Dear Andy article from The Athletic (paywall)
Nice analysis of UofM football use of the portal and development of talent to keep up with Georgia and OSU
https://theathletic.com/4027219/2022/12/22/dear-andy-college-football-mailbag-3/
December 22nd, 2022 at 9:09 AM ^
To summarize: Decent recruiting + judicious use of the portal + excellent development=A very good (maybe great, maybe not) team
December 22nd, 2022 at 9:17 AM ^
E, at a minimum, Michigan is a very good team. Time.. the next month.. will tell just how good they are. Go Blue!
December 22nd, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
But when will Judy tell us?
December 22nd, 2022 at 9:45 AM ^
SD, the fine "auto spell" on my device took over. "Judy" has been corrected to "just". Thanks for catching this! Enjoy the holidays..
December 22nd, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
i just figured it was some sort of JUDGE judy reference.
December 22nd, 2022 at 11:59 AM ^
Judy, Judy, Judy...
December 22nd, 2022 at 5:42 PM ^
Plus we scout better than the scouting services.
December 22nd, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^
Sharing a small excerpt as a sample in case anyone would like to subscribe to the Athletic:
Who were the two biggest offensive stars of Michigan’s win against Ohio State? Quarterback J.J. McCarthy and tailback Donovan Edwards. According to the 247Sports Composite, McCarthy was a five-star recruit in the Class of 2021. Edwards was Michigan’s highest-ranked four-star in the same class. At No. 42 in the nation, Edwards was seven spots away from a five-star ranking. (In fact, 247Sports did rank Edwards as a five-star at No. 33 overall; other services had him only slightly lower.)
The performances by McCarthy and Edwards were made possible by the play of center Olu Oluwatimi, the 2022 Outland Trophy and Rimington Trophy winner who joined Michigan this season after graduating from Virginia. Oluwatimi was the final piece Michigan offensive coordinator/offensive line coach Sherrone Moore needed to build a Joe Moore Award-winning O-line. Michigan’s other four offensive line starters (Ryan Hayes, Trevor Keegan, Zak Zinter and Karsen Barnhart) were all signed out of high school by Harbaugh and his staff, and all were four-star recruits ranked between No. 176 and No. 335 overall. While this doesn’t match the sheer star power of Ohio State’s linemen, with good evaluation and development it’s quite possible to create a dominant line manned by future NFL players with this sort of raw material.
Good article.
December 22nd, 2022 at 9:41 AM ^
I confess to being a little confused by the Athletic article, which references Michigan's win(?) over Ohio State. Per Andy Staples' colleague Ari Wasserman, Ohio State had deterministically beaten its archival before the game even started by virtue of its higher recruiting star numbers.
December 22nd, 2022 at 9:48 AM ^
Kehn, It seems to me that Ohio State is getting the "SEC treatment". And, in that - every loss is considered a "good loss".
This is at least the second time the Buckeyes have "backdoored" their way into the CFP. That's by not winning the conference - and, not winning the East Division.
The love for the team in Columbus is surpassed by only a few teams. Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia - appear to be the three teams that the CFP loves just as much, if not a bit more, than the Buckeyes.
December 22nd, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
It is pretty insane that OSU had five five-stars starting on their OL and DL against us. More than half of their combined fronts are five-stars. That’s more five-stars than we have on our roster. And we dominated the trenches.
December 22nd, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
For THE past two seasons
December 22nd, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
Outstanding use of all caps.
THE beatdown. THE lack of toughness. THE idea of being born on 3rd base.
December 22nd, 2022 at 5:48 PM ^
(42 - 27) + (45 - 23) > 5 five stars
December 22nd, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^
Judicious recruiting, judicious hiring, judicious portaling (in+out), and judicious game planning = a Judge Jud-isciously good, maybe great, team.
December 22nd, 2022 at 10:00 AM ^
I would add judicious staffing/coaching choices.
December 22nd, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
There are not many teams in recent memory that could do what Michigan has done in the past 2 years. They aren't getting elite recruiting classes year after year like the Bamas, Georgias, and Clemsons of the world yet were able to turn the tide on a rivalry that has been very bleak for the past two decades against a team (that also has pretty elite recruiting talent) in The Game.
