OT: Gauging outcomes of Michigan's wins from '13-'17
Hypothetically, if you had to bet on who would have more wins in that 4 year span; VT or UM - who would it be? I am worried about the quality of opponents in the ACC and the amount of "free wins" they receive. What would you do? Hypothetically, you'd have to work a week for free if you lost.
Is this for a bet that you wont even find out the outcome for until 2017?
Naturally. I know, it is beyond-stupid. It is a large amount of money (hypothetically) that would have to be paid out though, so I am semi-serious about the question.
how in the world do you have so many negative points??
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Wise words, and a practical strategy. I never put money down on my favorite teams. No sense in getting beat twice.
hmmmm...this doesn't seem hypothetical at all. but, to tackle your question I'd bet on Michigan. Yes, they may have easier games but Michigan has some solid classes coming in and I'm expecting to average around 10 wins a year. That's tough for most anyone to match, even someone from the ACC
Don't make stupid bets that will take 5 1/2 years to find out who wins, and tell your butthurt friend to get over the Sugar Bowl.
I will take the upcoming 4 year schedules of both teams and look at historic winning percentage of all teams on the schedule. Then I would take a look at the historic winning percentage of VT or UM vs. that opponent, of course factoring in home field advantage situations. I would run multiple Monte Carlo play-by-play simulations of each game based on predictions of future recruiting after watching countless hours of high school football tape and in-depth interviews with the coaches. After obtaining confidence intervals, and as a double-check, I would randomly sample all Vegas oddsmakers and local bookies.
And in the end, I'd flip a coin and say Michigan because This Is MGoBlog Fergodsakes!
Wait is this serious? VT will have half as many wins as Michigan in that timeframe.
Exactly twice since 1999. That's a lot of 10 and 11 win seasons. I don't see the program collapsing unless Beamer retires (and it may not then if they hire a decent replacement).
I decided to do the bet. I know the question is trivial and teeters on who gives a f***, but figured I would get some interesting answers worst case scenario. Thanks for all the input. I was minding my own business, and he came to my page, touting some recruit they landed today. I guess when you're ranked 29th in recruiting, he was quite excited.
this is some random internet guy... Um... stupid bet.
And when bouje says something is stupid, it most likely is.
I'm guessing he is referring to a friend on his facebook page. But if he isn't, yes this is extremly dumb.
in the wrong place. Care to reveal your source for hallucinogenic Oberon?
Nothing like it for a sweet visionquest. It's the same reason I know exactly how many wins Michigan and Virginia Tech will have over the next 5 years.
But I'm not telling, muaahaaaahaaaahaaa! You can all buy your own beer/peyote and find out for yourselves.
You haven't heard of Oberon 2C-B? It's very popular where I'm living these days.
Speaking of a prop bet, which is the obvious reason for this query, there had to be a lot of people pissed when the US basketball team scored 98 points today. I would imagine that a lot of people took the US to break 100.
Since 1993, VT is averaging 9.7 wins per season and over the last decade won 10.2 per averaging 13.5 games played in that decade.
Bo won 10.8 games for every 13.5 he played in a very very favorable environment. The Lloyd and Mo years saw that average dip to...10.2.
So it seems like the long term trends for each team are very very similar. The difference to me is that M still has to recover completely from its RR hangover. The attrition and talent deficit that affected the program during that time was substantial relative to our norm. If I had to bet, I'd very slightly favor VT.
On one hand, I wouldn't be willing to play anything that high stakes for what as far as I can tell amounts pretty nearly to a coin flip. On the other, even if you're making $2K a week and you're 55% to lost, that's only -$200 in expected value. Since it happens over the course of 4 years, you could pretty easily increase your savings somewhat to make sure a loss didn't hurt too bad.
But honestly: you didn't have the balls to say yes or no on the spot. You're probably not the gambling type and you probably don't enjoy making bets.
Beamer will be 70 in 2017, Hoke will be 58. That's not an insignificant age gap, and it's not crazy to think Beamer might hang it up before 2017 rolls around. Maybe they get a good fit, maybe they end up in a PSU 2012/M 2007 prolonged search situation and come out on the wrong end of the deal. If VT loses Beamer I would guess that average drops for a year or two at least.
But 2013-2017 is 5 seasons, not 4
2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017
I can't believe no one pointed that out earlier.
Anyway, as far as the question is concerned, when Hoke was hired and I saw what he was doing right away (being out here and seeing what he accomplished at SDSU made me a big proponent of his, BTW) I predicted that U-M is entering a golden era in its Football History, which is saying something to begin with.
U-M will win more, take it to the bank! We will win at least 10 games a year and have 11-13 win seasons often, this is gonna be fun people!
P.S. We will also have 14-15 win seasons a couple or three times in a 15 year Hoke career hypothetically, I'm pretty confident of this.
Looking at the future schedules for the Hokies - here - and then ours - here - and then doing a very informal (indeed, no Excel involved) analysis, I am going to say Michigan does, taking into account historic trends as well. In any event, VTech plays Ohio and Wisconsin and a couple other non-slouches in the future schedules, so they don't get all that many "free wins". Further, it's hard to say where some of these programs will be in 5 years.
Hypothetically, however, if losing this bet means working free for a week, I would try to find another position before the end of 2017 or have an excellent employment law attorney lined up to fight for that week of salary anyway.