Heisman betting question
I was looking at the Heisman odds on a few sites and saw Stroud at +175 and Corum at +600. I am not much of a gambler but to me that looks like an opportunity for a nice hedge. I realize for some Michigan fans betting on any OSU players is a non-starter, but from a pure E(V) standpoint:
1) I think it's too late for anyone besides Hooker to win over Stroud or Corum
2) I think that UM-OSU will be the biggest game of the last week (and possibly regular season).
3) The game features two of the three leading candidates, both of whom have insulated themselves to a meh performance on 11/26 by building up serious stat lines. While Hooker has a great line of his own, the fact that Tennessee won't be in the SEC title game and instead will be playing weak opponents will likely do little to help his chances
4) The odds on Stroud are long enough that you could cover most losses from a heavy bet on Corum.
5) Taking this all in, the only way the field (ie Hooker) beats Stroud/Corum is by significant injury to either/both over the next 2 weeks
Am I missing something in my assumptions or is this a decent strategy?
November 14th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
I think you'll need to account for opportunities in big games. As you mentioned, OSU vs UM is going to elevate one of Stroud or Corum and bring the other down to reality unless both go off like gangbusters, which is also possible. The OSU vs UM winner also allows their best player to keep playing in the B1G championship and the CFP.
Sidenote - I think the Heisman has become a glorified QB award and since football seems to favor explosive passing attacks vs methodical rushing offenses, I'm not sure when we'll see a non-QB prospect win it in the near future. Since 2000, 18 QBs have won the award.
November 14th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
well you can win it as a non-QB if you're a running back........from Alabama.
November 14th, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
Hendon Hooker will be the 2022 Peyton Manning.
November 14th, 2022 at 11:55 AM ^
Wow! Randy Moss, Charles Woodson, Payton Manning and Ryan Leaf, which one of these is not like the others?
November 14th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
Charles - he has a Heisman trophy and has a wine label.
November 14th, 2022 at 12:25 PM ^
Moss is wearing sunglasses...... indoors 😎
November 14th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
I think you have something here, Niels. Nothing is a sure thing, but I don't think Hooker gets it after that turd of a game he put up at Georgia.
The negative - while I do like $, I have a hard time putting money on a Buckeye as part of the hedge.
November 14th, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^
I think Stroud's odds are pretty fair, but I think Corum is more than a 6-1 longshot. Him winning would basically require (1) us beating OSU, (2) us winning the B1G Championship, (3) Corum having big games in both, and (4) nobody else stepping up to win it. None of those are particularly unlikely on their own, but it's a heck of a parlay.
Hooker is going to finish with a couple easy games (South Carolina, Vandy), and he's currently a pretty significant favorite over Corum. It's tough to see Hooker slipping up significantly, and the QB of a resurgent 11-1 Tennessee team with good rushing and passing numbers is a pretty compelling story. Corum can step up and grab it as described above, but if we beat OSU, he would still need to put up sufficient numbers to pass Hooker and whatever Hooker does in the next 2 games.
In my mind, if OSU beats us, Stroud wins. The voters are familiar with him from last year, and OSU would almost certainly be an undefeated playoff team in that scenario, and he has good numbers. If we beat OSU, then it'll come down to whether Corum carried us (150+ yards and 2-3 TDs in both the OSU game and the B1G championship) or whether he was just a piece of the puzzle. In the latter scenario, I think Hooker is the favorite.
November 14th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
I think what Corum has going in his favor right now, or what at least helps level the playing field and keeping him in serious contention, is that no one has had the proverbial "Heisman Moment" yet.
No Johnny Manziel bobbling the snap, scooting around and making something out of nothing on the road at Alabama. No RGIII throwing a dart that bounces off of two separate players and into a receiver's hand in stride against a marquee opponent. No Lamar Jackson leapfrogging defenders. Basically, there has been no play (yet) by any of the serious contenders that's gotten everyone talking and that no one can shut up about. Usually when that happens, that puts that player so far ahead of the pack that the trophy is pretty much their's to lose at that point.
If OSU wins next week, I agree with you in that the trophy is probably going to Stroud. Its a QB-driven award these days. But if Michigan wins next week and Corum is a huge reason as to why (if not THE reason), and if he has an extremely memorable play or two, you really need to consider giving it to him, because at that point no one else will have separated themselves and conveyed why they deserve it.
Hooker already put up a big fat smelly turd against Georgia. I don't think he's really in this thing anymore unless the Michigan/OSU game is extremely ugly and neither Corum nor Stroud play well. Which I don't really see as a likely outcome. Its more likely that both of them play well and then it just comes down to who won The Game.
November 14th, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^
I think it helped to have RG3 say "heisman frontrunner" about 30 times on ABC
November 14th, 2022 at 3:19 PM ^
That's a really good point, but I think it cuts both ways. As you noted, Stroud and Corum will have much more of a spotlight over the next couple weeks than Hooker will. But if neither Stroud nor Corum provide that "Heisman moment," then Hooker's 441 total yards and 5 TDs in Tennessee's win over Alabama are the single most impressive performance in a big game this season.