There's a lot to be proud of as a Michigan football fan
December 22nd, 2022 at 12:16 PM ^
Michigan does more with less. Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and until recently Clemson, consistently win the metaphorical race because they had the fastest car (ie most talented players). Michigan wins despite not having the fastest car because of driving skill (ie coaching). Sorry for the race metaphor, but as an ex-motocross guy it seems like a good comparison-Ricky Carmichael didn’t win because he had the best bike.
I’m going to say it-Michigan has the best coaching staff in the country. I’ll go even further out on the limb-Harbaugh and staff>Saban. Saban wins because he collects the best players. Go to the NFL, where the talent is dispersed more equitably, and the guy was ordinary. Controversial take, but I’ll stand by it…
December 22nd, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^
I stand with you in your assessment. I will also raise you one notion: Michigan will now overtake Alabama as the new powerhouse of College Football. Harbaugh becomes to College football what Saban and Co. used to be.
The Team
The Team
The Team
December 22nd, 2022 at 9:52 AM ^
It all started after the awful 2020 season when Harbaugh looked himself in the mirror, set aside a few of his stubborn ways, and revamped his staff to include younger, more energetic and so-called relatable guys. From there they all got on the same page in terms of goals and approach, then player development took off and here we are, undefeated and back-to-back B1G champs. Almost no one saw this coming 2 short years ago. Those who stay...!
December 22nd, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
it's a nice overview.
i particularly like the "blue chip ratio" that he references, which i hadn't heard of before. (short, possibly ignorant synopsis - you need a roster of at least 50% 4- and 5-stars to have a legitimate shot at a national championship...at that point, you can coach / scheme the roster up. we're at 51.8%, georgia is at 80%).
my only question with the ratio, if you could call it that, is that it treats starters the same as the fifth-stringers. if you have four 4-star qbs, three of whom never see the field, it's the same roster evaluation as having four starting linemen, and we've seen that it doesn't work that way. it's a good quick-and-dirty thumbnail of overall talent level, but (as always) digging deeper yields better analysis.
December 22nd, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
Yes. These "experts" are over-flowing will self-fulfilling prophecies that are otherwise full of sound and fury-signifying nothing. Athletic talent is very important but elite coaching at this level is even more important. If 42-27 and 45-23 does not provide enough empirical evidence for the realities here...just don't know what to say. And here, Mr. James Franklin is that coach who will always be behind the 8-ball...he is fully dependent upon both luck and having a high level of talent.
December 22nd, 2022 at 11:25 AM ^
Not sure why you need sarcastic quotes around experts for Andy and Bud when they are talking about recruiting. All the ratio indicates is that a certain baseline of talent is necessary to be successful at the highest levels. Michigan is one of the teams who has that level of talent.
December 22nd, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
I take the blue chip ratio as a prerequisite of sorts, not a be all, end all criterion. He's right that you have to have a LOT of 4* and 5* athletes on your roster to even have a chance at winning the national title. But of course you also need excellent coaches who develop that talent and a head coach with a vision and sufficient communication and motivational skills to build a Team. And then there's depth, injury luck, and funky bounces on the field.
On one hand the amount of money that head coaches get paid is insane but on the other hand they have exceedingly difficult jobs that require crazy long hours in a cut throat business with little patience. The successful ones are probably worth the $$$.
December 22nd, 2022 at 10:17 AM ^
Staples mentions it briefly, but I think probably the most important part of this formula working is that Michigan and Georgia have kind of chosen to zig while almost everyone else was zagging by building around a tough running game and monster d-line while others (OSU) were going to more finesse. I think the reason most of us on this board are worried and pessimistic about playing Georgia is that one, we saw it last year, and two, they are doing similar things to Michigan with better players.
It's always a game of adjustments over time, so it will be interesting to see what the next trend is.
December 22nd, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
UGA isn't the team they were last year, but yeah, it's definitely a worry. Interestingly one of the few (maybe only) positions we have a star advantage is QB, and JJ would almost certainly have to have a great game for us to be able to beat them.
