It’s Just Talent
Talent and mistakes, but mostly talent, and if you have less talent you can’t make mistakes.
People are frustrated after an 8th straight loss and looking for things to blame - I totally get it. The culprit, however, is not Jim, it’s not Don Brown, it’s not scheme, it’s not any of our coaches, or desire to win, or culture, etc. etc. It’s just a team with unreal talent playing a team with only very good talent (2nd in the composite compared to 11th, to be explicit). Depending on your view of things this will either deliver you deeper into BPONE or bring a level of acceptance (or both I guess), but Michigan has done everything it can do to compete and win this game outside of closing the talent gap.
As for whether we ever close the talent gap and become regular winners of The Game, well, that’s on the administration. Are we willing to make more admissions and academic standards exceptions, including ones that would allow taking JUCOs? Are we willing to support a comprehensive bagmen system to compete for the elite kids that want that kind of compensation? When the answers to those questions become yes, then we will have a chance to be a top 5 program. As long as the answers are no, we will be in the 7-12 range.
I love Jim as a coach. I think he’s a fantastic football coach, and I think he’s done literally everything he can do above the table to make us great. We have a great staff of coaches, we have great facilities and support staff, we recruit hard as hell and explore transfers aggressively, and we think outside the box to get ourselves advantages against programs who play money games. I think we need to stay put with this staff. It’s just talent - we need to be top 6 or 7 in the composite to compete with who we want to compete with, or we need to accept 10-2/9-3 every year, and one or two magical 11-1 seasons under Jim.
Michigan is faced with a simple decision: join the so called “cheaters” to regularly compete for championships or accept being in the second tier of top programs and having a hard ceiling. I think federal NLI legislation would be a great boon for our program, but until then, it is what it is.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:05 AM ^
It's talent and sloppy play. Michigan is sloppy under Harbaugh and it has cost us winnable games.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:16 AM ^
Better talent tends to execute better too - that’s part of talent. Harbaugh certainly doesn’t run a sloppy ship. But yeah, like I said, you can’t have this talent gap AND make mistakes. Can’t drop a snap in the redzone, can’t take that offsides, can’t inexplicably drop ~5 good balls in a row against a team that wakes up better than you.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:22 AM ^
I mostly agree with you. Everyone was crying about the OSU dribbling the ball without pause - that happens to them, not due to luck, but because elite players have elite hand eye coordination. DPJ could do that too.
Even so, I think there's something intrinsic to Harbaugh's coaching style that causes his players to choke against OSU. Like he builds it up so much that they overthink everything and then make stupid mistakes.
Harbaugh certainly doesn’t run a sloppy ship.
That's 100% untrue and there are numerous examples - including the MSU punt loss.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:34 AM ^
Don’t conflate isolated strategic mistakes and player errors with systemic sloppiness. Jim runs a tight, disciplined program. That’s not the same as having an error-free tenure.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
Two back to back roughing the kicker penalties against Iowa. Goal line fumble against OSU. You guys might not like it, but it's a fact - Michigan is sloppy under Harbaugh.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
Again, individual player error =/= a sloppy program. A QB with a broken collarbone fumbling a snap and Iowa's punter being so unathletic that he front flips himself into the helmet of Michigan's best LB ever are not evidence of a sloppy program. Those are just one-off player errors. They happen everywhere.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
It’s not one off player errors when it happens multiple times a game, for multiple games a season, over five seasons.
I wasn’t even talking about the Wilton fumble - the fact that there are so many to choose from proves my point.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
Simple to me. The coach is the leader and head of the team. He makes 5-6 boneheaded decisions a game and sloppy in his game management, why do we assume his players won’t do the same? Players are a pupil of their coach and their discipline/fundamentals/attention to detail. Some things can be fluky and rare, but when it happens over and over again, no fluke. Product of your coach.
Sorry I know several of you don’t want to be honest that Harbaugh might not be the savior to get us over the hump. So we come up with as many excuses as we can (move the game/we can’t beat them, we need to cheat to compete, gotta recruit better, well duh gotta win some games you shouldn’t to get kids excited to play for you). Our recruiting is good enough right now.