November 14th, 2022 at 11:46 AM ^
Rod Moore
November 14th, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
If you bet both Stroud and Corum, you will then make it a cinch for Hooker to win. It's just the way the universe works. Also, be careful what underwear you wear on gameday.
November 14th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
Michael Barrett isn't allowed on the ballot.
If so, he would have already won.
November 14th, 2022 at 12:24 PM ^
I heard they'll be changing the name of the award to the Barrett shortly.
November 14th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
There are a couple of factors worth considering.
One is - regional favorite / visibility. I could see a scenario where Stroud / Corum split the vote from the Midwest, and possibly in other regions of the country. And, those who get a lot of their "news" from SEC country - with a predisposition to the SEC as a conference - those votes would go to Hooker.
The point about the "QB award" has a great deal of relevance, and - the impact / role of Hooker on Tennessee's resurgence, despite laying an egg against Georgia, just increases his notoriety and visibility.
I believe that Corum leads the country in several categories, including scoring. But, in this day - with so much focus on the passing game and QB play, it might be too much to overcome. It's not too different from the CFP Selection Committee.
Oh, does "leadership" have any influence on the Heisman? Only the voters know.
November 14th, 2022 at 1:55 PM ^
The QB thing is what I come back to. There's a definite risk that a Michigan win eliminates Stroud but isn't enough to put Corum over the top, giving the win to probably Hooker, less likely Caleb Williams or, I guess, Maye (it would seem like Bryce Young is out of it at this point).
At very least, I think Corum would need not only a win over OSU, but a flashy performance to have a legit chance to win (he's probably pretty close to locking up a ticket to NYC at least). For better or worse, I just don't see a Nebraska type performance (28 carries for 162 yards, 1 TD, long of 12) cutting it. Absolutely solid, and it'd be different if this were the 90s, but it just didn't have the flash to get past the ingrained QB bias. Feel like he'd need at least one of a ton of yards, a bunch of TDs (similar to Haskins last year), or somewhere in the middle on both with a couple of explosive, highlight reel plays.
November 14th, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^
Storm, unfortunately, I agree with you.
A Biakabutuka like performance is what Blake probably needs in a couple of weeks.
It's unclear to me what time Tennessee's season finale will be - when they play Vandy. But, if it's at noon - my guess is, more eyes are going to be on the game in Columbus than the one in Nashville.
I certainly hope Blake's invited to the ceremony.
November 14th, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^
Think you're forgetting about Drake Maye QB for UNC has a decent shot at winning.
November 14th, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^
He's going to have to smoke Clemson in order to have a shot. They've played a terrible schedule, and not been all that impressive with 2 point win over App St, 7 pt win over Ga State, 3 point win over a garbage Miami team, 3 point win over Duke, and a 2 point win over Wake Forest. They got beat soundly by Notre Dame. If they lose to Clemson, it's over. Good player, but not going to pass any of these guys.
November 14th, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^
Lol. In a world of Stroud, Hooker, Williams, the 4th best QB from the 5th best conference isnt winning it.
November 14th, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^
I don't think Corum has much of a chance to win, personally. Michigan's OLine has been so dominant that I feel voters will view him as partially a product of the system. I mean, Edwards is averaging 6.7 yards a carry, which may lead some to further conclude that it's less Corum and more the line. Not saying that is or isn't the case, just pointing out how some voters might view it. Not that that has hurt Bama running backs in the past, but this award does seem to favor QBs now. He has a shot, but he's going to need some explosive, long plays, which he hasn't had many of this year.
November 14th, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^
What are odds on Michigan money line to beat OSU?
I wonder if you could take that and Stroud to win Heisman, with a chance both could hit.
November 14th, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
Eddie George did win in 1995 despite he and OSU getting thoroughly outplayed by Biakabutuka in The Game...
November 14th, 2022 at 3:13 PM ^
To be fair he won that award by week 9.
November 14th, 2022 at 2:07 PM ^
Good things happen when we beat OSU:
1. Win the Heisman
2. BIG Championship
3. CFP appearance
November 14th, 2022 at 2:15 PM ^
I think Corum should be the favorite right now and I would def take +600 but BetMGM doesn't offer a bet on Heisman odds and I'm too lazy and poor to open an account on another book. Stroud has not been impressive to me, especially when you think how many catches Marvin Harrison has made with his butthole and armpits this year and it becomes even less impressive. I hope the line eats Stroud alive and knocks Harrison's block off. GO BLUE!
November 14th, 2022 at 6:45 PM ^
“Butthole and armpits”, that was some funny shit. I got a good belly laugh. Well done.
November 14th, 2022 at 3:52 PM ^
Corum should return punts vs. OSU.
CHANGE MY MIND
November 14th, 2022 at 6:49 PM ^
That thought crossed my mind a few weeks ago. If it happened there’d be zero chance Ohio State would give him a returnable punt.
November 14th, 2022 at 3:53 PM ^
I fucked up.
I was planning to put $100 on Blake to start the season.
+ 12,000
The hedge in that would be good now and probably getting better.
If Blake has a monster game on Columbus he has a serious chance.
November 14th, 2022 at 4:02 PM ^
Me too- I saw those odds earlier and thought I should give it a whirl. I wanted to put $ on Edwards too - he was at 20,000-1. Next year...