New SP+ rankings: Michigan #11

Submitted by chunkums on October 27th, 2019 at 11:36 AM

The offense is up to #41 and the defense is #2. The offense is rising quickly.

Rudywasoffsides

October 27th, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^

 

It would be awesome if Michigan won out. Probably will not happen and may not win the BIG, but if they were to win out and finish 10-2, beating Notre Dame, MSU and osu - that would be a hell of a season in my opinion. 

 

Bodogblog

October 27th, 2019 at 2:09 PM ^

Lol at policing threads the day after a top 10 win for comments too flattering of Harbaugh. 

You're just going to have to take the L on this one.  There's a few more very unlikely chances for you this year, but you're likely going to have to wait until OSU to start up with your bullshit again. 

Your team will need to replace Dantonio, you should place your focus there 

Farnn

October 27th, 2019 at 1:19 PM ^

Mattison was the perfect DC for OSU's roster.  He coaches a solid, safe, bend but don't break defense.  When you have the superior talent that OSU has, you don't need fancy stuff to confuse offenses, just play your assignment and count on your guys beating their guys.  If you don't give up big plays, the offense needs to out scheme your defense again and again to score and odds are in your defense's favor.

When you don't have that talent advantage, you are better off with an aggressive defense going for big negative plays.  Sure you give up some big plays, but a sack or big TFL can quickly shut down a drive and kick the offense off the field.

And I think the wear down over the season was more due to lack of quality depth at Michigan, and a poor offense on the other side of the ball.  When the game stays close, you have to play your starters more while Mattison can easily pull anyone at halftime so far this year. 

Newton Gimmick

October 27th, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^

I'm hoping this year is the inverse of past years.  This time it will be OSU, not Michigan, that peaks too early, and Michigan the team that has it all come together with a great game plan.  Plus this will be OSU's (and Day's) toughest road test thus far.  

And reminder: Ryan Day has never beaten a Top 10 team!  

snarling wolverine

October 27th, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^

It's annoying though.  It seems like we're always the decided underdog in years we play OSU at home and closer to even with them when we play them on the road.  I don't care what Vegas says, home field advantage in college football is huge.  Look at the PSU, Wisconsin and ND series recently.

If we could have played them at Michigan Stadium in 2006 and 2016, we're probably in the BCS/playoff those years.  Maybe even last year, too.  That was a wobbly OSU team coming off an overtime scare at Maryland.  Coming home to the Horseshoe was exactly what they needed.    

(OTOH, if we had gone to Columbus in 2017 with John O'Korn at QB, that would have been rough...)

Jiml3901

October 27th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^

A quick google search shows that NFL teams win about 58% at home and college teams about 59%.  But that includes a lot of cup cake games for college teams, so it seems like it is lower for college teams.  I couldn't find any stats for conference games only  which would be more accurate.

I am suprised it is that high in the NFL and that college may be lower. You would think professional would be less subject to crowd noise, travel etc.

 

https://www.lineups.com/articles/how-important-is-home-field-advantage-in-the-nfl/

https://sites.google.com/site/sportsalgorithmresearch/football-statistics/home-field-advantage-college-football

snarling wolverine

October 27th, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^

I think it's apples and oranges though, as the disparity between the best and worst college teams is bigger than that between the best and worst NFL team, I think.  The NFL has some bad teams every year of course, but they're not usually Rutgers levels of inept.  College has a bunch of teams that bad every year.

If you could limit the sample to say, the top 60 college teams in a given year, I think you'd see homefield being pretty significant (more than the NFL).

Newton Gimmick

October 27th, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^

Indiana (23) is now ahead of Notre Dame (25) for state dominance

The Big 10 East has 5 teams in the Top 29 (most of any division).  The Big 10 overall has 5 of the Top 12 (almost most -- SEC has 5 of Top 13).

BlueLikeJazz

October 27th, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^

What’s crazy is that based on these numbers, Michigan is almost sure to be a much bigger favorite against MSU than Indiana. If Vegas tracks closely with this (it doesn’t always), and if the games were played today, we’d be only a 3-4 point favorite at IU and a 10-12 point favorite against MSU.

That IU game always seems to be a trap game. Going to be even more do this season.

Farnn

October 27th, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^

Is there anywhere to look at the SP+ numbers in more detail like you could before Connelly went to ESPN?  All I'm finding is his weekly list article on ESPN.

Squad16

October 27th, 2019 at 6:48 PM ^

I'm most surprised that MSU is somehow #29 in SP+. 

That game should be an easy win, but I have a feeling it'll be close/ugly. It's their Super Bowl, especially in a year like this where there isn't anything else left for them. That said, I'm confident Michigan wins as of now, I just think it'll be closer than most people expect.