Michigan's Path to the Tournament
Huge win today. Our hopes are alive, and there is now a clear path to 9 conference wins. Granted, we could easily pull a 'Savannah State' and lay an egg in one of these games, and this whole analysis is out the window. But here's how it COULD happen:
2/19 MINN - Win. 3 full days off, home cooking and a good atmosphere in Crisler leads to a victory.
2/22 @ IOWA - Win. Iowa is probably the second worst team in the Big Ten, and we had little trouble winning at home.
2/26 PU - Win. We keep it close until the second half with Manny ejected, and now we have home court and I tend to think Purdue is a bit overrated.
3/01 @ WIS - Lose. Wisconsin is a tough team to beat (as evidenced by our getting crushed in the 1st game), especially on the road. I think we'll play better than we did in that 1st game, but it won't be enough in Madison.
3/09 @ MINN -Lose. Their only home losses are to MSU and Purdue. I doubt we can sweep the season series against a solid team like Minnesota.
If all this happens, the record is now 9-9. We're probably a 7th or 8th seed, win the first round and lose the second round. 19-13 total record, with the OOC wins, that's enough to get in. I think the key game is Iowa. If we pull off the win against Minny, we have a short break and then have to travel to Iowa. Lose any of the first three games and we then have to knock out a team above us in the rankings on the road. Small margin of error, but it's doable. (Or we could go 8-10, and hope for all the Bubble teams to collapse, and for that analysis I direct you to the maniacally genius jamiemac's diaries.)
February 15th, 2009 at 7:19 PM ^
If Hummel is healthy in that game (he played, albeit with limited effectiveness, against Iowa this weekend), I wouldn't be quite so optimistic about a win there. In any case, you may be better off with a road win at Wisconsin or Minnesota than a win at home against Purdue - the road record is a significant negative on your resume (the scenario you envision puts them at 4-8).
February 15th, 2009 at 7:27 PM ^
Good post :)
But we will see how accurate your predictions are.
February 15th, 2009 at 7:49 PM ^
for the shout out.
I think 9-9 will put them in the field, so long as they dont embarass themselves in the Big 10 tourney. A 9-9 mark followed by a loss in a 6/11, 7/10, 8/9 first round game I think would knock them out......a win there and getting woodshedded in the following quarterfinal might even push them out.
I dont think they have a shot at worse than that. The best scenario I could envision is an 8-10 Big 10 mark and UM might get a bid if they can advance into the finals of the Big 10 tournament. Depending, of course, on what else is happening on the bubble....maybe getting to the semi's and losing a classic would do it.....their SOS is that good and they dont have any bad losses yet to kill them with, so it could happen.
February 15th, 2009 at 8:46 PM ^
Why are you so sure 8-10 won't do it? I've heard 8-10 teams have made it in the past, and we have great out of conference wins, and are from a top 2 RPI conference.
February 15th, 2009 at 9:04 PM ^
because that would mean a 2-3 record in these last five games. I think a lot of teams would pass Michigan if they Wolverines struggle to a losing record in their remaining games.
The outlook specifically for Michigan changes dramatically from 9-9 to 8-10.....at 8-10, they will have lost 3 of five, five of eight, seven of 11....but at 9-9, its wins in four of six and a decidedly less obscene 6-6 mark in its final 12 games.
At 8-10, Michigan had better win at least two games in Indy and get into the Big 10 semifinals. I think that would give them a chance at a bid. I think advancing to the finals would give them a bid as that would be an 11-11 record in big 10 games with a pretty good profile backing that up.
So I'm not saying it would be a lost cause, but the Wolverines will need an impressive run in the Big 10 Tourney to pull it out.
February 15th, 2009 at 8:30 PM ^
It looks like UM is battling with Utah, BYU and the random ACC team for the last few spots. Most of the other conferences seem set in who will get in, but the ACC seems to fluctuate from 4 bids to 6-7 bids depending on how that week's games played out. Personally, I don't see the wins on Miami or Utah's resumes to justify their inclusion, but a 1-point win over Gonzaga (Utah) or a Kentucky (Miami) just don't scream marque OOC win, and neither has really distinguished themselves in league play.
February 15th, 2009 at 8:54 PM ^
There's a five-some of ACC teams to keep an eye on: BC, Miami, VT, FSU and Maryland.
The best bet is 3 of those get it. But, you can see the possibility of four of those, as well as even 2 based on what happens in the next couple of weeks. The teams have a few head to heads left and games with the league's top four (Wake, Clem, UNC and Duke), so it should be interesting.
There are some exceptions to the observation that the other leagues look set.
USC in the Pac 10, KSU in the Big 12, the whole Cincy/Prov/Gtown/ND dynamic in the Big East as an example of situations where bids are undetermined and could change hands.
And, I share your MWC skepticsm. I'd be stunned if more than 2 make it out of that league, yet you're seeing 3 and, in most cases, 4 in the mocks. That'll be interesting to see if those bids change too.
I still think there's a lot to be decided, but you're onto a key fact--that being bids are becoming more scarce.
February 15th, 2009 at 9:17 PM ^
Totally agree with the general theme that bids are drying up. BTW - love your posts. I look forward to them.
I still think VT and Maryland are on the outside looking in right now. Maryland hasn't really beaten anyone outside the state of Michigan, and VT is always a crapshoot come tourney time. Of course, Maryland now goes Clemson-Duke-UNC, so that will make or break their bid hopes - 1 win and they might get in, provided they don't have Duke, part deux. Sub .500 in the ACC won't punch their ticket unless they go deep into the ACC tourney and teams like UM choke away bids. Same with VT - they do the CDU run bookended by games against FSU, and they also lack the OOC wins to make up for a mediocre ACC record. I'm just hoping that the Big 4 in the ACC take care of business.
