Offense Transition Timeline
Recruits keep saying that Michigan is transitioning to a spread and that Gattis has the keys. #speedinspace. After having lived through (barely) RR and Hoke's offensive transitions and even JH's transition to a competent linemen lacking underwhelming offense I'm a bit skittish.
Our offense is loaded with talent that should be able to play in a spread, but am I going to hear that Tarik, Nico and DPJ are too tall and slow to really play in a spread the first time we play anyone?
What will the offensive transition look like? Lower my expectations of total dominance so that I am emotionally prepared. Will our defense suck because we're no longer playing ball control? Will our line be able to block? I want to know the speed bumps now.
Only thing we're missing is our own Saquon
Zachuon Charbarkley
Look, I know Charbonnet didn't commit to Rutgers first but he could be pretty damn good.....
Can't tell you how much Michigan will win--anxious question underlying a lot of posts like yours--but I would say that as details of Harbaugh's pursuit of Gattis have emerged I have felt very reassured about Jim's essential sanity and humble willingness to evolve in order to put Michigan in a position to win.
The hardest transition for coaches in sports is going from energetic and inspiring genius to stable caretaker and true leader, especially with the sprawling enterprise that a football program really is. Recent positive recruiting news seems to reinforce the idea that there is excitement about Michigan out there, hard work being done to keep the cylinders oiled, and serious promise of future success.
Beyond these, I don't think that anyone, almost ever, can predict more than the fact that the program will get its nine-ten wins; the rest is a matter of breaks of the oblate sphere, the gods and--just maybe--the fact that we're never going to have a completely professional kind of squad like Clemson and Alabama.
Those of us who had high hopes that Rich Rod could make something really exciting happen on the field--and got too much of it--are holding our breath now that something similar, even better, may be in the making.
The schedule sets up nicely for the introduction of a revitalized approach. The first half of the season should allow quite a bit of tinkering and evolution before the schedule gets really difficult. Even the open date in week three should come in handy.
Aug 31 Middle TennesseeAnn Arbor, MI
Sep 7 ArmyAnn Arbor, MI
Sep 14 Open
Sep 21 at WisconsinMadison, WI
Sep 28 RutgersAnn Arbor, MI
Oct 5 IowaAnn Arbor, MI
Oct 12 at IllinoisChampaign, IL
Oct 19 at Penn StateState College, PA
Oct 26 Notre DameAnn Arbor, MI
Nov 2 at MarylandCollege Park, MD
Nov 9 Open
Nov 16 Michigan StateAnn Arbor, MI
Nov 23 at IndianaBloomington, IN
Nov 30 Ohio StateAnn Arbor, MI
7 weeks (6 games) before PSU/ND should make the offense mostly weaponized by then. But again, none of it will matter if they shit the bed against OSU. Of course, I'm still jaded by last year (and the last 15+ years if I'm being honest) but as much hope and promise this offense seems to hold I can't be in anything but a "I'll believe it when I see it" mindset.
Also, I really hate having to play Indiana right before OSU though. Way too many close calls against them, especially when they haven't beaten us in forever and everyone is looking to OSU. Who the hell keeps scheduling them in that slot?!
I like Indiana in front of OSU. IF we used the tape from that game as much as OSU did every year maybe we'd win one against the Buckeyes.
Indiana has quality enough coaching that they can find a teams weakness and just good enough athletes to scare the piss out of us with that coaching. It's the perfect scrimmage for OSU, that we completely ignore the lessons of for some reason.
We should spend the week before the Indiana game preparing for OSU. If we lose to Indiana, but beat OSU, no one will care that we lost to Indiana.
Plus everyone in Bloomington will get laid, so it's really a public service.
This.... I.... actually would be ok with this.
I didnt realize we had that nov 9 bye. That is perfect timing to heal and prepare for those final 3 games.
yeah for some reason i thought they just had the early bye (which i normally dont like) and then had to run off 9-10 more or whatever. its huge to get another week off before msu and the home stretch
They ran out of the gun, read option, and some RPO stuff last year and have QBs who can move.
This isn't going from Lloyd Carr to RichRod. The steps between those offenses were huge. They needed smaller, more agile lineman. A QB who could be a legit run threat, and it was a general departure from the old Michigan downhill football.