December 22nd, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^
Michigan did move the ball with JJ vs Georgia, caveats apply. The 2nd half dynamic is different this year as well.
December 22nd, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
I mostly agree, but it’s not like OSU has stopped recruiting the defensive line. Three of the four DL they rolled out against us were five-stars. Let that sink in. Can you imagine having 75% five-stars in a single unit?
Stylistically they’re more basketball on grass than manball, yeah, but they definitely have the horses.
December 22nd, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
Yes on paper they obviously have the horses. But something's missing and I think it must be something important. They won the national title in 2014 but haven't won one since despite having all of that 5* talent. When they've made the CFP they've gotten stomped on other than in 2014. And since Meyer stepped down and Day took over they've slowly gotten worse on the field, although the top-heaviness of the B1G makes that hard to discern (45-5 is still an amazing record).
But now we've stomped them twice in a row despite their 5* talent and they don't know what to make of it. If they get beaten soundly by UGA--as seems likely--either they will look themselves in the mirror like Harbaugh did in late 2020 and makes some real changes or they'll treat it as a one-off and keep getting stomped by their supposed peers (Alabama, UGA, Clemson with their prior coordinators, and now Michigan).
December 22nd, 2022 at 12:47 PM ^
When they've made the CFP they've gotten stomped on other than in 2014.
As much as I hate to say it, that isn't really accurate. They've gotten stomped once in the semis (Clemson, 2016) and once in the championship game (Bama, 2020). Other than that, they hung close with Clemson in the semis in 2019 (if I remember correctly, it felt like they let that game slip away), and crushed Clemson in the semis the next year before the aforementioned beatdown by Bama.
The bigger criticism is that they missed the playoffs in 2015, 2017 and 2018 (and oh yeah, 2021!), despite two of those teams going 11-1 (2015) and 12-1 (2018) in the regular season.
December 22nd, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^
I stand corrected—your point is a good one with more accurate data to back it up than mine. BUT to the larger question of Now what? for OSU—it may be even less likely that they make the necessary changes to compete for championships with their 5* recruits!
December 22nd, 2022 at 1:18 PM ^
i've seen some articles that suggested the chip kelly was ryan day's "mentor." which, frankly, is weird, since they only spent a couple of years together (philadelphia and the 49ers? i'm happy to be contradicted).
anyhoo - it definitely checks out. chip kelly's oregon teams were terrifying offensively when they were rolling, but they had no idea what to do in an alley. punch them in the mouth and they rolled right over. sound familiar?
my point being - yeah, ohio state probably needs to make some changes if they truly want to trade punches and win championships. i highly doubt that ryan day is a guy that can do that.
December 22nd, 2022 at 10:49 AM ^
Why do people constantly link to articles behind paywalls? You have to know most people here can't access it.
December 22nd, 2022 at 11:11 AM ^
Journalism is not free. I'd love for a way to pay $1 for an article of interest at a random source without subscribing. But I have zero issue with people posting paywalled articles. They should provide a very brief summary - that would possibly motivate me to subscribe. If there were a rule against posting paywalled articles, information and quality content would be diminished. Paywalled news sources also improve the quality of open/free sources. The bring the quality of journalism up.
December 22nd, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
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December 22nd, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
It wasn't behind a paywall for me.
Great article. Michigan can and does recruit well.
December 22nd, 2022 at 11:45 AM ^
I know that your point is not about The Athletic in particular but for the record it's a solid site with generally good writing and excellent analysis. Personally I don't subscribe full-time, I take advantage of their $1/month rate for the 5-6 months of college football season and then cancel every year. If you're cheap like me and don't want to pay more for internet journalism I would recommend my approach--their college football coverage is worth it.
December 22nd, 2022 at 2:47 PM ^
the athletic is the best sports writing site out there. period.
the ringer is...well, it's very good, once you get past the douchebro vibe that oozes from every pixel. that comes from simmons, obviously - but the guy has an eye for writing talent. fo me, though, i can't stay on the site for more than a couple minutes without the vague feeling that someone is trying to pick me up.
the less said about espn (the website or the network) the better. scores? live games? sure. that's it, though.