Odds and Ends (and in part, a reply to "The Hunch")
I'll start this post by saying I still don't know what to think/expect about our upcoming game.
A big part of me thinks we have one heck of a defense and an offense that is finally as full strength as it's going to be and has shown flashes of brilliance, but hasn't been able to sustain consistency.
On the other hand, our defense really hasn't seen an offense like Michigan's, so there's an unknown quantity there, and our offense in Ferentz's words has been about two weeks behind schedule all season long.
Now, as far as "The Hunch" is concerned. Yes, it is a blackout game, much like the one against Michigan in 2005 that felt like a funeral afterwards. I've never seen 70,000 Iowa fans more gloomy and quiet. The 2006 OSU game was mentioned...there is a big difference in that they were a better team than us, without question. We were just hoping the atmosphere would be enough to pull off the upset.
I don't think this year's Michigan team is better than this year's Iowa team. Ferentz's mantra has been one of staying even-keeled and just looking to improve from one game to the next. I would imagine that this, coupled with the fact that the players will probably be a bit more energized by the fans gives the Hawks the edge here. Iowa doesn't have their "traditional collapse" in big games. Last year it was Illinois, the year before that, NW. If we get beat by a better team, so be it, but again, I don't see UM being the better team. Maybe I'm wrong.
Game thoughts always bring me back to old axioms. "The game will be won and lost in the trenches," and because of this, I really like the Hawks in this one, barring another axiom occuring that "The team that makes the fewest mistakes wins." Here's where the rub lies with the way Stanzi has played so far. Unless he breaks from form, I can almost guarantee that he will throw a ball or two right at you guys.
In the end, this is an experienced, talented Iowa team. Moreso than we've had since our three year run as a #8 ranked team earlier this decade. I can't really say they've played a complete game to this point and if that happens Saturday night, it will be a long night for the Wolverines. Odds are good that that doesn't happen, so I don't think it will be a blowout, but I still do see the Hawks taking this one in convincing fashion, mostly because of the line play and the friendly confines of Kinnick. It will be an electric atmosphere, cold be damned.
If you guys can give me more details on what the philosophy on O&D have been, as well as who your key guys are, that would be great.
October 7th, 2009 at 10:50 AM ^
I'd love to be able to tell you who Michigan's key guys are, problem is, we are still learning. Possible tid bits of interest, when Michigan's wide receivers catch the ball they are trouble, a whole lot of speed, and a lot of depth, perhaps the most complete unit on our team. Tate Forcier is good, and going to be very good, most effective on the roll out, but not as accurate as one would like in the pocket. From all apperances, Michigan has not been using anything close to their entire playbook on offense, and given that last week's lost, chances are Rodriquez will open things up a little bit. Not sure if that is good thing or a bad thing. On defense, our front four has proven fairly solid, relative to the rest of the defense. Quite a bit of pressure, not a ton of sacks. At least competent against a traditional run very similar to Iowa's bread and butter. As for the linebackers and secondary, uh....... Donovan Warren is very good, we have been plugging holes with walkons elsewhere. Expect Michigan to drop many into coverage and rely on well timed blitzes as opposed to consistent pressure. It will be an interesting game. Based upon my knowledge of Iowa so far this year, I just can't figure out how good they are. They were out right suffocating in the second half against Penn State, by I watched large portions of Northern Iowa and Arkansas State, and well, not so great. I don't know what to expect. Good luck.
October 7th, 2009 at 10:51 AM ^
to be much crisper this game. Catching the ball. Making better reads. Hitting open holes rather than running by them. Uggh.
At MSU, it looked like no one was in sync and ready to play on O, especially early. Or at least there always seemed to be a miscue by at least one player that doomed nearly every drive. E.g., Brown and Minor colliding in backfield, Huyge whiffing on a block on G. Jones that would have sent Brown to the EZ if he had only gotten a piece, Forcier reading the back side end poorly, etc. I expect less of this this week if only that it's the second game on the road and the younger guys at least have had a taste of it.
M's Defense is a mystery. Pass defense didn't look that horrible against a talented MSU passing offense. Iowa will probably run the ball much better than State.
The fact that Iowa's had some trouble with scrambling mobile QBs makes Forcier and Robinson X factors here. You can try to practice against it, but you can't replicate the game situation. I think this will somewhat mitigate Iowa's advantage up front on D.
Miscues. I think you're right about this one. Despite his heroics, Forcier has gotten away with quite a few. Michigan will need Iowa to turn it over a couple times, I suspect.
October 7th, 2009 at 11:02 AM ^
as far as the WR's and TE's are concerned. Other than that, expect us to come in charged up and really look to smack IOWA in the mouth. I just don't see a competitor like Tate letting his team go down twice in a row.
I predict he wills us to a famous win and kick starts Heisman whispers in earnest.
October 7th, 2009 at 11:11 AM ^
Good post, but you can just get that blowout thought right out of your head. Your team just isn't built to blow out legitimate D-I opponents. There's a reason why Iowa has struggled against some marginal teams. There's also a reason why they're undefeated. This is going to be a close game as long as both teams play reasonably well.
October 7th, 2009 at 1:03 PM ^
...is lot like Lloyd Carr, but with a slightly better understanding of the modern game and with slightly less-predictable playcalling. That is why he was in the UM coaching hire discussions; he could have been Lloyd Carr v2. As we learned from Carr's last four years, sometimes being conservative works, and sometimes it blows up in your face. I am hoping for the latter on Saturday.
October 7th, 2009 at 11:17 AM ^
Your D Line may be one of the best in all of football. They drove PSU nuts after the 1st quarter and made Clark look bad. However, you almost had 2 APPY ST. horrors at home. Iowa O seems very inconsistant. I am going M 28-24.
October 7th, 2009 at 12:58 PM ^
UM's offense is still a work in progress. It seems to be all or nothing...a lot of huge plays and a lot of 3 and outs. But they are resiliant and don't seem to give up or get too flustered..they just keep plugging at it until something big pops loose. As an example, UM has scored a TD longer than 25 yards in all 5 of it's games including 10 total from 6 different guys. Add to that a Kick Off Return for a TD (against Notre Dame) and that makes for an explosive potential. My point is that Iowa shouldn't get comfortable if it is seemingly controlling the game or controlling our line. You need to put up a lot of points and don't get comfortable. KEY GUY: anyone and everyone, hard to know game-by-game.
Which brings us to our Defense. We are very suspect and holding things togther with band-aids and popsicle sticks. We are giving up a ton of yards and not discriminating against the run or pass. However, we've been good (all things being relative) in stiffening in the red zone and forcing FGs...and good at slowing teams down in the second half (only 6 pts given up in the third qtr. all year). So if IOWA is getting TD's over FG's its going to be a long day for us. KEY GUY: The corner not named D. Warren (we don't even know who that is game to game).