UM vs. Toledo pink slips

Submitted by Magnus on

Michigan's lineup has fluctuated throughout the year, and I expect that it will continue to change until Michigan plays with more consistency - which may not happen until 2009.  Note: Only players who have a viable backup will be chosen to lose their jobs. For example, Threet likely will not be chosen because Sheridan has been a complete disaster.

OFFENSIVE STARTER WHO SHOULD KEEP HIS JOB

Greg Mathews, WR.  I choose Mathews because...well...he's not horrible, despite an unnecessary unnecessary roughness call in the second half of Saturday's game.

OFFENSIVE STARTER WHO SHOULD LOSE HIS JOB

Tie: Sam McGuffie, RB and Toney Clemons, WR.  Before all the McGuffie lovers get their panties in a bunch, I think McGuffie should still be a starter - at slot receiver.  With Martavious Odoms out with an injury and Terrence Robinson seemingly headed for a redshirt, a shakeup is necessary.  Odoms has consistently been able to find soft spots in the defense from the slot position.  McGuffie has similar size and moves and would benefit from being put out into open space.  He has also shown good hands (zero drops this season) and the ability to make people miss.  When Odoms returns from his shoulder injury (presumably next week), he could move into the starting Y receiver position, forming a trio of Mathews, Odoms, and McGuffie as wide receivers.  Toney Clemons dropped two catchable balls on Saturday that led to two interceptions; on top of that, he doesn't have the speed or elusiveness to be effective in the slot.  Moving McGuffie to the slot would allow Brandon Minor (who either scores a TD or fumbles on every touch), Carlos Brown (when he returns from injury), Michael Shaw, and Kevin Grady to get touches out of the backfield.  McGuffie might be our best option at RB, but the backup RB's aren't nearly as bad as the backup slot receivers.

DEFENSIVE STARTER WHO SHOULD KEEP HIS JOB

Brandon Harrison, SS.  Harrison has been Michigan's most reliable defensive back in 2008.  And while no one seemed to play particularly well against Toledo, Harrison was a solid tackler and didn't get beaten in the passing game.  With the lack of push from the defensive line, the linebackers' inconsistency, and the cornerbacks' continued softness, there's not a lot to be excited about at this point.  But when I see #27 flash into the picture, I always feel somewhat relieved that he's going to make a solid tackle or use his sprinter's speed to chase someone down.

DEFENSIVE STARTER WHO SHOULD LOSE HIS JOB

Morgan Trent, CB.  I don't understand Morgan Trent's regression.  He had a promising season a year ago.  He supposedly put on a Barwis-fed 10 pounds and got faster.  He hits people hard.  But he continues to play really soft in coverage and he's been putting his shoulder into ballcarriers instead of wrapping them up and taking them to the ground.  The soft coverage could very well be a scheme of Scott Shafer's or it could be because Trent doesn't trust his safety help.  Either way, it's not working.  Boubacar Cissoko needs to teach Trent how to play physically.  Until Trent steps up his game, Cissoko and Donovan Warren (assuming he returns from injury next week) should be the starting corners.  Maybe a one-game benching would catch Trent's attention.

Comments

maracle

October 12th, 2008 at 3:07 PM ^

McGuffie had over 100 rushing yards, with 4.2 average. You acknowledge Brandon Minor fumbles constantly but propose him as a replacement?

As for Clemons, at least one of those interceptions was thrown to tacopants. I don't get it, he's had 7 receptions in his entire career and you think it's time to bench him already?

Magnus

October 12th, 2008 at 3:16 PM ^

Yeah.  I also acknowledged that Brandon Minor seems to score a TD whenever he's not fumbling.

Clemons got two hands on the ball.  Any player/coach will tell you that if you get two hands on a ball, you should catch it.  I admit it was a tough catch and it wouldn't have been as big of a deal if he hadn't done the same thing earlier in the game.

Also, you hit on the exact reason Clemons should be benched - he's young and only has 7 receptions.  The other three guys I proposed we put out there - Mathews, McGuffie, and Odoms - have more receptions than Clemons, and two of those guys are true freshmen.

