B1G Team(s) in the CFP

Submitted by mgoDAB on

So I wanted to get a feel for what the board thinks in regards to B1G team(s) getting into the CFB.

In my opinion, if Penn St beats Wisconsin next week in the B1G Championship, I do not see them getting left out of the CFP. For one, they will have beaten Ohio St head-to-head (who is also fighting for a CFP spot) and a Top 10 Wisconsin team. Their two losses will have come to Pittsburgh (a solid 8-4 team that also beat Clemson) and Michigan on the road when they were dealing with a lot of injuries. Also, in the last few weeks they have annihilated Iowa (a team that might not be so mediocre after all getting big wins over Michigan and Nebraska) and MSU (a team that some believe is better than their record indicates and played both Michigan and Ohio St tough at least in terms of those games' final scores).

If Penn St were to win next week, I could easily see a similar fall out a la 2014 when TCU fell from #3 to #6 in the final rankings despite beating their opponent by 50ish points in the final week of the season. Only this time I can see Ohio St getting snubbed in a similar fashion, and it would be justified as a Penn St team that beat them and won their conference would go instead.

I think it also really comes down to what the committee thinks of Washington. If Clemson takes care of business next week, there is no way they are left out after beating Auburn, Louisville, and FSU and being led by Deshaun Watson. Win and in for them. However, the playoff committee has been skeptical of Washington much of the year, but if they win next week they will have blown out a good WSU and beaten a Top 10 Colorado team. Washington would finish the season at 12-1 with their lone loss coming to a Top 10ish USC that has been widely regarded as the hottest team in college football right now. So I do not see them getting left out of the playoff.

So here are the my predictions for several scenarios and I assume that Alabama takes care of business against Florida and that the BIG 12 is out.

Clemson, Washington win; Penn St wins the B1G:

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Washington
  4. Penn St
  5. Ohio St
  6. Michigan

Maybe Ohio St gets in here instead of Washington.

Clemson, Washington win; Wisconsin wins the B1G:

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio St/Clemson
  3. Clemson/Ohio St
  4. Washington
  5. Wisconsin
  6. Michigan

In this case, Ohio State will get the nod for CFP as they beat Wisconsin head-to-head and finished the season with one less loss than UW.

EITHER Clemson OR Washington lose:

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio St (if Wisconsin wins B1G)/Clemson OR Washington
  3. Clemson OR Washington/PSU (if B1G Champion)
  4. Wisconsin (if B1G Champion)/Ohio St (if PSU wins B1G)
  5. Clemson OR Washington
  6. Michigan

In this case, either Washington or Clemson (whichever team loses) would be knocked out of the playoff. This would make room for two B1G teams. If UW wins, they get the 4th spot and OSU gets the 2nd/3rd spot. If PSU wins, they get the 3rd spot, and OSU gets the 4th spot.

If Clemson and Washingotn both lose, then things are totally fucked so I won't go over that scenario. Maybe that makes room for Colorado, the BIG 12, or possibly Michigan.

So do you agree or disagree with me? Am I right about OSU/PSU or am I way off?

*Also, I am not a PSU apologist. I hate them as much as anybody, but I think they have a strong case for the CFP.

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Brandon_L

November 27th, 2016 at 3:21 PM ^

I think the committee will look at the 10 television rating for a noon game yesterday and see the dollar signs and create their own big title game by keeping OSU 2 and Michigan 3. The committee will leave the pac12, and the ACc fighting for the 4 spot. Whoever wins convincingly is in, or if they all lose we see more chaos. I think this is the year the committee proves its point that the 4 best teams not just conference champs with two losses will play for it all. The committee and everyone knows PSU is not beating Bama, neither is Wisconsin, or Washington. This comes down to Clemson winning the ACC.



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Heywood_Jablome

November 27th, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^

Committee already said last week PSU was not even close to OSU.  And OSU just added a win over #3.

Wisky/PSU winner is not getting in unless Washington/Clemson loses.

OSU is in. I don't really have a problem with that either.  They have 3 top 10 wins and 1 loss to another top 10 team.  They also have a big win over a ranked Nebraska, for what that's worth.

If OSU doesn't make it in this year, it's never going to happen for a non-conference-champion.  Not sure the committee wants to paint themselves into that corner.

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shags

November 27th, 2016 at 4:48 PM ^

If Clemson and Washington win, then it's Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Washington in some order. 

If Washington loses and Penn State wins, well, Michigan should be in.  They won't be but they should.  I don't know how the committee puts two teams that Michigan beat by 39 points and by 17 points in the playoff ahead of Michigan.  They probably will, but it would be wrong.  It wouldn't be as wrong if Wisconsin wins and Washington loses.

