2015 Dansby Swanson, 2014 Brady Aiken, 2013 Mark Appel. Do you get where I'm going here?
I noticed your list includes a current top 10 prospect, a starting caliber shortstop, a player who didn't sign and whose comp pick the following year turned into Alex Bregman and conveniently stops just before a 4 year run of mvp level talent. I would say it is about as big of a crapshoot as any other draft.
Football:
2019 Kyler Murray (ROY)
2018 Baker Mayfield
2017 Myles Garrett (Pro Bowl, and All Pro)
2016 Jared Goff (Superbowl QB and 2 time All pro)
2015 Jameis Winston
2014 Jadeveon Clowney (2nd team all pro, and 3x pro bowl
Basketball:
2019 Zion Williamson
2018 Deandre Ayton
2017 Markelle Fultz
2016 Ben Simmons
2015 Karl Anthony Towns
2014 Andrew Wiggins
I don't follow hockey and I know it's like baseball with a minor league system, but every player named has started and contributed to their teams. Not so much in baseball. Crapshoot.
Fultz ... might be an okay bench microwave? Wiggins is, per analytics, a genuinely atrocious player.
Um, Dansby Swanson does not belong on this list.
I was a home plate umpire for Jack Leiter during a U12 tournament. Mound was 50 feet and he was throwing between 80-85. Truly wondered if I was going to survive that experience.
I'm sure he was throwing hard, but I'm calling BS on a 12-year old touching 85mph.
First, you've got to remember that this wasn't 60 feet, 6 inches, it was 50 feet so the comparison isn't equivalent. I had truly never seen anything like it. Kids at these "camps" (this was in Cooperstown) are already being scouted and are often offered scholarships at 12 and 13. I was told by one of the parents he had been clocked at 82 so when I give the range I don't think it's that unreasonable. Also, he didn't look like many other 12 year olds who were on the field that day. Kid was definitely physically mature for his age.
On a side note, his dad Al was the head coach. I'm a Mets fan and loved him as a pitcher but he was quite the asshole that morning. Dude rode me for everything including the weather and the condition of the baseballs.
Rocker-Mize would be a helluva top of the rotation for 2023.