Duncan Robinson and the Heat Bounce Back
Awesome game by Jimmy Butler -- 40 points and a triple double. Duncan Robinson bounced back with a +27 outing.
October 4th, 2020 at 11:42 PM ^
With Dragic out he has to be big. He hit a few today but is due to break out of a mini slump for real.
October 5th, 2020 at 9:26 AM ^
This take brought to you by:
Gamblers Fallacy is False club of MgoBlog
October 4th, 2020 at 11:49 PM ^
He was + 27 in the +/- column but it doesn't look like he shot very well. He only had 13 points in 39 minutes.
October 4th, 2020 at 11:52 PM ^
No wrong column -- I said he was +27. In what other column does the + sign make sense? He had a massive minus outing the previous game, so that stat seems to be highly variable. No doubt Duncan got a massive boost from his teammates tonight, as his performance was secondary to that of Butler, Olynyk and others. But it shows that he still has coach's confidence and is "not just a shooter".
October 4th, 2020 at 11:53 PM ^
The +/- column.
October 5th, 2020 at 12:09 PM ^
In other news: Noisy stat is noisy.
It is important to note that the adjusted +/- rating is not a “holy grail” statistic that perfectly captures each player’s overall value. The ratings reported here are limited by a number of factors. First, because they are estimates calculated using a complex statistical model, such ratings tend to be somewhat “noisy” with substantial estimation error unless a very large sample of games is used. In practice, even a full NBA season does not provide an adequate sample size to fully eliminate this issue. The use of only half a season’s worth of data exacerbates the problem, as indicated by the relatively high standard errors presented below. Additionally, the estimates suffer from the issue of skewed sampling – the fact that most players usually find themselves on the court in the company of certain teammates and not others. As a result, it can be difficult to accurately tease out the individual effects of two players who almost always appear on the court together. Rosenbaum and others have outlined different ways of addressing these issues, most notably using multiple years’ worth of data and augmenting regression results with additional analyses based on box score statistics.
Emphasis mine...
October 4th, 2020 at 11:54 PM ^
The most important stat?
Miami 115, LA 104
October 4th, 2020 at 11:57 PM ^
THREE MORE!!
October 5th, 2020 at 1:05 AM ^
? Lakers in 5. Heat played the best they can, Lakers played the worst they can it was a tie game in the 4th. Lakers are looking forward to Game 4. That said, love watching Jimmy Butler...such a competitor on the court.
October 5th, 2020 at 10:29 AM ^
Chill. We get you’re the fan of a heavy favorite but let’s not pretend like 2 of the Heat’s best players weren’t out. That was a bad loss by LA.
They should have shut the door on the series yesterday, now it can go 6 or even 7 if Bam and Dragon come back healthy.
LA is better and still in the drivers seat, but they laid an egg last night.
October 5th, 2020 at 11:17 AM ^
The Lakers absolutely deserved to lose. When you disrespect the game with that level of effort, you shouldn't be rewarded. Kudos to Miami for coming out with great effort despite being severely undermanned.
October 5th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
Butler emptied his tank last night...glad he gets 2 days off before Wed. AI had a great game against Shaq and Kobe...still lost 4-1. AD is not going to sleepwalk through game 4.
October 5th, 2020 at 2:09 AM ^
A series saving performance for a feisty Heat team, but it's tough to see them take 3 of the next 4. Jimmy Butler went supernova tonight and he's going to need to continue that for the Heat to have a shot. Sucks that a series I would have considered interesting (albeit Lakers favored) has been tarnished by injuires to Dragic, the sparkplug of the Heat's playoff run and Bam, the team do-it-all big. Still, if you play sloppy ball, the Heat are good enough to capitalize.
An uncharacteristic 13 combined turnovers from Davis and LeBron, as well as some cold shooting nights from some of the role players (KCP, Green, Rondo) definitely played their part tonight, but it's tough to see that happening every time afterwards. At some point, guys will get warm, or get pulled for good (Green in particular has been unplayable this series).
A great 39 minute effort for our guy Duncan tonight, even if his shooting line isn't perfect. He's taken his lumps in this series but hopefully he's getting comfortable against the Lakers. With 2 core guys out, the Heat need to get as much out him as possible.