Those teams didn't have the DPJ/Collins like WRs either. Their best WR was... Greg Matthews? The QB was Threat/Sheridan for crying out loud. This year is nothing like that.
The biggest concern anyone should have, outside of general play calling choices, is with the OL being too big and straightforward, but still leaps and bounds better than the 2008 line. The QB is way better. The WRs are way better. The coaching staff is way better.
I think the fact that Michigan started to implement more spread and RPO looks in 2018 really benefits them. Add in Shea Patterson having run that kind of offense since IMG Academy and Ed Warriner's history with it, I think the transition won't be as bad as it could have been switching directly from MANBALL to the spread.
People expecting a fundamental change in our offense are going to be disappointed. We may do some things better than last year, and some things not as well, like most teams, most years. When we choose to use it, it’s reasonable to expect our passing game to be more effective, assuming everyone can stay healthy and improve. But this will still be primarily a run first offense. Harbaugh’s offenses here have been 55-60% running plays, and that mix isn’t going to change. We’re still going to be primarily RRR or RRP, with some play action thrown in on 2nd and 8ish, as usual. We will still be looking to take our foot off the gas and move to a hyper-conservative play-not-to-lose running game as soon as we get a decent lead in the 2nd half. We will still be running the ball on third and short just as much as we always have, and we will still play ultra-conservative on the passing game inside our own 20.
Patterson will have his nice, comfy 17-26, 224 yds, 2TDs 0 INT games against the Illinois and the Minnesotas of the world, but he will never be turned loose unless we’re way behind and desperate, and we’ll get our nice comfy 34-13 “what are you complaining about, we won by 21” wins against the mediocre teams on our schedule.
I sincerely hope you are incorrect
Deep in the blues, you are - BPONE is prominent!
I get the historically accurate version of Michigan football you're looking forward to. But I'll choose to look at Gattis and think "this is not my father's Michigan OC"... The offenses he's been part of at PSU and Alabama are as different from what the 'normal' Michigan OC runs (think Pep, anyone from Carr, etc) as you can get, without pulling a Rich Rod. I think there will be more chance plays in historically conservative situations (RPO deep on 2nd & 9), and more misdirection and quick hitting plays around the field, than Michigan has done in ever.
This offense, as I see it, will not rely on the man-man dominance of winning a block; rather, it will rely on playmakers making plays. And I think that will be independent of the score.
People weren't as annoyed with the run/pass breakdown last year as they were with the type of run/pass breakdown. That's not to say people were ok running the ball a bunch, it was running the ball a bunch in a shoe box especially against defenses that had liabilities in space and against better athletes that was infuriating.
Running on 1st down? That's fine. Most teams do that consistently.
Running on 1st down with 3 TEs so the defense can send 9 guys into the box and limit the run to 2 yards so you're behind the sticks? That's annoying.
PA on 1st or 2nd down? Again, not a terrible way to approach things.
PA on 1st or 2nd down, only sending out 2 WRs in long developing routes is again, annoying.
Running the ball against NW? Ok, I get that.
Running the ball into NW's DTs and LBs? The strength of their defense. A defense that doesn't have good athletes at OLB, S, and CB? Really annoying.
Oklahoma ran the ball on 56% of their offensive plays last year. They ran 9 more times per game than they threw. PSU in 2017 was almost 50/50 in their run/pass breakdown. 2017 OSU was 57% run. Last year they were 50/50.
2015 Michigan ran 54% of the time. Rudock averaged 30 passing attempts per game. Those numbers aren't significantly different than most programs. Last year was skewed further away from passing, but also had to deal with an OL that got worked week 1 and they actively took steps to avoid putting Patterson in danger the best they could.
What differs is how Michigan ran the ball more so than how much Michigan ran the ball.
You conspicuously failed to mention that Michigan has run the ball 60% of the time each of the last three years. That’s what Harbaugh wants and what he is almost certain to continue to do. And why wouldn’t he? Last year’s offense was as effective as any he’s had here.
You conspicuously failed to mention that Michigan has run the ball 60% of the time each of the last three years.
I don't have much of a rebuttal here other than 2016 they bombed teams off the map and had multiple games of 15 passes and 55 runs that skewed the numbers even more so. Late in the year Speight got hurt and they tried to protect him against OSU by leaning on the running game and defense. That Iowa game will always be a rage inducing example of shitty play calling.
