2023 preseason expectations (all FBS) REVISITED
Because Michigan is on bye week, and since there’s nothing else to talk about, I figured this was a good opportunity to revisit the composite preseason expectations that we looked at in August. Which teams have over- or under-performed what was expected of them from national outlets?
I’ll insert images of the preseason rankings for each conference in the comments, along with a few observations.
WHAT OBSERVATIONS HAVE YOU?
For reference, here are the original posts:
October 26th, 2023 at 7:48 PM ^
MSU & Rutgers have switched places, as Sparty has bottomed-out, and I’m looking forward to that big PSU-Rutgers game next month for 3rd place in the division.
Too much was expected from Illinois in the West.
October 26th, 2023 at 7:51 PM ^
Has MSU and Indiana played yet? If not that will truly be the game for the bottom of the Big Ten East!
October 26th, 2023 at 7:55 PM ^
Nope, they play 11/18 for all the stakes.
October 26th, 2023 at 8:28 PM ^
I think there was too much hope that Fickle could get Wisconsin turned around his first year. Those rankings are a bit optimistic.
Maybe too pessimistic on Rhule at Nebraska. Don't look now, but they're 4-3. If you squint hard enough you could see a path to bowl eligibility this year for the first time since 2016!
October 26th, 2023 at 8:56 PM ^
My expectations for Wisconsin plummeted after finding out what his actual plan was for the offense.
October 26th, 2023 at 9:05 PM ^
Yeah Illinois has really been a disappointment. I guess I bought into the hype 🤷
October 27th, 2023 at 1:59 AM ^
Me thinks you didn’t check your math before dropping the Penn State joke.
If one thinks Rutgers @ PSU is an equal matchup this year, that implies Rutgers is +3 over PSU on a neutral field.
PSU just lost by 8 at OSU. Implying OSU is +5 over PSU on a neutral field.
Which implies OSU is +2 over Rutgers on a neutral field.
Which implies Rutgers beats OSU by 1 in Piscataway in 9 days.
Enjoy the Buckeyes’ upcoming loss to Rutgers! 😀
October 27th, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
Nice! :-)
I wasn't considering point-scoring transitivity...just the standings: if PSU loses to Mich, Rutgers (theoretically, not necessarily practically) has the chance to give PSU its 3rd conference loss and if Rutgers loses no more than 3 they can, by tie-breaker, finish in third.
Not a prediction, just an acknowledgement that Rutgers is playing well enough that one big win can put them in the top half of the division.
October 26th, 2023 at 7:48 PM ^
Missouri has surpassed expectations, and USC (NTUSC) has been a disappointment.
The West mostly resembles the current standings, but the rankings for the bottom half were way too high.
October 26th, 2023 at 7:49 PM ^
Clemson was way over-ranked. Pitt has been the other big disappointment.
Louisville and Duke have been pleasant surprises. Even Virginia is 2-1!
October 26th, 2023 at 7:50 PM ^
Oklahoma has emerged. Iowa St is a surprising 3-1. TCU & Texas Tech were overrated.
The four new schools were expected to be in the bottom-half of the conference, which has played out because they have a combined 3-13 conference record. BYU is 2-2 but the other three are 1-11 and the only teams without 2+ conference wins.
October 26th, 2023 at 7:54 PM ^
What the hell happened to West Virginia??
October 26th, 2023 at 7:56 PM ^
WVU as gone (2-2, 4-3). Probably better than expected.
October 26th, 2023 at 9:11 PM ^
I was more implying how far they have falsince RR left and the Big East broke up and they joined the Big 12
October 26th, 2023 at 7:50 PM ^
Expectations had a clear separation between top half & bottom half, which has mostly played out. USC has already suffered two losses and has tough matchups ahead. Arizona has played well. Colorado was all the rage for a while.
October 26th, 2023 at 7:51 PM ^
Miami, Ohio, and Buffalo are tied atop the East, as was expected, and Toledo is the leader in the West.
October 26th, 2023 at 7:51 PM ^
Tulane, SMU, and UTSA are tied at 3-0, meeting expectations. South Florida has played better than expected and Charlotte hasn’t been as bad as feared. UAB & East Carolina have been disappointments.
October 26th, 2023 at 10:25 PM ^
Speaking of Tulane. I would ready an NIL package to get their QB to come to Ann Arbor next year. 4 year starter with an NFL arm
October 26th, 2023 at 7:52 PM ^
Western Kentucky has been a bit disappointing. Jacksonville St has TORN IT UP!
October 26th, 2023 at 7:52 PM ^
UNLV has exceeded expectations.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:35 AM ^
Surprised you didn't mention Boise State's disappointing season so far; at 3-4, they're trending towards their first losing season since 1997 (which, given how 1997 went for us, I'm totally cool with...)
October 27th, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
Good point. I did originally comment on Boise St, but removed it because they have only one conference loss and could possibly still finish the season that way.
October 26th, 2023 at 7:53 PM ^
James Madison has been the conference’s best. Old Dominion (3-1, 4-3) and Texas St (2-1, 5-2) have far exceeded expectations as teams in the 120s.
October 26th, 2023 at 7:53 PM ^
At least poor UMass (unanimously #133) has a win.
October 26th, 2023 at 8:33 PM ^
Not that I was really hoping for it, but I really thought that LSU would playing for a spot in the CFP this year. They're still sitting at #2 in the West, but with 2 losses there's really no path for them. Plus, they still could lose any of Bama, Florida, or TAMU.
October 26th, 2023 at 7:56 PM ^
Chuck, Buckeye or not, you are an appreciated member of this board.
October 26th, 2023 at 8:13 PM ^
Agreed. Signed in just to upvote.
October 26th, 2023 at 8:44 PM ^
I also agree.
October 26th, 2023 at 9:48 PM ^
Seconded