College Football Playoff Probabilities
With conference championships upon us this weekend -- and final CFP standings being released shortly after, I started to think about what all the possibilities were and what this would mean for us.
I put together all 16 possible outcomes from this weekend (all teams win, all teams lose, and everything in between) and put together my final prediction of the final standings and who will play who.
Assumptions
- Michigan, Georgia, and TCU are in regardless of whether they win or lose
- CFP committee will view a one team loss WITH a conference championship more than a one team loss WITHOUT a conference championship (this only really impacts final four order if USC and TCU win and Michigan or Georgia lose)
- CFP committee will avoid a Michigan Ohio State semi final (if not, 2/16 scenarios where Ohio State could possibly play Michigan in the semis, and a 50% probability of that happening = 1/16, or a 6% chance)
Likely outcomes
- Michigan, Georgia, and TCU make it to the playoffs
- USC has a 50% chance (win and in)
- Ohio State has a 50% chance (rooting interests = Utah)
- Michigan semis playoff probabilities
- 62.5% probability Michigan plays TCU
- 25% probability Michigan plays USC
- 12.5% probability Michigan plays Georgia
Thoughts?
November 30th, 2022 at 6:57 PM ^
Go Blue!
November 30th, 2022 at 8:04 PM ^
But first, Go USC.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:10 PM ^
Beat Purdue.
November 30th, 2022 at 6:58 PM ^
Love it! I am hoping that the statistics work out as I believe they are favorable for us.
I believe we would matchup well vs TCU and pray for USC to upset Georgia.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
Ask me Monday.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
Your probabilities assume all 16 outcomes are equally likely. But only TCU and USC are legit coin flips.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:05 PM ^
Yeah... the chart is fine, but the probabilities are not correct.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:39 PM ^
I have seen USC progress all year. If I was a gambling man, I would bet the house that USC is going to really punish Utah for that loss earlier this year.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:06 PM ^
Well the line is -3 so uh... maybe being your house would represent a gambling problem.
December 2nd, 2022 at 8:47 AM ^
After last weekend I’d say lines mean squat. I too look for USC to beat Utah down. Although seeing OSU get absolutely demolished by Georgia wouldn’t hurt my feelings either.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:07 PM ^
Alabama gets a one seed.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:24 PM ^
You laugh, but...
November 30th, 2022 at 7:10 PM ^
If the top 4 can only hurt themselves by playing an extra game, what is the incentive to play while the 5 and 6 team root for you to lose? Seems like the top 4 should not be penalized for playing in their conference championship if they lose.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:11 PM ^
USC should concede the PAC
November 30th, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
The Pac12 should either bribe the refs in USC's favor or pretend there is a covid pandemic amongst their officials and call off the game to assure they get a team in.
Joking of course as they'd anger TV and $ deals.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:11 PM ^
If the top 4 can only hurt themselves by playing an extra game, what is the incentive to play while the 5 and 6 team root for you to lose?
Thankfully, money plays no role in the decision.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:02 PM ^
But ... there's no way of knowing before the season that that's what the circumstances will be. Imagine if we had lost a game to, say, Illinois, leaving us at 11-1 and ranked, say, 5th. Then an extra game (especially if it was against a ranked Big Ten West team (don't laugh)) could really help us.
There's no way of knowing before the season starts. Or are you suggesting a team now simply declines to play? That would be a forfeit, at the very least, and would obviously be punished.
(But also, some teams also quite like the idea of winning a conference championship. And some of their fans -- including this one -- do as well. I wouldn't want to "concede" the Big Ten championship to Purdue. Let's bring it home, and worry about the National Championship after!).
November 30th, 2022 at 9:25 PM ^
I think you took Mighty Matt’s comment too seriously.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:11 PM ^
These posts are becoming satire but I'm here for all of it.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:13 PM ^
Rooting for USC Friday, TCU at noon Saturday, and capping it off with Michigan Saturday night!
December 1st, 2022 at 1:10 AM ^
Root for Georgia too. If they were to lose badly for some reason, they could fall to #4 as the only team without a conference championship.
We would be #1 (hooray) but we would face #4 Georgia who we do not match up that well with, in the first round.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:20 PM ^
After all of the talk this year about 3 SEC teams potentially making the playoffs, I never thought for a moment I'd wish there was a 2nd SEC team ranked higher going into the last week simply to keep OSU out.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:23 PM ^
Beat Pete
November 30th, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^
Chalk for of all these games seem like the best option for Michigan.
#GoBlue
November 30th, 2022 at 7:54 PM ^
I don't care WTF happens so long as we don't have to play OSU in the CFP.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:57 PM ^
If you factor in the actual chances of these outcomes happening (based on the ESPN FPI pick) the chances become:
Michigan vs TCU: 67.5%
Michigan vs USC: 28.9%
Michigan vs Georgia: 3.6%
November 30th, 2022 at 9:58 PM ^
November 30th, 2022 at 8:03 PM ^
Also, basing the bowl location on these assumptions for the #1 team:
Georgia will always pick Peach
Michigan will pick Peach if playing USC
Michigan vs TCU is a "who knows?" if either of those teams are picking
Then the Bowl location odds are:
Fiesta: 87.0%
Peach: 5.4%
Unknown: 7.6%
November 30th, 2022 at 8:09 PM ^
What is stopping USC just from saying fuck it we aren't playing this weekend??
November 30th, 2022 at 8:17 PM ^
I don't know, maybe the contract the Pac 12 has with FOX and the contract USC has with Pac 12?
November 30th, 2022 at 8:27 PM ^
So what would they do?
November 30th, 2022 at 9:04 PM ^
Why didn't we refuse to play Illinois? We still would have won the Big Ten East, right?
Jeez, man.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:16 PM ^
They could "play" and just bench their starters. Hard to knock them down win or lose if starters don't play.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:23 PM ^
The percentages give the Good Guys and Georgia in a rematch as the likliest outcome, this time in the NC game. This time I think we're a better and more well rounded team. Our big wins are bigger, against demonstrably better opponents.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:36 PM ^
On the flip side, Georgia is not the juggernaut it was last year. Georgia and Bama were head and shoulders above everyone else, not the case this year.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:58 PM ^
I want to play Georgia this year (hopefully for the natty). I think our team will come out with vengeance after how they got took to the woodshed last year. To be the best, you got to beat the best!
December 1st, 2022 at 12:22 AM ^
I think TCU is out with a loss and Bama sneaks in. Please, Football Gods, don’t let that happen.
December 1st, 2022 at 1:17 AM ^
Bama won't jump OSU.
And OSU should not jump TCU either, if the TCU loss is close.
TCU's wins and strength of schedule compare reasonably with OSU's, and a TCU close loss would be a much better loss than OSU's stomping at the hands of Michigan, at home, on a sunny day, without Michigan's best players on offense and defense.
December 1st, 2022 at 5:20 AM ^
It’s really gross to think that OSU could have a shot at the playoffs after the drubbing Michigan delivered combined with their average outings against ND, PSU, and NW.
It reflects how much parity exists this year among top 15 teams.