2017 had the worst OL in recent memory, 3 QBs, and John freaking O'Korn throwing the ball around. The Wing-T would have been a better idea than having JOK throw more than 10 times/game (only half joking).
2018 was similar to 2016 where they bombed teams off the map with the exception of ND (where they threw more than they ran) and OSU. They only threw the ball 17 times against a top 15 PSU because they humiliated them. But, they did go shotgun and run RO sets that got their running game space to operate. Even though they ran a bunch, they started to run smarter (except against OSU where they went stupid real fast).
And why wouldn’t he? Last year’s offense was as effective as any he’s had here.
So, wait. Are you annoyed that they run a bunch or not, because your first comment made it seem like running 55-60% = very bad. Most teams, when they get up, pack it in. Most teams try to establish the run and don't immediately drop back 75% of the time. That's... college football.
Again, what needs to change is not so much how much they run but how they run. If they only need to throw 15 times to win a game by 40 over a top 25 team, I'll never complain. When it comes to big games against OSU, MSU, ND, Wisconsin, and PSU, they will probably have to air it out more and I think Gattis will be more than willing to do so. Yes, Harbaugh will still have his tendencies baked into the offense, but if its efficient and explosive, then they'll be just fine.
If you bother to read my first comment, I said nothing about "good" or "bad", or about being "annoyed". I simply said that our offensive philosophy is not going to change significantly from previous Harbaugh years, and that people who are expecting our offense to look new and different will likely be disappointed.
If you bother to read my first comment,
Sorry, I inferred a tone from the overall word choice of your comment. No need to be a dick about it.
"Disappointed"
"Hyper-conservative"
"Play-not-to-lose"
"Comfy"
and "never be turned loose unless we're desperate"
are all phrases/word choices that make it seem like you have a problem with it and see it as a less than optimal approach.
All of those characterizations are objectively true. Patterson has been allowed to have safe, conservative games, and that’s all. He was not let loose at all last year. The only times he had 30 attempts or more were in our three losses. Harbaugh has consistently played not to lose late in close games where he’s ahead, relying almost exclusively on a safe running game, and hoping his defense can hold the lead. Everyone on this board has seen that. It’s simply what he does.
As I said, I’m making no judgement on how good or bad in any absolute sense our offense will be, or even how good it will be relative to other Harbaugh years. Just that it’s not going to do things that much differently than the last 4 seasons. People who expect something they don’t get are likely to be disappointed, yes. But I didn’t say I would be.
Lots of good facts and stuff in this reply.
I think you've outdone me in that regard.
Weren't we supposed to have transitioned to the spread under Rich Rodriguez?
We did! Full on, straight up out of the gate, with un-athletic players recruited for Carr's stagnant philosophy and Mike Gittleson's pizza based weight gain training system.
I think it'll be different this time...
This is a dumb post
....and you're a bastard.
The OP is not alone ...... after the osu loss and then the UF debacle in the Peach, I was ready to end my 53y relationship with Michigan football. I'd had enough ...... of LC's last years, the RR fiasco, the blundering years of Dave Brandon and Brady Hoke and 4 years of Jim Harbaugh not winning championships as we expected him to do. True, frustratingly close. But then, dong punched.
The Gattis hire was encouraging yet, clearly, the impact is TBD. The glimpses we've had of his work in the spring game along with copious speculation about Gattis and how he will run M's offense contained in various CFB articles, including Seth's here, all provide a positive back-drop for optimism.
But think about this. How many times in your history of the summers before the next season has optimism grown about this coach or player, that kind of offense or defense, you know, how many times have you gotten dong-punched as the season unfolded? Plenty? So, yes, my guard is up.
What we hope to see? An objective improvement in offensive efficiency - moving the chains. What M needs to see that? Two things:
(1) A run game that exploits the inherent advantages of the RPO and RO plays that Shea Patterson is reportedly good at. Did we see that when Jim Harbaugh and Pep Hamilton were running the offense? Nope and this despite calls from every knowledgeable observer to do that. M, under JH/PH was pretty much one dimensional and every DC M faced knew that.
(2) A passing game that threatens underneath AND can take the top off a defense. M ranked 9th in S&P passing efficiency last season. Not terrible but the usual suspects (OU, UA, UGA and Clemson) ranked above M. There were multiple reason for that that have been discussed here not the least of which was a supposed WCO that really wasn't mostly because Harbaugh wanted a run-centric offense.