However, if Washington and Clemson lose, would the committee have the guts to put 3 Big Ten teams in with Alabama?  I doubt it, but the possibility exists.

To me, Ohio State is in no matter what.  And if Clemson and Washington win, there's no controversy.

Edit:  One more minor thing to add.  I think it's likely Iowa is ranked this week, which means they'll be ranked in the final poll.

 

 

 

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UMFanstuckinOhio

November 27th, 2016 at 5:26 PM ^

All one loss teams after next week are in the playoff. If one of them loses then it gets a little intresting. Who has the best resume of the 2 loss teams. To me it is simple if PSU wins BIG Michigan gets in if Wisconsin wins Wisconsin most likly gets in. The reason Wisconsin gets in is because their SOS will be much better than ours. So they would have a better SOS and a Conference Championship. If PSU wins Michigan gets in because our SOS will be almost a dead heat and 39 point beat down trumps a conference championship. So GO COLORADO and PSU!!

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Zarniwoop

November 27th, 2016 at 5:57 PM ^

There is no chance we make the playoff.

We (and the refs) gave OSU all our opportunities.

No matter who wins the conference champ game - they go. OSU MAY get to go in addition. If Clemson and Washington win, OSU gets a nice bowl game and no playoff. They just aren't good enough to overcome their performance in The Game and against PSU and against Wisconsin... MSU... etc..

But, no matter who loses or who wins - we're off to a top tier bowl game and not the playoff. My desperate hope is that the committee isn't braindead fucks and they see that without dubious officiating and an outrageous 21 point swing of turnover luck, OSU loses that game by 17-24 points. We literally beat them by 24 points without the turnovers. But, I guess all that matters is the scoreboard.

Hats off to OSU for... for... OH FUCK THEM!

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Blue Durham

November 27th, 2016 at 6:25 PM ^

So OSU, ranked #2 in the CFP rankings, beats #3 Michigan in same said rankings, will drop to #5 after the championship games? Below teams that the CFP has continually disrespected? Below teams that have played is far weaker conferences, and have far worse resumes? And ultimately, below a team with 2 losses? They wont. Book it.

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chunkums

November 27th, 2016 at 7:50 PM ^

I just posted this exact thing in the other playoff thread, but here it is again. This is where I think Michigan stands WRT its playoff status:

I think Clemson and Washington both have to lose. On Tuesday, the CFP rankings will probably look something like this:

1. Bama - Not losing the championship

2. OSU - Finished the season by beating #3

3. Clemson - Likely to beat VaTech

4. Washington - Likely to beat Colorado

5. Michigan

6. Wisconsin

7. Penn State

8. Colorado

 

I think our only shot is for either Washington or Clemson to lose AND for Penn State to win an ugly game against Wisconsin. Here are the resumes:

Colorado best wins: #24 Stanford, #22 Utah, #23 Washington State

Colorado losses: Nail-biter against #12 USC and blowout against #3 Michigan

 

Penn State best wins: Fluky win against #2 OSU, nail-biter over 8-4 Minnesota, blowout over 8-4 Iowa

Penn State losses: Blowout against #3 Michigan and nail-biter against 8-4 Pitt

 

Wisconsin best wins: Nail-biter against 7-4 LSU, nail-biter against 8-4 Iowa, nail-biter against #16 Nebraska (who is about to be unranked), win over 8-4 Minnesota

Wisconsin losses: Nail-biter against #2 OSU and nail-biter against #3 UM.

 

Michigan best wins: Nail-biter over #6 Wisconsin, blowout over #7 PSU, blowout over #9 Colorado

Michigan losses: Nail-biter against 8-4 Iowa, nail-biter against #2 OSU.

 

Breakdown: I think Wisconsin goes over Michigan if they win the B1G simply because their status as B1G champs combined with losses to #2 and #3 on the road will be hard to ignore. However, I think we could get in over the other two if you look at the entire resume. H2H blowouts are huge here, and the fact that Michigan has blown out two teams currently in the top 10 is impressive. Nevertheless, there's no guarantee if they win their conferences. We'll see whether the H2H blowout or the conference championship is more important. 

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lhglrkwg

November 27th, 2016 at 8:21 PM ^

I can't believe Penn State has a shot to go. We'd beat em by 40 again if we had the chance. If we can't go, it should sure as hell be OSU. Anybody with eyes can see the best two teams in the Big Ten played Saturday in the Shoe

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CoverZero

November 30th, 2016 at 5:00 PM ^

PSU is a bad joke.  The will get crushed in the playoffs.  Luckiest team ever due to the faulty B1G division alignment.

 

Herbstreit said today that if Wash or Clemson stumbles, then he thinks Michigan is in the best position to get in.

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