Film Review - Michigan vs OSU, Purdue, and TCU
A little football content for the week. Below are posts reviewing Michigan's games against Ohio State, Purdue (1st half) and TCU.
Re: TCU Game. I've been asked many times why Michigan didn't run the QB more. I've seen insinuations that the coaching staff didn't take TCU seriously and were holding onto things for Georgia. I don't agree with that take. This game plan was tailored for TCU, lots more hard play action than Michigan has featured this year. Lots of plans for 21 personnel, with various ways of inserting the FB.
While it was not the gameplan I had anticipated, it seemed clear at least early that Michigan's goal was to pick on the outside safeties in TCU's scheme, both in how they fit the run, and how they play the pass. Typically, teams attack odd fronts like TCU's at the C-gaps (off tackle), Michigan seemed to want to poke holes in the B-gaps and make the safeties wrong. Once they struggled with that, they did attempt to move to more gap schemes that attack off tackle, but really struggled with how to handle the playside LBs.
As far as QB run game:
I’ve been asked about why UM didn’t run the QB more vs TCU, especially early. It’s a fair question, as Q run can be a challenge for the type of D TCU runs, and then of course you saw it a bit early vs UGA and it seemed to look easy.
— Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) January 15, 2023
I’ve skated around the ? for most part…
Here’s my interpretation.
— Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) January 15, 2023
While UM had a fair number of Q option schemes, they didn’t major in it. Most of its success was based on very obvious reads because they could pound with traditional run. When presented cloudy reads, it tended to struggle a bit.
TCU’s 3-3 defense presents a lot of cloudy reads, and UM struggled particularly against soft edges (no well defined DE on edge). I think that particularly worried UM and so they didn’t view it as a good trade to rep it a bunch in bowl prep as one of the major things to work on
— Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) January 15, 2023
I would say the better answer for TCU’s D is not Q read, but straight Q run.
— Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) January 15, 2023
That was a much more limited part of the UM O this year. While they ran it a little, it was much more high leverage downs. It is something you could rep in bowl practice and get solid at, but…
While JJ is a good athlete and solid runner, I don’t really view him as a pure running Q. 1) He isn’t built for it. 2) He doesn’t really have the footwork to pick his way on straight runs often. ie he’s more Devin Garner than Denard as a runner.
— Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) January 15, 2023
You can improve that, but it takes reps. I think you could make an argument they should have.
— Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) January 15, 2023
I’m guessing UM wanted to emphasize other parts, namely down field pass and play action pass, both of which were more emphasized in this game and had success. And require JJ reps
They did put some in, but it showed up later or in high leverage situations (2PC attempts, during their come back). The runs they did have early that may have had reads attached did not have clear reads because it usually had people working from depth, so it was mostly off.
— Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) January 15, 2023
I think it’s always easy to second guess. More Q run certainly could have helped. But I think especially with Schoon, they probably felt pretty strong about RB run game from 12 P and play action and down field passing with it. Sometimes you don’t get it right. But 528 yards O…
— Space Coyote (@SpaceCoyoteBDS) January 15, 2023
February 21st, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
Thanks for the nuanced take. I was of the camp that they should have run JJ more. But as you mentioned, time is not infinite to do everything well. TCU played way above their level and won. Tip our hat and move on.
As an aside. I was out having lunch at a local eatery wearing my UM beanie. Then I left my table to pay at the counter. The guy who was serving asks me straight up, "Why did you lose to TCU? We didn't like the NC game. It should have been you guys."
I mean what can I say :) We didn't like that either.
February 21st, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
The criticism isn’t that they should run it if they didn’t practice it. It’s why the fuck was it not worked on during the season when running through the softest schedule Michigan has played since 1905. It’s not like a straight ahead 12 personnel run game would have done anything but die against Georgia either.
They had an entire season to work on taking the offense to the next level to be able to compete for a national championship and instead were content to play incredibly conservatively throughout the season because they were more scared of making a mistake than raising the ceiling.
February 21st, 2023 at 3:10 PM ^
Maybe this year they take that jump. :)
Completely agree with your take.
February 21st, 2023 at 3:32 PM ^
Wishful thinking
February 21st, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
Thanks for posting these. You always give great breakdowns for someone like me that doesn't know the nuances of particular plays.
I'm really interested in hearing more about this from the TCU game:
they did attempt to move to more gap schemes that attack off tackle, but really struggled with how to handle the playside LBs.
I thought one of the strengths of our OL all year was the ability to adapt on the fly and know what to do when someone wasn't where they expected them to be.
I also am not buying that Michigan didn't take TCU seriously. Sometimes you come up with a plan that just doesn't work the way you thought it would.
February 21st, 2023 at 2:05 PM ^
I'm surprised they didn't handle this better on their pull scheme. But, if you noticed from the first series to the next series, TCU closed the gap between the 3 down lineman. They knew they were too wide. Once they did that, I was surprised we didn't really adjust. We also seemed to do better with a te in the H back than we did single back.
Not to mention, a lot of what fans were really upset about was, there were so many plays that they never accounted for JJ at all. So, not calling any RPO early, and forcing them to account for JJ was a bit late. And that was where I thought we had an advantage.
Oluwatimi looked injured and they had a good NT right on him so he didn't get a step to move. TCU's 3 down lineman did their job and that was stay low to not get pushed out on the double and go down if they have to and not give up any ground.