I hope that ND's win over Louisville was an aberration and they continue their downward spiral, since an OOC win highlighted by a 1-point win over Texas in Maui certainly doesn't look very impressive for a .500 team in any conference, even the Big East.
I guess what drives me crazy is that most of these teams on the bubble seem to have the same resume - one or two bad losses, little to no success in the OOC, but mediocre conference marks that benefit from the occasional upset over a big-name team that likely overlooked them. I'm not saying that UM's resume is great, but they don't have a loss to Harvard or a 26-point shellacking at the hands of UCLA, and actually won some big games in the OOC. I think the Big 10's underwhelming national reputation (not its play this season, which makes it one of the top-2 or 3 conferences in America) will hurt UM come bid time.
February 15th, 2009 at 8:57 PM ^
Remember like 3 years ago when a Daniel Horton-led squad took down Deron Williams and the rest of the Illinois squad? I think everone in Ann Arbor had their mind set on the NCAAs. Then we choked away the last 4-5 games of the year and lost to South Carolina in the NIT championship (I think it was S.C. anyway).
I think this season will be a lot like that - only longer and more painful. I know that Duke and UCLA aren't doing us any favors by proving they are FULLY capable of choking away games at any moment (aka don't take them far in your brackets fellas).
February 15th, 2009 at 9:21 PM ^
Amaker's second to last season.
UM was 16-3, 6-2 on Feb 1. But, they went 2-6 the rest of the way to finish at .500 in league. That team had zero on its OOC resume and the league was weaker back then, so UM ought to have a better bracket fate should they get to .500.
That Illinois game game was the third to last regular season game....UM was 8-6 in the Big 10 with the win and in most mock brackets at the time.
Losses at OSU and at Crisler to Indiana closed the season put that bid in serious doubt and then a loss to NIT bound Minny in their first big 10 tourney game eliminated them.
All those losses were painful: losing to an arch rival.....falling as a favorite in the league tourney when a win could put you in.....but the final at home to IU sucked for Michigan.
UM started the game up 10-0, but IU had it tied up at half.....UM dominated the first segment of the second half, reopening a double digit lead....IU fought back...an awesome put back dunk by Petway seemed to clinch the game, but UM could not close out and IU snuck away with a win.
I was at the game and in AA all day....conventional wisdom had most people thinking going in that UM was one of the last teams in the field while IU was one of the last teams out.....the game's outcome reversed that heading into the league tournament.
While UM as upset by Minny, IU ended up getting as far as the Big 10 semis and beat Fisher and SDSU in the NCAA first round before losing to the Zags in Round 2....and, as you stated, UM got to the NIT Finals before losing to the G'Cocks.
February 15th, 2009 at 9:19 PM ^
20 wins will get us in. Anything less than that and we're probably headed to the NIT.
February 15th, 2009 at 9:33 PM ^
To get there, we need a 3-2 record in these last five games and then a third win over NW in a likely 8/9 First Round Big 10 Tourney Game.
MSU as the #1 seed in the quarterfinals....play that out as a competitive loss.
UM would be 20-13, 10-10 in Big 10 games, with a high SOS, more wins over the top 100 RPI than most bubble teams and marquee OOC wins over Duke and UCLA.
Would that do the trick do you think? Or is that 20th win over NW not impressive enough?
My take is we'd get a bid. With late season wins over Minny and Purdue, avoid a bad loss at Iowa and the quality of the Big 10 Tourney Win wont matter, so long as it's a W and we perform well in the next game.
February 15th, 2009 at 10:38 PM ^
You really think 9-9 in the conference is going to be an 8 seed? That seems surprising to me. Obviously being the 6 or 7 would be a huge advantage, both in playing either Iowa or Indiana in the first round (instead of a Northwestern team that has shown it is competitive with the rest of the conference despite it's crappy conference record) and in avoiding an MSU team that should have Morgan fully back.
Of course, Purdue will be playing Hummel in the tournament, but he's never going to be healthy this year, he'll always be a bit limited. He's going to need the whole offseason to heal up, and I almost wonder if he'll consider surgery to help the healing along depending on if there's further damage besides the publicized stress fracture -- backs are tricky things, since I've screwed mine up it's never been right and can act up at any time.
February 15th, 2009 at 10:05 PM ^
The swing game here is home against Purdue. They must hold serve at home against Minnesota, and beat a bad Iowa team on the road. They're going to have a hard time beating Wisconsin and Minnesota on the road, so they're at 2-2 there. Get the Purdue game and you're going into the B10 tourney at 19-12.
A win in the 1st round of the B10 tournament is also essential for tournament hopes. A 1st round loss, given the above scenario, puts them at 19-13 and at the mercy of the selection committee, a place I'm not really interested in being. A win puts them at 20-13 at the worst, with two wins against Duke and UCLA sitting there, sticking out like a sore thumb. I'd have to like our chances there.
OTOH, a 2-3 finish brings us home at 18-13, pre-Big 10 tournament. I would have to think Michigan needs 2 wins in the tournament in this scenario. A first round loss sends them to the NIT at 18-14, and I'm not so sure that 19-14 with a 1st round win is good enough, either.
Anything less than 2 more wins in the regular season gives this team a home game in the 1st round of the NIT, obviously, barring them winning the Big 10 tournament.
February 16th, 2009 at 9:51 AM ^
I think that's a bigger determiner than record at this point. I don't see the Tourney taking more than like 6 Big Ten teams, so if we miss that line I don't think 8-10 v. 9-9 makes a difference.