Objective Projection On Remaining Games
I have a computer model I call OAP - “opponent average performance”, which uses only 2019 statistical data, no preseason rankings, recruiting talent or anything subjective to measure and predict performance based on your statistics as compared to your collective opponents’ average statistics. In all 49 FBS vs. FBS games last week, it was 65% ATS and the projected spread was even closer to the final margin than Vegas in 47% of all the matchups.
I’ve been a die hard Michigan my whole life, and give you this preamble to highlight the concern, dare I say legitimate panic, that I’m feeling by looking at the numbers right now. At the risk of stating the obvious, if this team doesn’t raise their level of performance on the field, we are heading towards an absolute dumpster fire of a season. Neg away for the upcoming nut punch if you want, but if the team doesn’t improve, and all their future opponents keep performing at their current averages, here is how the remaining games are currently projected:
Michigan 29 - Rutgers 15
Iowa 22 - Michigan 14
Illinois 30 - Michigan 28 (!!!)
Penn State 31 - Michigan 17
Notre Dame 36 - Michigan 17
Maryland 31 - Michigan 24
Michigan State 25 - Michigan 15
Indiana 27 - Michigan 26
Ohio State 45 - Michigan 14
I don’t think that the season will play out like this, I think this team can raise their level of play, but I do feel like it shows how bad we have performed this season to date.
We are playing like a 3-9 team right now. I hope this post ages poorly.
For reference, here are the picks from week 4: https://cfbstatnation.com/week-4-review-oap-picks-vs-vegas/
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^
Fix your model.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:28 AM ^
It will fix itself once we fix things on the field.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^
Your model is flawed if it doesn't take into account factors like quality of talent. Good models don't simply ditch certain factors purely because they're subjective; they try to mitigate the subjective aspects of those factors.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
The question on that issue is: does the signal outweigh the noise?
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
The proof is in the pudding. If your model is hitting 65% ATS, you're doing a fine job. I think the team finally gets it at some point and things turn around, but if not 3-9 is possible.
September 23rd, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^
As a point of reference, what was it against the spread last weekend?
September 23rd, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^
There wasn’t enough 2019 data to make a projection last week.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
They'll probably lose to PSU, ND and OSU.
Maybe they beat USC in the Redbox bowl.
It is what it is.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^
USC actually has the deepest QB room in the country bc all three of their QBs would make Shea look like a JV player.
Their wide receivers are just as good as ours.
And when was the last time UM beat USC? Lol we’re like 2-5 against them historically.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^
USC played pretty well against Utah the other day, I think you're selling them short. They'd kick our ass right now.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
Maybe...probably...USC also lost to BYU, so they aren't world beaters. They seem to have mastered the "throw it up offense." Those were the only plays that worked for Michigan Saturday, so they may have something there.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
PSU, ND, OSU, MSU, Iowa, (Wisconsin)
6-6
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
This is the model I use.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
Fawk yeahhhhhh dvv dvv
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
Winner gets to hire Urban?
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:27 AM ^
Stop with your fake pessimism. You're not going to reverse jinx this thing.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:28 AM ^
Didn't we do this yesterday a couple of times, and Saturday night already?
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
This guy used a model though!
September 23rd, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^
You’ve been here for 10 years can you honestly say you expected anything else?
September 23rd, 2019 at 5:04 PM ^
Not surprised at all, but felt like complaining just the same.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^
I don't think that a season like that is completely out of the question. There was a distinct 2014 Utah game vibe this past Saturday.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
We were only down 3 against Utah at halftime. This felt more like 2014 ND or Minnesota.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^
Unfortunately the Rutgers game would be the Minnesota game in this circumstance.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
Granted I've never been accused of being Mr Sunshine around these parts but man even I think those projections are ridiculously pessimistic. I think we'll beat everybody on our schedule EXCEPT PSU & OSU and to me ND is a toss-up.
Optimistic projection 9-3
Pessimistic projection 8-4
But GTFO with 3-9. That AINT gonna happen.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
My point is only that if we keep playing like this, 3-9 is within the realm. I share your sentiment generally, just putting the on field performance to date into perspective.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
While I appreciate the work you did on this (I've got no room to talk as I haven't done anything besides for drink beer and bitch about the team) 3-9 is not in the realm of possibility. However, 7-5 certainly is.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
I hope you’re correct.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
As bad as things have looked, there is ALMOST no way to lose to the Fighting Lovie Smith’s (IL)
This week, Vegas has UM favored by 27.5 - 29 over Rutgers, more than a two touchdown difference from your model. I feel the Vegas line is much closer to what will happen Saturday than your projection. I can’t see any scenario where UM only beats Rutgers by 14 as your model suggests.