October 5th, 2020 at 10:17 AM ^
Good analysis!
I see Duncan out there guarding Lebron in the NBA Finals and it's a bit surreal. That's a tough assignment!
I find it interesting to compare the biographies of Jimmy Butler and Lebron James -- the two stars tonight. Lebron has been a star throughout his life -- starting out big and living up to his potential. Butler played at Tyler Junior College and was the No. 127 junior college prospect in 2008. So they've taken different routes to get where they are today.
October 5th, 2020 at 10:48 AM ^
The Heat are still fighting an uphill battle but the KCP, Green, and Rondo that showed up last night are much more likely to happen again vs what they did in game 1. Danny Green is the luckiest player in NBA history. You could build cathedrals with his bricks.
The formula is definitely there to beat the Lakers 3 more times. Davis played scared for half the game when he got 3 fouls in the first half. He ended the game with 4. Unbelievably bad game for him where Bam didn’t play.
I actually think Bam being out this game sort of screwed with the Lakers defense. While Bam plays on the perimeter a ton doing screens and handoffs, him being out basically meant the Heat could play 5 out and this let Butler live in the lane and draw fouls and hit his shots. Many times in the game Butler would drive on a smaller defender and the Lakers didn’t help down low because of Duncan in the corner.
Duncan didn’t have a good shooting game again but he got fouled on 3s at least 3 times and none were called. One was a landing zone flagrant and that shot went in. The Lakers are doing a really good job on him so props to them. His +27 last night just shows how valuable he is when he’s not shooting well. I thought he made a good adjustment last night and actually put the ball on the floor and attacked those hard close outs. I know he set up his teammates for at least 3 wide open 3s off these plays.
I really hope Bam and Dragic can make it back for the rest of the series because while Jimmy went nuclear last night, it’s pretty likely the Lakers will adjust and prevent that from repeating. The Heat really need Dragic for those times when the offense goes cold.
October 5th, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
Couldn't agree more about Robinson's passing on the move.........he was really impressive in that regard. I'm not a big fan of assist % (But I still cite it), because it doesn't really capture the playmaking when a teammate doesn't reward the pass with a make. I much prefer assistable %. That said, Robinson had several passes that gave his team an advantage after attacking a hard closeout.
I disagree about the landing zone fouls...........I absolutely hate the rule and hope the officials continue to swallow the whistle in that regard. When shooters jump forward 99.9% of the time, the landing zone is arbitrary at best. Functionally, that rule amounts to "you cannot sufficiently contest a jumpshot". The landing zone should be be construed conservatively IMO, and only apply to the area directly below the area where the shooter elevates. Otherwise, the landing zone really means 6 feet of landing space in any direction.
October 5th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^
I’m not a huge fan of the rule either but I would like to see it called consistently if it’s in the rule book. I suspect because it was LeBron is why it wasn’t called. And I’m not biased against LBJ. I’m a cavs fan and have been for 20+ years and LeBron is my favorite player of all time.
The call in question was pretty clear IMO and wasn’t like the extreme example you brought up. Duncan naturally landed a few inches forward than where he took off from but LeBron was moving forward into the landing space the whole time. Maybe that’s not the flagrant version but that’s absolutely a foul.
October 5th, 2020 at 1:26 PM ^
I do agree the shot you reference (with Lebron closing) is a foul per the rule book, but it all worked out IMO, because Rondo was called for a foul on a closeout that was absolutely not a foul.
I'm not a Lebron fan, and do agree he probably received the benefit of the doubt on that closeout. Bur realistically, he's probably fouled on 80-90% of his dribble drives to the rim and they aren't called at that rate. So this may be the refs way of dealing with that. Just pure speculation though.
October 5th, 2020 at 1:42 PM ^
Lol you don’t gotta tell me about LeBron not getting calls on dribble drives my dude. I know.
October 5th, 2020 at 2:25 AM ^
He’s been off but the Law of Large Numbers should be coming right up. That sounds like a fundamental misunderstanding, but he’s broadening his sample size so I’m hoping - don’t ruin this for me!
October 5th, 2020 at 6:59 AM ^
+/- stat, really
He successfully didn’t trip Jimmy Butler on his way to the basket.