Anonymous Coward (not verified)

October 12th, 2008 at 6:20 PM ^

you can spit out the old cliche about getting two hands on the ball.  However, it's quite easy to imagine a high velocity pass that, even with full extension, a receiver can only touch with fingertips of each hand.  He touches the ball with both hands, yet it is nearly impossible to catch.  The second of the Clemons plays was close to this (not an impossible grab, but I think you're wrong to argue that he SHOULD have caught it).

sbblue

October 12th, 2008 at 6:28 PM ^

you can spit out the old cliche about getting two hands on the ball.
However, it's quite easy to imagine a high velocity pass that, even
with full extension, a receiver can only touch with the fingertips of each
hand. He touches the ball with both hands, yet it is nearly impossible
to catch. The second of the Clemons plays was close to this (not an
impossible grab, but I think you're wrong to argue that he SHOULD have
caught it).

kgh10

October 12th, 2008 at 6:41 PM ^

This is the EXACT opposite of the argument you used saying that Threet's backwards pass to Minor was Threet's fault and that Minor shouldn't be faulted for the fumble in, I believe, the Miami game. The only difference here was that Minor had both hands around the football and then dropped it, whereas Clemons had the tip tops of his hands on the football on the 2nd Sheridan INT. The 2nd INT was mostly Sheridan's fault. Clemons is playing out of position in the Slot, even if he has trained there this year. He's naturally an outside receiver and he's filling in for Odoms. You can't bench a guy who isn't really a starter.

Also, Minor is a chronic fumbler. There's no way around it. He was lucky it wasn't lost an inch before it did. He was careless with the football and the defenders helmet didn't even have to come in contact with the ball and jarr it loose, he just had to hit Minor (on the opposite side of the ball, no less) for it to fall out. You say hes a playmaker or fumbler when he gets the ball, but he's a playmaker because of the situations the offense (RR & McGee) put him in, not because he's supremely awesome and can MAKE plays when there aren't any (like Odoms has been able to do for example). There's a big difference. He's much more of a liability than any supposed playmaking ability can make up for.

Magnus

October 12th, 2008 at 8:22 PM ^

I said that Threet and Minor should share the blame for the backwards pass/fumble in the Notre Dame game.  Threet threw it too quickly and he threw it backwards; Minor should have caught the ball.  Please don't put words in my mouth.

I agree that the second interception was partially, maybe even mostly, Sheridan's fault, but Clemons still should have caught it.

You certainly can bench a guy who isn't really a starter.  Take out Clemons.  Put somebody else in.  There.  He's benched.  It's not hard.

You're vastly misinterpreting Minor's role in the plays he's made, especially in comparison to Odoms.  So Minor just happens to be in the game when Magee calls a good play?  Is that what you're saying?  They must not call good plays when McGuffie/Grady/Shaw are in?  But yes, Odoms completely creates big plays himself when he runs to an open spot on the field and has the ball thrown to him.  In case you don't remember, Odoms had 5 catches for 7 yards in the first game of the season.  That's not exactly indicative of "making plays."

Minor has made a big play in every single game, I believe, except for the Notre Dame game.  If you say he's a chronic fumbler because he's fumbled in almost every game, then you also have to admit that he's a chronic playmaker.

West Texas Blue

October 12th, 2008 at 3:13 PM ^

Clemons isn't a slot receiver; he is a split end receiver but is playing slot this year due to lack of depth and injuries. Next year he'll be playing at split end only. He'll have to do until the new recruits get in and T-rob gets healthy (prolly to be redshirted).

I didn't see the game, but I expected at least one Minor fumble, and sure enough, when I read a recap of the game, he came through with a fumble. He has been a tremendous disappointment; I rather see Shaw and Grady get carries over Minor.

West Texas Blue

October 12th, 2008 at 4:43 PM ^

We're putting split ends at slot because we have no depth and Odoms and T-Rob are injured.  With all the problems our offense has position wise, we have to move people around just to fill position responsibilities.  This offense requires a slot receiver, so hence Clemons was moved to slot, which he also ran throughout the spring.

Okay, yeah Minor's fumble wasn't lost, but once again the ball popped out again.  McGuffie's fundamentals are better and he hasn't fumbled once all year long.  Minor will get some PT this year, but once Rich Rod's recruits come in next year, it will be the end for Minor. Your statement says Minor either fumbles or scores a TD when he get a touch; considering our offense is rarely in opponent's side of the field and tends to gain zero or negative yards on a good percentage of plays, I rather not take that risk with Minor.

