Filling Out the Class - Friday Edition

Submitted by alum96 on

Updates from Wednesday's edition - 1 gain (Eubanks), 1 loss (Elliott).  This wash leaves UM with 26 commits.  Current estimate is 31 commits and 30 scholarships (1 grayshirt, either a guy who commits flying out of planes or a guy from the deep south).

So 5 clear open spots left, assuming 1 grayshirt. 

Then we have our 3 in flux commits:

In Flux  
Nate Johnson ?
Dytarious Johnson Academics
Brad Hawkins Academics

Johnson was thought headed to Notre Dame but something went awry on his visit.  So you'd think UM.  But all those crystal ballz that went to ND the past 2 weeks have not suddenly jumped back to UM at this point.  They've jumped nowhere; ballz in flux.  Some rumors UM won't pursue; but just rumors.  Summary: confusion.

Academics (2?) - long held rumor Dytarious J won't make it in class, some hold out hope.  Recent rumblings Brad Hawkins will have issues academically so listing him at least as an "at risk'.

Therefore it is difficult to tell how many openings there really are.  If the above 3 are all in class, you have 5 spots. 

================

Seemingly in the class (3 guys) - takes scholarships eaten from 25 to 28.

  Yes  
26 Donald Stewart Soon
27 Rashan Gary Shhhh
28 Quinn Nordin USC / UM

Notes

  • Maybe Stewart was an offset to Nate Johnson although Stewart is an "outside guy" while Johnson is a "slot".  Maybe they are independent of each other.
  • Powers that be indicate 1 grayshirt at this time not 2 so either its Nordin taking up a scholarship or a current commit taking up a scholarship - doesn't matter which one for accounting purposes.
  • Removed Chase Allen for obvious reasons as Eubanks takes his spot.

=================

At this point you have 2 clearly open spots.  And "up to 5" based on what happens to the 3 guys in flux.

  Trusted Agents?  
1 Lavert Hill MSU / UM
2 Connor Murphy Left Coast v UM
     
3 Isaiah Simmons Clem / Neb / UM
4 Victor Viramontes Cal / Utah / UM / AZ
5 Jacob Mathis Ole Miss / SEC
     
6 Devin Asiasi Left Coast v UM
7 Boss Tagaloa Left Coast v UM
     
8 Jordan Fuller OSU

Notes

  • I've removed Pie and Jonathon Jones entirely as its Louisville and ND unless we hear otherwise.
  • Momentum for Hill seems to be re-strengthening.
  • Murphy's mom wanted him to commit on the spot on official.  #HokeThreat and USC threaten.
  • Fuller announces Monday - despite some general optimism no one wants to move their ballz to Michigan so assuming OSU unless a big swing this weekend.
  • Viramontes overnighting with RichRod - that offense seems suited to him as a QB.  Drevno visited this week.
  • Probably time to take Mathis out of prospest list - Ole Miss visit this weekend but I guess if Asiasi is not in we have a spot if we have him as a value pick at TE.
  • Simmons - can't tell where we stand or if room.
  • West coast!!! guys are a big catalyst for other spots.

If you get Hill and Murphy you are technically full if the "3 in flux" all stay in class and Gary Nordin and Stewart are in. 

If Asiasi and Who's the Boss both want in you tell Nate Johnson or Donald Stewart no more room - opens 1 spot.  Or tell both no - would open 2 spots.  Or if 1-2 guys academically do not qualify those spots can be given to CA duo. 

If the CA duo don't want in, then guys like Simmons Viramontes and Mathis (maybe? maybe not?) are weighed vs the Johnsons, academic guys etc.

 

MGoBoard
Football

Wolverine In Iowa 68

January 29th, 2016 at 9:41 AM ^

I'm surprised I still have hair with all of the 'crootin changes that have gone on the past few weeks

 

But this class is looking awesome, and high hopes we're going to finish out even stronger!

 

GO BLUE!

Joined: 07/16/2015

MGoPoints: 55975

UMICH1606

January 29th, 2016 at 9:47 AM ^

On the Webb/Trieu best guess list on Scout they classified Nate Johnson as in if he wants to be in.

