How long should a coach have to build a program before getting Weised?
Oregon State's HC Mike Riley was on Colin Cowturd's show today and made the case that a college coach should have at least 5 years to mold a program. A coach needs to have at least his first recruiting class to graduate before assessing the program. Weis fit the bill perfectly. 5 season and he wasn't able to get it done. Hopefully RichRod will have all the pieces in place by year 4.
Go Blue.
December 2nd, 2009 at 10:21 AM ^
I don't think that there is a magic number of years that a coach needs to mold a program. For example, the next ND coach will be coming into a situation where, despite losing some key players, the cubpoard is fully stocked. ND is littered with 4 and 5 star players ranging from freshmen to seniors. If Weis did anything well, it was recruiting. So, if the new coach comes in there and goes 3-9 in year one and 5-7 in year 2, I think that there would be some justification for the fans making a run on South Bend Torch and Pitchfork.
On the other hand, for a coach that is coming into a situation where there is a real lack of talent at key positions (perhaps a situation where they are starting a walk-on QB in year one and a few walk ons in the secondary in year two), I do not think that it is unreasonable to take the first two, and perhaps even three, years and ignore the record, instead focusing on where the team is heading. In this situation, if the coach is bringing in talent, maintaining the general conduct standards of the team and developing his talent, then I think that 4 years is reasonable. A prime example of this would be Harbaugh at Stanford, who had losing records during his first two years, but in his third year (when the players that he recruited for his system were not frosh and sophs), he pulled off a damn impressive season. Obviously, this example would argue in favor of Michigan giving RR at least 2 more years.
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:03 PM ^
That'll really be dependent on who goes pro. They could be starting over with offensive talent next year. And we already know their defense is abominable.
So, yeah, if they win a lot of games with a new starting QB next year throwing to new receivers, it's not going to look good.
December 2nd, 2009 at 11:19 AM ^
If things aren't progressing after 3 it's time to admit a mistake. By 5 it's obvious if it's the right or wrong choice.
December 2nd, 2009 at 11:41 AM ^
Five years. And RR may accomplish it as early as next year, though I agree with most that 2011 will be the year when it is possible to win the Big Ten and compete for a slot in the MNC game. There are two obvious covert questions here: "how will RR do next year" and "should he be fired?"
UM only has to improve enough to beat Purdue, MSU, and Illinois to get to eight games, and if they beat Wisky and/or Iowa at home, that's nine or ten. Add an upset against OSU, and we could be looking at eleven.
The defense finally "got it" against OSU, and the offense will be better as the QB position gets older, deeper, and more experienced. The entire fanbase has been traumatized by the last two years, and that often has an effect on one's perception. Sometimes we forget that this is still UM and RR is still RR. If things go right, the team could have a quantum leap next year. At any rate, I think they will win at least eight.
And if they win eight, there is no way anyone could argue that RR deserves to be "Weised."
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:08 PM ^
First, lets not get crazy here. It was hardly a total rebuild job. We weren't coming off a half dozen losing seasons. Were there some positions that were pretty bare, and a lack of depth? For sure. But we weren't working with Indiana talent here either.
Second, the fact that U-M is U-M and Rich Rod is supposed to be Rich Rod actually works against your prior point.
HOWEVER, I do think it should be fairly easy to jump to 8 wins by flip-flopping those games (unfortunately, that should have been the case this year), and entirely agree, barring any major humiliations that are just not deemed tolerable or something horrible of the sort, anyone who's screaming for heads with an 8 win season would be on the fringe. It's when you get to 7 or 6 that who and how come into play, and it becomes dicey.
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:21 PM ^
Depends on the level of support from the administration, media, and fanbase. Depends on how radical the change is with the new coach. It depends on how long it takes for the coach to get his type of players on the team. It depends on how skillful the coach is at enacting institutional, and perhaps even cultural, change. It depends on the expectations people have of the program. It depends...on a lot of things.
In short, it depends.
December 2nd, 2009 at 4:28 PM ^
4/5 years.