Magnus

October 12th, 2008 at 5:12 PM ^

That's my point - Minor has been more of a big play guy.  Even though he has fumbled frequently, it shouldn't be expected that the number of fumbles will continue.  He hasn't always been a notorious fumbler.  And who knows?  Maybe his number of big plays is just coincidental, too.  But if your offense is failing anyway, I think you should put in a high risk/high reward guy.  They need a spark, and even though McGuffie has been solid, I wouldn't exactly say he's been sparking the offense the last couple weeks. 

joeyb

October 12th, 2008 at 5:01 PM ^

Magnus, I hope you are joking (can't tell in text). They reviewed it, but didn't have indisputable evidence to overturn it. He was hit on the opposite side of the ball and it popped out without any one touching it. He should have been credited with a fumble and Matthews should have been credited with a fumble recovery and a TD.

Magnus

October 12th, 2008 at 5:16 PM ^

What did I say that could be a joke?  The play was ruled a TD.  By definition, it wasn't a fumble, unless you also think somebody spiking the ball in the end zone is also a fumble.

I got roundly lambasted when I implied that Minor's fumble against Utah shouldn't really count against him, since his forearm hitting the ground should have ruled him down.  The majority of people said "The refs called it a fumble, so it was a fumble and it's Minor's fault."  Whatever.  But those same people can't say "Minor fumbled against Toledo."  By their logic, the refs called it a touchdown, so it was a touchdown.

joeyb

October 12th, 2008 at 6:02 PM ^

It may not count as a fumble in stats, but he was hit and lost control of the ball. We are talking about his inability to maintain control of the ball and that is the perfect example. If it had been anywhere else on the field it would have been a fumble. Just because it didn't count against his stats doesn't mean that the is good at holding onto the ball.

I only asked if you were joking because I couldn't tell if there was sarcasm in there or not.

kgh10

October 12th, 2008 at 6:47 PM ^

Actually, people were saying the fumble vs. Utah was a fumble because the ball was loose before his arm hit the ground, not just because the refs ruled it a fumble. The ground alone did not cause that fumble if you watch it closely, it was already coming out.

mth822

October 12th, 2008 at 3:15 PM ^

A Minor/McGuffie combo would be ideal. But Minor fumbles. You need to stop there and say to yourself,"Sadly, I cannot start a fumbler." McGuffie got rocked by Singer, the Beastmasters son, and STILL held onto to the FLIPPING football. He starts, in comparison to the stats of the year by the other backs, on that play alone. Sam, on one play showed me something huge. He waited for the hole to open up and cut it up field for a nice gain. That is a freshman learning the speed of the college game, the blocking and when to pick your moment for burst. That is teaching being translated into learning which is all you ask for. He does the fundamental aspects, like HOLDING ONTO TO THE FOOTBALL, better than his contemporaries. Sorry he starts and deserves even more touches. HIs burst, when Sheridan was in, was SICK. He showed me something Saturday. Sam's mentally tougher than the other backs in my opinion.

mth822

October 12th, 2008 at 3:37 PM ^

  1. There's just something about the guy. He's 185 and plays bigger and holds onto the ball. Minor is probably stronger and yet plays small on occasions. And he fumbles. Shaw is the speedster whose body needs bulk to handle beating. Jackson/McGee/Rodriguez have stuck by McGuffie and I think it's a good sign for any recruit. 
  2. I also though Sheridan played, well, better. He was hot with the first throw that led a to pic and then too high with the second one. But he played A TON better. His throw over the middle to Sam was wobbly but it got there. I think he's refocused and believes in himself more. I see positives in his play. The second pic was in my opinion both their faults. Let me say this, I had a coach who used to say,"If you have a route and youre running it and the ball is high and behind you, don't just throw two hands up there and let the thing be deflected into the secondary. Try to one hand bat it down into the direction your moving or deflect it so it lands in front on you." Now, given the rate at which these passes happen, this is a difficult task. But good receivers make catches off of badly thrown balls. You keep trying no matter what because there is never a perfect situation. Overall Sheridan gave me the warm fuzzy in spite of the two pics. Clemons has the physical tools but mentally it is not translating. Alot of these guys think taking ownership of the team and season is just physiological. It's more mental and they will one day realize that.