I would like Duncan to have one game where his best play is something other than getting into a passing lane after biffing a layup.
October 5th, 2020 at 9:14 AM ^
If you watched the game, Butler had acres of space to drive in part because Duncan was out on the three point line and the Lakers don't let a defender get more than three feet from him because they are worried about his shooting.
October 5th, 2020 at 12:39 PM ^
Clearly I watched and clearly I am mocking the value of his contribution to the +/- stat.
October 5th, 2020 at 7:15 AM ^
Duncan looked much better this game, he is really finding himself in the NBA
October 5th, 2020 at 7:54 AM ^
Jimmy Butler was unbelievable and LeBron is a whiner. Great game.
October 5th, 2020 at 8:36 AM ^
I'm surprised. I admit I thought the series was all over after the first two games, except for the formality of playing the last two. Go, Heat! Get hot!
October 5th, 2020 at 8:56 AM ^
game 4 is the big one. heat win and who knows what could happen.
October 5th, 2020 at 10:39 AM ^
lmao. game 4 is the big one because game 3 was the first big one and they won.
October 5th, 2020 at 12:01 PM ^
Ok. If I buy a lottery ticket today, who knows. This series looking a lot like Denver. Game 4 going to be fun to watch.
October 5th, 2020 at 9:01 AM ^
I don’t watch the NBA much but I caught the last 6 mins or so of the game last night. Does LeBron throw an aggressive temper tantrum every time he gets called for a foul? Also walked off the court before the game was over while he was technically in the game- is this just normal and I don’t watch much?
October 5th, 2020 at 11:20 AM ^
Yes he does. Him and Dwight Howard are 2 of the biggest whiners in the league (Howard more so back when he played for the Magic though).
October 5th, 2020 at 9:40 AM ^
I've refrained from commenting on the various NBA Finals threads because our collective rooting interests seem to slant toward Miami because of Duncan, even though I'm an avid Lakers fan. I'll remind everyone though, that the current Lakers GM is indeed former Michigan guard Rob Pelinka.
As for the game, Duncan Robinson was probably below average in the aggregate. Really impressed with his passing, particularly on the move during a few possessions last night. I think most people are enamored with dependent variables/outputs when measuring Robinson's shooting. The truth is the Lakers are an elite defensive team and his shots are highly contested for the most part. In a nutshell, he's rushed because he doesn't have enough time to get a clean look.
But the other side of the court is where he's having tons of issues. He's getting hunted constantly, gives up straight line drives at a high rate and consistently fouls jumpshooters. He's probably capped out as an adequate defender at best at the NBA level, so this isn't a surprise. It's just extremely difficult to play both Robinson and Herro at the same time because they're both defensive liabilities.
As for the series, the logic is the same for the Lakers. As I said in the Nuggets series, when the Lakers decide to turn up the defensive intensity for those 5-6 minute stretches there is nothing anyone can do about it. Curious to see the adjustments from both sides tomorrow night.
October 5th, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^
He's probably capped out as an adequate defender at best at the NBA level, so this isn't a surprise.
Yes, but somehow there he is guarding Lebron James in the finals and going +27 while Lebron is -4. I admit that most of that is Jimmy Butler, but still Robinson seems to be doing much better than expected. Maybe the zone defense is helping?
October 5th, 2020 at 10:37 AM ^
Objectively, the only time Duncan has prevented Lebron from scoring or drawing help defense after being beat off the dribble is when Lebron plays around with the ball beyond the 3pt line for 4-5 dribbles rather than attacking with purpose. When Lebron decides to attack Duncan quickly, he has absolutely destroyed him and Herro. Honestly, its just a matter of whether Lebron decides to go all in. If he does, Miami simply has no answer on those switches.
October 5th, 2020 at 10:59 AM ^
Are you surprised Spoelstra has been sticking with Duncan for so many minutes even though he hasn't been draining the 3-pointers?
October 5th, 2020 at 11:03 AM ^
Not at all. Without Dragic and Bam, there aren't really many alternatives. His presence alone, particularly as a strongside shooter in PnR action with Butler is a legit spacing mechanism, because the Lakers are staying attached to the corner as opposed to stunting at Butler on drives.