February 21st, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
I think you're wrong. Michigan didn't take them seriously until halftime. they knew they had to open it up then and they did. That attitude showed up all year long. Look at the msu game. We could've scored 60. Playing to our opponents level is a Michigan pastime.
February 21st, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
In the immediate aftermath of the game I was livid with the coaching staff ... don't you train on grass? grumble, grumble. Why was JJ throwing short into pick sixes and not deep like every analyst and their brother was advising before the game. grumble, grumble.
After watching the game again about a month after the fact with my fully weaponized slo-mo I came to a totally different conclusion - basically that with - ummm trying to say this delicately - with more good options at RB and better run & pass fits at LB it would have been a very different game.
I'm not at your level, Space Coyote, but I did go thru all your tldr; here and hope to get to the film breakdown, but bottom line - I'm glad you have faith in the coaches, cuz I LOVE this coaching staff and hate myself for blaming them in my ignorance.
February 21st, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
I think the TCU linebackers learned from OSU's self-destruction and took away what DE was able to do. Then Michigan lost Schoonmaker.
528 yards of offense with 45 points after that? Michigan played at a very high level, but was just unlucky with three plays (two pick-sixes, and the 76-yard breakdown).
February 21st, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
Yeah, we can nitpick on the offense, but outside of a few bad/unfortunate mistakes, they did pretty well.
The defense on the other hand...
February 21st, 2023 at 1:02 PM ^
The defense didn't throw 2 pick sixes. End of story. Take those off the board and look at that, the defense did enough.
February 21st, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^
JMO on the tcu game, I thought we were a very beat up team, esp at Center, TE, RB and then on dline Mike Morrris wasn't close to 100% and our run fits by our lbers were getting worked as our dt's got moved and de's didn't hold the POA.
Injuries, Olu in a walking boot the week of the game. Donovan wasn't full go, no Blake Corum, no Luke Schoonemaker or Eric All..
That doesn't excuse how bad our lbers were on defense, just how out of position they were. The Dline was not keeping them clean, but they weren't taking on blocks or shedding them at all. Add to that, the one long td pass as mentioned just got them all worked.
February 21st, 2023 at 1:28 PM ^
Pic 6, 1 Late throw a bit behind and not enough zip on the ball. Needed to be out, infront of Loveland. Also, there was zero set up of that cut by Loveland. He extended too much and gave his cut away. That safety would have bit a good move big as he was trying to sit on the out. But a flash look to the middle would have had him stoned in his feet and a good completion would have set up a call to the post by Loveland or a rec later.
February 21st, 2023 at 2:13 PM ^
You had me for a second ... but no Erick All? Come on, Man!
February 21st, 2023 at 2:31 PM ^
Injuries add up over the entire year. By seasons end we were on our 3rd, 4th and 5th te on the field. Colson Loveland isn't near the blocker that Schoonemaker or All are/were. So by the middle of that game it wasn't Loveland lining up in close.
Same on RB, we were down Blake Corum and we hadn't had him since the 2nd half of Illinois, and Edwards wasn't fully healthy or full speed but also showed he didn't have the same wiggle, drive as Corum did. You have to understand how by seasons end every starter or key back up that is out is massive. Ask yourself, does TCU defenders line up, attack the same when Hibner, Honigford or Bredeson are in vs Eric All or Schoonmaker? Not even close and you know it.
Heck, TCU fans were whining their top rb went out...
February 21st, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
Yesssss I’ve been eagerly awaiting the Space Coyote breakdowns. Thank you for your excellent analysis!
February 21st, 2023 at 11:47 AM ^
That last tweet by Space Coyote touches on my gut feel of the game. I think we had a lot of scheming set up for Schoon. When he went out, there was no plan B. That's how it felt to me live at least. The offense really seemed to struggle/change immediately when he went out.
February 21st, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
45 points sure but on 18 drives (2.5 pts/drive)...by comparison TCU's O had 38 on 15 (2.53, about the same), and this was M's 2nd worst ratio of the season (Illinois, 1.73). Caveat to the caveat, it was 39 points on the last 10 drives, and one of those was a pick6 on play 3 of the drive. So yea, they did figure out something in the 2nd half for sure.
Also, just to be clear - I LOVE your analysis. Stats are an important aspect to understanding the game, but the level of detail your film breakdowns bring is much much smarter than anything number crunching can tell you.
February 21st, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
I really wish we could get the all 22, it's so much easier and better to break down film. Wouldn't see anything world changing, but it would imo show where our oline struggled a bit easier and show where we just didn't use JJ early enough in ways to stress their defense, esp their lbers to create more opportunities for Donovan. Not having a 3rd viable rb hurt what the staff could do.
February 21st, 2023 at 1:13 PM ^
As a 30+year High School coach I have always approached attacking the 3-3-5 with alot of 2 tight and unblanced looks(make a space player get his nose dirty).In short yardage vs Purdue,Michigan went super heavy with extra OL and TE and big boyed Purdue.I do not recall seeing it against TCU.I expected to see it opening drive and the debacle FB dive when Mullings fumbled.
February 21st, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^
Our defense blitzed or went Cover 0 more times in the TCU game, than I've seen us do all year.