I think we are in a tough spot though . He’s good enough to get us 8-10 a year. Unfortunately, we can risk it to get to 10-12 and Championships we want, or we can go backwards and basically be MSU. It isn’t an easy answer. Elite coaches aren’t just sitting out there waiting for Michigan to call. Rhule and Venables (guys I like) are still a gamble. Hard questions. But, anyone thinking Harbaugh doesn’t come with several flaws (not just OSU thing, this is in general) you’re kidding yourself.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
Michigan most is definitely not a tight ship on the field, they frequently make dumb mistakes, and no I don't believe that is due to the talent of the player. That's about repetiton and discipline.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
I think it's spillover from the Loins.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
There is an art to coaching that is counter-intuitive...and clearly has been missing under Coach Harbaugh's tenure. Michigan has less talent...it also has enough talent to compete better at a higher level than has been taking place. Otherwise, I do not have any suggestions for change-Jim is the best off-field coach in college football-as far as I know. What are the priority parameters???
December 2nd, 2019 at 12:17 AM ^
You really think Dobbins having an oblong ball bounce directly back into his hands is due to elite hand-eye coordination? If so, then the fact he let a ball slip out of his fingers due to, at best, a glancing strike shows what - weak hand strength? Poor ball control? It goes both ways.
As for the rest, I've been hearing about sloppy ship crap for years and yet Michigan had 3 lost fumbles all of last season, then this year had a horrible rash of them, then have turned the ball over I believe 3 times in the past 7 games. They also somehow managed to average the most yards per play (by a full yard) on the season against the #1 defense in the country. Again, Michigan isn't as good as Ohio State, but it isn't because of some bullshit intrinsic quality of a head coach who apparently infected the past 20 years of Michigan football such that they've gone 3-17 over that span despite only coaching the last 5 seasons.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
Yeah the kids really tightened up as the game went on. The pressure started to get to them. I'll say this, Harbaugh has certainly had some missteps since taking over the program but I would just as soon stay the course with him in control then take a shot in the dark at an unknown or little known coach. There's no guarantee that any new coach is going to fair better and they could end up fairing worse. The offense showed positive steps as did the defense this season just need to keep going after higher profile recruits. They need to win whatever Bowl game they end up in. That will go along ways towards building momentum for next season.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
I agree with you re replacing Harbaugh. He’s a good, not elite, coach who’s going to field a pretty consistent team that beats who we should beat, loses to the elite, and floats around at the PSU/Franklin level.
That wasn’t what any of us expected, but we should probably come to grips with it after year five.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
Harbaugh absolutely runs a sloppy undisciplined program on the field. There are numerous facts to back this up over 5 years. From penalties to blown coverages to taking TOs before the game to kids not running on and off the field, to players being allowed to wear a hoodie with an opposing teams coach on it.
December 1st, 2019 at 5:20 PM ^
What did I miss about a hoodie?
December 1st, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
They tightened up because they realized the D could not stop OSU. The O understood they had to score a ton, and started to press.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:39 AM ^
It’s the talent that makes the sloppy plays. I mean, DPJ is a 5-star kid who makes 5-star plays most games, but then drops three straight against OSU. Shea is a 5-star kid who is faltering because of a few bad plays a game. Nico, the same. Bell, drops the easier ones.
Yet, those offensive errors would be minimized by more talent on defense. Metellus is not a star. He was this year’s Watson. Ambry and Hill did well against the WRs.
Glasgow is not talented. He’s a smart guy with a motor. Though I admire him, he should’ve been benched with Gil this entire year. Hudson is a strong safety. His talent was misused. Kemp and Dwum are both under tackles, and we had no NT.
Yet, this defensive line kept Fields in control better than other teams (I’ve seen most OSU games for my wife is a Buckeye). Our talent gap in the middle of d-line and at second and third level of defense was what kill us against talented offenses like Wisconsin, Penn State and OSU. We need interior run stuffers and LBs that can cover the middle and fill in running lanes.
We also need to run a defense that puts our most talented on the field—rather than a scheme that has obvious weaknesses exploited by the talent gap. Mazi and Hinton should’ve been playing next to a rotation of Dwum and Kemp (dumber after the shoe incident).