It also sounded like Pie had a chance to beat him to the punch.

 

Basically the first 2 out of the 3 that decide they are in, can be.

The preference appears to be Johnson and Stewart. It looks like they have the right of first refusal.

Joined: 02/21/2010

MGoPoints: 4729

M-Dog

January 29th, 2016 at 4:03 PM ^

Not "decommitted" though.  Everyone agrees it means Harbaugh pulled the rug out from under you and you had no idea it was going to happen.  Even if you are not actually a Michigan recruit and you decommit from, say, Alabama.  Doesn't matter.

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 257476

Millie's Cookies

January 29th, 2016 at 10:02 AM ^

The Johnson stuff is what the "cloudy" crystal balls are for. I think he may have overplayed his hand a little bit. Sounds like Young might be heading to Louisville. Simmons seems pretty likely to play at Nebraska.

So, make it really simple, Michigan wants:

3 West Coast Kids - Asiasi, Tagaloa, and Murphy

3 Jersey Kids - Stewart, Gary, and Fuller

2 Michigan Kids - Nordin and Hill

I think any 5 of those guys makes for a brilliant class. Find a way to fit more than 5 in and it's stunning in its sheer talent and need-filling. Just consider what a "dream finish" (without both Johnsons and implying a GS or 2) looks like in terms of filling the field:

 

1 Tech – Dwumfour, Tagaloa

3 Tech – Gary

5 Tech – Murphy

Buck – Kemp, Johnson

Mike – Bush, Mbem-Bosse

Will – Uche, Gil

Nickel – Hudson

CB1 – Long

CB2 – Hill, Fuller

FS – Mitchell (?)

SS – Metellus, Hawkins (?)

 

QB – Peters

TB – Walker, Davis

TE – McKeon, Eubanks, Asiasi

Slot – Evans, McDoom

WR1 – Stewart

WR2 – Crawford

T1 – Hamilton

T2 – Spanellis

G1 – Bredeson

G2 – Onwenu

K – Nordin 

 

Joined: 07/14/2015

MGoPoints: 746

SD Larry

January 29th, 2016 at 10:05 AM ^

Thanks again Alumfor clarifying the current situation Alum 96.  Look forward to a next one before NSD ?  FWIW,    these never come too often imho. 

Joined: 10/05/2014

MGoPoints: 40954

alum96

January 29th, 2016 at 10:13 AM ^

Not sure much of anything will change other than Fuller before next Wed.  I think almost the entire board left will be announcing on NSD other than Fuller.  If we get Simmons before NSD maybe that shakes things up.  Maybe guys like Viramontes and Mathis announce earlier but that would probably 100% mean not UM as those are guys I think UM would only be able to offer a clear spot very late after getting No's from other peeps.

But I'll do one for sure next Wednesday evening, and I think it will provide immense clarification.....

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82457

umbig11

January 29th, 2016 at 10:08 AM ^

It's the off season and you are bringing football news amd discussions. Many of us appreciate the threads. It all ends after signing day next week anyway.

Joined: 07/21/2010

MGoPoints: 115573

True Blue Grit

January 29th, 2016 at 10:08 AM ^

The problem is it's amorphous - it's constantly changing based on differrent assumptions.  I guess the only absolute will be on NSD when the LOI's actually come in. - hopefully.

Joined: 01/21/2011

MGoPoints: 32364

Blue since day 1

January 29th, 2016 at 10:09 AM ^

Hill, Murphy, Boss, Asiasi and Fuller while getting rid of those 3 in question sounds like an excellent finish for us. Although if we dont get fuller then Vic would be next on my list.

Joined: 01/18/2016

MGoPoints: -134

TheReal_GR3

January 29th, 2016 at 10:12 AM ^

Going to be a crazy finish. Hold on to your Butts!!! 

 

My list 

  1. Gary
  2. Hill
  3. Fuller 
  4. Asiasi
  5. Tagaola

Man we really need to hit the safety position hard next year. I just don't see Mitchell or Hawkins as safeties. I'll have to watch there film again but for my eyes we are really hurting there. 

