OT: FiveThirtyEight Playoff Implications

Submitted by MichAero on

FiveThirtyEight has their week 15 playoff implications out now.

Games to watch for the SF playoff picture: SF @ SEA, MIN @ DET, ARZ @ STL.

If Detroit and Seattle win, it looks like SF is done (rounding errors might be causing it to not drop completely to 0.0). It also looks like SF is done if Seattle and Arizona win.

The Detroit picture just depends on MIN @ DET and DAL @ PHI. A win for Detroit would put them above a 90% chance to make it, while the Dallas and Philly game only swings the chances from +0.7 to -1.2. If it makes you feel better, root for Philly.

Link: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-week-15-playoff-implications-the-chances-a-coin-flip-will-decide-the-postseason/

I know a lot of us were following this last week through the games, so I figured I'd post it  now considering the Arizona game is on tonight.

EDIT: Added hyperlink.

mgowill

December 11th, 2014 at 5:04 PM ^

Hmmm...I will go with this guess -

 

 

  • 49ers lay a turd again - SF 6 SEA 27
  • Lions smack the Vikings - DET 28 MN 13
  • Arizona and St. Louis forget to play offense - AZ 6 STL 2

GoBLUinTX

December 11th, 2014 at 5:27 PM ^

If SF loses and Detroit wins SF will absolutely not be in the playoffs.  Put simply, the two wildcards will end the season with at least 10 wins (AZ, Sea, Det, GB and Phily or Dal) and SF can win only nine.

kody99

December 11th, 2014 at 9:40 PM ^

got off the phone less than one hour ago with a close friend in the states ...  

as soon as SF is eliminated, JH will seriously engage.   But, he's indicated that he wants the framework in place so when he's ready, it happens very quickly.  

Muttley

December 12th, 2014 at 6:46 AM ^

 

 

The 49ers close out the season with
  @ Seattle     (9-4)  
  vs SanDiego (8-5)
  vs Arizona   (11-3)

The 49ers can't win their division.  San Francisco may still be able to catch the following five teams that--from the 49ers perspective--are competing for the two wildcard spots should they not take the NFC North or NFC East title:

Green Bay 10-3
Seattle 9-4
Detroit 9-4
Philly 9-4
Dallas 9-4

SanFran owns the head-to-head tiebreaker against either Philly or Dallas.

SanFran is 0-1 vs Seattle, but has a game remaining with the Seahawks.

SanFran plays neither Green Bay nor Detroit.

Philly & Dallas         play 12/14 (1 sure win/loss)
GreenBay & Detroit play 12/28 (1 sure win/loss)

 

Remaining Opponents

Contender (W-L) 12/14 12/21 12/28
Green Bay (10-3) @Buff (7-6) @TB (2-11) Det (9-4)
Seattle (9-4) SF (7-6) @AZ (11-3) StL (6-8)
Detroit (9-4) Minn (6-7) @Chic (5-8) @GB (10-3)
Philly (9-4) Dal (9-4) @Wash (3-10) @NYG (4-9)
Dallas (9-4) @Phil (9-4) Indi (9-4) @Wash (3-10)