December 1st, 2019 at 9:09 AM ^
Agreed.
What we saw in MSU vs Michigan this year is basically the same in Michigan vs OSU. Talent gap is large, so absent a lot of mistakes, the team with more talent will win.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:10 AM ^
The talent gap is there, but I think it's closer than people are suggesting. Michigan was good at most positions, but weak at DT this year. They did their best to scheme around it, but you can't hide your weak points against Ohio State. Our front four couldn't get it done without help. When you give help you open yourself up in other areas.
Freshman DTs are bad. Next year a couple guys should start to break through.
It's tough to find players who can handle Michigan's academics, have elite athleticism, and aren't looking to get paid.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:09 AM ^
Does OSU rely on JUCOS? Is there any evidence that they have lower academic standards for athletes?
The talent disparity does not account for a 3-4 TD gap. Our guys have choked HARD in this game the last two years. Sorry, but that is on Jim.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:20 AM ^
Is there any evidence that they have lower academic standards for athletes?
Justin Fields doesn’t have a single in-person class. He can literally do his schoolwork in the football facilities.
When the talent gap is this wide, the better team just wears you down. This game was tight until the fumbled snap and the offsides, and then tight again for a second in the fourth quarter. As more snaps are played, better talent separates, especially when one teams OL is just paving the opposing DL. Those margins of defeat are not entirely unexpected.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:24 AM ^
This game was tight until the fumbled snap and the offsides
Yes. Sloppy play.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:25 AM ^
That's not evidence, it's an anecdote without context. Further, OSU has been at or close to their highest yard totals of the season vs. UM the last two years. Kind of blows your "it's just talent" thesis out of the water.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:31 AM ^
Ha, I think you’re confused as to the definitions of anecdote and evidence. Pointing to the ability to take all online courses is evidence of a looser academic environment. Pointing to simple yardage totals in two games out of 26 is anecdotal.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:45 AM ^
Do you know that Michigan has never had a player who took all online classes? That it is remarkably unique in today's college football?
You're saying "it's just talent" yet OSU doesn't rack up those yard totals against teams that everyone would agree doesn't have Michigan's talent. So. . .it's not just talent. Are you actually suggesting these routs were flukes, even though they occurred in back-to-back years?
December 1st, 2019 at 9:54 AM ^
It is just talent. Period. You did watch the game right?
December 1st, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
What a captivating argument.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:23 AM ^
The academic stuff is nonsense. UM recruits the same players as OSU. The players at UM have unbelievable academic support and all they have to do is fog a mirror to pass.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
Are you actually suggesting these routs were flukes, even though they occurred in back-to-back years?
No, my point is exactly the opposite: these results will be the norm until the talent disparity is cut in half. The exception will be when, if ever, we get a lot of luck and the perfect storm like Auburn got yesterday.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:40 AM ^
Auburn has benefitted from the "perfect storm" 3 times in the last 7 Iron Bowls. How do close the luck gap with them?!?
What garbage.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^
Yesterday, Bama’s backup QB threw a 100 yard pick-six in which the WR wasn’t looking and the ball went directly into the DB’s hands. Auburn has also had multiple years with 8 or fewer wins in the past 5 years. Yes, those games have much more luck involved
December 1st, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^
Also, the motherfucking Kick Six, maybe the most famous fluke play in college football history. That's how you beat talent gaps against juggernauts - historical foibles.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:28 PM ^
Auburn was TIED with Bama when that play happened, doofus. It was like a 60-yard attempt; that game was headed for overtime. Michigan hasn't even come within 20 points of being in such a late game position against OSU in 3 of Harbaugh's 5 years.
I made the Auburn "luck" argument sarcastically. You are so fucking deluded that you are actually taking it and running. Just wow.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:21 AM ^
Their qb takes online classes you dumb fuck.