Magnus

October 12th, 2008 at 3:52 PM ^

  1. I'm not arguing with you.  If we had viable receivers, I'd say McGuffie should start over Minor.  But we don't.  We have a bunch of serviceable-to-good RB's and a mish-mash of receivers.  Some are injured (Hemingway, Odoms, Robinson), some aren't good (Savoy, Clemons), some are unproven (Stonum, Rogers), and one is pretty good (Mathews).  You need to get the best guys on the field.  Minor is a better RB than Clemons is a slot.
  2. Sheridan looks afraid.  He doesn't want to do anything but throw hitches.  The only reason he was able to hit McGuffie was that he knew Toledo was in a three-deep prevent defense, McGuffie could beat his guy, and Sheridan could fit it in front of the safeties.

mth822

October 12th, 2008 at 4:05 PM ^

Hmmmm you do raise some interesting strategical possibilities, given the current rotation. It would catch people off guard as well to see McGuffie in a slot. Or to line him up in the backfield and then move him out. Not a bad idea though.

Yeah I just thought Sheridan looked better. Better is progress and that is good. Small improvements are wins for this season.  

MERCURYHAZE

October 12th, 2008 at 4:22 PM ^

I agree with everything you said here. We need to use McGuffie more like Reggie Bush and get him into open space and up the seams in the middle of the field, i.e. his late reception over the middle against Toledo and his t.d. reception over the middle against ND. Trent has been horrible this year and his tackling has been atrocious. Other than a missed tackle on a bubble screen, Cissoko played GREAT yesterday and overshadowed Trent as a true freshman in his first game. We have a pair of good ones in him and Warren.

Anonymous Coward (not verified)

October 12th, 2008 at 5:27 PM ^

McGuffie has been the one and only bright spot for this under achieving team. Him in the slot would limit his touches during the game. At RB he will get at least 15 touches and make a difference. He has in every game but either the defense, the QB, Clemons/Shaw, or the O-line have lost it for us. RB is the one position where McGuffie (I hate to say it as a freshman), our most valuable player, can make the biggest impact on the game. Clemons blows and should be benched...period.

michiganclassics

October 12th, 2008 at 5:28 PM ^

While the idea of moving McGuffie to slot sounds good, at this point I think it's too late. Hasn't he taken all/most of his reps at running back? I don't think he can learn the position in a week.

Magnus

October 12th, 2008 at 5:32 PM ^

I don't think it would be as difficult as you think.  He plays in the slot sometimes, anyway.  And Rodriguez has said that in his offense, the RB's should be able to play slot and the slots should be able to play WR.  I'm sure McGuffie wouldn't immediately know the position inside-out, but I still think he could give us some quality snaps.

NorCalGoBloo

October 12th, 2008 at 6:58 PM ^

You can't make your starting running back be guys who fumble the ball on 5-20% of their touches in a scheme that runs 60% of the time. Do the math, we can't lose the only sure-handed running back in McGuffie to the slot, at least permanently. I wouldn't mind mixing it up every now and then though.

Anonymous Coward (not verified)

October 12th, 2008 at 7:13 PM ^

I agree, Blue needs to make some changes, esp if this offense is all about "getting your best athletes in space."  Mcguffie/Odoms/Matthews with a healthy does of Koger at TE is the ticket.  Minor/Grady/Shaw have shown some life as RBs.  I also like the idea of Trent seeing the bench so Booba and Warren can start.  What about the train wreck that is the O-line?

Magnus

October 12th, 2008 at 8:10 PM ^

Even though Minor's fumbling problem is a serious issue, so is not scoring touchdowns.  I sincerely doubt that Minor's fumble-to-touch ratio would remain as high if he were given more carries.  But when you only get about two touches a game and one of them is a fumble, it's hard to a) make that ratio go down very quickly and b) get into the flow of a game.