M ranked 20th in FEI Offense in 2018. Again, not terrible but not elite or good enough to beat osu (#7) and had they actually done so, would have probably lost to OU, UA, UGA or Clemson (#1, 2, 3 and 5) in the CFP.
There's no way to predict whether or not M will move up to an elite level as measured by S&P or FEI statistics and these stats are not the be-all-end-all measures of a team's capacity to win championships. There are too many variables. I haven't even talked about the defense and our ostensibly great DC that got pantsed by day/ufm/osu and Mullen/UF.
Fundamentally, though, if Gattis can't deliver (1) and (2) above in his game plans or the players can't execute, or Don Brown is really not that good, there's a lesser chance in 2019 that we will see Michigan football rise to the level fans and the team expect. The talent and coaching is in place to win the East and advance to the BTC and CFP but, I've seen this story before and I know how it ends.
A big cause for the unfound optimism in your "history of the summers" is due to the age of the internet, and the over abundance of content, that feeds the fandom.
A big cause for the unfound optimism in your "history of the summers" is due to the age of the internet, and the over abundance of content, that feeds the fandom.
Transitioning of the offense? Not concerned at all given the personnel involved.
Transitioning from an adolescent boy to a 57 year man? I am still experiencing difficulties.
There is not going to be much of a transition. They are mostly going to be doing the same stuff, they're just going to try to score rather than kill the clock.
I mean, Alabama's offense did pretty awesome with Gattis last year. They had how many receivers that killed it last year, 4 ? I'd argue our wide receiver talent is just as equal as that Alabama team last year
I expect some hiccups. The personnel being a little less than ideal for what the new offense requires is not that big of a concern to me, learning a new offense is my concern. Brand new assignments and terminology can be tough to be 100% clicking right away. I think we'll come out strong and put up some points, but a few games in against better defenses we could struggle to put up points and control the ball. When this happens I hope we don't revert to the old offense.
Our offense won't be something teams aren't used to, more teams run a similar spread than don't now in our own conference. You win with it by out executing the other team, it takes time to execute at the level we'll need to to beat the good teams on our schedule. Also, Gattis has never done this job before, there will be a learning curve for him too, he's never run his own offense and never called plays before.
And I expect the defense to suffer stats wise from less of a ball control offense. With a retooled defense, we could over react to some of their stats early in the season, but they'll still be really good.
The difference is that our OL is now supposedly solid... some national writers even say its the best in the country, though I don't know how when we have a guard playing LT and an unknown at RT... when one has a dominant OL, then any offense will do fine. I am enthused.
I didn't think I would think this, but I think we are far better off now, with Gattis, Nua, Campanile, McDaniels, than with Pep, Benedict, the LB coach, and McElwain.
Agreed regarding McElwain, however I'd feel better if we didn't have that traitor go to O***
Mich 63 Army 7
The Army game will be the test of whether we're really doing anything different on offense. We'll know on our first drive of that game if our offensive approach has changed or not.
The Army game will be the test of whether we're really doing anything different on offense.
Why? Army's defense was 70th in S&P last year, lost its coordinator and 2 best LBs from last year. They're 120th in returning production on defense. That game doesn't call for some crazy explosive air raid. They should be able to handle them on the ground and it would be beneficial to control the clock to keep Army's offense off the field as that's a bigger concern.
You’re talking about playing conservatively, and playing not to lose, which is the worst thing you can do against a team like Army. The last thing you want to do is keep the score low and keep them in the game playing the way they want.
You run 3 and 4 WRs out there on every play, and pass them to death. Score fast, get a lead, and make their clock-eating offense work against them. Go on 4th down every play in their territory. Let them know that any mistake they make, we’ll be in their end zone in 2-3 minutes. Force them to give up on what they want to do as early as possible.
It seems like it's going to be similar to the Moorhead offense in terms of style. When Moorhead installed at Penn State they were okay for the first half of the first year and electric for the second half. They had the best RB in the country at the time, but they also had a bad offensive line, a freshman QB, and worse receivers than we have.
Most of these kids ran this offense in high school so I’m not sure the transition is that difficult. I believe in this day an age it’s probably harder for a kid to transition harbaughs offense from high school.
Its quite simple in college if you have the QB you have a chance