This is not on Jim, stfu.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:29 AM ^
This is a good point. Even if Michigan/OSU have the same entrance thresholds for players, players at UM are generally expected to at least pretend to take a reasonably normal course load (I had a few of Harbaugh's players in my classes). THAT, more than bag men or anything else, is why we struggle with recruiting.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:34 AM ^
So does yours. You are beyond stupid if you don't realize that all Div I teams use these programs. Just dumb.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:48 AM ^
You don't ever have the space to call someone a dumb fuck. You're Mineral King.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:21 AM ^
Talent gap is huge. Combine that with the fact that they always bring their A game against us, and the outcome is pretty predictable. I just posted this in another thread, but this discussion isn't complete without some facts:
OSU's current roster has 13 five-stars and 47 four-stars.
Our current roster has 4 five-stars and 36 four-stars.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:48 AM ^
Alabama has 11 five stars and 58 four stars on their roster. Auburn has 3 five stars and 43 four stars. Auburn has won their rivalry game 2 out of the last 3.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:37 AM ^
Auburn also needed a bowl victory against Memphis to not have a losing season in Harbaugh’s first year. Their record since Harbaugh has been here: 7-6, 8-5, 10-3, 8-5, 9-3 (this year). I am fine not being Auburn. Can you imagine if Jim needed a bowl victory over some MAC team in order to not finish with a losing record? Yeah, I’m sure this board would be just fine with that
December 1st, 2019 at 2:09 PM ^
1. Memphis is not in the MAC
2. At least they manage to beat their rival once and a while
3. Auburn won the SEC in 2017
We pretty much are Auburn minus the rival wins and conference title, so there you go.
December 1st, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
As far as the most important position yesterday: Did 5* Tua play or 3* Jones for Bama? Did 5* Fields play or 3* Chugunov for OSU? Those games were decided by the presence of absence of 5* QBs.
In general, though, Auburn is more able to pull out wins if the game is close. They frequently get smoked by 14-30, but then they find a way to grab a win every once in a while.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^
I realize Auburn does better in their rivalry game than we do, but I'm not sure what the takeaway is. Hire Gus Malzahn I guess?
December 1st, 2019 at 11:29 AM ^
Sorry, I thought I was being pretty clear. Auburn has about the same recruiting gap with Alabama that we have against OSU, yet they manage to remain competitive in their rivalry game.
December 1st, 2019 at 2:37 PM ^
I understand that. Take it a step further: tell me how we can become Auburn.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:31 AM ^
Yeh, here comes cheating and academic BS which is just excuses by a program getting their teeth kicked in.
I'm still waiting for the team to show up that semi-god Don Brown issued his "they better watch out now statement' a few weeks ago about. And should we forget about Chase cracking nuts in Ohio Stadium or our kids showing up before the game last year in their "revenge tour" shirts pissing off the OSU coaches and players. The guarantees. And I'll never forget motor-mouth Metellus trying to chase down PSU and OSU WRs that blew by him this year. Meanwhile, OSU shuts up every year and kicks our teeth in while the rest of the CF world rolls in laughter.
Could somebody please take charge. I guess that's too much to ask. I've said it once and I'll say it again: He's no Bo - not even close
December 1st, 2019 at 9:39 AM ^
It’s not BS or an excuse, because I’d like us to play on the same level as those programs. Pay kids, I don’t give a shit. It’s not an insult from me to try to gain some moral high ground in losing - it’s a suggestion to our program to pay the price to win.
Also Bo could have 200 guys on scholarship and played in a Big Ten that didn’t include Penn State and never had a good MSU program when he was here, so let’s cool it there. Don’t ignore the structural differences in the game at Bo’s time just to disparage Jim.
December 1st, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^
So losing to PSU who apparently has the worst coach in the nation according to some of you and Wisconsin also a talent gap?
Michigan should only expect losses from out of conference opponents and OSU. That’s it. Harbaugh sucks on the road and next year will be a repeat of 2017 since all of Michigan’s tough games are on the road. He has been losing to the 3 hardest teams on his schedule for 3 years straight now. The excuses are astounding.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
So, what’s your proposal? Fire Harbaugh because he hasn’t done it in 5 years in a time when the talent disparity in CFB teams is at an all time high because some pay and others don’t?
Harbaugh needs to improve, but the cliff jumpers who want a new coach every few ears are dooming this program to perennial mediocrity