Anonymous Coward (not verified)

October 12th, 2008 at 7:02 PM ^

Thought the exact same thing yesterday. He's best in space. Tired of seeing him go nowhere from the backfield. Who's the RB though? Minor is hurt now, right? Everyone else has severe fumble-itis. Tough call.

Jivas

October 12th, 2008 at 8:11 PM ^

I think it makes more sense to "move" him to the slot than McGuffie, since the staff had already made a personnel decision that he'd be a good fit there and since there seems to be a question about Shaw's ability to take the pounding at RB (whereas McGuffie is taking 25 touches a game and keeps on ticking).

I would like to see more of Minor, but it seems as if constant injuries are the primary cause for his lack of action. I also agree that his "fumble" this past weekend *is* meaningful - regardless of whether or not it was technically a fumble, he got hit and lost control of the football before hitting the ground, and it's reasonable to consider the data point as a fumble when considering his propensity to lose the football.

I'd like to see more of Brown as well, but alas he can't stay healthy either.

Magnus

October 12th, 2008 at 8:30 PM ^

I haven't seen enough of Shaw to know whether he can catch the ball well or not.  That's why I suggested McGuffie's move, because he's caught everything they've thrown at him.  But yes, Shaw might be a better option than Clemons, too.

Here's my point about Minor: Yes, he's fumbled the ball.  But every running back goes on streaks.  Mike Hart touched the ball 33 times in the Capital One Bowl and fumbled twice, even though it had been 500 carries or something since the last time he lost a fumble.  Minor has fumbled a few times early in this year, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he will continue to fumble 25% of the time.  Like I said in another post, when you only get one or two touches a game, it's hard to make that percentage go down and it's hard to get into the flow of a game.

Anonymous Coward (not verified)

October 12th, 2008 at 8:12 PM ^

the sam mcguffie idea is good...i havent been impressed wit his running as i thought i was gonna, but he has good hands....he set up that field goal (which kc lopata should be shot for) wit his good hands....good ass hands...and he still has a chance to run on all those dam screens they do anyway...i dont think any offensive starter should keep their jobs...except odoms...and trent needs to be benched for the rest of the year because he is absolutly ass...every pass play to whoever number 1 on toledo was was his fault....he gets so many tackles cuz he lets everyone catch the dam ball...i think kc lopata should lose his job...he is awful...boubacar and donovan need to start....for the rest of the year.... as does stevie brown

Ernis

October 12th, 2008 at 8:30 PM ^

"You touch it you catch it"

Worked for Lombardi. Lombardi was successful. Therefore, the statement works.

As for Morgan Trent: "The soft coverage could very well be a scheme of Scott Shafer's"
On the contrary, I think Shafer's scheme is restricted by Trent's lack of ability. I've been calling for his dismissal since our last Rose Bowl appearance... finally, those who say I am an idiot for doing so are starting to pipe down. Cissoko and Warren FTW

ShockFX

October 12th, 2008 at 8:55 PM ^

Hart fumbled 2 times in 33 carries, or 6%. Minor fumbles at a 20% clip over the past 6 games. That's not even counting past years. If you've watched the games, you'd see that Rich Rod has played Minor UNTIL HE FUMBLES. Therefore, he's giving him all the opportunity he needs to show he can hold onto the ball. After he drops it, he's pulled. This is not unreasonable in any way, shape, or form. If Minor doesn't fumble for a game he'll be given a bit of leash. Since he hasn't made it through one game without fumbling all year except Miami (I think) how can anyone argue this isn't fair?

Magnus

October 12th, 2008 at 9:12 PM ^

I have watched all the games from start to finish, except for the Wisconsin game (did he fumble in that game?).  I'm just saying, if Hart was yanked after that first fumble, would we have won that game?  Would he have been destined to fumble on his next competitive carry, anyway, due to fate catching up to him?  It's completely possible that Minor could go the next year and a half without fumbling. 

Minor has the best combination of size, speed, and power on the team.  He also has pretty good hands.  You can't completely eliminate him from your gameplan.

ShockFX

October 12th, 2008 at 9:28 PM ^

Wait, you're comparing Rich Rod yanking Minor, a player with a history of fumbling, and also has a  rep as someone that can't hold on in practice, to the possibility of pulling Mike Hart after his fumble in the Citrus Bowl, which was his first in like 625 carries?  Really?