OP, does your model tell you where IL has the statistical advantages other than the final score ?
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
Michigan has a slight statistical advantage in most yardage categories but Illinois has advantages in rushing efficiency and offensive/defensive scoring efficiency. This is likely due to Michigan’s lost fumbles when in scoring position.
September 23rd, 2019 at 5:41 PM ^
Thanks OP, that makes sense and I appreciate you sharing those details. It will be interesting to share how that changes (or doesn’t) as the dataset grows.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^
You don’t pay attention much, do you.
The last six games, Michigan has lost to the spread by around 14 pts per game.
September 23rd, 2019 at 2:11 PM ^
Since 2010, Michigan is right around 43% in covering ATS.
The only year they were over 500 in covering was 2011 (8-4-1)
September 23rd, 2019 at 5:37 PM ^
Was that directed to me Jabroni? If so, F off douche. I took Army and WI, those spreads were never in doubt IMO, and I did well. Looking at the slate this week there is no chance UM doesn’t cover a -14 as the OP’s model predicts.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
As it stands right now Mgrowold, I really don't see us beating MSU. Their defense is better than Wisconsin, they're gonna give us fits. Iowa's is no slouch either.
Seeing as how we literally can't score in a whorehouse until the game is already over, I don't see it. We will probably beat Maryland, Rutgers, and Illinois.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^
What have you seen to suggest MSU can’t shut us out?
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
7-5 or 6-6 is definitely in the realm of possibility. Our defense looks really bad
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:56 PM ^
Someone get the Raid out and get rid of the roaches that have crawled out after the first loss. Ridiculous.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:29 PM ^
Did you see how Notre Dame plays defense? They punch at the ball, try to strip the ball, all at the expense of making an actual tackle. We may fumble every possession against them.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^
If we only beat Rutgers by 14 I will be very worried.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:35 AM ^
I came in here to blast this model until I saw the scores, where the games were played, and when. However, I can't see 3-9. I certainly could see 6-6 to 7-5. It seems like 8-4 would be a stretch, but that is only if our team does not improve throughout the season. So, I will go with 7-5 to 8-4 for now.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
I think we will probably beat Rutgers, Illinois, and Indiana. I think Maryland is a toss up, so I will put it in the win column. 6-6.
I don't see how we are going to score against MSU, and we simply are not in the class of OSU, ND, or even Penn State.
I have watched quite a bit of football this season, and Michigan has looked to be in a handful of the worst Power 5 teams I have seen. I think it is going to have to be one hell of a turnaround to get to something like 8-4. I would love to be wrong about this but I have not seen one thing that the team does well.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^
I don't think people round here have really watched Penn State this year. They're not very good. Not saying we'll beat them, but they're not nearly as good as the mgoboard seems to think they are.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:40 PM ^
I don't think they are particularly good.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^
I agree. It is reasonable to expect SOME improvement, and that will change the outlook.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
I can see 6- 6 as the bottom.
I can see 9 - 3 as the top.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
We are still going to be ok, but the possibility that we lose 4-5 games is pretty high.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^
As others have noted, it is quite pessimistic, but given out current level of play it makes sense that your model predicted such a terrible outcome on the season.
That being said, I could certainly see that Rutgers score being the case. Through the rest of the season, I don't see us losing to the Illini or Maryland, but Iowa, PSU, ND, MSU, Indiana, and Ohio State will all be very difficult games for us if the current trend is continued. That's just stating the obvious.
To be the optimist, I think we can go on to win 8-9 games this season. That seems to be the comfortable ceiling with this team. If we're looking at it through a pessimist's lens - things don't improve - we're looking at a 6 win season.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^
I think what the OP was trying to point out was that nobody is talking about the floor on this team. IF, big if, grant you, but if the team plays this way going forward the floor is absolutely no bowl game, whether that is 3-9 or something up to 5-7 doesn't matter IMO. You can't honestly watch that clown show and think they're going to beat MD or Iowa, both of whom at least seem competent and full of effort. ND/PSU/OSU/MSU, not a chance.
September 23rd, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^
We aren't going 3-9.
6-6 is absolute worst case scenario, and that would be because of a totally mental collapse.
Until I see otherwise, I'm guessing 7-5. Iowa is a huge game and could flip the whole season