Joined: 04/11/2015

MGoPoints: 1125

DMack

January 29th, 2016 at 10:22 AM ^

Here's who we NEED

Asiasi

Tagaloa

Murphy

Hill

Fuller

Then we get

Nordin (Greyshirt)

Stewart

N. Johnson/Pie Young Depending on Hawkins status

So tell the staff to get their asses out west . . .

 

Joined: 06/22/2015

MGoPoints: 2743

father fisch

January 29th, 2016 at 10:25 AM ^

Thanks for this.  We need this updated every day (if not every hour) between now and the end of NSD!  I'm not getting any work done.  All I do is click back here to what's going on now!

Joined: 02/20/2015

MGoPoints: 4806

DMack

January 29th, 2016 at 10:35 AM ^

I'm sure we all agree they need to get there asses out west and run interference on USC while convincing Tagaloa's family he will be safe.

Joined: 06/22/2015

MGoPoints: 2743

Alumnus93

January 29th, 2016 at 10:42 AM ^

Sounds to me like Hawkins is also a grayshirt candidate... or can they allow him to enroll in the winter, and in the meanntime let him shore up his grades ?  Or is that the same thing as grayshirting?  I thought grayshirt was that they are enrolled as M students in the fall, and have to pay the tuition, but don't join the team until winter.....    why not have him not enroll altogether, until winter?

Joined: 09/10/2009

MGoPoints: 9684

tim4landg

January 29th, 2016 at 10:45 AM ^

Honestly, I don't think it matters much whether a school ends up with the top-ranked class or, say, number 8. All of those will be good classes, and the margin of error in how good a recruit actually turns out to be is greater than the difference between the top 10 or 15 schools at this point.

But I've got time to kill until signing day, so what the hell. 247 has this nifty calculator that you can use to figure a school's score for this class if they add or lose certain prospects. So I'm playing around with the impact of Gary signing with us, of Asiasi and Tagaloa. It's a nice tool because it shows the points that each individual would bring. But I wonder if anyone can help me with a question: Why don't the individual scores add up their recalculated team score?

We rank third on 247 now, with 265 points and change. Signing Gary would bring us 30 points, Asiasi 23.8, Tagaloa 18.27 and Hill 14.31. That adds up to more than 86 new points, but the recalculated number is just 286. Anyone have some insight?

Joined: 10/02/2011

MGoPoints: 619

process636

January 29th, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^

I believe they only count the top x# of guys in your class. When a better score comes in, it bumps out a lower score, but doesn't just add to the total. Otherwise a big class full of borderline 3/4 guys could get a better score than a class of the top 15 guys in the country.

Joined: 01/01/2011

MGoPoints: 124

michgoblue

January 29th, 2016 at 11:09 AM ^

First off, Alum96, these are awesome.  Thanks for spending so much time on this.  

Now, my take:

We are at 26 spots.  Brian has said that there is one more academic decommit coming (let's just say D. Johnson, given the rumors, but who really knows).  Takes us to 25.  Then let's assume one of those 25 is the GS - takes us to 24 out of 30.  So, we have toom for 6 more.  

My list, in order of confidence:

1.  Gary

2. Hill

3.  Murphy

4.  Stewart

5.  Boss

6.  Asiasi

I should note that aside from this being my best guess list, it is also my "best case scenerio" list.

I also think that we lose either Nate Johnson or Hawkins, and that the vacated spot goes to either Nordin or a complete surprise name that is not really on the radar.  

Joined: 11/16/2009

MGoPoints: 32166

skegemogpoint

January 29th, 2016 at 11:16 AM ^

many thanks to alum96 and Millie's Cookies for the breakdown.  While these posts hit the mark my experience with Commitmas Day tells me to keep one slot open for the inevitable unexpected, unforseen addition to the class.  Happens every time.

Joined: 07/08/2008

MGoPoints: 503

Albatross

January 29th, 2016 at 11:21 AM ^

was that he was close to fulfilling his acedemic requirements. Haven't read anything negative enough to put him on shaky ground. Plus with in-house visits from Don Brown and Drevno it would seem to indicate that they expect to have him in the class.

Joined: 11/12/2013

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