Meta: The path to 30
Back in February, MGoUser mistersuits posted a diary titled, "Remaining MBB Games: The Path to 30." It received 10 up votes and no down votes. Apparently, the rest of you aren't as superstitious as me.
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/remaining-mbb-games-path-30
I was very anxious about the jinx-inducing possibilities of that post - the whole, "don't count your chickens before they're hatched," thing. Well, we reached 30 wins today and I think we have a potential replacement for The_Knowledge in mistersuits.
He had us reaching 30 wins by getting to the elite 8. The Wisconsin and Penn State games forced us to advance to the final 4 to reach 30. According to mistersuits, this ties our highest non-vacated win-total ever.
for pointing this out, mistersuits.
March 31st, 2013 at 11:12 PM ^
This might be an OK place to share the hypothetical paths, using Massey's numbers from matchup simulation (Michigan and Louisville are favored), remaining for Michigan to win 31, I would imagine:
| Michigan / Syracuse | Louisville/ Wichita St. | EST. PROB. of NC Matchup |
| 0.52 | 0.79 | 41.080% |
| 0.52 | 0.21 | 10.920% |
| 0.48 | 0.79 | 37.920% |
| 0.48 | 0.21 | 10.080% |
As for win totals regardless of which ones were vacated, we won 30 in 1988-89, and 31 in 1992-93. I believe these are the only times we've reached the 30-win mark, but I could be wrong there.
March 31st, 2013 at 10:10 PM ^
This reminds me, apparently yesterday Kenpom had Florida with a 31% probability of winning the national title and Michigan with 5%.
March 31st, 2013 at 10:56 PM ^
I'm gonna guess that after today Florida's chances took a major hit.
March 31st, 2013 at 11:46 PM ^
30 wins - after the Ed Martin scandal - I didn't think we could ever get back to 30 wins. Sit and think about that for a moment. 30 wins in college hoops is elite status (don't mind Gonzaga) - not many schools get that number.