Edit:

"It's completely possible that Minor could go the next year and a half without fumbling. "

Which is why Rich Rod plays him each game until he fumbles.  I've been telling you he's a fumbler since Utah.  Why do you keep fighting it?

Magnus

October 12th, 2008 at 9:28 PM ^

Obviously, I'm exaggerating slightly.  I know Hart was exceptional at protecting the ball.  The point is, do you honestly think Minor will continue to fumble on 25% of his carries?  It's practically impossible that he will.  But if he doesn't get the chance to play, then we won't know.

ShockFX

October 12th, 2008 at 9:45 PM ^

Holy shit, YES.  Minor (rough) cumulative fumble percentages by game.

 Utah: 20%

Miami: 16%

ND: 24%

Wisconsin: 22%

Illinois:24%

Toledo: 25%

So yes, it's fucking obvious that he can't hold onto the ball and is fumbling on 25% of his carries, and he gets a chance to play EACH GAME.  What part of this is not making any sense?  Are you saying that, even after 6 games where he's fumbled 1/4 or 1/5 carries, suddenly playing him more in each game will make him stop fumbling?  That we should wait until he fumbles 3 or 4 times in a game on 20 carries to conclusively "know" that Minor will fumble 25% of the time?  Isn't 4/5 (Threet screen pass and goal line fumble are debateably 4 and 5, but you have to attribute at least ONE to Minor) Fumbles on 20 carries enough?  He fumbled a lot last year, he fumbles a lot in practice by all accounts.  HE CAN'T HOLD ON TO THE FUCKING BALL!

Magnus

October 12th, 2008 at 11:56 PM ^

Your implication is that Minor cannot recover, that it's a terminal disease.  You don't think any RB out there has ever had a case of fumblitis and lived to tell about it? 

Go check out Peyton Manning's interception total from his rookie year.  If you just went by that year, you'd think he should have been benched for life.  Now he's one of the best QB's in the history of the game.  Turnovers come and go.

ShockFX

October 13th, 2008 at 12:19 AM ^

My implication is that, through 6 games, he's shown no sign of recovering.  He's played until he fumbles, and he tends to fumble before his 5th touch.  Why is this so complicated?  You are unreal man, just simply unreal.

Magnus

October 13th, 2008 at 6:18 AM ^

Dude, it's not complicated.  I understand your point.  He fumbles frequently, which is bad.  I get it.  I just think that the risk is worth the reward when the majority of our offensive players can't catch the ball, can't break tackles, can't block, can't throw, etc.  We can have differing opinions.  I'm okay with that.  Don't act like I'm the idiot.

West Texas Blue

October 12th, 2008 at 9:28 PM ^

Magnus, you just have to let it go. Minor will see a limited role this year, and next year, once Rich Rod's first round of recruits come in, Minor is pretty much done. You can keep bringing it up, keep debating on why he should get more PT, but I'm sorry dude, it's the beginning of the end for Minor. McGuffie is our starting back, and next year we'll have plenty of guys for our slot WRs. I had high hopes for Minor, but his fumbling problems are just too much to overcome.

ShockFX

October 12th, 2008 at 10:13 PM ^

This completely outweighs his fumble against Utah, his fumble against ND, his fumble against Illinois.  Also, he fumbled before the goaline against Toledo, not his touchdown in my book.  Wisconsin any RB would have scored that.  I'll give him the Miami TD, but McGuffie moved them all the way down the field on that one.  Also, how can you think his fumble ratio will go down with more carries, but his TD ratio will stay the same?

Magnus

October 12th, 2008 at 10:22 PM ^

Obviously, you haven't read all my posts because this is what I said below:

"He hasn't always been a notorious fumbler.  And who knows?  Maybe his number of big plays is just coincidental, too.  But if your offense is failing anyway, I think you should put in a high risk/high reward guy."

You can't automatically assume that any running back would have made that run against Wisconsin.  It's not like it was a 1-yard TD with a gaping hole.  He had to hit the hole, choose whether to cut toward the middle or the sideline, and outrun one or two guys. 

Also, your book doesn't count.  In the history book, Minor's one touch against Toledo was a 27 yard TD catch, not a fumble.