If Duncan can simply be below average on defense, as opposed to an absolute liability, he's going to play and hopefully knock down shots and continue to impress as a passer.
October 5th, 2020 at 3:06 PM ^
Duncan is the LeBron stopper.
October 5th, 2020 at 1:59 PM ^
Matt, getting way off the rails here, but looking ahead (next year and beyond), if you assume (as I do) that Duncan likely stays very limited defensively, do you think they move him and focus on Herro? Herro is a star-in-the-making (almost for sure), and they basically play the same spot.
I'm hardly a Capologist, but UFA VanVleet is a potentially very interesting PG to put with Butler, Bam and Herro. Might be able to move Iguadola's contract with Duncan as the tasty asset for a team desperately in need of shooting. (Philly could really use him, but doubt Miami wants him with a contender in the East.) MIA would have tons of cap room. And despite his stellar playoffs, MIA has a tough choice in how long to extend UFA Dragic given his age.
Dario Saric is another RFA piece that could look really interesting on either of these Finals teams next year.
October 5th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^
I've refrained from commenting on this very topic because of our collective rooting interest, but yes, I tend to agree that long term Herro is a better investment for Miami in relation to Duncan, if the Heat are forced to choose one in a vacuum.
But Miami has Herro on a cheap contact for a few more years, so they aren't really in a "choose one" situation. The Heat have a team option for Robinson next year for under 2 mill, so that's a no brainer that Pat Riley will undoubtedly pick up. As you reference above, Dragic is the issue. He's played at a really high level throughout the playoffs and is in for a pay day (probably a short deal because of his age). Another issue is Olynyk and whether he decides to pick up his 14 mill player option for next year.
Long term though, GMs don't tend to place a very high value on "just shooter/scorer" types that are defensive liabilities. Ryan Anderson, Nick Young, Kyle Korver, Lou Williams types just aren't going to be viewed as guys that warrant 15 mill per year. So that may give Pat Riley some leverage in terms of securing Duncan on a long term deal for cheap. To your direct question, yes, I'd move Robinson for an on-ball shot creator that is adequate defensively. But the issue is he doesn't make enough to really bring anything back (remember NBA trades are all about matching salaries) independently, so as you allude to they'd have to package Robinson with perhaps Iggy, but I don't know how many GMs are willing to give up a tier 4/tier 5 player in Van Fleet for two role players.
October 5th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^
Appreciate the insightful response.
VanVleet is a UFA though, right? I was thinking mostly move Iggy to clear space and then throw a big number at VanVleet when he hits the market.
October 5th, 2020 at 3:54 PM ^
Van Fleet is a UFA. Moving Iggy is definitely a caproom type move assuming they don't take on any salary for the subsequent season. Iggy is an attractive trade piece in that he'll be an expiring deal at the conclusion of 2020-2021. But if a potential trade partner is looking to take on Iggy because of the expiring deal, it likely means that franchise is doing so to clear cap space for free agency as well..........in other words it seems unlikely the Heat will be able to move Iggy for another expiring contract unless they sweeten the deal with multiple picks.
Overall though, if Riley functionally swaps Dragic for Van Fleet, I don't think it makes the team any better. The team would be relatively the same IMO. The Heat need to improve their perimeter defense as a priority IMO.
October 5th, 2020 at 9:51 AM ^
Duncan was in the game all but a couple minutes. That had to impact is shooting. It was weird seeing him miss some wide open looks. Glad they won though so the series is a little more interesting. The first couple games were snoozers.
October 5th, 2020 at 4:44 PM ^
It was weird seeing him miss some wide open looks.
I think I've seen that before somewhere. I can't quite place my finger on it . . .
October 5th, 2020 at 9:58 AM ^
Duncan is saving his DiVincenzo like NC performance for the next game.....
LOOK OUT, it fixin' a B raining 3's.
October 5th, 2020 at 10:36 AM ^
Butler stats: 40 points on 20 shots. Zero 3-pt attempts. He's the king of the mid-range jumper (not bad driving to the basket either)!
October 5th, 2020 at 12:20 PM ^
Got one however going to be difficult to repeat that performance.
October 5th, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^
I tuned in to check on Robinson for a minute, but I stayed to watch Butler.
What an amazing effort. Much respect for him.